Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2016, 07:54:57 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 ... 81 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177178 times)
dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 18, 2012, 07:55:14 PM
 #281

I've often posted logs of silly martingale sequences in the past, marvelling at how anyone could be so foolish as to keep doubling their bet over and over.  I never before experienced it first hand - until now.

I was physically shaking as I entered the last couple of bets.  I've never before bet over $600 on the roll of a dice.  I got lucky, and really think I ought to retire from this game now.  It's quite a buzz, but too dangerous for my liking:


1481054097
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481054097

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481054097
Reply with quote  #2

1481054097
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481054097
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481054097

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481054097
Reply with quote  #2

1481054097
Report to moderator
1481054097
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481054097

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481054097
Reply with quote  #2

1481054097
Report to moderator
boonies4u
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 826



View Profile
September 18, 2012, 09:38:16 PM
 #282

It's just that you guys aren't playing with enough coin. Tongue
Carlos L.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 952


View Profile
September 18, 2012, 09:42:26 PM
 #283

It's just that you guys aren't playing with enough coin. Tongue
Bets get big very quickly.
dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 18, 2012, 10:07:52 PM
 #284

It's just that you guys aren't playing with enough coin. Tongue

I think I was prepared to go up to the maximum bet.  Even if you have lots of coin you still run up against the house limits eventually.  I was only 2 doubles away from the 250 BTC max (which is why I started at 0.122 - it reaches just less than 250 BTC if you keep doubling).

The-Real-Link
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 530



View Profile
September 18, 2012, 11:07:17 PM
 #285

Yeah Doog... saw that post.  Creepy as all get out.  It's like they're mocking you for doing the impossible and getting a 0 because it's freaky!

A cautionary congrats on that bet!  I certainly know I've never dared risk that much coin on any bets I've done - then again I've not really owned tons so dumping 30+ at once for me is pretty much a no-go... Oh I can imagine sweating and being quite nervous doing that for sure! 

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
Diablo
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 54


View Profile
September 19, 2012, 01:13:03 AM
 #286

I've often posted logs of silly martingale sequences in the past, marvelling at how anyone could be so foolish as to keep doubling their bet over and over.  I never before experienced it first hand - until now.

I was physically shaking as I entered the last couple of bets.  I've never before bet over $600 on the roll of a dice.  I got lucky, and really think I ought to retire from this game now.  It's quite a buzz, but too dangerous for my liking:

http://i.imgur.com/hsbFK.png?2

Same thing happened with me.
I was shaking and sweating like crazy.

Unfortunately, I never won.

I never played again any kind of game that I can, and will, lose a whole bunch of money.

This time it wasn't that much money, but it was enough to teach me a lesson.
I just started too and it is such an amazing thrill. I think I've only reached a 40 BTC bet at one point though.
The worst part is that I can't stop now because I'm still ahead.
Bugpowder
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 394


View Profile
September 19, 2012, 01:35:11 AM
 #287

Looks like the whale is back...

 Shocked

Details   Processed   Bet   Bet Tx   Pay Tx   Address   Pay Status   Bet Amount   Result   Payment Amount   Lucky

Details   2012-09-19 01:25:23   lessthan 16000   fb661670   2e1996bc   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   48127
Details   2012-09-19 01:24:54   lessthan 16000   244cebac   b1f67a09   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   18188
Details   2012-09-19 01:23:42   lessthan 16000   b40f7d11   6034716a   13D2n1t   PENDING   200.00000000   LOSE   0.99950000   47050
Details   2012-09-19 01:17:19   lessthan 32000   115490cb   ebd0c021   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   14107
Details   2012-09-19 01:16:41   lessthan 32000   65ea1a91   870ffbbb   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   44256
Details   2012-09-19 01:12:33   lessthan 32000   b29497f9   eeb59a7f   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   31353
Details   2012-09-19 01:11:10   lessthan 32000   3b0ea5c5   fe1e1638   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   3830
Details   2012-09-19 01:10:44   lessthan 32000   e7a84423   faa8fe0e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   52194
Details   2012-09-19 01:09:46   lessthan 32000   020b54e2   2389fe72   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   63716
Details   2012-09-18 21:46:20   lessthan 32000   5fad9ea9   8a4e89ee   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   7141
Details   2012-09-18 21:36:34   lessthan 32000   a725220c   76e0b2f1   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   29321
Details   2012-09-18 21:35:02   lessthan 32000   a9883ae2   cfbc0b9e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   12317
Details   2012-09-18 21:34:12   lessthan 32000   7ae48528   56db31c8   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   40164
Details   2012-09-18 21:33:35   lessthan 32000   a6405952   5aa2e924   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   54229


http://blockchain.info/address/13D2n1tA6oJ56EG7SkzSsG9zEwwfo1v63k

boonies4u
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 826



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 02:16:49 AM
 #288

It's just that you guys aren't playing with enough coin. Tongue

I think I was prepared to go up to the maximum bet.  Even if you have lots of coin you still run up against the house limits eventually.  I was only 2 doubles away from the 250 BTC max (which is why I started at 0.122 - it reaches just less than 250 BTC if you keep doubling).

Sorry, Satoshi Dice isn't letting you play with enough coin then.
dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 04:05:47 AM
 #289

A cautionary congrats on that bet!  I certainly know I've never dared risk that much coin on any bets I've done - then again I've not really owned tons so dumping 30+ at once for me is pretty much a no-go... Oh I can imagine sweating and being quite nervous doing that for sure! 

It's surprising how quick the bet size increases when you're doubling.  I was aware of myself rushing to bet as quick as I could so I wouldn't have time to stop myself.  And also aware of how stupid I was being.

I got lucky, and really hope I can hold on to my winnings.

I just started too and it is such an amazing thrill. I think I've only reached a 40 BTC bet at one point though.
The worst part is that I can't stop now because I'm still ahead.

Isn't that exactly the right time to stop?

I'll post an updated graph once the script finishes running, in an attempt to get us back on-topic.  Smiley

dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 04:30:06 AM
 #290

Looks like the whale is back...

Looks like he pretty much broke even:

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-18 09:25pm (up to block 199479)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    20806 |      0 (0.00000) |  20446 |     360 |     180.39 |       0.01 |    31.56 |    180.37 |   0.011
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1753 |      0 (0.00000) |   1680 |      73 |      24.60 |       0.00 |     6.88 |     24.60 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2345 |      0 (0.00000) |   2309 |      36 |      28.85 |       0.02 |     3.72 |     28.83 |   0.092
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2487 |      1 (0.00041) |   2442 |      44 |      51.57 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     43.50 |  15.637
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2515 |      1 (0.00040) |   2478 |      36 |      90.71 |       4.24 |     7.40 |     86.46 |   4.684
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5467 |      3 (0.00055) |   5452 |      12 |     379.62 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     76.30 |  79.901
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7831 |      8 (0.00102) |   7801 |      22 |     645.61 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    521.22 |  19.267
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     9976 |     19 (0.00192) |   9902 |      55 |    1596.56 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    321.92 |  79.836
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9865 |     43 (0.00437) |   9808 |      14 |    1285.55 |    1302.33 |    13.11 |    -16.78 | 101.305
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15023 |    115 (0.00766) |  14899 |       9 |    2636.73 |    2003.56 |     9.35 |    633.17 |  75.986
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    28847 |    432 (0.01498) |  28404 |      11 |    8294.58 |    7685.78 |     1.80 |    608.79 |  92.660
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    14993 |    341 (0.02275) |  14646 |       6 |    4698.21 |    4854.95 |    15.00 |   -156.74 | 103.336
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22495 |    696 (0.03095) |  21795 |       4 |    5478.66 |    4643.51 |     9.24 |    835.14 |  84.756
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15138 |    697 (0.04607) |  14433 |       8 |    6777.11 |    8057.18 |    24.99 |  -1280.06 | 118.888
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15706 |    968 (0.06165) |  14734 |       4 |    4637.33 |    4114.69 |    31.20 |    522.64 |  88.730
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20846 |   1953 (0.09377) |  18875 |      18 |    9991.90 |    9888.90 |     7.01 |    103.00 |  98.969
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    81879 |  10082 (0.12317) |  71775 |      22 |   10077.84 |    8658.34 |     0.00 |   1419.50 |  85.915
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20775 |   3900 (0.18784) |  16862 |      13 |    8163.45 |    8365.73 |    14.50 |   -202.28 | 102.478
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    78436 |  19087 (0.24341) |  59327 |      22 |   46522.16 |   45475.12 |   347.79 |   1047.03 |  97.749
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    59132 |  21712 (0.36745) |  37377 |      43 |   29031.22 |   28310.79 |   212.64 |    720.43 |  97.518
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   508621 | 247991 (0.48798) | 260206 |     424 |  308220.56 |  306944.46 |  2173.40 |   1276.09 |  99.586
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   188393 |  93814 (0.49841) |  94413 |     166 |  183705.10 |  182394.34 |  1295.21 |   1310.75 |  99.286
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   147928 | 108812 (0.73594) |  39042 |      74 |  140853.77 |  138721.88 |   467.98 |   2131.89 |  98.486
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11532 |   9161 (0.79474) |   2366 |       5 |   20146.02 |   20047.39 |   400.00 |     98.62 |  99.510
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11111 |   9511 (0.85731) |   1583 |      17 |   10906.33 |   10681.02 |   400.00 |    225.31 |  97.934
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5259 |   4809 (0.91565) |    443 |       7 |    9089.23 |    9032.99 |     0.00 |     56.24 |  99.381
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7524 |   7239 (0.97996) |    148 |     137 |   16268.05 |   15990.81 |   239.21 |    277.24 |  98.296
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1272403 | 519087           | 751883 |    1433 |  317798.98 |  309098.42 |   145.59 |   8700.55 |  97.262
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44280 |  22308           |  21763 |     209 |  511982.87 |  509790.15 |  5673.35 |   2192.71 |  99.572
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1316683 | 541395           | 773646 |    1642 |  829781.86 |  818888.58 |  5818.94 |  10893.27 |  98.687
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10893.27917707 BTC (1.313%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         663.32725000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10229.95192707 BTC (1.233%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4332144  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2439765  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:  1794.7  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 996.6  (55.5%)


BlueCombWindow
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 33


View Profile
September 19, 2012, 05:56:02 AM
 #291

I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.
zvs
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386



View Profile WWW
September 19, 2012, 10:52:39 AM
 #292

I've often posted logs of silly martingale sequences in the past, marvelling at how anyone could be so foolish as to keep doubling their bet over and over.  I never before experienced it first hand - until now.

I was physically shaking as I entered the last couple of bets.  I've never before bet over $600 on the roll of a dice.  I got lucky, and really think I ought to retire from this game now.  It's quite a buzz, but too dangerous for my liking:



hmm, you were betting 'under 24000' though, so each time you doubled up, your profit also increased.  You'd only need to increase your bet about 35% each time...   So you made about 40 bitcoins profit?   martingale as it's defined would have resulted in a gain of just 0.122... and a bet of ~0.165 on your 2nd round..

ed:  well, wait, I'm wrong, since your initial bet was 0.122, you were trying to win 0.326, so the 0.326 + bets already lost is what you would bet for on each subsequent round

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

Dacentec, best deals for US dedicated servers. They regularly restock $20-$25 Opterons with 8-16GB RAM & 2x1-2TB HDD's (ofc, usually lots of other good stuff to choose from).  I did a Serverbear benchmark of one of my $20/mo Opteron (June last year), it's here.  Have had about a half dozen different servers with Dacentec, & none have failed to sustain at least 40MB/s (burst higher). My favorite is a 12-month rent-to-own ZT Systems 2XL5520 16GB 2x2TB SATA for $40/month (got lucky with the 'off-brand', haven't seen a RTO 2xL5520 for under $50/mo since -- at least for monthly contracts).  wholesaleinternet.com has some ancient 2-core intel CPUs @ $10/mo sometimes (I got an Intel Core 2 6300 @ 1.86GHz, with a 250GB HDD with 46000 hours on it, LOL. $20 @ Dacentec is much better, if you can grab one). joesdatacenter.com (same location as Wholesale Internet) also occasionally has specials (or if you don't want to wait, it has an AMD Opteron 170 @ $16/mo).
Bugpowder
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 394


View Profile
September 19, 2012, 12:45:05 PM
 #293

I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

LOL better strategy.

Best strat is don't play. Second best is max bet one time.

Given the number of bet odds subsets, and the total number of
Bets, odds are at least one of the subsets is a loser for s.dice, for now.  This is why you can only use pre declared subgroups in your analysis of treatment efficacy durin clinical trials. This is a great case study in how Post-hoc analysis can mislead.

But by all means, please bet a lot on less than 3000
dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 05:21:25 PM
 #294

I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

That is indeed strange.  The max bet is too low for "lessthan 3000".  I wonder if it's an attempt to limit their losses on such an "unlucky" number.  I hope it's just a simple mistake rather than dumb superstition.  I've PM'ed Erik several times telling him where he's going wrong with his max bet limits, but I don't get much of a response.

I expect the 3000 game is a loser just due to bad luck.  The multiplier is high, so the variance is high too.  It only takes a couple of big wins to put a substantial dent in the profits.  (Hmmm - but looking at the "biggest wins" section of SD.com shows no "lessthan 3000" bets in the list).

dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 05:34:44 PM
 #295

hmm, you were betting 'under 24000' though, so each time you doubled up, your profit also increased.  You'd only need to increase your bet about 35% each time...   So you made about 40 bitcoins profit?   martingale as it's defined would have resulted in a gain of just 0.122... and a bet of ~0.165 on your 2nd round..

ed:  well, wait, I'm wrong, since your initial bet was 0.122, you were trying to win 0.326, so the 0.326 + bets already lost is what you would bet for on each subsequent round

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well,

I realise I didn't need to double up, but I didn't want to be risking 62.5 coins just to win 0.112 coin...  I wanted the profits to increase along with the risk.  Like you said:

Quote
it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I ran your favourite through my Python script to see the odds and I like it too.  The output is kind of ugly, but what it tells me is that so long as you have 873 coins in your wallet, you will only lose if you lose 84 bets in a row (which happens 0.002% of the time - or 1 in 50,000 plays.

In the following:
  bet = how much to bet on each turn
  spent = total of bets so far
  win = payout if that bet wins
  lose = payout if that bet loses
  back = total of losing payouts from previous losing bets
  profit = overall profit if that bet wins

Edit: the following doesn't take transaction fees into account.  I was never betting small enough that transaction fees were significant, but you apparently are.  Every time you bet less than a bitcent the satoshi client will ask you to include a 0.0005 fee at least.

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =   0.00100000, spent =   0.00100000, win =   0.00750039, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000000, profit =   0.00650039 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =   0.00120000, spent =   0.00220000, win =   0.00910047, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000001, profit =   0.00690048 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =   0.00138000, spent =   0.00358000, win =   0.01054054, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000002, profit =   0.00696056 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =   0.00158700, spent =   0.00516700, win =   0.01219662, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000003, profit =   0.00702965 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =   0.00182505, spent =   0.00699205, win =   0.01410111, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000004, profit =   0.00710910 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =   0.00209881, spent =   0.00909086, win =   0.01629128, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000005, profit =   0.00720047 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =   0.00241363, spent =   0.01150449, win =   0.01880997, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000006, profit =   0.00730554 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =   0.00277567, spent =   0.01428016, win =   0.02170647, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000007, profit =   0.00742638 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =   0.00319202, spent =   0.01747218, win =   0.02503744, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000008, profit =   0.00756534 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =   0.00367083, spent =   0.02114301, win =   0.02886805, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000009, profit =   0.00772513 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet =   0.00422145, spent =   0.02536446, win =   0.03327326, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000010, profit =   0.00790890 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet =   0.00485467, spent =   0.03021913, win =   0.03833925, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000011, profit =   0.00812023 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet =   0.00558287, spent =   0.03580200, win =   0.04416514, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000012, profit =   0.00836326 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet =   0.00642030, spent =   0.04222230, win =   0.05086491, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000013, profit =   0.00864274 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet =   0.00738335, spent =   0.04960565, win =   0.05856965, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000014, profit =   0.00896414 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet =   0.00849085, spent =   0.05809649, win =   0.06743010, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000015, profit =   0.00933376 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet =   0.00976447, spent =   0.06786097, win =   0.07761961, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000016, profit =   0.00975880 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet =   0.01122915, spent =   0.07909011, win =   0.08933756, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000017, profit =   0.01024762 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet =   0.01291352, spent =   0.09200363, win =   0.10281319, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000018, profit =   0.01080974 ( 8.428% to lose all)
win on turn 20 : bet =   0.01485054, spent =   0.10685417, win =   0.11831017, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000019, profit =   0.01145619 ( 7.399% to lose all)
win on turn 21 : bet =   0.01707813, spent =   0.12393230, win =   0.13613170, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000020, profit =   0.01219960 ( 6.496% to lose all)
win on turn 22 : bet =   0.01963984, spent =   0.14357214, win =   0.15662645, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000021, profit =   0.01305452 ( 5.703% to lose all)
win on turn 23 : bet =   0.02258582, spent =   0.16615797, win =   0.18019542, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000022, profit =   0.01403767 ( 5.007% to lose all)
win on turn 24 : bet =   0.02597369, spent =   0.19213166, win =   0.20729974, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000023, profit =   0.01516831 ( 4.396% to lose all)
win on turn 25 : bet =   0.02986975, spent =   0.22200141, win =   0.23846970, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000024, profit =   0.01646853 ( 3.859% to lose all)
win on turn 26 : bet =   0.03435021, spent =   0.25635162, win =   0.27431515, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000025, profit =   0.01796378 ( 3.388% to lose all)
win on turn 27 : bet =   0.03950274, spent =   0.29585436, win =   0.31553743, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000026, profit =   0.01968333 ( 2.974% to lose all)
win on turn 28 : bet =   0.04542815, spent =   0.34128252, win =   0.36294304, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000027, profit =   0.02166079 ( 2.611% to lose all)
win on turn 29 : bet =   0.05224238, spent =   0.39352490, win =   0.41745950, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000028, profit =   0.02393488 ( 2.293% to lose all)
win on turn 30 : bet =   0.06007873, spent =   0.45360363, win =   0.48015342, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000029, profit =   0.02655008 ( 2.013% to lose all)
win on turn 31 : bet =   0.06909054, spent =   0.52269418, win =   0.55225144, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000030, profit =   0.02955756 ( 1.767% to lose all)
win on turn 32 : bet =   0.07945413, spent =   0.60214830, win =   0.63516415, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000031, profit =   0.03301616 ( 1.551% to lose all)
win on turn 33 : bet =   0.09137225, spent =   0.69352055, win =   0.73051378, lose =   0.00000001, back =   0.00000032, profit =   0.03699355 ( 1.362% to lose all)
win on turn 34 : bet =   0.10507808, spent =   0.79859863, win =   0.84016584, lose =   0.00002539, back =   0.00000033, profit =   0.04156754 ( 1.196% to lose all)
win on turn 35 : bet =   0.12083979, spent =   0.91943842, win =   0.96626572, lose =   0.00010419, back =   0.00002572, profit =   0.04685302 ( 1.050% to lose all)
win on turn 36 : bet =   0.13896576, spent =   1.05840419, win =   1.11128058, lose =   0.00019482, back =   0.00012991, profit =   0.05300630 ( 0.922% to lose all)
win on turn 37 : bet =   0.15981063, spent =   1.21821482, win =   1.27804767, lose =   0.00029905, back =   0.00032473, profit =   0.06015758 ( 0.809% to lose all)
win on turn 38 : bet =   0.18378222, spent =   1.40199704, win =   1.46982982, lose =   0.00041891, back =   0.00062378, profit =   0.06845656 ( 0.710% to lose all)
win on turn 39 : bet =   0.21134956, spent =   1.61334659, win =   1.69037929, lose =   0.00055674, back =   0.00104269, profit =   0.07807539 ( 0.624% to lose all)
win on turn 40 : bet =   0.24305199, spent =   1.85639858, win =   1.94401118, lose =   0.00071525, back =   0.00159943, profit =   0.08921203 ( 0.548% to lose all)
win on turn 41 : bet =   0.27950979, spent =   2.13590837, win =   2.23568786, lose =   0.00089754, back =   0.00231468, profit =   0.10209417 ( 0.481% to lose all)
win on turn 42 : bet =   0.32143626, spent =   2.45734463, win =   2.57111604, lose =   0.00110718, back =   0.00321222, profit =   0.11698363 ( 0.422% to lose all)
win on turn 43 : bet =   0.36965169, spent =   2.82699632, win =   2.95685845, lose =   0.00134825, back =   0.00431940, profit =   0.13418153 ( 0.370% to lose all)
win on turn 44 : bet =   0.42509945, spent =   3.25209577, win =   3.40046222, lose =   0.00162549, back =   0.00566765, profit =   0.15403410 ( 0.325% to lose all)
win on turn 45 : bet =   0.48886437, spent =   3.74096013, win =   3.91060655, lose =   0.00194432, back =   0.00729314, profit =   0.17693956 ( 0.286% to lose all)
win on turn 46 : bet =   0.56219402, spent =   4.30315415, win =   4.49727253, lose =   0.00231097, back =   0.00923746, profit =   0.20335584 ( 0.251% to lose all)
win on turn 47 : bet =   0.64652312, spent =   4.94967727, win =   5.17193841, lose =   0.00273261, back =   0.01154843, profit =   0.23380957 ( 0.220% to lose all)
win on turn 48 : bet =   0.74350159, spent =   5.69317887, win =   5.94780418, lose =   0.00321750, back =   0.01428104, profit =   0.26890635 ( 0.193% to lose all)
win on turn 49 : bet =   0.85502683, spent =   6.54820570, win =   6.84004980, lose =   0.00377513, back =   0.01749854, profit =   0.30934264 ( 0.170% to lose all)
win on turn 50 : bet =   0.98328085, spent =   7.53148655, win =   7.86613228, lose =   0.00441640, back =   0.02127367, profit =   0.35591940 ( 0.149% to lose all)
win on turn 51 : bet =   1.13077298, spent =   8.66225953, win =   9.04612712, lose =   0.00515386, back =   0.02569007, profit =   0.40955766 ( 0.131% to lose all)
win on turn 52 : bet =   1.30038893, spent =   9.96264846, win =  10.40312119, lose =   0.00600194, back =   0.03084393, profit =   0.47131666 ( 0.115% to lose all)
win on turn 53 : bet =   1.49544727, spent =  11.45809573, win =  11.96366437, lose =   0.00697723, back =   0.03684587, profit =   0.54241451 ( 0.101% to lose all)
win on turn 54 : bet =   1.71976436, spent =  13.17786009, win =  13.75828902, lose =   0.00809882, back =   0.04382310, profit =   0.62425203 ( 0.088% to lose all)
win on turn 55 : bet =   1.97772901, spent =  15.15558911, win =  15.82210737, lose =   0.00938864, back =   0.05192192, profit =   0.71844018 ( 0.078% to lose all)
win on turn 56 : bet =   2.27438837, spent =  17.42997747, win =  18.19549848, lose =   0.01087194, back =   0.06131056, profit =   0.82683157 ( 0.068% to lose all)
win on turn 57 : bet =   2.61554662, spent =  20.04552409, win =  20.92489825, lose =   0.01257773, back =   0.07218250, profit =   0.95155666 ( 0.060% to lose all)
win on turn 58 : bet =   3.00787861, spent =  23.05340271, win =  24.06370799, lose =   0.01453939, back =   0.08476023, profit =   1.09506551 ( 0.053% to lose all)
win on turn 59 : bet =   3.45906041, spent =  26.51246311, win =  27.67333919, lose =   0.01679530, back =   0.09929962, profit =   1.26017570 ( 0.046% to lose all)
win on turn 60 : bet =   3.97791947, spent =  30.49038258, win =  31.82441507, lose =   0.01938959, back =   0.11609492, profit =   1.45012741 ( 0.041% to lose all)
win on turn 61 : bet =   4.57460739, spent =  35.06498997, win =  36.59815234, lose =   0.02237303, back =   0.13548451, profit =   1.66864688 ( 0.036% to lose all)
win on turn 62 : bet =   5.26079849, spent =  40.32578846, win =  42.08795019, lose =   0.02580399, back =   0.15785754, profit =   1.92001927 ( 0.031% to lose all)
win on turn 63 : bet =   6.04991827, spent =  46.37570673, win =  48.40121772, lose =   0.02974959, back =   0.18366153, profit =   2.20917252 ( 0.027% to lose all)
win on turn 64 : bet =   6.95740601, spent =  53.33311274, win =  55.66147537, lose =   0.03428703, back =   0.21341112, profit =   2.54177375 ( 0.024% to lose all)
win on turn 65 : bet =   8.00101691, spent =  61.33412965, win =  64.01077168, lose =   0.03950508, back =   0.24769815, profit =   2.92434018 ( 0.021% to lose all)
win on turn 66 : bet =   9.20116945, spent =  70.53529910, win =  73.61246243, lose =   0.04550584, back =   0.28720323, profit =   3.36436656 ( 0.019% to lose all)
win on turn 67 : bet =  10.58134486, spent =  81.11664396, win =  84.65440680, lose =   0.05240672, back =   0.33270907, profit =   3.87047191 ( 0.016% to lose all)
win on turn 68 : bet =  12.16854659, spent =  93.28519056, win =  97.35264282, lose =   0.06034273, back =   0.38511579, profit =   4.45256805 ( 0.014% to lose all)
win on turn 69 : bet =  13.99382858, spent = 107.27901914, win = 111.95561424, lose =   0.06946914, back =   0.44545852, profit =   5.12205362 ( 0.013% to lose all)
win on turn 70 : bet =  16.09290287, spent = 123.37192201, win = 128.74903138, lose =   0.07996451, back =   0.51492766, profit =   5.89203703 ( 0.011% to lose all)
win on turn 71 : bet =  18.50683830, spent = 141.87876031, win = 148.06146109, lose =   0.09203419, back =   0.59489217, profit =   6.77759295 ( 0.010% to lose all)
win on turn 72 : bet =  21.28286405, spent = 163.16162436, win = 170.27075525, lose =   0.10591432, back =   0.68692636, profit =   7.79605725 ( 0.008% to lose all)
win on turn 73 : bet =  24.47529365, spent = 187.63691801, win = 195.81144354, lose =   0.12187646, back =   0.79284068, profit =   8.96736621 ( 0.007% to lose all)
win on turn 74 : bet =  28.14658770, spent = 215.78350571, win = 225.18323507, lose =   0.14023293, back =   0.91471714, profit =  10.31444650 ( 0.007% to lose all)
win on turn 75 : bet =  32.36857586, spent = 248.15208157, win = 258.96079533, lose =   0.16134287, back =   1.05495007, profit =  11.86366383 ( 0.006% to lose all)
win on turn 76 : bet =  37.22386224, spent = 285.37594380, win = 297.80498963, lose =   0.18561931, back =   1.21629294, profit =  13.64533877 ( 0.005% to lose all)
win on turn 77 : bet =  42.80744157, spent = 328.18338538, win = 342.47581308, lose =   0.21353720, back =   1.40191225, profit =  15.69433995 ( 0.004% to lose all)
win on turn 78 : bet =  49.22855781, spent = 377.41194318, win = 393.84726004, lose =   0.24564278, back =   1.61544945, profit =  18.05076631 ( 0.004% to lose all)
win on turn 79 : bet =  56.61284148, spent = 434.02478466, win = 452.92442405, lose =   0.28256420, back =   1.86109223, profit =  20.76073162 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 80 : bet =  65.10476770, spent = 499.12955236, win = 520.86316265, lose =   0.32502383, back =   2.14365643, profit =  23.87726672 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 81 : bet =  74.87048285, spent = 574.00003521, win = 598.99271205, lose =   0.37385241, back =   2.46868026, profit =  27.46135710 ( 0.003% to lose all)
win on turn 82 : bet =  86.10105528, spent = 660.10109049, win = 688.84169386, lose =   0.43000527, back =   2.84253267, profit =  31.58313604 ( 0.002% to lose all)
win on turn 83 : bet =  99.01621357, spent = 759.11730407, win = 792.16802294, lose =   0.49458106, back =   3.27253794, profit =  36.32325681 ( 0.002% to lose all)
win on turn 84 : bet = 113.86864561, spent = 872.98594968, win = 910.99330138, lose =   0.56884322, back =   3.76711900, profit =  41.77447070 ( 0.002% to lose all)

Here's the output for the game I was playing.  I won on turn 10, so my profit should have been 42.28775196.  But I paid 5 transaction fees of 0.0005 each, so it was a little less, at 42.28525196.

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =   0.12200000, spent =   0.12200000, win =   0.32525594, lose =   0.00011000, back =   0.00000000, profit =   0.20325594 (63.379% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =   0.24400000, spent =   0.36600000, win =   0.65101188, lose =   0.00072000, back =   0.00011000, profit =   0.28512188 (40.169% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =   0.48800000, spent =   0.85400000, win =   1.30252376, lose =   0.00194000, back =   0.00083000, profit =   0.44935376 (25.459% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =   0.97600000, spent =   1.83000000, win =   2.60554753, lose =   0.00438000, back =   0.00277000, profit =   0.77831753 (16.135% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =   1.95200000, spent =   3.78200000, win =   5.21159506, lose =   0.00926000, back =   0.00715000, profit =   1.43674506 (10.226% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =   3.90400000, spent =   7.68600000, win =  10.42369012, lose =   0.01902000, back =   0.01641000, profit =   2.75410012 ( 6.481% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =   7.80800000, spent =  15.49400000, win =  20.84788024, lose =   0.03854000, back =   0.03543000, profit =   5.38931024 ( 4.108% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =  15.61600000, spent =  31.11000000, win =  41.69626049, lose =   0.07758000, back =   0.07397000, profit =  10.66023049 ( 2.604% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =  31.23200000, spent =  62.34200000, win =  83.39302098, lose =   0.15566000, back =   0.15155000, profit =  21.20257098 ( 1.650% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =  62.46400000, spent = 124.80600000, win = 166.78654196, lose =   0.31182000, back =   0.30721000, profit =  42.28775196 ( 1.046% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet = 124.92800000, spent = 249.73400000, win = 333.57358392, lose =   0.62414000, back =   0.61903000, profit =  84.45861392 ( 0.663% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet = 249.85600000, spent = 499.59000000, win = 667.14766785, lose =   1.24878000, back =   1.24317000, profit = 168.80083785 ( 0.420% to lose all)

dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 19, 2012, 05:40:21 PM
 #296

Best strat is don't play. Second best is max bet one time.

Agreed.  The more you play, the closer you get to losing 1.9% of everything you bet.  So bet as few times as possible.  That's the "best" strategy if you want to minimise losses.  But I think people also want to maximise intangibles like "fun", "buzz", "excitement" and "hope".

Quote
Given the number of bet odds subsets, and the total number of
Bets, odds are at least one of the subsets is a loser for s.dice, for now.  This is why you can only use pre declared subgroups in your analysis of treatment efficacy durin clinical trials. This is a great case study in how Post-hoc analysis can mislead.

I'm having a lot of trouble parsing that.  The first line seems to be truncated.  Are you saying that you should decide which bets to focus on before looking at the data; that it makes no sense to focus on "<3000" just because it happened to be the worst performing bet?

It's like people compiling stats on which numbers come up most often in the lottery, and betting those numbers.  Some numbers are bound to come up more often than others in the short term, just because it's random, but the fact that they do is meaningless in terms of predictive power.

dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 20, 2012, 12:46:43 AM
 #297

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-19 05:25pm (up to block 199596)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21131 |      0 (0.00000) |  20771 |     360 |     183.76 |       0.01 |    31.56 |    183.74 |   0.011
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1759 |      0 (0.00000) |   1686 |      73 |      24.74 |       0.00 |     6.88 |     24.74 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2351 |      0 (0.00000) |   2315 |      36 |      29.17 |       0.02 |     3.72 |     29.15 |   0.091
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2489 |      1 (0.00041) |   2444 |      44 |      51.59 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     43.52 |  15.631
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2518 |      1 (0.00040) |   2481 |      36 |      90.73 |       4.24 |     7.40 |     86.48 |   4.682
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5471 |      3 (0.00055) |   5456 |      12 |     379.65 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     76.32 |  79.895
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7835 |      8 (0.00102) |   7805 |      22 |     645.69 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    521.30 |  19.265
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     9988 |     19 (0.00191) |   9914 |      55 |    1597.76 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.12 |  79.777
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9875 |     43 (0.00436) |   9818 |      14 |    1285.69 |    1302.33 |    13.11 |    -16.64 | 101.294
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15096 |    116 (0.00769) |  14971 |       9 |    2642.30 |    2009.82 |     9.35 |    632.48 |  76.063
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    28863 |    432 (0.01497) |  28420 |      11 |    8294.91 |    7685.78 |     1.80 |    609.12 |  92.657
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15000 |    341 (0.02274) |  14653 |       6 |    4698.32 |    4854.95 |    15.00 |   -156.63 | 103.334
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22511 |    696 (0.03092) |  21811 |       4 |    5479.17 |    4643.51 |     9.24 |    835.66 |  84.748
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15154 |    698 (0.04608) |  14448 |       8 |    6779.32 |    8057.40 |    24.99 |  -1278.08 | 118.853
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15727 |    969 (0.06163) |  14754 |       4 |    4638.01 |    4114.85 |    31.20 |    523.16 |  88.720
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20868 |   1958 (0.09391) |  18892 |      18 |    9992.52 |    9889.43 |     7.01 |    103.08 |  98.968
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    81908 |  10085 (0.12316) |  71801 |      22 |   10084.27 |    8661.08 |     0.00 |   1423.18 |  85.887
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20841 |   3908 (0.18763) |  16920 |      13 |    8165.68 |    8366.85 |    14.50 |   -201.16 | 102.464
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    78889 |  19205 (0.24351) |  59662 |      22 |   46826.73 |   45709.89 |   347.79 |   1116.84 |  97.615
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    59572 |  21873 (0.36745) |  37654 |      45 |   29206.23 |   28482.21 |   212.64 |    724.02 |  97.521
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   511103 | 249212 (0.48800) | 261466 |     425 |  309351.09 |  308110.39 |  2173.40 |   1240.70 |  99.599
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   190078 |  94690 (0.49860) |  95222 |     166 |  184618.68 |  183185.36 |  1295.21 |   1433.32 |  99.224
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   148363 | 109128 (0.73592) |  39160 |      75 |  141367.38 |  139280.82 |   467.98 |   2086.55 |  98.524
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11619 |   9229 (0.79478) |   2383 |       7 |   20180.56 |   20075.05 |   400.00 |    105.50 |  99.477
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11162 |   9554 (0.85748) |   1588 |      20 |   10956.04 |   10736.09 |   400.00 |    219.94 |  97.992
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5328 |   4871 (0.91543) |    450 |       7 |    9262.81 |    9216.24 |     0.00 |     46.57 |  99.497
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7532 |   7247 (0.97999) |    148 |     137 |   16269.22 |   15991.98 |   239.21 |    277.24 |  98.296
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1278622 | 521906           | 755274 |    1442 |  319619.28 |  310879.05 |   145.59 |   8740.22 |  97.265
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44409 |  22381           |  21819 |     209 |  513482.88 |  511209.78 |  5673.35 |   2273.09 |  99.557
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1323031 | 544287           | 777093 |    1651 |  833102.16 |  822088.83 |  5818.95 |  11013.32 |  98.678
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11013.32602137 BTC (1.322%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         666.51117500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10346.81484637 BTC (1.242%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4360136  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2452190  (56.2%)
Blockchain MB:  1806.2  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1001.6  (55.5%)


dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
September 20, 2012, 07:00:32 AM
 #298

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley


boonies4u
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 826



View Profile
September 20, 2012, 11:10:00 AM
 #299

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley



The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue
Carlos L.
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 952


View Profile
September 20, 2012, 12:00:19 PM
 #300

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley

http://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.png

The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue

The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 ... 81 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!