[XMR] Monero Speculation

[infofront]

First of all I feel like I was a bit of a dick for picking on gemblitz.  He is undoubtedly a special sort of idiot, but there is no reason for me to treat him badly.  I apologize.


The other thing is... yes today was a bad day for Monero.  But in reality it is still performing better than most other alts right now.  For the day it is down very significantly.  And it's painful to see...  I am surprised it has gone this low.  But in the perspective of this week, month and year it is doing better than average compared to the field.

I see four scenarios:

1.  Bitcoin is all that matters in the crypto universe.  This would be the ultra maximalist view.  This is what Tone* is currently slinging I guess.  Alts will now die.  Now.  As in over the next 6-12 months they will shrivel to 1-10% of their current value vs BTC.  This includes Monero.  Bitcoin's coming privacy improvements (schnorr, taproot etc) will render it meaningless.

2. (Polar opposite to #1) We are in "Alt Capitulation".  Today we will have shaken out all the weak hands for alts in general.  This is 12/15/2018 for alts. And now, alts in masse will follow Bitcoins recent parabolic move, possibly even in contrast to a (much needed) BTC pullback from these local highs.  BTC may settle down, and even correct while alts take some spotlight and play catch up.  The sector will move as a whole.

3.  This is the time we separate the wheat from the chaff.  As BTC corrects and alts capitulate, only the alt projects with value will rise from the ashes as the garbage pile that is most alts fades slowly (or quickly) into obscurity. XMR is among these as the POW based blockchain with the leading privacy on the base layer.  Other notable alts will also survive (ETH, DCR, LTC? a few others?)

4.  Left Field. This would be a scenario that is basically like #2 or #3 but with a new contender (or maybe 2 or 3) coming in to take the spotlight from all the other alts.  GRIN maybe?  ETH 2.0? BSV (ha... hahaha ... hahahahaha)**.  Bitcoin keeps the main stage but a new contender rises up to challenge it.  "Traditional" alts fade as the new kids on the block soak up the spotlight.  


Personally, I think #3 is most likely with 1,2 and 4 following.

Likelihood in my opinion:

#3 50%
#1 25%
#2 20%
#4  5%

What do you guys think?



*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality?  That silly number system and all his horrendous calls.  I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen.  And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously.  I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.


** Seriously if CSW pulls of the greatest scam in the history of the Earth (which means he is most likely the Antichrist) then I give up... I will just walk away.

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

Also, as Brandt said (below), this might be like the dotcom bubble. We had a Cambrian explosion of tech stocks/shitcoins. The extinction event is taking place now. Everything will appear dead, but the strong will survive and prosper. Maybe they'll re-emerge in 2020-21 as people look to offload some BTC profits, regulatory clarity finally occurs, maybe some good altcoin custodial solutions emerge (bakkt?), and people become more educated about altcoins (thanks in part to libra).

So, I'm thinking a combination of 1 and 3, but if I have to vote discretely:
1. 30%
2. 25%
3. 25% - Smart money coming into the sector may be able to discern the high quality coins. However, it's taken them 10 years just to seriously look at Bitcoin. I suppose bitcoin could just be the gateway drug
4. 20%  LIBRA - has the potential to absolutely annihilate most other altcoins

Some other popular analysts have chimed in on this:

[Febo]

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows. Considering last 2 cycles it is way to early. But we might just have 2 bull runs same as in 2013. That way one might start soon.  But of course Monero can do something on its own.

[SixFigures]

There is one issue though compared to years ago: we have a lot of stable coins, so people might choose to rather park their money in a stable coin when they think bitcoin might stagnate. I do agree though that still some of the money will go into alts.

[BuHoBeH]

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

[Febo]

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

[jwinterm]

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

Can't we just count Konferenco as $100 party and move on?

[BitBustah]

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

All jokes aside, it is very concerning how low the bitcoin ratio dropped on Monero.  I thought I was getting a good deal at .011 BTC.  I'm going to hold like always but I'm less confident on the recovery this time around.


Also why do people refer to crypto coins as he/him.  Should be,"why did it drop so much in value" not he....

[Traxo]

Decoded message from outer space: 

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

This turn up for BTC appears to be institutions taking over, as they replace the shitcoins with Facebook’s Libra and then prepare to back Libra with Bitcoin after the Core riff-raff are fleeced with the SegWit donations (c.f. also the BCTalk thread).

[dEBRUYNE]

What happened to monero? Why did he drop so much in value?

It did not drop. It just keep want to have $100 Monero party, so tries to stay there. Almost a stable coin. 6 weeks almost same.

All jokes aside, it is very concerning how low the bitcoin ratio dropped on Monero.  I thought I was getting a good deal at .011 BTC.  I'm going to hold like always but I'm less confident on the recovery this time around.


Also why do people refer to crypto coins as he/him.  Should be,"why did it drop so much in value" not he....

Basically all alts got slaughtered though. Monero did not really underperform in Bitcoin terms relative to other altcoins.

[XMR2020]

Decoded message from outer space:  

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

This turn up for BTC appears to be institutions taking over, as they replace the shitcoins with Facebook’s Libra and then prepare to back Libra with Bitcoin after the Core riff-raff are fleeced with the SegWit donations (c.f. also the BCTalk thread).

Libra replacing shitcoins is an amusing narrative. Bitcoin maximalists hate altcoins so much they are trying to meme this into existence. Funny how quick they abandon their cypherpunk ideals when the price is going up. They'll take Evil-corps dystopian coin over any legitimate free market competition to their bags.

When do you think they will figure out that a stable coin will never replace altcoin gambling? Price go up is the game. Price go sideways is never going to replace price go up. Furthermore, do they ever wonder why the "better" stable coins such as GUSD haven't replaced tether? Pull at that thread and you'll realize that no only will facebook coin not replace alt-coins, but it won't even replace tether.  The market will eventually figure this out, but the memes are slow and the herd is dumb. Bitcoin maximalists are incorrigible.

[tokeweed]

This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.

It won't matter for most of us if it's still down vs BTC, cos most of us bought XMR with BTC.  I'm actually down a lot tbh.  It would've been way better for me if I just held BTC.

[Globb0]

Had a lot more BTC equivalent at the top its true, but I wouldn't say better off the few hundred dollar BTC were well invested here.

Please do something though. No hype for XMR just assumption.

[tokeweed]

^  And please know that I'm not complaining...  Just stating a fact.  And it would really help if we stop scamming ourselves and actually see what's up. 

...  Hyping the drone thing makes all of you look desperate tbh.

[birr]

Also why do people refer to crypto coins as he/him.  Should be,"why did it drop so much in value" not he....

Maybe English isn´t their first language.  I think most Romance languages, for example, don´t have a neuter third person singular pronoun.  The default is masculine:  il (French), el (Spanish) and so on.

[Febo]

Decoded message from outer space:  

As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

Millennials have plenty of money. And Gen Z that grow up with internet is right behind them.

Libra replacing shitcoins is an amusing narrative.

Libra will replace many coins, but not Monero and Bitcoin.

[Globb0]

...  Hyping the drone thing makes all of you look desperate tbh.

Well I never think I was hyping it. I'm just glad to see anyone suggesting real world usages for Monero.


Its like we lost a lot of profile since those heady days, especially when some key dev's went off to do different things.



Even after all this time shitcoins like darkcoin still persist. We really had faith in the people to spot them for the frauds they are/were. But yet they continue.


It is disappointing.

[dEBRUYNE]

...  Hyping the drone thing makes all of you look desperate tbh.

especially when some key dev's went off to do different things.

Are you talking about Monero? Because no key developers have left and your statement is thus erroneous.

[Globb0]

Maybe not in actual practice but FP made a specific fuss about peeling off the do his company thing. And stepping down etc.


Also all you guys went off to another forum (I know you are always here working hard - you had most of my merits over the years for it)


Just feels something lacking.

[dEBRUYNE]

Maybe not in actual practice but FP made a specific fuss about peeling off the do his company thing. And stepping down etc.

One of the main goals of Tari is Monero success. Fluffypony emphasized this in his latest presentation on Tari & Monero, which I strongly recommend to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

Additionally, he did not leave Monero. He is still actively participating in Monero's development.

Also all you guys went off to another forum (I know you are always here working hard - you had most of my merits over the years for it)

Most traffic is currently present on Reddit (r/monero for normal discussion and r/xmrtrader for investing / trading discussion). As far as I can see, this is simply a side-effect of people preferring Reddit over Bitcointalk nowadays. The latter has arguably also lost a lot of traffic over the years. Thus, I don't think the lower activity here is on purpose.

[joroz]

One of the main goals of Tari is Monero success. Fluffypony emphasized this in his latest presentation on Tari & Monero, which I strongly recommend to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

Additionally, he did not leave Monero. He is still actively participating in Monero's development.

Kind of like one of the main goals of Ticketmaster is the US dollar's success?  Please, it's a private company.  I'm glad it exists but let's not get carried away.