etotheipi (OP)
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March 09, 2013, 01:46:12 AM |
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Yes, but I use the Armory code to load the blockchain to produce the reports. It loads the blockchain that the bitcoin-qt client writes to disk.
Dooglus, I should apologize that you got stuck with the original analysis script I wrote. It was intended half as "sample armoryengine.py code" and half "Let's see how much information we can deduce about SD." As such, I implemented the search on the python side which was much simpler but painfully slow. If I'd done it "right", it could've been on the C++ side, where it's literally about 100x faster. Oh well. If it's a problem, I might be able to outsource some of the search code to C++ for you... this thread has become important enough... Even though I started the thread, I have been watching with great interest, and appreciate that you took over when I had no more time. I just sent you a donation for the value you have provided me (regardless of whether you think it's weird that I'd be donating to you for this ).
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dooglus
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March 09, 2013, 05:12:47 AM |
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Dooglus, I should apologize that you got stuck with the original analysis script I wrote. It was intended half as "sample armoryengine.py code" and half "Let's see how much information we can deduce about SD." As such, I implemented the search on the python side which was much simpler but painfully slow. If I'd done it "right", it could've been on the C++ side, where it's literally about 100x faster. Oh well. If it's a problem, I might be able to outsource some of the search code to C++ for you... this thread has become important enough... Even though I started the thread, I have been watching with great interest, and appreciate that you took over when I had no more time. I just sent you a donation for the value you have provided me (regardless of whether you think it's weird that I'd be donating to you for this ). Thanks a lot for the donation. I modified the script so that it saves its state between runs, so it only needs to search the new blocks each time I run it. The vast majority of the time it takes it loading the blockchain files, which is all done in C++ anyway. I guess if there was some way of just loading the newest bits of the blockchain that would speed it up a lot, but it's really not an issue at the moment to load the blockchain into your script once a day. All I do at the moment to load the blockchain is: TheBDM.setBlocking(True) TheBDM.setOnlineMode(True)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Syke
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March 09, 2013, 05:24:44 AM |
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Is it possible that an SD conspirator is running a bot to inflate the numbers? Would such a graph reveal it if it were true?
It would be like a casino handing a stack of chips to an employee to go play at the casino so that the casino doesn't appear empty. Whether they win or lose, the employee hands whatever chips he has left back to the casino. The only cost to inflate the activity graphs would be the transaction fee, a minimal .0005 BTC at this time. There is no way to tell if there is an insider placing SD bets.
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Buy & Hold
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etotheipi (OP)
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March 09, 2013, 05:27:22 AM |
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Thanks a lot for the donation. I modified the script so that it saves its state between runs, so it only needs to search the new blocks each time I run it. The vast majority of the time it takes it loading the blockchain files, which is all done in C++ anyway. I guess if there was some way of just loading the newest bits of the blockchain that would speed it up a lot, but it's really not an issue at the moment to load the blockchain into your script once a day. All I do at the moment to load the blockchain is: TheBDM.setBlocking(True) TheBDM.setOnlineMode(True) Yeah, and there's no reason it can't collect the SD statistics as it does that first blockchain load. Then it'd be done before you run any code after "setOnlineMode". Unfortunately, it's not as simple as just adding the addresses to the initial scan wallet, because you need to ignore non-bet transactions. It would require altering the C++ scan loops, but I bet it wouldn't be too terrible... But other priorities call. If it is running okay, then why fix it if it ain't broken!
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StarenseN
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March 09, 2013, 10:30:58 AM |
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Is it possible that an SD conspirator is running a bot to inflate the numbers? Would such a graph reveal it if it were true?
It would be like a casino handing a stack of chips to an employee to go play at the casino so that the casino doesn't appear empty. Whether they win or lose, the employee hands whatever chips he has left back to the casino. The only cost to inflate the activity graphs would be the transaction fee, a minimal .0005 BTC at this time. There is no way to tell if there is an insider placing SD bets. + 13% of 1.9% (0.25%) of each bets, theorically, that goes to the shareholders.
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dooglus
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March 09, 2013, 07:00:27 PM |
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+ 13% of 1.9% (0.25%) of each bets, theorically, that goes to the shareholders.
- (3 million shares) * (temporary price increase due to 'whale' business)... This guy uses address "1Lucky..." and lived up to his name: Mar 9 05:57:31 2013 <32000 85bae6cd4926ebd8:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 128.00000000 LOSE -127.36000000 Mar 9 06:25:18 2013 <32000 300695f8664aa659:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 256.00000000 WIN 256.98508800
Mar 9 06:46:52 2013 <32000 334e52c5be795dbd:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 12.80000000 LOSE -12.73600000 Mar 9 07:37:30 2013 <32000 373c5a4ea42e2a01:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 25.60000000 LOSE -25.47200000 Mar 9 08:02:35 2013 <32000 fb7d684cf4a9ce7a:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 51.20000000 LOSE -50.94400000 Mar 9 08:48:26 2013 <32000 812c0388ea7dd045:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 102.40000000 LOSE -101.88800000 Mar 9 09:57:08 2013 <32000 31ff8650d4c9489b:0 1LuckyWwuK7CMF9PveFT4ZXbBcDz6xripS BET 250.00000000 WIN 250.96200000 Total of 86 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Mar-09 10:58am (up to block 225040)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 97152 | 1 (0.00001) | 95634 | 1517 | 1119.83 | 1280.08 | 120.41 | -160.24 | 114.310 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5121 | 0 (0.00000) | 4603 | 518 | 85.83 | 0.01 | 18.66 | 85.81 | 0.022 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7574 | 1 (0.00014) | 7122 | 451 | 114.30 | 159.99 | 11.90 | -45.68 | 139.970 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 11653 | 5 (0.00045) | 11192 | 456 | 213.64 | 431.92 | 10.07 | -218.28 | 202.173 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 13291 | 1 (0.00008) | 12855 | 435 | 445.51 | 4.80 | 22.06 | 440.71 | 1.079 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 16523 | 6 (0.00037) | 16118 | 399 | 912.64 | 813.76 | 1.38 | 98.87 | 89.166 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 18233 | 19 (0.00107) | 17753 | 461 | 1335.44 | 451.88 | 55.81 | 883.55 | 33.838 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19313 | 36 (0.00191) | 18823 | 454 | 2320.36 | 1547.60 | 48.37 | 772.75 | 66.697 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24086 | 105 (0.00443) | 23597 | 384 | 4568.04 | 7357.22 | 13.20 | -2789.17 | 161.058 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 33043 | 266 (0.00822) | 32080 | 697 | 5672.91 | 5648.39 | 10.01 | 24.51 | 99.568 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 115117 | 1753 (0.01529) | 112860 | 504 | 35590.18 | 30846.98 | 2.04 | 4743.20 | 86.673 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24365 | 562 (0.02341) | 23448 | 355 | 7631.70 | 8099.77 | 15.08 | -468.06 | 106.133 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 72279 | 2237 (0.03112) | 69646 | 396 | 36543.12 | 33222.67 | 9.36 | 3320.44 | 90.914 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28518 | 1291 (0.04596) | 26796 | 431 | 9179.81 | 9984.92 | 25.17 | -805.11 | 108.771 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34345 | 2093 (0.06164) | 31861 | 391 | 7598.04 | 7417.35 | 31.35 | 180.68 | 97.622 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 45842 | 4196 (0.09241) | 41208 | 438 | 15866.18 | 17651.54 | 7.26 | -1785.36 | 111.253 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 178249 | 21829 (0.12281) | 155921 | 499 | 90199.82 | 88782.54 | 100.44 | 1417.27 | 98.429 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 90638 | 16512 (0.18324) | 73600 | 526 | 169197.82 | 170921.55 | 3314.87 | -1723.72 | 101.019 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 237109 | 57692 (0.24388) | 178865 | 552 | 364087.04 | 350390.40 | 2322.40 | 13696.63 | 96.238 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 237963 | 87363 (0.36802) | 150022 | 578 | 581768.79 | 573520.67 | 1013.21 | 8248.12 | 98.582 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1099758 | 535923 (0.48802) | 562229 | 1606 | 860965.50 | 843529.06 | 2924.81 | 17436.44 | 97.975 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 583613 | 291108 (0.49973) | 291418 | 1087 | 655894.15 | 640298.75 | 6521.08 | 15595.40 | 97.622 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 328447 | 240980 (0.73509) | 86843 | 624 | 296658.23 | 289324.90 | 5455.24 | 7333.32 | 97.528 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 72889 | 57448 (0.79373) | 14929 | 512 | 60651.44 | 59310.90 | 1187.54 | 1340.53 | 97.790 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 60565 | 51370 (0.85611) | 8634 | 561 | 76590.30 | 75963.79 | 400.50 | 626.51 | 99.182 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 92530 | 84292 (0.91632) | 7698 | 540 | 69985.13 | 69198.68 | 0.48 | 786.45 | 98.876 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 16214 | 14842 (0.97980) | 306 | 1066 | 23943.27 | 23532.23 | 240.15 | 411.03 | 98.283 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3451151 | 1419961 | 2015044 | 16146 | 755615.95 | 741416.20 | 254.28 | 14199.75 | 98.121 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 113279 | 51970 | 61017 | 292 | 2623523.18 | 2568276.27 | 23628.70 | 55246.91 | 97.894 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3564430 | 1471931 | 2076061 | 16438 | 3379139.13 | 3309692.47 | 23882.98 | 69446.66 | 97.945 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 69446.66155124 BTC (2.055%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2765.15607500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 66681.50547624 BTC (1.973%) Pending Liabilities: -6.70932707 BTC Final SD Profit: 66688.21480331 BTC (1.974%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 11233556 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6566436 (58.5%) Blockchain MB: 4818.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 2696.8 (56.0%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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misterbigg
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March 09, 2013, 07:06:56 PM |
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+ 13% of 1.9% (0.25%) of each bets, theorically, that goes to the shareholders. If the cost of running a collusion bot (increased transaction fees plus payouts to shareholders) is less than the expected gain in value from share price appreciation, then running the bot would be profitable. How do we interpret this graph? It looks like SatoshiDICE is consistently beating expectations. Over time shouldn't the actual revenue be very close to the red line (house edge)? Why is it so much higher? And why is it that in two particular months there was a large jump in the activity (i.e. change in slope)? Is this an indicator of botting?
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dooglus
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March 09, 2013, 07:24:03 PM |
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How do we interpret this graph? It looks like SatoshiDICE is consistently beating expectations. Over time shouldn't the actual revenue be very close to the red line (house edge)? Why is it so much higher? And why is it that in two particular months there was a large jump in the activity (i.e. change in slope)? Is this an indicator of botting?
The red and black lines are pretty close together (61k vs 66k). Notice that zero is a few miles off the bottom of the graph, and the graph is auto-scaled to make the best use of space. House profits are about 5k higher than they should be, or less than 10% higher than they should be. A few big losses will correct for that. If you look at the graph for January you'll see the red and black lines cross each other at least 17 times, meaning the house was doing exactly as expected. In general the slope of the two lines should roughly match each other. The law of large numbers says that the two lines will get arbitrarily close to each other in the long run, but we're not at the "long run" yet, when a single bet can change the total house profits by more than 1%. The whale lost big in the beginning of February, which put the black line well above the red line, where it has stayed since. December and January saw a lot of betting activity from one user, which made the profit graph jump up and down erratically and made the red line go steeper than usual. It was almost certainly a bot, just because I doubt if a person would have the stamina to keep up such a level of play for so long. Whether it was a "house bot" or a real player it's impossible to prove. Erik says it's a real player and I believe him.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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wisard
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March 09, 2013, 07:34:25 PM |
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I thought the house edge was based on the number of bets. And not on the amount of betting.
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Buy me a beer or 2 if you enjoy my posts. BTC address: 1976Nb5u1T2haoxSZnJgHaemHYYtgKmTsU
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BitcoinHoarder
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March 09, 2013, 08:50:45 PM |
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All bets * (1-.981). That is roughly how much the house is expected to rake.
Think of SatoshiDice as a laundrer, it returns you 98% (roughly) of your money over time. Now some people play wierdly trying to "beat the numbers" and they might actually lose 100% of their money. That sweetens Satoshi's profits. But as Dooglus has shown, pretty much it's just laundering and taking a 1.9% fee.
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dooglus
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March 09, 2013, 09:32:01 PM |
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I thought the house edge was based on the number of bets. And not on the amount of betting.
The house keeps 1.9% of all bets, on average. If a million people bet 1 BTC each, or 100k people bet 10 BTC each, the total bet volume is 1 million BTC either way, and the house will keep 19k BTC on average in both cases. Does that make sense?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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wisard
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March 09, 2013, 10:22:49 PM |
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I thought the house edge was based on the number of bets. And not on the amount of betting.
The house keeps 1.9% of all bets, on average. If a million people bet 1 BTC each, or 100k people bet 10 BTC each, the total bet volume is 1 million BTC either way, and the house will keep 19k BTC on average in both cases. Does that make sense? Thanks. But this assumes that the average bet will remain in the same range. My contention is that the average bet will keep on reducing as the BTC / USD rate keeps on increasing. The amount of total BTC bet on the first 100,000 bets will be higher than the amount of BTC made on the next 100,000. (I have not looked at the numbers and I don't know if I'm right or wrong, it just feels that way to me intuitively.) If I'm right, then the gap between the black line and the red line won't go away as more time goes by.
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Buy me a beer or 2 if you enjoy my posts. BTC address: 1976Nb5u1T2haoxSZnJgHaemHYYtgKmTsU
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dooglus
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March 10, 2013, 02:35:00 AM |
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If a million people bet 1 BTC each, or 100k people bet 10 BTC each, the total bet volume is 1 million BTC either way, and the house will keep 19k BTC on average in both cases.
But this assumes that the average bet will remain in the same range. My contention is that the average bet will keep on reducing as the BTC / USD rate keeps on increasing. The amount of total BTC bet on the first 100,000 bets will be higher than the amount of BTC made on the next 100,000. (I have not looked at the numbers and I don't know if I'm right or wrong, it just feels that way to me intuitively.) I don't think anything I said assumes anything about the average bet size. I don't have data readily available about the average bet size, but I do have the total amount bet over time. Here's a graph showing the total bet volume over time since September last year when the price was down around $10/BTC. Notice how the slope of the line (indicating bet volume per unit time) is about the same now as it was then. There are a few very steep parts from when the whale was playing, but the overall volume doesn't seem to be affected by the dollar value of Bitcoins, odd as that seems. Maybe the price goes up because more people are using it, so more people are betting, which offsets the small size per bet, but that's just a guess.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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March 10, 2013, 04:16:32 AM |
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I don't have data readily available about the average bet size
... but I do now. This graph shows the moving average bet size (in BTC) over the previous 7 days: I also tried using a 1-day window, but it's very spiky: and here's the average over the previous 28 days:
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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March 10, 2013, 05:32:56 AM |
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I don't have data readily available about the average bet size
... but I do now. This is where boxplots or violin plots might be more useful. If you're not sure what I mean (and tbh I haven't exactly explained myself well) if you post the data (or pm me) I'll post some examples.
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dooglus
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March 10, 2013, 08:20:25 AM |
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This is where boxplots or violin plots might be more useful. If you're not sure what I mean (and tbh I haven't exactly explained myself well) if you post the data (or pm me) I'll post some examples.
http://dooglus.com/sd-data.txt.gz has 2 numbers per line. Time (seconds since 1970) and average bet size in the block with that timestamp: 1362850998 0.0800365152562 1362851859 0.44658473297 1362852003 5.26315630659e-05
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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hashman
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March 10, 2013, 08:24:14 AM |
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All bets * (1-.981). That is roughly how much the house is expected to rake.
Think of SatoshiDice as a laundrer, it returns you 98% (roughly) of your money over time. Now some people play wierdly trying to "beat the numbers" and they might actually lose 100% of their money. That sweetens Satoshi's profits. But as Dooglus has shown, pretty much it's just laundering and taking a 1.9% fee.
Thanks for the stats folks It also might be interesting to see what fraction of users are selecting to have winnings routed to another address. If the money goes back to the same address, it's hardly a very useful launderer.
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dooglus
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March 10, 2013, 08:32:05 AM |
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It also might be interesting to see what fraction of users are selecting to have winnings routed to another address. If the money goes back to the same address, it's hardly a very useful launderer.
Well, if I send my money to satoshidice with a public note saying "send my winnings back to 1MyOtherSecretAddress so they don't know it's me" then that's not a very useful laundry either. I've seen this "SDICE launders money" argument before, but I think it's bogus. Everything they do is public, so is absolutely not laundering money.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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March 10, 2013, 08:43:23 AM |
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This is where boxplots or violin plots might be more useful. If you're not sure what I mean (and tbh I haven't exactly explained myself well) if you post the data (or pm me) I'll post some examples.
http://dooglus.com/sd-data.txt.gz has 2 numbers per line. Time (seconds since 1970) and average bet size in the block with that timestamp: 1362850998 0.0800365152562 1362851859 0.44658473297 1362852003 5.26315630659e-05 Is it possible paste a list of all bets, rather than the average size per time period (I'm guessing it's per block)?
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dooglus
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March 10, 2013, 09:02:49 PM Last edit: March 11, 2013, 04:54:19 AM by dooglus |
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Is it possible paste a list of all bets, rather than the average size per time period (I'm guessing it's per block)?
I don't have a list of all bets but can generate it. I'm a little busy at the moment getting ready to give back $82k that I've become kind of attached to tomorrow. But I'll prepare the bet list when I get a chance. Total of 24 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Mar-10 01:58pm (up to block 225242)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 97797 | 1 (0.00001) | 96258 | 1538 | 1128.50 | 1280.12 | 122.46 | -151.61 | 113.435 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5152 | 0 (0.00000) | 4632 | 520 | 87.00 | 0.02 | 19.91 | 86.98 | 0.028 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7607 | 1 (0.00014) | 7153 | 453 | 114.74 | 159.99 | 12.83 | -45.24 | 139.433 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 11922 | 5 (0.00044) | 11460 | 457 | 223.84 | 431.97 | 10.07 | -208.13 | 192.980 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 13552 | 1 (0.00008) | 13113 | 438 | 454.34 | 4.85 | 22.06 | 449.49 | 1.068 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 17221 | 6 (0.00036) | 16815 | 400 | 940.35 | 813.90 | 1.38 | 126.44 | 86.553 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 18504 | 19 (0.00105) | 18022 | 463 | 1351.72 | 451.96 | 55.81 | 899.76 | 33.436 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19441 | 36 (0.00190) | 18949 | 456 | 2329.67 | 1547.65 | 48.38 | 782.02 | 66.432 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24171 | 105 (0.00441) | 23682 | 384 | 4574.58 | 7357.25 | 13.20 | -2782.67 | 160.829 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 33135 | 266 (0.00820) | 32172 | 697 | 5681.90 | 5648.44 | 10.01 | 33.46 | 99.411 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 116106 | 1765 (0.01527) | 113829 | 512 | 35674.60 | 30946.84 | 2.05 | 4727.76 | 86.748 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24440 | 564 (0.02342) | 23520 | 356 | 7642.67 | 8116.88 | 15.09 | -474.20 | 106.205 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 73050 | 2269 (0.03123) | 70385 | 396 | 36599.03 | 33294.69 | 9.36 | 3304.34 | 90.972 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28583 | 1295 (0.04601) | 26853 | 435 | 9185.74 | 9992.64 | 25.17 | -806.90 | 108.784 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34384 | 2095 (0.06163) | 31898 | 391 | 7601.72 | 7417.69 | 31.35 | 184.03 | 97.579 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 46102 | 4217 (0.09235) | 41447 | 438 | 15893.24 | 17665.29 | 7.26 | -1772.04 | 111.150 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 179501 | 21980 (0.12280) | 157017 | 504 | 90316.60 | 88902.10 | 100.45 | 1414.49 | 98.434 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 91901 | 16749 (0.18331) | 74622 | 530 | 169299.83 | 171039.94 | 3314.87 | -1740.10 | 101.028 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 238889 | 58142 (0.24395) | 180193 | 554 | 364448.62 | 350823.74 | 2322.40 | 13624.88 | 96.262 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 240217 | 88169 (0.36793) | 151469 | 579 | 582144.14 | 573880.85 | 1013.21 | 8263.28 | 98.581 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1104941 | 538454 (0.48803) | 564867 | 1620 | 865098.75 | 847579.77 | 2924.87 | 17518.97 | 97.975 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 590929 | 294737 (0.49970) | 295093 | 1099 | 656935.31 | 641231.25 | 6521.11 | 15704.05 | 97.609 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 332680 | 244096 (0.73511) | 87959 | 625 | 297266.69 | 289904.63 | 5455.25 | 7362.06 | 97.523 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 73546 | 57965 (0.79370) | 15066 | 515 | 60823.13 | 59474.12 | 1187.54 | 1349.00 | 97.782 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 61170 | 51901 (0.85640) | 8703 | 566 | 76787.21 | 76164.40 | 400.52 | 622.81 | 99.189 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 94091 | 85718 (0.91627) | 7833 | 540 | 70164.87 | 69369.23 | 0.48 | 795.64 | 98.866 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 16365 | 14974 (0.97972) | 310 | 1081 | 23964.48 | 23553.02 | 240.17 | 411.45 | 98.283 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3481872 | 1433439 | 2032178 | 16255 | 760085.53 | 745835.80 | 258.71 | 14249.73 | 98.125 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 113525 | 52091 | 61142 | 292 | 2626647.87 | 2571217.53 | 23628.70 | 55430.33 | 97.890 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3595397 | 1485530 | 2093320 | 16547 | 3386733.40 | 3317053.33 | 23887.41 | 69680.07 | 97.943 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 69680.07288378 BTC (2.057%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2796.14317500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 66883.92970878 BTC (1.975%) Pending Liabilities: -5.93485875 BTC Final SD Profit: 66889.86456753 BTC (1.975%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 11312047 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6621333 (58.5%) Blockchain MB: 4853.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 2720.6 (56.1%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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