[XMR] Monero Speculation

[amaral1977]

What do you make of the comments voiced here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/6wxh7e/why_i_sold_mine_now/

Are you still expecting 200 by Oct, 1K by March?

Seems very bullish

Those comments are predicated on the notion that all crypto are created equal endowed by their creator with certain natural rights which are common to all but this is not true. In fact all crypto are created very unequal, some endowed with marvelous potential which has yet to be realized, others with Ponzi fatal flaws, many of which have already fallen by the wayside. Monero will not fall by the wayside, because of the capabilities of its community of developers and supporters. Even when a serious flaw in Monero has appeared in the past it is always been dealt with in a disciplined and orderly manner, allowing Monero to overcome hazards which would have rapidly strangled any lesser coin in its crib.

Today 40 XMR make 1 BTC, but when the economic potential of Monero is fully realized 40 BTC may make 1 XMR.  "People" may not care about privacy, although they are fools if so, but they do care about fungibility, whether they know it or not. They also care about extortion, taxation, theft, embezzlement, and kidnapping. Monero protects you against these things while Bitcoin does not.

If I were to produce a physical Bitcoin today the obverse would bear a vivid image of Cazes hanging by his neck in a Bangkok jail cell. So, yes, I am expecting 200 to 300 this  year simply on the basis of speculation discounting future fundamentals, and 1000 sometime next year on the basis of the emergence of a new functioning darknet economy, and furthermore expect fomo to rapidly push that up to 2500 before that bubble pops.

You certainly are eloquent my friend.

Thanks for taking the time to write back to me

I´m very ignorant in this crypto world, although this one and a half year journey as thought me so much. If i had to choose one "new" word or concept i aquired it´s fungibility. It´s so important and so interesting. I can say i aquired it in this thread. so thanx for the the posters who take their time to atually share knowlegde here.

[Surging Chaos]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I'm sure there are those who hold enormous sums of XMR out there, but I don't see how XMR billionaires can happen until Monero starts to approach a market cap in the hundreds of billions.

[hrbt]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I'm sure there are those who hold enormous sums of XMR out there, but I don't see how XMR billionaires can happen until Monero starts to approach a market cap in the hundreds of billions.

hehe there will be many millionares

new young people with ideas and knowledge in crypto

[Nathan047]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

[Febo]

Short term predictions before the Bithumb event?

Time to the next Bithumb event is getting really short  https://timee.io/20170901T1500    

22 hours to go!!!

[CTTE]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The growth in crypto prices has become much like most other current technology growth in that it is exponential in nature.  So, in many ways we become very short sited and conservative when we look at where we expect prices to be in the near future because based on our experience with most things, we expect grow to be linear. The growth curve goes parabolic and you may have started with $3,000 investment which has maybe grown to 30 times what you invested up to $90,000.  Now if that trend continues which I don't doubt that it will and it grows another 30 times you have $2.7M!  There are many here who have invested anywhere from $10K to $?00K and from an early stage on held onto that stash.  

It is totally conceivable that some are holding 100K to 500k xmr but because it's Monero we can't tell that for sure but, if it were true, tell me how long before that adds up to $1B?

The point is this is exponential in nature NOT linear.

PS. the numbers are examples, I didn't pull actual growth rates.

EDIT: spelling

[SilArt]

The more I read about the crypto, the more I realize that it's about trust. Pick a project with very good tech basis (like Monero) and hold for many years and believe it it. And you will get rewarded.

Who needs zcash privacy when we have monero?

[jwinterm]

I doubt anyone at this point is holding more than 100-200k XMR, in which case the price would have to rise to $5-10k per coin to make them a paper billionaire.

[babygun]

Just bought my first monero after reading all the positive comments on here  .
But also looked up some information about monero and it has some strong and unique features

[aminorex]

 The dominant theory of currency adoption holds that the embedded social value of the network grows according to a modified Metcalf's law,  v(n) :: n ln n, and the reasoning is that the social value of a network increases with each added link between nodes (n), but that the values of randomly selected links within the network follow a Zipf distribution (hence, "modified").  Now the embedded social value of a communication or transactional network may vary with many other factors, so this is by no means the whole story, but with enough smoothing and compensation for event-driven price movement, the modified Metcalf rule does a fair job of predicting the value of Bitcoin, and I think it will play a significant role in the price evolution of Monero as well.

What tends to go through quasi linear, parabolic, exponential and even super-exponential phases is the adoption curve, i.e. The growth rate of the "n" value in modified Metcalf.  There was a really fun paper out of Princeton a couple of years ago which used epidemiologic models to estimate Facebook's growth curve in this way.

In technology, these "epidemics" tend to follow a series of hype cycles, and when the growth ratios of each cycle start to decline rather than increase, you know that adoption is approaching a saturation point, and super-exponential appreciation is unlikely unless some limiting factor is removed.  I consider that Bitcoin may be tapering it's successive cycle ratios, while those of Monero are likely to expand for a while yet.  The super-exponential growth phase of Monero remains in the future.  Past growth will be negligible in comparison to future growth.

[timvim]

Just bought my first monero after reading all the positive comments on here  .
But also looked up some information about monero and it has some strong and unique features

I don't think you will regret it ever. As I have said before, Monero belongs in the #3 market cap spot. My best guesstimate is $1000 by the end of 2018. We will se

[CTTE]

I doubt anyone at this point is holding more than 100-200k XMR, in which case the price would have to rise to $5-10k per coin to make them a paper billionaire.

Nobody here wants to predict that kind of price but all I will say is that when I was buying BTC at $225, there was no way I would have said we would see $4747.54 (current price) per BTC... I couldn't even imagine it. And I would have been mocked for calling out a price like that with no evidence. Now, we see the predictions of BTC at $10k-15k-100k even $500k a piece and if we believe that Monero will take 3rd, 4th or 5th in marketcap, what price would it need to be?

It's an interesting question where it will be, in even a relatively short time period i.e. 2-5 years.

[ArticMine]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

[jwinterm]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

Korea likes to wash trade shitcoins?

[Hueristic]

I think I'm gonna start using Gingers Bananas afa calling it, Does anyone have a clue why everytime it starts to take off it gets suppressed? you would think on these type spikes shorters would get crushed and fuel the spike but the bears seem to keep the lid on. Or am I missing something?

And there's not much time left to join!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1971415.0

'suppression' talk just makes you sound like a historian conspiracy theorist.  I prefer to say that redistribution into stronger hands is the inevitable consequence of natural profit-taking.  I will admit that I own considerably fewer xmr today than I did 2 years ago, the more fool I, and I would have thought mine to be among the strongest hands out there.  

I have tried to get them all back with market making, but the heavy bias of the jump component to the upside and the relative neutrality of the diffusion component has made that very, very difficult to do without an awfully good timing indicator - better than anything I have been using, certainly.  I need a little RangeDriver sitting on my shoulder.

Then there are cases like Risto....again, his should have been among the strongest of hands, but poor risk management devastated him (from what little I have heard of that conflicted drama).

And let's not forget those like TheKoziTwo, who have top-icked the spikes and scooped up in size when they were cheap, which also has a 'supression' effect (but really is just good market-making taken to a superlative extreme).

It is generally healthier to think of the market as being right by definition - like God, in that sense -  even when it changes it's mind faster than a rooster on acid.  When mcap is over 2bn and there is no facility for naked shorts it really does take both massive cojones and exquisite finesse to suppress and scoop profitably.  I only wish I had such powers.  I am happy, OTOH, to have higher morals - or at least enough respect for the difficulty and risk of the process to simulate higher morals.

As usual you articulate my thinking far more eloquently than I ever could, thanks for your thoughts on this and I agree it's nigh impossible to get back in at the point you left unless your a whale doing the manipulation or a seer!

The more I read about the crypto, the more I realize that it's about trust. Pick a project with very good tech basis (like Monero) and hold for many years and believe it it. And you will get rewarded.

Who needs zcash privacy when we have monero?

And this cannot be stressed enough with market caps this high it has to be Trustless as well as Decentralized! and fungability is just the Icing that makes this coin the crown jewel. When the rest of the world understands this there really will be no unreachable cap.

Just bought my first monero after reading all the positive comments on here  .
But also looked up some information about monero and it has some strong and unique features

Welcome and don't let the market scare you into dumping those coins, be here for the long haul to get rewarded.

I doubt anyone at this point is holding more than 100-200k XMR, in which case the price would have to rise to $5-10k per coin to make them a paper billionaire.

I propose a tontine for holders of over 100k, who are willing to dox themselves.

I learned a new word today!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/09/28/this-sleazy-and-totally-illegal-savings-scheme-may-be-the-future-of-retirement/

[Globb0]

[SilArt]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

Very surprising, never heard of that exchange. I will check it. Possible manipulated volume numbers?

[PoorLad]

Amazing how well this coin keep its price after such a climb.

The Korean "challenge" is not over yet?

[explorer]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

[JohnDoe3490]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

That would be quite a call. You don't see a dip in price or a correction. IT was quite a big rise from 50 --> 150ish.