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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3205495 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
Globb0
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November 22, 2017, 11:43:14 AM
 #34461

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Dash has been successful in only one sense: Understanding that what the masses actually want is horseshit wrapped in a logo. The argument could just as easily be applied to many manifestations of mainstream culture: McDonalds, iPhone, Coke, Budweiser, Hollywood remakes, Disney, etc.

People generally love shit.

If there is wisdom to be extrapolated it is that Monero needs to be aesthetically as advanced as any other piece of crap out there, and the gift of privacy/fungibility can be injected to an otherwise ignorance audience regardless. Brand and image requires as much attention from the Monero intelligentsia as cryptography, and much like the establishment of the Monero logo (99 designs) it will most likely require pushing to visual design experts.

I say this, because I've been spending the last week or so redesigning the Monero subreddit which I intend to push to the community in the next couple of weeks. To be frank, the current subreddit looks kinda shitty, and it has sparked inspiration in me at least to review Monero's collective capacity to compete with mainstream brands. (It's do-able with the right mindset.)

Your efforts are much appreciated and incredibly worthwhile.

I agree with the thrust of what you say; Monero needs better marketing. That said, it must be in character and distinctive - Monero is special.


I think also that's a great idea.

Starting with tidying up the crap is a winner.

Sadly this very thread is so often over run with crap itself, that cant look good to genuine new people dropping in for a look.


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November 22, 2017, 12:05:07 PM
 #34462

Over $155

Youa're right, this is a Monero speculation thread  Smiley

1738 of off-topic messages. Why do not you talk about Bytecoin, which is a currency far superior to Monero.
Or AEON which is also far superior to Monero.

Why is AEON cheaper than Monero? This is out of reality.
Monero should cost $ 2.34.



...





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Globb0
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November 22, 2017, 12:08:58 PM
 #34463

More wet fart than boom.

Monero is a strong coin far from that original base code.

Yes there are other projects, you seem to have landed on the wrong thread if you want to shill them here.

Meanwhile for all of us the Monero price is pumping nicely, given the ATH of bitcoin is also happening in the background (increasing the dollar value gains) its even nicer.


Yie Ar Kung-Fu
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November 22, 2017, 12:10:32 PM
 #34464

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Dash has been successful in only one sense: Understanding that what the masses actually want is horseshit wrapped in a logo. The argument could just as easily be applied to many manifestations of mainstream culture: McDonalds, iPhone, Coke, Budweiser, Hollywood remakes, Disney, etc.

People generally love shit.

If there is wisdom to be extrapolated it is that Monero needs to be aesthetically as advanced as any other piece of crap out there, and the gift of privacy/fungibility can be injected to an otherwise ignorance audience regardless. Brand and image requires as much attention from the Monero intelligentsia as cryptography, and much like the establishment of the Monero logo (99 designs) it will most likely require pushing to visual design experts.

I say this, because I've been spending the last week or so redesigning the Monero subreddit which I intend to push to the community in the next couple of weeks. To be frank, the current subreddit looks kinda shitty, and it has sparked inspiration in me at least to review Monero's collective capacity to compete with mainstream brands. (It's do-able with the right mindset.)

Your efforts are much appreciated and incredibly worthwhile.

I agree with the thrust of what you say; Monero needs better marketing. That said, it must be in character and distinctive - Monero is special.


For me it's not so much about marketing as it is about branding and visual design. I can kinda do a lot of the marketing myself through word of mouth and other renegade tactics, providing the branding and stylistics are on point.

My golden rule tends to be: "Can I sell this to the girl next door and the Japanese?" If the answer is Yes and Yes.... then I know it's a winner.

"In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine." - Warren Buffet

Dash is winning the popularity contest. Ethereum is similar. If cryptocurrencies are speculative ponzis, whichever project can attract the greatest number of greater fools will be the short-term winner.

If cryptocurrencies are the future of sound money and censorship resistant value transfer, then the weighing machine should strongly favor Monero. Either way - Dash dies. It's a guaranteed failure by either criteria. The verdict is out on Bitcoin and Monero.
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November 22, 2017, 01:31:18 PM
 #34465

Over $155

Youa're right, this is a Monero speculation thread  Smiley

1738 of off-topic messages. Why do not you talk about Bytecoin, which is a currency far superior to Monero.
Or AEON which is also far superior to Monero.

Why is AEON cheaper than Monero? This is out of reality.
Monero should cost $ 2.34.




LOL, a legendary user with zero clue. Smiley

To answer your questions, Bytecoin is a known scam: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740112.0

I do like Aeon, it's Monero's little brother but it's far from "far superior". Once Aeon has the rebase, it will be much better:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Aeon/comments/7akef4/rebasing_and_what_it_means_for_aeon/
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November 22, 2017, 01:42:46 PM
 #34466


Dash is winning the popularity contest. Ethereum is similar. If cryptocurrencies are speculative ponzis, whichever project can attract the greatest number of greater fools will be the short-term winner.

If cryptocurrencies are the future of sound money and censorship resistant value transfer, then the weighing machine should strongly favor Monero. Either way - Dash dies. It's a guaranteed failure by either criteria. The verdict is out on Bitcoin and Monero.

I don't even think that Dash is winning the popularity contest, even outside of the Monero community there is a pretty wide awareness of Dash's (at least semi) scammy nature. There are also rumours that the price is manipulated so you don't know if the price actually reflects the popularity. I feel that the Dash community is the typical telemarketing crowd, they don't really care about the tech as long as the price goes up.

If they would open their eyes, the case against Dash is pretty strong:

https://medium.com/@omiros23/evans-and-dash-s-scam-story-add1f16528ae

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/3s2uyf/dash_is_a_planned_instamine_it_wasnt_an_accident/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=999886.0


Evan doesn't even deny the Instamine: https://dashdot.io/alpha/?page_id=118


Sorry, if this is too much OT. Feel free to delete.
Billy Bunter
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November 22, 2017, 01:59:07 PM
 #34467

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Dash has been successful in only one sense: Understanding that what the masses actually want is horseshit wrapped in a logo. The argument could just as easily be applied to many manifestations of mainstream culture: McDonalds, iPhone, Coke, Budweiser, Hollywood remakes, Disney, etc.

People generally love shit.

If there is wisdom to be extrapolated it is that Monero needs to be aesthetically as advanced as any other piece of crap out there, and the gift of privacy/fungibility can be injected to an otherwise ignorance audience regardless. Brand and image requires as much attention from the Monero intelligentsia as cryptography, and much like the establishment of the Monero logo (99 designs) it will most likely require pushing to visual design experts.

I say this, because I've been spending the last week or so redesigning the Monero subreddit which I intend to push to the community in the next couple of weeks. To be frank, the current subreddit looks kinda shitty, and it has sparked inspiration in me at least to review Monero's collective capacity to compete with mainstream brands. (It's do-able with the right mindset.)

Sounds like a great idea. We should also try to tie in the twitter/facebook pages so that we have continuity of branding throughout. As you know, there are those on reddit who are against any kind of image-upgrade - for them it smells too much like shilling and undermines the integrity of Monero. So be prepared for a fight.

Baguette Holder.
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November 22, 2017, 02:11:41 PM
Last edit: November 22, 2017, 02:27:05 PM by aminorex
 #34468

Safest time to buy is when a new ATH becomes a confirmed breakout, but a fairly tight stop is advisable - one wide enough to test support at the old ATH, but tight enough to keep the downside manageable, recoverable.

So in Rangedriver's parlance, I guess Zcash is bullshit with an algebraic geometry coating, and a crunchy cyanide pill center.  Funny thing: I have seen supposedly clever fund managers beguiled by the moon math, completely ignoring the gaping flaws in governance.  Oh well, it is nice when the competition is incompetent.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 22, 2017, 02:25:10 PM
 #34469

It seems that South Korean like Monero very much. Almost 32 % of trading volume came from Bithumb exchange.

The demand of anynomous and privacy coins are high now. Dash and Monero are going up in value at the same time. Both coins got a very strong belief among the community members.
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November 22, 2017, 03:06:19 PM
 #34470

It seems that South Korean like Monero very much. Almost 32 % of trading volume came from Bithumb exchange.

The demand of anynomous and privacy coins are high now. Dash and Monero are going up in value at the same time. Both coins got a very strong belief among the community members.

Anyone who uses dash for privacy is either ignorant or stupid. This is only proof that most speculators won't research beyond the announcement page and are more than happy to play fool in a game of greater fool. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning and the market will wise up faster than dashtards can pile their bs.

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November 22, 2017, 03:17:11 PM
 #34471

Safest time to buy is when a new ATH becomes a confirmed breakout, but a fairly tight stop is advisable - one wide enough to test support at the old ATH, but tight enough to keep the downside manageable, recoverable.
ATH in bitcoin terms or fiat terms?
I'm gonna look at the xmr/btc chart.
Among the highs going back to the big 2016 summer pump, it seems to me that we haven't had a situation where buying at ATH or even a local high on a timescale of several months would have worked out well, unless you hodl for a long time after.
I guess I've been telling myself it's easier to see a bottom than a top.
Also, I've never used a stop since the day I started buying crypto four and a half years ago, so your strategy wouldn't work for me.

Edit:  I just realized something.  ATH looking back isn't the same thing as ATH looking forward in the moment.  That 2016 pump, for example, set an ATH long before it topped.
So yeah, your strategy would mean getting in on a pump by taking advantage of the momentum.  It's trading, not investing, but then this is the speculation thread.
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November 22, 2017, 04:22:29 PM
Last edit: November 22, 2017, 07:13:58 PM by Hueristic
 #34472


Karken was savage on twitter


Lol, thats a good one! Too bad the only thing you can use to margin on Kraken is USD. And considering they don't allow US residents to transfer in USD with CC like they initially said they would makes their m,argin worthless. I moved my XMR there only to find out I had to sell it for USD to use margin and when I wasn't willing to do that all they would offer Us residents is EFT and they busted my balls about my picture when verifying I just said to hell with them. I cannot stand their order book as well trying to set margins on kraken is akin to pulling teeth. It has the worst interface of any exchange I've used including shitcoin exchanges which I almost never use since Coinmarket and CoinEx pulled their exit scams.



It seems that South Korean like Monero very much. Almost 32 % of trading volume came from Bithumb exchange.

The demand of anynomous and privacy coins are high now. Dash and Monero are going up in value at the same time. Both coins got a very strong belief among the community members.

Anyone who uses dash for privacy is either ignorant or stupid. This is only proof that most speculators won't research beyond the announcement page and are more than happy to play fool in a game of greater fool. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning and the market will wise up faster than dashtards can pile their bs.

With the new batch of speculators since crypto went mainstream I would advocate that they are both. Smiley

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November 22, 2017, 04:54:11 PM
 #34473

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Investor doesnt care if a coin is
- premined by dev such as Eth and alot of other ico
- instamined either by accident or not such as Dash
- mined for year by community  such as Btc

what investor buy is the potential for future value, investor will buy Btc at 8000 if they believe it will reach higher same thing with other coin,  the amount of coin owned by dev or community or instamined or premined is irrelevant.

so pls stop the saltiness, toward others success,  Dash is rival not enemy...  you guys should be ashamed for these OT  post hating Dash for their success. Tongue

"...I suspect we need a better incentive for users to run nodes instead of relying solely on altruism...",  satoshi@vistomail.com
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November 22, 2017, 05:39:02 PM
Last edit: November 22, 2017, 05:51:23 PM by aminorex
 #34474

Dash is rival not enemy...  you guys should be ashamed for these OT  post hating Dash for their success. Tongue

I would have no real beef with dash if it were not a centralized surveillance vehicle.  I still wouldn't hold it because of the instamine, and would warn against the Ponzi masternode scheme if asked, but bogus claims of privacy can get people killed, and that is just evil.  I have the same problem with zcash, q.v. Alexandre Cazes.

Anyhow, understanding surprising successes is quite germaine to the fate of "rivals".  In legacy finance a study of "comparables" is well tested and proven to be fruitful for the speculator.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 22, 2017, 05:40:31 PM
 #34475

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Investor doesnt care if a coin is
- premined by dev such as Eth and alot of other ico
- instamined either by accident or not such as Dash
- mined for year by community  such as Btc

what investor buy is the potential for future value, investor will buy Btc at 8000 if they believe it will reach higher same thing with other coin,  the amount of coin owned by dev or community or instamined or premined is irrelevant.

so pls stop the saltiness, toward others success,  Dash is rival not enemy...  you guys should be ashamed for these OT  post hating Dash for their success. Tongue

I am sure you are happy (and are not alone) with profits.  I am sure most people who buy Dash don't care, too. Or they wouldn't buy it.

People here are anti-centralisation, anti-premine and anti coins with false claims attached to them.

I never post in the Dash thread and I really don't care what Dash fans think - why are you so worried about what people think in here?

We won't change our mind about Dash, it is just way over-priced and over manipulated in our minds.

So, sorry - but you posting here will not change any minds. Most here think Dash is simply a disaster waiting to happen. As do I.

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 06:30:32 PM
 #34476

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin

bagholder since 2013
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November 22, 2017, 06:32:51 PM
 #34477

Not getting excited about ATHs until 2020.

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November 22, 2017, 06:33:15 PM
 #34478

Still climbing against BTC...

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November 22, 2017, 07:03:03 PM
 #34479

Agreed, that never seems to be the problem, in my eyes at least, Monero seems to be perpetually under priced!

I don't take such talk very seriously.  No judgement - hey, I am pseudonymous because I like to talk smack sometimes myself.

There are ways to put a fundamental value on these things, but any time you start discounting a future expectation the degrees of freedom proliferate, and you can't really marginalize without a proper measure, so it is always a matter if judgement under bounded rationality.  When critical facts are unavailable the picture gets very fuzzy very fast.  For example, how do you pick your holding horizon?  What is the time evolution of the expectation distribution, and what is it's form?  What manner of discounting is rational given other assumptions, and what are the distributions on those assumptions?  Are there discrete or binary scenarios indicating distinct models?  It gets very complicated very fast when you try to account for second- and third-order effects, model switching, etc. - spaghetti plate diagrams, mixing times that go through the roof, computations that can consume millennia of cpu time.  Ugh.  If you can make complementary arguments for parameter bounds, that can clarify things quite surprisingly, sudoku-style, but usually I just go with my first intuition, then try to pull apart the assumptions, and attack or support them with ratiocination, known or inferred facts, and common sense - the sum of which is quite fallible in comparison with MCMC, but at least provides a timely answer, for the most part.  Fisher's law is sound, and creates a moving attractor, but markets are inefficient, mass-market discounting praxis is mostly a mystery, and event-driven jumps remain often unpredictable.

That said, my Fisher estimate for post-MS XMR is 250 USD in April, and 400 a year later, but even if those numbers (probably conservative) are sound attractors, pricing is volatile on speculative runs, accumulation/distribution events, and news, so that I would expect every price between (roughly) 300 and 1000 to be seen at some point in the 4q18-1q19 period.  Dramatic changes in the USD political economy seem likely to drive it higher.


Message received, I have been properly put in my place.

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin

That may be due to the fact that most other people here think that Monero has been "perpetually under priced" as well.
 
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November 22, 2017, 07:12:29 PM
 #34480

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin
yeah right?

just flying under the radar casually taking the ath with it
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