[XMR] Monero Speculation

[XMR2020]

I updated things on my nano S. All went smooth. Was tempted to buy Model T, but then will just have to keep two different hardware wallets development and updates. So I will give it a bit more thinking

Anyway is great Monero can be now stored on two hardware wallets.  Two years ago that was a dream.

Easy on device entry of a strong password is a valuable security feature and was enough for me to retire my Ledger. Many of the recent hardware wallet exploits are thwarted by a strong password, and it gives plausible deniability in case of the dreaded $5 wrench attack. This plausible deniability is especially strong in the case of monero, since nobody knows your address or balance. Unlimited private wallets on a single device. (although you can technically do this on ledger, the horrible user interface makes strong passwords impractical unless you are a masochist) Further, you can initialize your Trezor offline with python trezor, and load a custom seed generated with casino grade dice for the ultimate airgapped + HW wallet setup for multiple layers of defense.

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[yefi]

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

With Info on this one. Pseudonymity is a pill regulated markets will swallow. True anonymity, in contrast, will be spat up.

[Whtwabbit]

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

With Info on this one. Pseudonymity is a pill regulated markets will swallow. True anonymity, in contrast, will be spat up.

Capitulation?

[iCEBREAKER]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

[joroz]

I updated things on my nano S. All went smooth. Was tempted to buy Model T, but then will just have to keep two different hardware wallets development and updates. So I will give it a bit more thinking

Anyway is great Monero can be now stored on two hardware wallets.  Two years ago that was a dream.

Yeah nanoS here too.

I have just brought a cheap cable to connect it to my mobile for cash machine type usage when I cant access the PC. Great all good no need for the X right now.


 

More secure too. Can’t trust bluetooth with anything of value.

[dEBRUYNE]

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

With Info on this one. Pseudonymity is a pill regulated markets will swallow. True anonymity, in contrast, will be spat up.

See:

People often like to purport that Monero will inevitably get banned. However, the new FinCEN guidance is basically inconsistent with that notion. From the CoinCenter article:

Section 4.5.3 states that exchanges are not per se banned from using privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies but will need to comply with the same BSA regulations they comply with for typical cryptocurrencies. We believe that this is possible. Exchanges need to know their customers but they do not have a black letter law requirement to know the customers of their customers. In other words, a bank needs to know who you are but they are not obligated to know the name and address of people that you pay using cash you withdraw from your account.

https://coincenter.org/entry/fincen-s-new-cryptocurrency-guidance-matches-coin-center-recommendations

Arguably, this is long-term bullish for Monero.

[mindrust]

Posted as an impartial messenger, which means don’t presume I agree with the choice of wording or even the points made. Nevertheless the forum benefits from hearing all sides of an argument.

Shit I only realized after reading the part about segwit this was just another anonymint bullshit. (I wouldn't merit it if knew sooner)

I am kinda agreeing with the libra part though.

It is true it will have significant impact among the people who live in shitty countries with weak currencies.

Against libra, I believe bitcoin has a chance to succeed. Altcoins? I am not sure. However, among altcoins, monero is one of the best.

[yefi]

Capitulation?

As Mindrust has pointed out, the chart suggests 600K sat as the next pivot point.

[dEBRUYNE]

MoneroKon 2019 - Tari: Advancing Monero Through Ecosystem Development - by Riccardo 'fluffypony' Spagni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

[qwizzie]

MoneroKon 2019 - Tari: Advancing Monero Through Ecosystem Development - by Riccardo 'fluffypony' Spagni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmeSSnppixY

https://dashnews.org/monero-dev-fluffypony-imitates-dash-masternodes-with-tari-project/

[tokeweed]

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

With Info on this one. Pseudonymity is a pill regulated markets will swallow. True anonymity, in contrast, will be spat up.

Capitulation?

More like Tone Vays sold every XMR he had and made a video about how hates it, etc ,etc...  Just a hunch.  He's a trader and he prolly buys and sells alts to make BTC just like most of us.

[Hueristic]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

I don't trust a thing I see on that exchange anymore, I think its all smoke and mirrors using stolen coins to destroy Moneros value. It's completely controlled by institutional bankers with Zero accountability.

NO-one Should have coins on that exchange.

[TheKoziTwo]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

[Kryptowerk]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging.

[yefi]

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

Interesting. I had a sneaky suspicion those 300 BTC between 0.01 and 0.009 were yours?

Well, good luck.

[TheKoziTwo]

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging.

This is a long term perspective and irrelevant in short to medium term. My trades are usually medium term (e.g few months to a year). Admittedly I've not studied the Mimblewimble technology in great detail, but from what I have read it doesn't excite me all that much. Interactive payments (needing to be online) is pretty inconvenient, but the emission curve for GRIN is ridiculous and gets insta ignore from me for probably a few years. Similar to zcash, which I also put on automatic ignore for many years. It simply means there is no urgency for me to look into it.

I think the zcash technology (especially considering the new possibilities of removing trusted setup) is far more exciting and a more serious competitor. Not sure about zcash itself (dev rewards, not fair etc), but fluffy mentioned the possibility of monero adapting the technology in the future which goes to show that it's promising.

As for bitcoin implementing it? I have doubt it will happen on the base layer. More likely it can happen on a sidechain. But this is probably still years (?) away. They still haven't made sidechains trust-less. Liquid is federated, people don't want that (or shouldn't want that). So that needs to happen first and that will require a fork. It's just not happening anytime soon.

But let's imagine that it does happen and we get sidechain on bitcoin with whatever the very best privacy tech is? Is this game over for monero? Well, there's still an argument that can be made that having ALL transactions fungible is worth something. Moving funds into a black hole sidechain on bitcoin and back in itself can cause suspicion and/or become illegal, considered a form of money laundering etc. It's preferable to have the fungibility built in on the base layer. What COULD happen is that the sidechain becomes "the bitcoin" (what everyone uses) and practically nobody will use the original bitcoin chain anymore. That's far more interesting and could be some real competition. 

Realistically though, Monero will have many years left before this becomes an actual concern, and the first mover advantage will keep improving in the meantime. To be honest I am rooting for bitcoin to accomplish privacy, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm a speculator. I prefer to not get emotionally attached to my investments. So if I see the writing on the wall, I will act on it. I recognize that I am no future teller and can be wrong. It's likely I'll always keep at minimum a small hedge in monero, as I have had since the start. What I am talking about here though, is a nice entry, when everybody wants monero again, I'm getting the hell out.

[Hueristic]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

WTG, wish I had m0ar to send you but I'll remedy that shortly. Nice seeing you post.

[Hueristic]

Thanks for sharing. We are generally on the same page here.
I am curious though, how do are your thoughts on Mimblewimble, the first implementations (most importantly GRIN) and the chance, that MW might get implemented on Bitcoin. <- Definitly high hurdles for that happening, but assuming it will happen, how do you see XMR - does it still have a usecase?
Thinking about filling my bags of XMR, too. Just curious on what a self-proclaimed XMR whale has to say to the "threat" of other real-privacy/fungibility cryptos emerging.

This is a long term perspective and irrelevant in short to medium term. My trades are usually medium term (e.g few months to a year). Admittedly I've not studied the Mimblewimble technology in great detail, but from what I have read it doesn't excite me all that much. Interactive payments (needing to be online) is pretty inconvenient, but the emission curve for GRIN is ridiculous and gets insta ignore from me for probably a few years. Similar to zcash, which I also put on automatic ignore for many years. It simply means there is no urgency for me to look into it.

I hear you, I'm quite surprised it has held as long as it has. there are some serious whales propping that shit up and the dump is going to be epic and then it will be a nice long hold. Well thats as long as they can get the chain to transact again, funny they didn't set the version checking well enough and development outran their protocol so fast they killed their own eco system. A good sign I guess as it really does prove the Dev support is there for the long haul. I was thinking 1 and a half to 2 years before grabbing any but now I'm thinking possibly only 1. It's interesting to watch and do me a favor, PM me when you think entry is imminent. I value your opinion.

[Febo]

I just looked on monero.how and saw that minimum fee is $0.0027.  It is funny how things change if you work hard to change them.  Monero become easy to set up and use. Monero fees become microscopic. Monero blockchain become small ( under 25 gb) and can be synced in few hours. Monero emission inflation is going under Bitcoins and soon after under Golds mining inflation.   I wonder how long it will take for most people in crypto and this forum to realize this.   

[DaveyJones]

Capitulation?

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

Well said TK2