[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

 The dominant theory of currency adoption holds that the embedded social value of the network grows according to a modified Metcalf's law,  v(n) :: n ln n, and the reasoning is that the social value of a network increases with each added link between nodes (n), but that the values of randomly selected links within the network follow a Zipf distribution (hence, "modified").  Now the embedded social value of a communication or transactional network may vary with many other factors, so this is by no means the whole story, but with enough smoothing and compensation for event-driven price movement, the modified Metcalf rule does a fair job of predicting the value of Bitcoin, and I think it will play a significant role in the price evolution of Monero as well.

What tends to go through quasi linear, parabolic, exponential and even super-exponential phases is the adoption curve, i.e. The growth rate of the "n" value in modified Metcalf.  There was a really fun paper out of Princeton a couple of years ago which used epidemiologic models to estimate Facebook's growth curve in this way.

In technology, these "epidemics" tend to follow a series of hype cycles, and when the growth ratios of each cycle start to decline rather than increase, you know that adoption is approaching a saturation point, and super-exponential appreciation is unlikely unless some limiting factor is removed.  I consider that Bitcoin may be tapering it's successive cycle ratios, while those of Monero are likely to expand for a while yet.  The super-exponential growth phase of Monero remains in the future.  Past growth will be negligible in comparison to future growth.

[timvim]

Just bought my first monero after reading all the positive comments on here  .
But also looked up some information about monero and it has some strong and unique features

I don't think you will regret it ever. As I have said before, Monero belongs in the #3 market cap spot. My best guesstimate is $1000 by the end of 2018. We will se

[CTTE]

I doubt anyone at this point is holding more than 100-200k XMR, in which case the price would have to rise to $5-10k per coin to make them a paper billionaire.

Nobody here wants to predict that kind of price but all I will say is that when I was buying BTC at $225, there was no way I would have said we would see $4747.54 (current price) per BTC... I couldn't even imagine it. And I would have been mocked for calling out a price like that with no evidence. Now, we see the predictions of BTC at $10k-15k-100k even $500k a piece and if we believe that Monero will take 3rd, 4th or 5th in marketcap, what price would it need to be?

It's an interesting question where it will be, in even a relatively short time period i.e. 2-5 years.

[ArticMine]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

[jwinterm]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

Korea likes to wash trade shitcoins?

[Hueristic]

I think I'm gonna start using Gingers Bananas afa calling it, Does anyone have a clue why everytime it starts to take off it gets suppressed? you would think on these type spikes shorters would get crushed and fuel the spike but the bears seem to keep the lid on. Or am I missing something?

And there's not much time left to join!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1971415.0

'suppression' talk just makes you sound like a historian conspiracy theorist.  I prefer to say that redistribution into stronger hands is the inevitable consequence of natural profit-taking.  I will admit that I own considerably fewer xmr today than I did 2 years ago, the more fool I, and I would have thought mine to be among the strongest hands out there.  

I have tried to get them all back with market making, but the heavy bias of the jump component to the upside and the relative neutrality of the diffusion component has made that very, very difficult to do without an awfully good timing indicator - better than anything I have been using, certainly.  I need a little RangeDriver sitting on my shoulder.

Then there are cases like Risto....again, his should have been among the strongest of hands, but poor risk management devastated him (from what little I have heard of that conflicted drama).

And let's not forget those like TheKoziTwo, who have top-icked the spikes and scooped up in size when they were cheap, which also has a 'supression' effect (but really is just good market-making taken to a superlative extreme).

It is generally healthier to think of the market as being right by definition - like God, in that sense -  even when it changes it's mind faster than a rooster on acid.  When mcap is over 2bn and there is no facility for naked shorts it really does take both massive cojones and exquisite finesse to suppress and scoop profitably.  I only wish I had such powers.  I am happy, OTOH, to have higher morals - or at least enough respect for the difficulty and risk of the process to simulate higher morals.

As usual you articulate my thinking far more eloquently than I ever could, thanks for your thoughts on this and I agree it's nigh impossible to get back in at the point you left unless your a whale doing the manipulation or a seer!

The more I read about the crypto, the more I realize that it's about trust. Pick a project with very good tech basis (like Monero) and hold for many years and believe it it. And you will get rewarded.

Who needs zcash privacy when we have monero?

And this cannot be stressed enough with market caps this high it has to be Trustless as well as Decentralized! and fungability is just the Icing that makes this coin the crown jewel. When the rest of the world understands this there really will be no unreachable cap.

Just bought my first monero after reading all the positive comments on here  .
But also looked up some information about monero and it has some strong and unique features

Welcome and don't let the market scare you into dumping those coins, be here for the long haul to get rewarded.

I doubt anyone at this point is holding more than 100-200k XMR, in which case the price would have to rise to $5-10k per coin to make them a paper billionaire.

I propose a tontine for holders of over 100k, who are willing to dox themselves.

I learned a new word today!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/09/28/this-sleazy-and-totally-illegal-savings-scheme-may-be-the-future-of-retirement/

[Globb0]

[SilArt]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

Very surprising, never heard of that exchange. I will check it. Possible manipulated volume numbers?

[PoorLad]

Amazing how well this coin keep its price after such a climb.

The Korean "challenge" is not over yet?

[explorer]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

[JohnDoe3490]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

That would be quite a call. You don't see a dip in price or a correction. IT was quite a big rise from 50 --> 150ish.

[explorer]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I'm sure there are those who hold enormous sums of XMR out there, but I don't see how XMR billionaires can happen until Monero starts to approach a market cap in the hundreds of billions.

hehe there will be many millionares

new young people with ideas and knowledge in crypto

8K Monero and you are already a millionaire.  This is a coin that spent looong periods at well below a dollar.  There are a lot of XMR millionaires already. 


Damn.  I didn't factor all those boating accidents.  OK.  So in a few years, we may see one or two millionaires.  IF they choose to show themselves 

[explorer]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

That would be quite a call. You don't see a dip in price or a correction. IT was quite a big rise from 50 --> 150ish.

Of course there will be corrections.  But a 3X move in crypto can't be called big.  It took a whole week.  What do you call the 10X, 20X + moves?
 Bitcoin 100X in 2013
Monero  ~20X in 2016 (~10x so far 2017, looking like that can be made into 20+ pretty soon).
ETH whatever astronomical rise it had in 2016-2017
You think its all over?  Shut off the lights, there's nothing left to see in this space? 
S p e c u l a t i o n .

[thoth-Atlantian]

So close to pumping again,

This slow meandering rise then almost flat-lines.

Then..... KAPOW

I reckon its coming in next 12 hours.

[JohnDoe3490]

So close to pumping again,

This slow meandering rise then almost flat-lines.

Then..... KAPOW

I reckon its coming in next 12 hours.

Yea, been consolidating at this level for a while now.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Damn.  I didn't factor all those boating accidents.

There was actually only one accident. We all decided to have a Monero meet-up on a small fishing boat in treacherous waters. Many fortunes were lost that day.

[thoth-Atlantian]

is it still worth to buy monero?

Hell yes,

You can see whats coming in the charts. even as a week long trade will be much profit

[Hueristic]

is it still worth to buy monero?

I buy a small amount every week no matter where the price is and haven't regretted it yet. Only wish I had been doing it sooner (as in before alphabay).

[KeyJockey]

Damn.  I didn't factor all those boating accidents.

There was actually only one accident. We all decided to have a Monero meet-up on a small fishing boat in treacherous waters. Many fortunes were lost that day.

I know, right?  And we all decided to bring all our paper wallets with us out there on the boat that day...?  WTF were we thinking?  

P.S. Oh, I know... must've been all the drugs, since Monero users are well known as just all a bunch of druggies, LOL... yeah, that's it 

P.P.S. Thanks to RangeDriver for answering my "what's gonna be the top?" post a few pages back today.  Can't hardly believe it'll be true, but we'll see in a few days/weeks I guess.  Strapped in for the ride, popcorn ready!

[birr]

Damn.  I didn't factor all those boating accidents.

There was actually only one accident. We all decided to have a Monero meet-up on a small fishing boat in treacherous waters. Many fortunes were lost that day.

To think it all started with a three hour tour!
Sung to the tune of the Gilligan's Island theme song:

The weather started getting rough,
But the tiny ship was tossed.
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
Monero would be lost.
Monero would be lost.