[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Ref: Prediction, I hope you're right, as I am a die hard supporter.  I just feel we might have some pain coming, but August will be when it all kicks off again.  Monero has its cycles and I have faith.

Ref: Polo - yep, the discount for the 30,000,000 USD a month players is 'optimistic' when their volume is pitiful compared to what it was.  It use to trade huge amounts of BTC - ALTS, and was pretty much at the top for a while, now it's slid way down the list.  Shame, I have a soft spot for it and its role in Monero's success. But in crypto things move fast and those that don't adapt, will fade and die.

Damn, just took a look and it's just ugly right now, but I think it's whale feeding time and all the little guppies are emptying their pockets. .

[elrippos friend]

0,06125 in mid of October 

[ArticMine]

 

...

Damn, just took a look and it's just ugly right now, but I think it's whale feeding time and all the little guppies are emptying their pockets. .

If I were to guess it could also be short squeezing time. I would not be surprised if there is a significant XMR short position by our ASIC player. There are some strange moves which may be due to the ASIC fork including a very sudden sharp rise in the price of BCN,  which was very likely caused by a single large buyer. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the BCN hashrate. The ASICs may find BCN to be a more attractive home than XMO.

When it comes to squeezing shorts, my strategy is very simple one buys or keeps holding, takes delivery (this is absolutely critical) and waits,  

Edit: Fish of any size can participate in this strategy.

[kurious]

0,06125 in mid of October  

I think there might be upwards fun before then, see my thoughts above, but I can't rule 0.06 by October out.

It's BTC, as always, that leads the whole market. The inability to get to five figures was obvious and showed a weakness that means more pain is required before really escaping the bear market.

The stock market old-timers used to say 'sell in may and go away'...

Around a week ago I sold a portion of my BTC trading stash and placed some lowball bids stepping down from 9K which have started to be hit.  But my fresh fiat is aimed at XMR.  Why XMR?  Partly because I sold some late last year and the fiat is currently wasting away in the bank, but mainly because by the autumn I think anything bought now or lower is at at least a 50% discount to what I think we will see by this autumn.

It's already looking a steal IMHO. The pain was coming, but if you have cash Monero might just be starting its summer sale.

DYOR.

[XMR2020]

0,06125 in mid of October  

But my fresh fiat is aimed at XMR.  Why XMR?  Partly because I sold some late last year and the fiat is currently wasting away in the bank, but mainly because by the autumn I think anything bought now or lower is at at least a 50% discount to what I think we will see by this autumn.

My fresh fiat is also directed towards XMR. The XMRBTC just dipped below the 200 day MA, and has been historically a very smart buy anytime it is below this level.

[dominikzacny]

Well for once I have to agree with you. If XMR fail I doubt I'll touch any other altcoin and stay on BTC to stay (relatively) safe. XMR was objectively one of the best and probably the most honest crypto-development I've seen. If it's taken down by pure malice then to me any interesting/fair altcoin (like idk, BBR) is doomed to be taken down the same way by the mafias that reign on this ecosystem. Whoever want me (and many bitcoiners that bought an altcoin for the first time with XMR) to buy another coin because XMR is "dead" might be disappointed by the outcome.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

[XMR2020]

Monetary status is a spontaneously emergent product of human action, not a rational product of human design. Individuals act out of self-interest, and technological possibilities and the economic realities of supply and demand shape the outcome of their actions, providing them with incentives to persist, adapt, change, or innovate. A spontaneous monetary order emerges from these complex interactions; it is not something that is conferred through academic debate, rational planning, or government mandate.

- Saifedean Ammous, Can Bitcoin's Volatility Be Tamed, 2018

With cryptocurrency at approximately 0.4% of the global broad money supply, and it's non-speculative use an infinitesimally smaller percentage of global money velocity, the forces of self-interest meets economic realities have barely begun to confer monetary status to this technology. The short term whims of the market at this stage are meaningless noise that we fit false conclusions retrospectively. I.E. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

• Economic reality: 20% of the global GDP exists outside the state sanctioned monetary system.
• Technological possibilities: Bitcoin can likely never adopt protocol level fungibility suitable to defend against the state actor level threat models. Monero is the clear leader in this regard, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
• Rational self interest: A large intolerant group will demand payment in private, fungible, digital cash because their life will depend on it.

The spontaneous monetary order that emerges around cryptocurrency will reflect this complex interaction. This is the long term view that the visionaries here anticipate for the Monero project.

The price next week? Anybody's guess. The trend however, is encouraging.

[kurious]

Monetary status is a spontaneously emergent product of human action, not a rational product of human design. Individuals act out of self-interest, and technological possibilities and the economic realities of supply and demand shape the outcome of their actions, providing them with incentives to persist, adapt, change, or innovate. A spontaneous monetary order emerges from these complex interactions; it is not something that is conferred through academic debate, rational planning, or government mandate.

- Saifedean Ammous, Can Bitcoin's Volatility Be Tamed, 2018

With cryptocurrency at approximately 0.4% of the global broad money supply, and it's non-speculative use an infinitesimally smaller percentage of global money velocity, the forces of self-interest meets economic realities have barely begun to confer monetary status to this technology. The short term whims of the market at this stage are meaningless noise that we fit false conclusions retrospectively. I.E. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

• Economic reality: 20% of the global GDP exists outside the state sanctioned monetary system.
• Technological possibilities: Bitcoin can likely never adopt protocol level fungibility suitable to defend against the state actor level threat models. Monero is the clear leader in this regard, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
• Rational self interest: A large intolerant group will demand payment in private, fungible, digital cash because their life will depend on it.

The spontaneous monetary order that emerges around cryptocurrency will reflect this complex interaction. This is the long term view that the visionaries here anticipate for the Monero project.

The price next week? Anybody's guess. The trend however, is encouraging.

The return of the bicryptomaximalist...

You post very well for a noob.  Respect.  Merited.

[kurious]

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

My bet was before end of August.  I too feel any buys now will be well-rewarded soon.  XMR 2020 was right on the 200 MA.  Monero is heading from 'strong buy' into 'insane not to' territory.  It's just when the optimal point is reached, I am greedy but I want to buy at the bottom! 

Of course we aren't the only ones studying it anymore and Monero runs up tend to be rather fast.  Best to keep one's eyes peeled.

[Jasmint]

0,06125 in mid of October  

But my fresh fiat is aimed at XMR.  Why XMR?  Partly because I sold some late last year and the fiat is currently wasting away in the bank, but mainly because by the autumn I think anything bought now or lower is at at least a 50% discount to what I think we will see by this autumn.

My fresh fiat is also directed towards XMR. The XMRBTC just dipped below the 200 day MA, and has been historically a very smart buy anytime it is below this level.

That is a good position. I know somebody is selling ZEC for XMR at the moment as the later is more ASIC resistant.

[karma_project]

I believe in this coin, because it seems to me that similar anonymous coins have a great future. People want to be completely anonymous in crypto.

[explorer]

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

Just bounced off of a line I haven't seen for a while (XMR/BTC), that I drew in  oct/nov 2017, reaching back to May/June 2016.  Does it hold?  Let's find out!

the first 2 times touching this line it more than doubled, very quickly...

[cAPSLOCK]

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

Just bounced off of a line I haven't seen for a while (XMR/BTC), that I drew in  oct/nov 2017, reaching back to May/June 2016.  Does it hold?  Let's find out!

the first 2 times touching this line it more than doubled, very quickly...

A line sort of like this?

[explorer]

My last prediction was way off, but I do think we'll see big movement before October. We're deep in the "is anything ever going to happen" phase of the cycle that is reminiscent of last year when the price seemed to perpetually hover around $30.

The general pattern of the XMR market (and all of crypto, really) is long periods of consolidation and false reversals, followed by very brief moments of extreme excitement and massive price increases. I'm confident we're going to see some fireworks (very) soon.

Just bounced off of a line I haven't seen for a while (XMR/BTC), that I drew in  oct/nov 2017, reaching back to May/June 2016.  Does it hold?  Let's find out!

the first 2 times touching this line it more than doubled, very quickly...

A line sort of like this?

 log scale looks cleaner 

[Hueristic]

So gross, I've been overpaying every week. My bid is now in at .020.... Fuk

I'm so torn, hate see it lose value even though i'm still trying to buy. Lol seriously bi-polar on this.

[Eleanorjean11]

"The attack" is simply the ongoing process of people who want to compete for either money or attention on the basis of various forms of exploits and attacks, or threats of the same. It will never be finished, it is just something needs to be dealt with, like cleaning the windows or mowing the lawn.

[phishead]

So gross, I've been overpaying every week. My bid is now in at .020.... Fuk

I'm so torn, hate see it lose value even though i'm still trying to buy. Lol seriously bi-polar on this.

Don't be that guy who ended up hating himself later on after refusing to give in and buy at .0025 when the AlphaBay stories were swirling around back in the day.

[explorer]

So gross, I've been overpaying every week. My bid is now in at .020.... Fuk

I'm so torn, hate see it lose value even though i'm still trying to buy. Lol seriously bi-polar on this.

Don't be that guy who ended up hating himself later on after refusing to give in and buy at .0025 when the AlphaBay stories were swirling around back in the day.

cruel mention
   

[Hueristic]

So gross, I've been overpaying every week. My bid is now in at .020.... Fuk

I'm so torn, hate see it lose value even though i'm still trying to buy. Lol seriously bi-polar on this.

Don't be that guy who ended up hating himself later on after refusing to give in and buy at .0025 when the AlphaBay stories were swirling around back in the day.

cruel mention
  

I hate you guys!