[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

You think a slow bleed under 80?

I don't know how depressed the market will be.  I don't know if ETH will save itself with a technical hail Mary, or by delaying the fork - or even experience a catastrophic failure (not likely, that).  We might just be seeing a healthy retrace in the broad sector, which will reverse on good sector news of some sort, for all I know.  Independent Catalonia could adopt Bitcoin as hard money. The next ICO could be so compelling that Soros goes all-in.  Predictions are hard, especially ones about the future.

What I do know with empirical certainty is that XMR is selling for half of what I sold it for on the last spike, so it feels plenty cheap to me.  

What I do know by force of market logic is that DNM demand will eventually (certainly less than a year, maybe less than 6 months) force a massive repricing.  I want to be holding big bags at that time.

After that... well I am still waiting for the demographic multiple slide to kick in.  It is late already.  When that happens we should see capital flight demand ramp up, and the biggest Monero bubble of all. The economic world around us will look pretty bad then.  Clearly it is not yet time, but it remains inevitable: Unless human immortality arrives to save the boomers, or robots create a new demand source, we are looking at a hard bottom in u.s. equities in 2024-2025, with SPX P/E in the 4-6 range.

Historical comparables to the coming secular bear are: 1965-1982, 17 years; 1915-1921, 6 years. (The 1929-1932 bear was not a generational one, so it is not comparable. It was more like the 2007-2009 crisis, leverage and policy driven. WW2 masked a secular bottom with total war, so that one is inadmissible.) We only have 7-8 years left before the bottom, so it should turn soon-ish, but central banks pumping cocaine into the veins of the economy could push the bull out to 2020, for all I know.  It will just make the crash more brutal in the end.

I probably won't live to see the next generational top after that, unless quantum immortality is a thing, or a friendly AGI appears.

[1714116951]

1714116951

[Hueristic]

It will be the most used coin to buy things

That it will never be.

It just have has an amazing team, great name and the best founder ever.

None of which has any relevance nor implication at all, even if it was true.

If there is any "best founder ever" then it's undoubtedly the bitcoin founder. All the kids that popped up after him are just substanceless derivatives.

Considering BitMonero's founder was outed and this project was taken over by community members I don't think so.

I've always thought there is a strong possibility the anonymous cryptonote author "Nicholas van Saberhagen" actually IS "Satoshi Nakamoto"

I've always thought Saberhagen was a tip of the hat to one of my favorite reads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berserker_%28Saberhagen%29

[aminorex]

I've always thought Saberhagen was a tip of the hat to one of my favorite reads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berserker_%28Saberhagen%29

Perhaps that, and Nicolas Bourbaki.

[bitgov]

Libertas darknet website need some month to build trust and pump MONERO price...

I think the same, just inflame the popularity and the value itself will go up, just now how to do? I hope to someone get the perfect idea.

[Hueristic]

I speculate that my long will take another month before I can close at a break even. At least the lending rate has come down.

Also I tried to open another position and then cancel it on polo to lower my rate to the current market rate and that did not work.

[Hueristic]

I've always thought Saberhagen was a tip of the hat to one of my favorite reads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berserker_%28Saberhagen%29

Perhaps that, and Nicolas Bourbaki.

Maybe, I do think a little effort went into that particular pseudonym, guys like that like inside jokes.

[garytheasshole]

I'm not too sure it's a good idea to open positions at this time, with the upcoming bitcoin forks. At least my plan is to be with all bitcoin, dump both forks and buy back my alts, hopefully before they recover.

[Hueristic]

I'm not too sure it's a good idea to open positions at this time, with the upcoming bitcoin forks. At least my plan is to be with all bitcoin, dump both forks and buy back my alts, hopefully before they recover.

I opened my long in Sept. Bad choice obviously

[guesswho1234]

I speculate that my long will take another month before I can close at a break even. At least the lending rate has come down.

Also I tried to open another position and then cancel it on polo to lower my rate to the current market rate and that did not work.

haha im in the same boat. i plan to sell with profit tho. as you said lending costs almost nothing.

[sconklin321]

Yes it is a fact that the price has dropped a little but soon the price will rise faster than the old one. Monero is different from other coins and they are not as simple. I'm sure I will see her in much better places.

[Gradus728]

it's really cool that in general everyone argues on this topic. I like to participate in this discussion. It's very cool that an increasing number and my friends are involved in all this "turmoil". And also, in principle, to understand that the Alcoccans and the crypto-currency surrounds themselves around the sign and the critics, and to see themselves in this list

[Hueristic]

I speculate that my long will take another month before I can close at a break even. At least the lending rate has come down.

Also I tried to open another position and then cancel it on polo to lower my rate to the current market rate and that did not work.

haha im in the same boat. i plan to sell with profit tho. as you said lending costs almost nothing.

Yes it is a fact that the price has dropped a little but soon the price will rise faster than the old one. Monero is different from other coins and they are not as simple. I'm sure I will see her in much better places.

Hah, I can answer you both with the same line!

Yup all Long term Holders believe this and are taking positions to take advantage of this fact.

[KeyJockey]

Now, ETH has hard fork drama which could be catastrophic, so everything built on ETH suddenly looks super risky.

Can you elaborate on this? What's happened with ETH fork that "could be catastrophic"...?

Your comment is first I've heard of it, and moreover it seems to have just glossed over everyone in this thread too!  Am I, again, the last to know??  Doh!!  LOL ...

[LennyCarl]

Now, ETH has hard fork drama which could be catastrophic, so everything built on ETH suddenly looks super risky.

Can you elaborate on this? What's happened with ETH fork that "could be catastrophic"...?

Your comment is first I've heard of it, and moreover it seems to have just glossed over everyone in this thread too!  Am I, again, the last to know??  Doh!!  LOL ...

Dude, you didn't know about the upcoming catastrophic Eth fork?!? Pshhh!

(Heh, I am also unaware... double D'oh! Heck ,what other threads/sites do you guys usually monitor?)

[Hueristic]

Not sure about the ETH HF either but there is this.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tezos-raised-232-million-in-a-hot-coin-offering-then-a-fight-broke-out-1508354704

[starmman]

Yes it is a fact that the price has dropped a little but soon the price will rise faster than the old one. Monero is different from other coins and they are not as simple. I'm sure I will see her in much better places.

Yeah - I'm wondering who else is selling - I understand people want more BTC due to these fork that are coming out - but right now if you buy alts you'll get way more back than the forked bitcoins when they are pumped again

[walonek]

How do you longterm holders look right now? Who sold at 0.03 or even 0.02 made money. Everyone missed his time. Simply noMore. noMore even cant rebounce upto 0.02. Waiting for frustrated holders to attack me. I hold for 1 year and sold and at least I am happy that i made money from lazy, one of biggest coins, which looks today as crap at over 1 year timeframe(comparing to the market).  BTC frozen for over 1 year is too long. I predicted 0.02 at rebounce but that even made shit! noMore is such weak coin...

[Globb0]

Waiting for frustrated holders to attack me.

Goading. However, its not worth the oxygen.

Everyone has your message and you now add you are not very good at predicting stuff. OK noted.

[walonek]

Waiting for frustrated holders to attack me.

Goading. However, its not worth the oxygen.

Everyone has your message and you now add you are not very good at predicting stuff. OK noted.

Look how many did not belive that noMore would be at 0.016. Maybe it will rebounce to 0.02 but at the moment the RSI is SO LOW that even i cant belive that... So weak coin. noMore is simple fallout from nuclear explosion of alts of last year.

[starmman]

How do you longterm holders look right now? Who sold at 0.03 or even 0.02 made money. Everyone missed his time. Simply noMore. noMore even cant rebounce upto 0.02. Waiting for frustrated holders to attack me. I hold for 1 year and sold and at least I am happy that i made money from lazy, one of biggest coins, which looks today as crap at over 1 year timeframe(comparing to the market).  BTC frozen for over 1 year is too long. I predicted 0.02 at rebounce but that even made shit! noMore is such weak coin...

My trading strategy is fine with the current price - it feeds off volatility, so personally I'm fine with the current situation, however if the price halved i'd almost be out the market. I make BTC all the way up and XMR all the way down.