etotheipi (OP)
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May 24, 2012, 10:40:13 PM |
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Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!
Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.
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jgarzik
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May 24, 2012, 10:54:55 PM |
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Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!
Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.
bleh -- we need to look into transaction pruning...
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Jeff Garzik, Bloq CEO, former bitcoin core dev team; opinions are my own. Visit bloq.com / metronome.io Donations / tip jar: 1BrufViLKnSWtuWGkryPsKsxonV2NQ7Tcj
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etotheipi (OP)
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May 24, 2012, 10:59:24 PM |
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Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!
Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.
bleh -- we need to look into transaction pruning... I have always believed that this should be a priority, but many devs I've talked to insist that it's not. I wouldn't mind pioneering this in Armory if I can ever get networking-independence... I believe I came up with a solid way to not only prune, but also allow lightweight nodes to verify balances without downloading the entire chain! Don't want to derail this thread, but I appended it to the Scalable blockchain thread. I wouldn't mind seeing some more discussion about it (mine, as well as other proposals).
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Stephen Gornick
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June 05, 2012, 01:57:40 AM |
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Update OP?
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etotheipi (OP)
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June 05, 2012, 02:04:20 AM |
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Update OP?
Sorry, I've been slacking. I just updated it now. SD went through a rather dramatic swing the past few days: jumping above 1,500 BTC profit, and dropping back down to around 500. A spurt of large bets (50-100 BTC each) may be responsible... Also, I added a field "Profit only completed bets": it's because there seem to be some freezing issues with the service, such that hundreds of BTC in bets are getting backlogged, and the previous "Profit/Loss" fields were including those as profit. The third entry is now the important one: of all the bets that have been fully processed, SD has made about 650 BTC profit so far.
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Onichan
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June 05, 2012, 03:09:46 PM |
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Just read this, very informative and interesting thread. Thanks for the statistics.
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Sukrim
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June 15, 2012, 10:08:40 AM |
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This is just sick - I'm currently on very slow mobile internet and downloading hundreds of MB of SD spam TXs is leading up to a point where I'm currently considering very much not running a full bitcoind at all any more.
Just imagine having your internet line clogged for 1 hour or more EVERY DAY when booting up the PC and loading the latest blocks.
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Stephen Gornick
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June 15, 2012, 10:14:00 AM |
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This is just sick - I'm currently on very slow mobile internet and downloading hundreds of MB of SD spam TXs is leading up to a point where I'm currently considering very much not running a full bitcoind at all any more.
Ya, ... consider it progress though. The old ways that were not future-proofed go by the wayside and new ways emerge. You can run BitcoinSpinner instead, right?
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Sukrim
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June 15, 2012, 10:56:45 AM |
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Emails are also always just emails, regardless of content. Still I consider some as spam and some not.
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dooglus
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June 22, 2012, 08:05:53 PM |
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Here's the latest output: Results: 2012-Jun-22 12:50pm
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | Accounted-for ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 4941 | 0 (0.00000) | 4634 (1.00000) | 198 (0.04273) | (0.978) 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 635 | 0 (0.00000) | 470 (1.00000) | 59 (0.12553) | (0.833) 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1152 | 0 (0.00000) | 1016 (1.00000) | 30 (0.02953) | (0.908) 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 832 | 0 (0.00000) | 687 (1.00000) | 34 (0.04949) | (0.867) 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1119 | 0 (0.00000) | 910 (1.00000) | 26 (0.02857) | (0.836) 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 2842 | 1 (0.00038) | 2647 (0.99962) | 11 (0.00415) | (0.936) 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 4053 | 5 (0.00130) | 3850 (0.99870) | 15 (0.00389) | (0.955) 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 5460 | 11 (0.00209) | 5240 (0.99791) | 25 (0.00476) | (0.966) 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 4080 | 17 (0.00437) | 3869 (0.99563) | 11 (0.00283) | (0.955) 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 4903 | 29 (0.00615) | 4685 (0.99385) | 5 (0.00106) | (0.962) 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 5496 | 70 (0.01335) | 5172 (0.98665) | 1 (0.00019) | (0.954) 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 4677 | 94 (0.02126) | 4327 (0.97874) | 5 (0.00113) | (0.946) 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 4966 | 149 (0.03162) | 4563 (0.96838) | 3 (0.00064) | (0.949) 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 5063 | 239 (0.04973) | 4567 (0.95027) | 5 (0.00104) | (0.950) 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 4916 | 291 (0.06243) | 4370 (0.93757) | 3 (0.00064) | (0.949) 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 7813 | 699 (0.09334) | 6790 (0.90666) | 3 (0.00040) | (0.959) 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 6873 | 800 (0.12094) | 5815 (0.87906) | 0 (0.00000) | (0.962) 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 13042 | 2369 (0.18949) | 10133 (0.81051) | 3 (0.00024) | (0.959) 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 29846 | 7154 (0.24374) | 22197 (0.75626) | 4 (0.00014) | (0.984) 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 16400 | 5925 (0.37234) | 9988 (0.62766) | 23 (0.00145) | (0.972) 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 250677 | 121619 (0.48692) | 128151 (0.51308) | 111 (0.00044) | (0.997) 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 98548 | 48494 (0.50024) | 48447 (0.49976) | 47 (0.00048) | (0.984) 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 59464 | 43278 (0.73446) | 15647 (0.26554) | 24 (0.00041) | (0.991) 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 5614 | 4318 (0.97472) | 112 (0.02528) | 757 (0.17088) | (0.924) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 543412 |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Bets Made: 543412 Cumulative Wagers: 195424.98368132 BTC Cumulative Rewards: 193333.06261702 BTC Cumulative Fees Paid: 269.38745000 BTC Cumulative Unreturned: 2038.08327919 BTC ---- SD Profit/Loss From Games: 2091.92106430 BTC SD Profit/Loss With Fees: 1822.53361430 BTC Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 1509892 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1010485 (66.9%) Blockchain MB: 641.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 409.8 (63.9%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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June 22, 2012, 08:21:52 PM |
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Here's the latest output: Total Bets Made: 543412 Cumulative Wagers: 195424.98368132 BTC Cumulative Rewards: 193333.06261702 BTC Cumulative Fees Paid: 269.38745000 BTC Cumulative Unreturned: 2038.08327919 BTC ---- SD Profit/Loss From Games: 2091.92106430 BTC SD Profit/Loss With Fees: 1822.53361430 BTC
I don't know if that means they're up 2091 BTC but owe 2038 BTC in unreturned bets, or whether the 2091 BTC is profit.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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June 22, 2012, 09:17:56 PM |
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It looks like the 'Unreturned' amount needs to come out of the profits, meaning the site is still 200 BTC down. This explains the increase in the house edge, I guess. Here's how I think the picture really looks: Total Bets Made: 543412 Cumulative Wagers: 195424.98368132 BTC Cumulative Rewards: 193333.06261702 BTC Cumulative Fees Paid: 269.38745000 BTC Cumulative Unreturned: 2038.08327919 BTC ---- SD Profit on Completed Bets : -215.54966489 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 1509892 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1010485 (66.9%) Blockchain MB: 641.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 409.8 (63.9%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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etotheipi (OP)
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June 23, 2012, 01:42:22 AM |
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Thanks dooglus. I've been super busy and I accidentally deleted my most-recent updates to that script, and didn't feel like reimplementing it. I've been too busy trying to get out the next version of Armory.
You got the interpretation right: looks like SD is taking a really long time to process bets so there's a lot of unreturned bets piling up.
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dooglus
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June 23, 2012, 01:51:23 AM |
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Thanks dooglus. I've been super busy and I accidentally deleted my most-recent updates to that script, and didn't feel like reimplementing it. I've been too busy trying to get out the next version of Armory.
You got the interpretation right: looks like SD is taking a really long time to process bets so there's a lot of unreturned bets piling up.
I've not checked, but maybe it's not that they're not processing them, but that miners can't/won't keep up? Either way it would show up the same on the blockchain I think.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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tevirk
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June 23, 2012, 02:40:52 PM |
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Don't know if this is of interest to anyone -- growth in the block chain from the beginning of the year:
Block# Date Tx TxLeft Outputs OutputsLeft 160651 2012-01-05 2141909 537489 4958838 1265195 161701 2012-01-11 2184208 530150 5058211 1256418 162751 2012-01-18 2231239 535105 5167264 1265877 163801 2012-01-25 2277606 544932 5275969 1281789 164851 2012-02-01 2322666 551070 5383353 1296623 165901 2012-02-08 2370911 560104 5497425 1314422 166951 2012-02-15 2430945 570340 5638086 1335083 168001 2012-02-22 2479948 581100 5754867 1355583 169051 2012-02-29 2524194 589006 5866066 1375399 170101 2012-03-07 2573735 597328 5992463 1395833 171151 2012-03-14 2615923 603458 6103448 1410601 172201 2012-03-21 2661845 613033 6217395 1431445 173251 2012-03-28 2706242 624443 6328060 1452971 174301 2012-04-04 2756117 633395 6449913 1471912 175351 2012-04-12 2809748 642169 6579808 1487912 176401 2012-04-20 2872153 650236 6729451 1505063 177451 2012-04-27 2929045 658588 6866321 1521086 178501 2012-05-04 2991166 668820 7014679 1541885 179551 2012-05-10 3087103 676173 7233590 1559496 180601 2012-05-18 3239737 684265 7569078 1576859 181651 2012-05-26 3469896 698220 8067651 1606888 182701 2012-06-02 3654532 708385 8474595 1629500 183751 2012-06-09 3877115 718799 8956077 1648213 184801 2012-06-16 4179254 738515 9623716 1678629 185851 2012-06-23 4407499 758333 10153165 1714365
To clarify: the last four columns are the number of transactions, the number with still unspent outputs, the number of transaction outputs, and the number of transaction outputs still unspent. I hope it's accurate, the numbers look sane to me, and the code was fairly simple, but I could quite possibly have made a stupid mistake.
It's relevant to the various threads on scaling & blockchain efficiency.
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2112
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June 23, 2012, 04:54:37 PM |
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It's relevant to the various threads on scaling & blockchain efficiency.
Yes it is. It would be more relevant if you added two more columns TxBytes and TxBytesLeft. Those fields shouldn't simply count the transactions but the space required to store them. This will more driectly relate to the discussion in other threads.
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tevirk
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June 23, 2012, 08:42:30 PM |
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I would think the space required is pretty much in proportion to the number of transactions, but I could count that too. Unfortunately running the analysis seems to have messed up by blkindex somehow, so I'm held up while that regenerates.
What I wanted to find out was whether the number of outstanding transaction outputs was still increasing rapidly. If you plot a rolling average of the increase in the number of outstanding outputs per new transaction, it peaked at nearly 1 last September, dropped to 0.25 around January, grew to 0.4 in April and has slowly declined back to 0.25 again.
It's difficult to make sense of, but unless that ratio goes into a steady decline, it means that the number of outstanding balances to track is increasing rapidly along with the number of historical transactions. As I say, the data doesn't really show yet whether that's the case or not. We're adding 20,000 to the number of unspent transaction outputs each week lately, but a year ago, when transaction volume was much lower, we were adding 50,000 a week. If by some mechanism a node is storing only the unspent outputs, figure 70-80 bytes each, that would need 120MB, growing at 1.5MB / week. Meanwhile the blockchain is growing by 100MB / week (that's a rough estimate, I'll try to get real numbers tomorrow).
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dooglus
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June 24, 2012, 10:23:10 PM |
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I just noticed that the script that generates the statistics doesn't know that you can send 0.0054321 BTC to an address to set the payout address for your winnings. Around 10,000 bets have used this feature. Making the script aware of this rule changes the output as follows. Note that the 'Unreturned' amount is now much smaller. The script was previously considering all bets which had their payout address set manually to be "unreturned". before after
Total Bets Made: 556967 Total Bets Made: 556967 Cumulative Wagers: 199763.41276824 BTC Cumulative Wagers: 199763.41276824 BTC Cumulative Rewards: 197018.24357055 BTC Cumulative Rewards: 199551.66924577 BTC Cumulative Fees Paid: 275.21005000 BTC Cumulative Fees Paid: 280.25147500 BTC Cumulative Unreturned: 2650.14069182 BTC Cumulative Unreturned: 65.21685976 BTC ---- ---- SD Profit on Completed Bets : -180.18154413 BTC SD Profit on Completed Bets : -133.72481229 BTC ---- ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 1551815 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1033193 (66.6%) Blockchain Tx: 1551815 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1043244 (67.2%) Blockchain MB: 660.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 419.3 (63.5%) Blockchain MB: 660.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 423.4 (64.1%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Stephen Gornick
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June 24, 2012, 10:58:27 PM |
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I just noticed that the script that generates the statistics doesn't know that you can send 0.0054321 BTC to an address to set the payout address for your winnings. Good catch!
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byronbb
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June 25, 2012, 03:28:36 PM |
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This satoshidice guy is pretty unlucky.
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