[XMR] Monero Speculation

[XMR2020]

Damn I wish I had a Bitfinex account and some liquid BTC, BCH just looks perfect for a Good short!

Is there really any time that BCH looks bad for a short?

about an hour ago. Lol

I guess I stand corrected. I really was not expecting that, although then again maybe that's why I don't short.

You have to remember there is atleast one irrational bitcoin whale out there who is trying to use his force of will to make BCH succeed because of his "principles". So that one could continue to surprise. I'll say this though. If he succeeds and causes the market to fracture in a big way or even worse cause BTC to lose all value and BCH to become BTC it will undermine our whole sector. We will look like a joke to outsiders. That price is already doing this but it isn't as bad as it could be. Yet...

Finally, someone get's it. I've been thinking this all along. All these people on /r/cryptocurrency hoping that BTC will fail, so that their own coin may thrive, are delusional. It's way too early for BTC to give up the reigns. This could set the cryptosphere back for years.

Completely agree. If BTC is successfully attacked by forking, it will be a severe blow to cryptocurrency. It's an attack vector I've worried about for a while. If a central bank wanted to destroy competition from Bitcoin, I would exactly follow the BCash playbook:

a coordinated social attack to create confusion,
fork the project to a coin you control, and then,
use access to infinite fiat to win the liquidity war.

If they can successfully destroy bitcoins role as a store of value, then crypto will never compete with government fiat as a viable form of money. If cryptocurrencies devolve into payment rails and speculative ponzis, they become far less interesting than the future of money.

Cheering for the demise of bitcoin is literally cheering for the death knoll of all cryptocurrency. The only flippening that wouldn't cause me to liquidate all my cryptocurrency holdings would BTC -> XMR. Well, I'd probably keep 21 BTC for nostalgia 

[generalizethis]

Someone gets it  

https://twitter.com/derose/status/929026257404211201

[Globb0]

I still feel pretty sick about Sharex exchange exit scam, lost a few BTC.

Essentialy I went from 1400 to 700 half the stack. Still lets see.  

I hope XMR can do well, 700 is still a nice stash.

[Anon136]

If they can successfully destroy bitcoins role as a store of value, then crypto will never compete with government fiat as a viable form of money. If cryptocurrencies devolve into payment rails and speculative ponzis, they become far less interesting than the future of money.

I am predicting that this attack vector will be employed and it will work and it will destroy the store of value role for cryptos and force them into payment rails and speculative ponzies. I predict a future where crypto is used for payments and gold is used for storing value. I think it will provide a great opportunity. Fist cryptos will suck all of the capitalization out of the precious metals markets as people begin to think that cryptos have made precious metals obsolite, then people will begin to understand this problem and a ton of that capital will flow back in. I plan on positioning accordingly.

Interested what Aminorex thinks about this comment If he happen to read this.

[Febo]

If they can successfully destroy bitcoins role as a store of value, then crypto will never compete with government fiat as a viable form of money. If cryptocurrencies devolve into payment rails and speculative ponzis, they become far less interesting than the future of money.

I am predicting that this attack vector will be employed and it will work and it will destroy the store of value role for cryptos and force them into payment rails and speculative ponzies. I predict a future where crypto is used for payments and gold is used for storing value. I think it will provide a great opportunity. Fist cryptos will suck all of the capitalization out of the precious metals markets as people begin to think that cryptos have made precious metals obsolite, then people will begin to understand this problem and a ton of that capital will flow back in. I plan on positioning accordingly.

Interested what Aminorex thinks about this comment If he happen to read this.

I am curious to hear when you expect that to happen. Things move fast this year, but before they did not that fast. Could that happen in 10 years time?

[Anon136]

If they can successfully destroy bitcoins role as a store of value, then crypto will never compete with government fiat as a viable form of money. If cryptocurrencies devolve into payment rails and speculative ponzis, they become far less interesting than the future of money.

I am predicting that this attack vector will be employed and it will work and it will destroy the store of value role for cryptos and force them into payment rails and speculative ponzies. I predict a future where crypto is used for payments and gold is used for storing value. I think it will provide a great opportunity. Fist cryptos will suck all of the capitalization out of the precious metals markets as people begin to think that cryptos have made precious metals obsolite, then people will begin to understand this problem and a ton of that capital will flow back in. I plan on positioning accordingly.

Interested what Aminorex thinks about this comment If he happen to read this.

I am curious to hear when you expect that to happen. Things move fast this year, but before they did not that fast. Could that happen in 10 years time?

Jeez timings a bitch isn't it. Sorry I have no idea how to time anything. My whole investment philosophy is just: look for the big picture, be patient, don't be greedy. I just take some PM profits at significant new all time highs and will continue to do indefinitely. If the market turns I'll probably plow those same pm's back into crypto. But really the next wave im hoping for is a correction in equities so I can buy companies that build AI. AI is the true end game. Someday they will be better at deploying our capital than we could ever be and that's when the game is over. Everyone gets to put their cards down on the table and we can see the winners and losers.

[BubbIes]

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago only agreed to be a false one and we are back to the downtrend. Large throwing also today.

[aminorex]

If they can successfully destroy bitcoins role as a store of value, then crypto will never compete with government fiat as a viable form of money. If cryptocurrencies devolve into payment rails and speculative ponzis, they become far less interesting than the future of money.

I am predicting that this attack vector will be employed and it will work and it will destroy the store of value role for cryptos and force them into payment rails and speculative ponzies. I predict a future where crypto is used for payments and gold is used for storing value. I think it will provide a great opportunity. Fist cryptos will suck all of the capitalization out of the precious metals markets as people begin to think that cryptos have made precious metals obsolite, then people will begin to understand this problem and a ton of that capital will flow back in. I plan on positioning accordingly.

Interested what Aminorex thinks about this comment If he happen to read this.

It's a plausible scenario, but there are countervailing factors relative to Monero in particular, three of which strike me immediately: PQ=MV; liquidity's abhorrence of friction; and, post-scarcity outcomes.  

Dispose of the last, easiest point first: By 2040 we are either in a post-apocalyptic dystopia, or no metal is very precious any longer, due to cheap energy, LENR transmutation, and/or asteroid mining.  Any postulated PM bubble has to play out before a post-scarcity future arrives.  2030 seems safe, 2050 seems unsafe, against such a development.

The other two are tightly coupled.  As long as obligations are due and denominated in a given numeraire, that currency will have a corresponding demand.  As long as there is a demand denominated in a given numeraire, a supply will arise to preclude arbitrage.  That is how a currency economy expresses social capital as liquidity.  If there were frictionless exchange - and due to trivial technical innovation, there will be, for all the transparent public chains - one currency would be as good as another for commerce, and all would merge into one pool of effective liquidity. But  at some critical level of friction at the exchange margin, economies will segregate by  currency. Certainly we see this kind of coarse-graining even in fiat economies, where the only cause of exchange friction is rent-seeking regulatory capture!  How much more so when there are sound fundamental, cum technological, reasons for it?

Given that certain - inelastic demand - goods will always be denominated preferentially in XMR, it will always have a distinct PQ and V, hence M.  (I cannot say the same of, e.g., BTC.)  The harder it is to exchange into and out of XMR, the more certain it is that the XMR economy will self-sustain, because it will not leak utility at the exchange margin.  Contrast Zcash, which can, trivially, be integrated with the global transparent liquidity pool, and hence has no compelled reserve demand in the long run (nor, I would argue, any risk-averse demand in the short run, for entirely separate reasons).

In short, the 80 tn USD white market global economy may be well served by the transparent liquidity of trivial exchange and unlimited dilution, but the 20 TUSD black market will not be, at least not as easily or as soon.  Moreover, a strictly opaque chain will require some non-trivial protocol advance, not yet in evidence,  to allow liquidity to efficiently flow across exchange with transparent chains.  Thus we can conclude with substantial probability that there will be a dominant opaque chain, even after Bitcoin is diluted into effective oblivion.

None of that should be taken to mean that a migration to PM reserve and crypto liquidity does not occur, over the next decade or two - only, that it's occurrence does not harm Monero, at least not at the order of magnitude in degree that transparent chains without a natural monopoly will be harmed.

[aminorex]

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago only agreed to be a false one and we are back to the downtrend. Large throwing also today.

I wouldn't count on it.  This is not some pathetic alt with nothing but speculation and Ponzi power to drive it.  This is the emerging dominant currency of the global shadow economy.  Already it is manifestly taking share from all competitors.  When multisig is live on mainnet, it will be signed and sealed, the currency of what may just be the only free market in the known universe, the only legitimate price discovery channel, and hence the only actual, natural, money in existence; the only non-fiat hard currency you can spend any where, on any thing, at any time.

Freedom itself, made digital.

[rinus]

A few days ago I suggested that it was premature to expect an XMRUSD bull to kick in, until we are much closer to multisig on mainnet.  I repent of that notion.  I was acting on two premises: Firstly, that only two things are infinite, human stupidity and the universe - and I am not sure about the universe; and, secondly, that XMR was not yet seeing significant uptake in DNMs.  Well, the second of these was erroneous.  A scan of major DNMs shows that, AFAICT, only Dream stands as the last significant DNM which has not adopted XMR for non-MS xns.

Stupid, humans may be, yet they are endowed with the shrewdness of avarice, and I can no longer preclude an imminent bull.

Do we have an idea when multisig goes mainnet?

[garytheasshole]

A few days ago I suggested that it was premature to expect an XMRUSD bull to kick in, until we are much closer to multisig on mainnet.  I repent of that notion.  I was acting on two premises: Firstly, that only two things are infinite, human stupidity and the universe - and I am not sure about the universe; and, secondly, that XMR was not yet seeing significant uptake in DNMs.  Well, the second of these was erroneous.  A scan of major DNMs shows that, AFAICT, only Dream stands as the last significant DNM which has not adopted XMR for non-MS xns.

Stupid, humans may be, yet they are endowed with the shrewdness of avarice, and I can no longer preclude an imminent bull.

Do we have an idea when multisig goes mainnet?

soon™

[KiXiNiT]

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago only agreed to be a false one and we are back to the downtrend. Large throwing also today.

I wouldn't count on it.  This is not some pathetic alt with nothing but speculation and Ponzi power to drive it.  This is the emerging dominant currency of the global shadow economy.  Already it is manifestly taking share from all competitors.  When multisig is live on mainnet, it will be signed and sealed, the currency of what may just be the only free market in the known universe, the only legitimate price discovery channel, and hence the only actual, natural, money in existence; the only non-fiat hard currency you can spend any where, on any thing, at any time.

Freedom itself, made digital.

Wouldn't be counting those chickens yet ~

Scaling: the biggest issue in crypto atm and XMR will not be exempt at all, not to mention the gargantuan bloat on its hand if it even has a decent percentage of the transactions that Bitcoin has.

People seem to sweep these huge problems going forward under the rug and only speak of the positives, reminds me of Bitcoin and look at the shitfest that debate become and the ensuing "propositions"

XMR has all of this to look forward to!

[garytheasshole]

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago only agreed to be a false one and we are back to the downtrend. Large throwing also today.

I wouldn't count on it.  This is not some pathetic alt with nothing but speculation and Ponzi power to drive it.  This is the emerging dominant currency of the global shadow economy.  Already it is manifestly taking share from all competitors.  When multisig is live on mainnet, it will be signed and sealed, the currency of what may just be the only free market in the known universe, the only legitimate price discovery channel, and hence the only actual, natural, money in existence; the only non-fiat hard currency you can spend any where, on any thing, at any time.

Freedom itself, made digital.

Wouldn't be counting those chickens yet ~

Scaling: the biggest issue in crypto atm and XMR will not be exempt at all, not to mention the gargantuan bloat on its hand if it even has a decent percentage of the transactions that Bitcoin has.

People seem to sweep these huge problems going forward under the rug and only speak of the positives, reminds me of Bitcoin and look at the shitfest that debate become and the ensuing "propositions"

XMR has all of this to look forward to!

One thing is for sure, larger block sizes does not really fix scaling issues, only postpones them until the blockchain data gets so big very few people would be able to run full nodes, then we're in a whole different mess.

[aminorex]

Moore's law may be breaking down, but storage density is going 3D.  NSA and YouTube's scaling issues turn blockchains into noise, and blockchain storage will ride on their coattails. After 3D there is MRAM to come.  Tech isn't going to stand still. When home storage is measured in petabytes, XMR as it stands today suffices to store every transaction in the global shadow economy which is large enough to justify the recording fees.

XMR has never been the "shitfest (sic)" we've seen in Bitcoin.  It seems premature to infer that it will in the future, since the use cases will probably never include, e.g., IoT micropayments.

[pönde]

This goes little side of the the threads topic, but anyway relates to it like the way like most coins marketcaps relates to the others. I am blessed to own same amount of BTC and BCH but pissed of when alts and XMR get hit. So BCH is risig while BTC and alts are falling. Is it becouse some dude said this?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-classic-shuts-down-as-staff-claim-bitcoin-cash-will-rule-in-6-months


And about the blockchain bloat. That I have been wondering also.

Moore's law may be breaking down, but storage density is going 3D.  NSA and YouTube's scaling issues turn blockchains into noise, and blockchain storage will ride on their coattails. After 3D there is MRAM to come.  Tech isn't going to stand still. When home storage is measured in petabytes, XMR as it stands today suffices to store every transaction in the global shadow economy which is large enough to justify the recording fees.

Hmm. Well that is relaxing. Some interesting articles can be found by googling "3D memory" and "MRAM". When do you think these technologies will be available for regular Joes?

[aminorex]

"3D memory" and "MRAM". When do you think these technologies will be available for regular Joes?

3D flash is already being commercialized by Intel and Micron, Samsung, probably by others. MRAM and related infrastructures won't be commercialized because of entry costs, until a major customer, a Google, NSA, or Amazon, creates an opportunity for short-term low-risk amortization of the upfront costs of achieving economy of scale.  Long term there will be quantum error correction on continuous state vectors, but that is not very predictable.

[rinus]

This goes little side of the the threads topic, but anyway relates to it like the way like most coins marketcaps relates to the others. I am blessed to own same amount of BTC and BCH but pissed of when alts and XMR get hit. So BCH is risig while BTC and alts are falling. Is it becouse some dude said this?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-classic-shuts-down-as-staff-claim-bitcoin-cash-will-rule-in-6-mo

What would this mean for xmr?

[garytheasshole]

Loving the XMR market today, really good times!
Where the hell is walonek?

[generalizethis]

Loving the XMR market today, really good times!
Where the hell is walonek?

He got stuck in a bear trap, "But I thought it said noMore!"

[explorer]

Binance tearing it up on low liquidity...