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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177379 times)
organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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September 20, 2012, 12:07:35 PM
 #301

The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.

That question has already been answered: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94481.0

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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September 21, 2012, 04:05:42 PM
 #302

I missed updating the stats yesterday.  Does anyone care?  I've mostly been updating daily but will probably reduce the frequency of my updates unless anyone really wants daily posts.

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-21 09:02am (up to block 199857)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21333 |      0 (0.00000) |  20973 |     360 |     185.59 |       0.01 |    31.56 |    185.57 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1773 |      0 (0.00000) |   1700 |      73 |      24.85 |       0.00 |     6.88 |     24.84 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2364 |      0 (0.00000) |   2328 |      36 |      29.28 |       0.02 |     3.72 |     29.25 |   0.091
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2504 |      1 (0.00041) |   2459 |      44 |      51.73 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     43.66 |  15.588
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2529 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      36 |      90.83 |       4.24 |     7.40 |     86.59 |   4.677
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5495 |      3 (0.00055) |   5480 |      12 |     380.39 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.06 |  79.740
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7870 |      8 (0.00102) |   7840 |      22 |     646.04 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    521.65 |  19.254
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10005 |     19 (0.00191) |   9931 |      55 |    1598.04 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.39 |  79.763
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9896 |     43 (0.00435) |   9839 |      14 |    1285.97 |    1302.33 |    13.11 |    -16.36 | 101.272
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15162 |    116 (0.00766) |  15037 |       9 |    2646.01 |    2009.82 |     9.35 |    636.19 |  75.957
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    28997 |    434 (0.01497) |  28551 |      12 |    8296.20 |    7686.62 |     1.80 |    609.58 |  92.652
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15029 |    343 (0.02283) |  14680 |       6 |    4698.85 |    4858.79 |    15.00 |   -159.94 | 103.404
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22553 |    697 (0.03091) |  21852 |       4 |    5480.46 |    4645.11 |     9.24 |    835.35 |  84.758
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15176 |    699 (0.04608) |  14469 |       8 |    6779.52 |    8058.47 |    24.99 |  -1278.95 | 118.865
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15780 |    977 (0.06193) |  14799 |       4 |    4639.17 |    4117.14 |    31.20 |    522.02 |  88.748
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20938 |   1963 (0.09383) |  18957 |      18 |    9995.21 |    9892.00 |     7.01 |    103.21 |  98.967
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    82958 |  10201 (0.12300) |  72735 |      22 |   10138.46 |    8699.54 |     0.00 |   1438.91 |  85.807
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20925 |   3924 (0.18764) |  16988 |      13 |    8186.12 |    8371.07 |    14.50 |   -184.95 | 102.259
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    79884 |  19438 (0.24340) |  60423 |      23 |   47749.73 |   46391.37 |   347.79 |   1358.35 |  97.155
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    59983 |  22015 (0.36730) |  37923 |      45 |   29279.50 |   28549.75 |   212.64 |    729.75 |  97.508
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   516826 | 251983 (0.48796) | 264416 |     427 |  311961.81 |  310733.10 |  2173.40 |   1228.70 |  99.606
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   192115 |  95718 (0.49867) |  96230 |     167 |  185752.15 |  184609.12 |  1295.21 |   1143.02 |  99.385
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   149285 | 109818 (0.73600) |  39392 |      75 |  143927.70 |  141561.27 |   467.98 |   2366.42 |  98.356
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11816 |   9387 (0.79490) |   2422 |       7 |   20251.96 |   20147.49 |   400.00 |    104.46 |  99.484
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11256 |   9628 (0.85696) |   1607 |      21 |   11038.72 |   10818.42 |   400.00 |    220.30 |  98.004
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5474 |   5009 (0.91622) |    458 |       7 |    9670.12 |    9590.18 |     0.00 |     79.94 |  99.173
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7562 |   7274 (0.97993) |    149 |     139 |   16276.39 |   15998.77 |   239.21 |    277.62 |  98.294
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1290838 | 527194           | 762194 |    1450 |  322858.07 |  314067.43 |   145.59 |   8790.63 |  97.277
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44650 |  22505           |  21936 |     209 |  518202.84 |  515687.74 |  5673.35 |   2515.10 |  99.515
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1335488 | 549699           | 784130 |    1659 |  841060.92 |  829755.18 |  5818.95 |  11305.74 |  98.656
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11305.74431106 BTC (1.344%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         672.77172500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10632.97258606 BTC (1.264%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4411969  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2475751  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1827.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1011.4  (55.3%)


SNS
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September 21, 2012, 04:28:29 PM
 #303

Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!

Carlos L.
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September 21, 2012, 05:30:19 PM
 #304

Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
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September 21, 2012, 06:38:56 PM
 #305

I check several times daily.  Grin

Best Bitcoin supported browser game:
Minethings: Dig, Trade, and Fight your way to influence!
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September 21, 2012, 07:32:53 PM
 #306

I also check multiple times a day.  It's my favorite thread on bitcointalk.
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September 21, 2012, 08:54:50 PM
 #307

I visit this thread regularly.
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September 21, 2012, 09:27:28 PM
 #308

Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.
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September 22, 2012, 12:21:16 AM
 #309

Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.


I don't.  But I'll get one.  Good idea.

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September 22, 2012, 08:23:24 PM
 #310

Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
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September 23, 2012, 03:26:38 AM
 #311

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-22 08:24pm (up to block 200093)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21475 |      0 (0.00000) |  21114 |     361 |     187.30 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    187.28 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1779 |      0 (0.00000) |   1705 |      74 |      24.87 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     24.87 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2373 |      0 (0.00000) |   2336 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2509 |      1 (0.00041) |   2464 |      44 |      52.18 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.11 |  15.457
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2536 |      1 (0.00040) |   2499 |      36 |      91.60 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     87.35 |   4.640
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7884 |      8 (0.00102) |   7854 |      22 |     646.95 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.55 |  19.228
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10025 |     19 (0.00191) |   9950 |      56 |    1598.47 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.83 |  79.741
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9907 |     43 (0.00435) |   9850 |      14 |    1286.44 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -15.89 | 101.235
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15198 |    116 (0.00764) |  15073 |       9 |    2650.81 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    640.97 |  75.820
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    29217 |    434 (0.01486) |  28771 |      12 |    8309.92 |    7686.62 |     1.80 |    623.30 |  92.499
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15045 |    343 (0.02281) |  14696 |       6 |    4701.15 |    4858.80 |    15.00 |   -157.64 | 103.353
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22610 |    698 (0.03088) |  21908 |       4 |    5481.89 |    4645.75 |     9.24 |    836.14 |  84.747
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15201 |    701 (0.04614) |  14492 |       8 |    6793.54 |    8063.01 |    24.99 |  -1269.46 | 118.686
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15817 |    979 (0.06191) |  14834 |       4 |    4641.38 |    4118.99 |    31.20 |    522.38 |  88.745
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    20992 |   1969 (0.09388) |  19005 |      18 |   10022.88 |    9962.58 |     7.01 |     60.29 |  99.398
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    83399 |  10258 (0.12303) |  73118 |      23 |   10247.56 |    8824.69 |     0.00 |   1422.87 |  86.115
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    20995 |   3934 (0.18749) |  17048 |      13 |    8211.54 |    8409.83 |    14.50 |   -198.28 | 102.415
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    80627 |  19635 (0.24360) |  60969 |      23 |   48024.73 |   46831.00 |   347.79 |   1193.72 |  97.514
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60220 |  22099 (0.36725) |  38076 |      45 |   29692.01 |   28915.74 |   212.64 |    776.27 |  97.386
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   521976 | 254445 (0.48787) | 267102 |     429 |  315516.70 |  314027.34 |  2173.41 |   1489.36 |  99.528
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   192911 |  96141 (0.49880) |  96602 |     168 |  186326.39 |  185288.24 |  1295.21 |   1038.14 |  99.443
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150014 | 110349 (0.73596) |  39590 |      75 |  147575.30 |  145612.95 |   467.98 |   1962.35 |  98.670
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    11961 |   9504 (0.79505) |   2450 |       7 |   20362.73 |   20256.71 |   400.00 |    106.02 |  99.479
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11323 |   9684 (0.85684) |   1618 |      21 |   11150.91 |   10886.44 |   400.00 |    264.47 |  97.628
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5541 |   5069 (0.91597) |    465 |       7 |    9823.74 |    9751.33 |     0.00 |     72.40 |  99.263
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7594 |   7305 (0.97988) |    150 |     139 |   16307.07 |   16029.29 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1299641 | 531048           | 767135 |    1458 |  325637.62 |  316755.91 |   147.09 |   8881.70 |  97.273
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    44991 |  22690           |  22092 |     209 |  524501.34 |  522440.37 |  5673.35 |   2060.97 |  99.607
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1344632 | 553738           | 789227 |    1667 |  850138.96 |  839196.28 |  5820.45 |  10942.67 |  98.713
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10942.67748855 BTC (1.287%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         677.39140000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10265.28608855 BTC (1.207%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4446310  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2492604  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1843.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1018.5  (55.2%)


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September 23, 2012, 12:31:13 PM
 #312

Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
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September 24, 2012, 04:26:11 AM
 #313

Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?

I've not.  I looked at the progressive games when they were first introduced, and saw that the way they worked meant that sometimes they were incredibly worth playing.  After making a nice profit playing them at the right time the rules were changed.  Now they're almost never worth playing.  The expected return is horrible.  As a result almost nobody plays them, so I decided just to ignore them.

Look at the current progressive pot.  I have a 0.02596% chance of turning 0.25 BTC into 626.0639 BTC.  That's a 1 in 3852 chance of multiplying my stake by 2504.  Or in other words a 65% expected return.

>>> 100 * 626.0639 / 0.25 / (100 / 0.02596)
65.010475376

I expect they're being honest though.  At those odds why would they need to cheat?

Edit: this game did puzzle me for a while though.  They claim to only take a 2% cut from the progressive games - each time the pot is won, they take their small cut, give 65% to the player, and leave the rest in the pot for the next winner.  So if the players are getting a 65% return, and the house is only taking 2%, where does the rest go?

To simplify the game, consider these rules:

* you're the only person playing
* each turn costs 1 BTC
* when you win, you win the whole pot
* when you lose, your whole bet gets added to the pot
* each time you bet, your odds of winning are 1 in (pot * 10)

So

* each bet has an expected return of 10%, or 0.1 BTC (you're betting 1 BTC to win 'pot' BTC, with a 1-in-(pot*10) chance of winning)
* but eventually you win, and get all your money back - doesn't this imply your expected return of 100% in the long term?

These two contradict each other - the return can't be 10% each bet, and 100% in the long term.

I think the way I eventually resolved the contradiction is that "eventually you win" isn't true.  You might give up before you win.  In that case the house gets to keep the whole pot.  And the same applies in the SD progressive game, I think.  They only take 2% if the pot is won, but it's quite likely that the pot won't ever be won, in which case they keep everything.

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September 24, 2012, 04:49:57 AM
 #314

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-23 09:47pm (up to block 200255)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21558 |      0 (0.00000) |  21197 |     361 |     190.19 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    190.17 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1786 |      0 (0.00000) |   1712 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2374 |      0 (0.00000) |   2337 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2511 |      1 (0.00041) |   2466 |      44 |      52.19 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.12 |  15.453
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2523 |      36 |      94.69 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.43 |   4.497
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7888 |      8 (0.00102) |   7858 |      22 |     646.97 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.58 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10032 |     19 (0.00190) |   9957 |      56 |    1598.53 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.88 |  79.739
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9910 |     43 (0.00435) |   9853 |      14 |    1288.06 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.109
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15209 |    116 (0.00763) |  15084 |       9 |    2650.95 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.11 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30041 |    449 (0.01495) |  29580 |      12 |    8321.87 |    7700.04 |     1.80 |    621.83 |  92.528
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15049 |    344 (0.02287) |  14699 |       6 |    4701.20 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.64 | 103.353
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22624 |    698 (0.03086) |  21922 |       4 |    5482.03 |    4645.75 |     9.24 |    836.28 |  84.745
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15247 |    702 (0.04607) |  14537 |       8 |    6794.75 |    8065.14 |    24.99 |  -1270.38 | 118.697
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15846 |    980 (0.06186) |  14862 |       4 |    4644.35 |    4120.91 |    31.20 |    523.43 |  88.730
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21018 |   1970 (0.09381) |  19030 |      18 |   10026.55 |    9963.02 |     7.01 |     63.53 |  99.366
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84424 |  10392 (0.12313) |  74009 |      23 |   10338.29 |    8936.32 |     0.00 |   1401.96 |  86.439
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21028 |   3944 (0.18768) |  17071 |      13 |    8216.92 |    8413.58 |    14.50 |   -196.65 | 102.393
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    82619 |  20130 (0.24372) |  62466 |      23 |   49438.90 |   48380.01 |   347.79 |   1058.88 |  97.858
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60385 |  22164 (0.36732) |  38176 |      45 |   29746.72 |   28983.98 |   212.64 |    762.74 |  97.436
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   526137 | 256545 (0.48800) | 269163 |     429 |  316854.21 |  315488.41 |  2173.41 |   1365.79 |  99.569
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   194045 |  96699 (0.49880) |  97164 |     182 |  188426.43 |  186761.00 |  1295.22 |   1665.42 |  99.116
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150649 | 110802 (0.73587) |  39770 |      77 |  152861.37 |  150462.54 |   467.98 |   2398.83 |  98.431
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12153 |   9663 (0.79557) |   2483 |       7 |   20885.33 |   20865.38 |   400.00 |     19.94 |  99.904
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11444 |   9789 (0.85696) |   1634 |      21 |   11211.26 |   10950.07 |   400.00 |    261.19 |  97.670
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5573 |   5097 (0.91574) |    469 |       7 |    9834.99 |    9762.19 |     0.00 |     72.79 |  99.260
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7599 |   7310 (0.97989) |    150 |     139 |   16307.59 |   16029.82 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1309883 | 534990           | 773419 |    1474 |  328052.51 |  319164.21 |   147.10 |   8888.29 |  97.291
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45329 |  22879           |  22241 |     209 |  532997.99 |  530249.80 |  5673.35 |   2748.18 |  99.484
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1355212 | 557869           | 795660 |    1683 |  861050.50 |  849414.01 |  5820.46 |  11636.48 |  98.649
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11636.48912696 BTC (1.351%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         682.72930000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10953.75982696 BTC (1.272%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4476982  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2510589  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1856.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1026.1  (55.3%)


dooglus
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September 24, 2012, 04:59:42 AM
 #315

I looked into the recent profits for SD.  It doesn't look like a martingale series - it's mostly someone (or maybe 2 people) making a bunch of large <48000 bets and having a run of bad luck:

Code:

Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 41c74bcd163391409301acf1e0ccf701f24877be2a12d30d2eb69daa985b5396 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   250.00000000  WIN     84.39083333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 499ebca078d841cf4f1b751d298c0a4b9a93697481cb12a71d0e32b1fccae59d 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   113.00000000  WIN     38.14438266
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 db1c668dd580318070a9490fabf4485b34af55ce71f0316e04fad2d9046fbd87 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET    80.00000000  WIN     27.00472666
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 9343ed1359217dffc93a06c1f8ed6b973edb70622f8f5500b9af381e29639f66 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   100.00000000  WIN     33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 dafd962e26e16650da9aa60f9edb46d5529e06912e39b9d19a95189a848b132d 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   142.00000000  WIN     47.93377733
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 58fad4d8d35d348bbbc0bcd172cf51892936b9977a66f81aa43c60960fb66b86 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   190.00000000  WIN     64.13691333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 3e92f6bb0b437e880baf6c9c797506cf6a919619954c4841256b115b6227ac74 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 8e7271e75e0a815f28c410a8792490fc09f63c29d481593fcc7e2b9a99d39c1b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   100.00000000  WIN     33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 d00f27c4aa977163487eba2a4fd6f943bed22b9da1055f97e12c78272209a20b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 31374a58cc0514fb8dc4cbaa28ccfd3b23d3594e2bd9963c4a1732f0aed5e8ee 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   241.00000000 LOSE  -239.79550000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 c08b14f2a47dfe1f625667c2618cb4cba6205960a0146cc1cadb3190bd847a35 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 131ac681d069314099722a3277beef79196d6d685e5c2628dc4b14d9634dd6f8 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   151.00000000 LOSE  -150.24550000
Mon Sep 24 02:52:05 2012 <48000 b200249 73450a6a86c84bce8a352c6d01b606abd832e44800e1ecd283cf48230c4fafa1 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET    86.53000000  WIN     29.20902829
Mon Sep 24 03:11:30 2012 <48000 b200250 b67db3417755f8d574b81065e6c77ea2283921b8250b3964e2b2e2bffca087f3 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   115.70000000 LOSE  -115.12200000

dooglus
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September 24, 2012, 06:49:50 PM
 #316

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-24 11:48am (up to block 200351)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21575 |      0 (0.00000) |  21213 |     362 |     190.53 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    190.51 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1787 |      0 (0.00000) |   1713 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2375 |      0 (0.00000) |   2338 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2512 |      1 (0.00041) |   2467 |      44 |      52.20 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.13 |  15.451
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2523 |      36 |      94.69 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.43 |   4.497
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7888 |      8 (0.00102) |   7858 |      22 |     646.97 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.58 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10039 |     19 (0.00190) |   9964 |      56 |    1598.64 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.99 |  79.733
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9910 |     43 (0.00435) |   9853 |      14 |    1288.06 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.109
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15210 |    116 (0.00763) |  15085 |       9 |    2650.95 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.11 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30178 |    449 (0.01488) |  29717 |      12 |    8325.83 |    7700.04 |     1.80 |    625.79 |  92.484
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15052 |    344 (0.02286) |  14702 |       6 |    4701.37 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.46 | 103.349
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22659 |    699 (0.03085) |  21956 |       4 |    5483.76 |    4646.71 |     9.24 |    837.04 |  84.736
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15273 |    702 (0.04599) |  14563 |       8 |    6795.37 |    8065.14 |    24.99 |  -1269.77 | 118.686
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15859 |    981 (0.06187) |  14874 |       4 |    4644.66 |    4121.07 |    31.20 |    523.59 |  88.727
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21060 |   1972 (0.09372) |  19070 |      18 |   10029.58 |    9967.08 |     7.01 |     62.50 |  99.377
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84602 |  10411 (0.12309) |  74168 |      23 |   10348.87 |    8942.19 |     0.00 |   1406.67 |  86.407
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21035 |   3947 (0.18776) |  17075 |      13 |    8218.93 |    8418.93 |    14.50 |   -200.00 | 102.433
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    83064 |  20233 (0.24365) |  62808 |      23 |   49522.04 |   48450.32 |   347.79 |   1071.71 |  97.836
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60746 |  22292 (0.36724) |  38409 |      45 |   29892.85 |   29134.37 |   212.64 |    758.48 |  97.463
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   528699 | 257745 (0.48791) | 270517 |     437 |  317403.06 |  316040.32 |  2173.41 |   1362.74 |  99.571
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   194816 |  97086 (0.49882) |  97547 |     183 |  190121.85 |  187888.95 |  1295.22 |   2232.89 |  98.826
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150818 | 110927 (0.73588) |  39814 |      77 |  153498.86 |  151267.40 |   467.98 |   2231.45 |  98.546
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12247 |   9739 (0.79567) |   2501 |       7 |   20989.49 |   20951.13 |   400.00 |     38.35 |  99.817
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11526 |   9859 (0.85693) |   1646 |      21 |   12150.76 |   12021.12 |   400.00 |    129.63 |  98.933
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5579 |   5102 (0.91565) |    470 |       7 |    9847.91 |    9776.02 |     0.00 |     71.89 |  99.270
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7603 |   7314 (0.97990) |    150 |     139 |   16308.70 |   16030.93 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1314776 | 537070           | 776222 |    1484 |  329034.51 |  320074.85 |   147.11 |   8959.66 |  97.277
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45399 |  22923           |  22267 |     209 |  536207.58 |  533232.72 |  5673.35 |   2974.86 |  99.445
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1360175 | 559993           | 798489 |    1693 |  865242.10 |  853307.57 |  5820.46 |  11934.52 |  98.621
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11934.52699252 BTC (1.379%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         685.22687500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11249.30011752 BTC (1.300%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4494521  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2520228  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1864.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1030.1  (55.3%)


Jermainé
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September 24, 2012, 07:04:56 PM
 #317

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley

http://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.png

The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue

The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.

haha ikr? im currently down 30BTC fml Cry
dooglus
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September 25, 2012, 05:29:39 PM
 #318

Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-25 10:27am (up to block 200493)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21614 |      0 (0.00000) |  21251 |     363 |     191.04 |       0.01 |    32.16 |    191.02 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1788 |      0 (0.00000) |   1714 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2378 |      0 (0.00000) |   2341 |      37 |      29.91 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.88 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2514 |      1 (0.00040) |   2469 |      44 |      52.22 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.15 |  15.445
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2564 |      1 (0.00040) |   2527 |      36 |      95.14 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.88 |   4.477
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5504 |      3 (0.00055) |   5489 |      12 |     381.22 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.89 |  79.567
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7891 |      8 (0.00102) |   7861 |      22 |     646.98 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.59 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10047 |     19 (0.00190) |   9972 |      56 |    1598.66 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.01 |  79.732
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9911 |     43 (0.00434) |   9854 |      14 |    1288.07 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.108
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15215 |    116 (0.00763) |  15090 |       9 |    2650.96 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.12 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30194 |    450 (0.01491) |  29732 |      12 |    8325.94 |    7700.68 |     1.80 |    625.25 |  92.490
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15056 |    344 (0.02286) |  14706 |       6 |    4701.45 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.38 | 103.348
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22717 |    700 (0.03082) |  22013 |       4 |    5486.15 |    4647.35 |     9.24 |    838.79 |  84.711
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15293 |    704 (0.04606) |  14581 |       8 |    6795.96 |    8066.48 |    24.99 |  -1270.52 | 118.695
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15871 |    984 (0.06202) |  14883 |       4 |    4645.85 |    4126.35 |    31.20 |    519.49 |  88.818
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21103 |   1973 (0.09357) |  19112 |      18 |   10109.67 |   10074.06 |     7.01 |     35.61 |  99.648
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84641 |  10416 (0.12309) |  74202 |      23 |   10352.67 |    8943.34 |     0.00 |   1409.32 |  86.387
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21075 |   3954 (0.18773) |  17108 |      13 |    8271.75 |    8517.32 |    14.50 |   -245.56 | 102.969
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    83367 |  20298 (0.24354) |  63046 |      23 |   49803.79 |   48623.81 |   347.79 |   1179.98 |  97.631
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60823 |  22328 (0.36737) |  38450 |      45 |   29914.13 |   29164.21 |   212.64 |    749.92 |  97.493
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   530782 | 258784 (0.48795) | 271561 |     437 |  317903.19 |  316505.08 |  2173.41 |   1398.11 |  99.560
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195105 |  97239 (0.49886) |  97683 |     183 |  190690.25 |  188454.71 |  1295.22 |   2235.53 |  98.828
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150979 | 111044 (0.73587) |  39858 |      77 |  153546.62 |  151317.42 |   467.98 |   2229.19 |  98.548
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12400 |   9862 (0.79577) |   2531 |       7 |   21512.33 |   21274.84 |   400.00 |    237.49 |  98.896
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11567 |   9894 (0.85692) |   1652 |      21 |   12287.74 |   12040.25 |   400.00 |    247.48 |  97.986
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5606 |   5126 (0.91552) |    473 |       7 |    9865.97 |    9791.56 |     0.00 |     74.40 |  99.246
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7607 |   7318 (0.97991) |    150 |     139 |   16309.10 |   16031.33 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1318135 | 538658           | 777992 |    1485 |  329637.49 |  320693.57 |   147.21 |   8943.91 |  97.287
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45477 |  22951           |  22317 |     209 |  537844.67 |  534471.07 |  5673.35 |   3373.60 |  99.373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1363612 | 561609           | 800309 |    1694 |  867482.17 |  855164.65 |  5820.56 |  12317.52 |  98.580
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12317.52011634 BTC (1.420%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         686.95472500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11630.56539134 BTC (1.341%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4516574  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2527097  (56.0%)
Blockchain MB:  1873.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1032.9  (55.1%)


zvs
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September 25, 2012, 06:30:03 PM
 #319

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley


Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0.  If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script....   As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead....  I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially.  I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.

Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal.   That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns.   =p

Dacentec, best deals for US dedicated servers. They regularly restock $20-$25 Opterons with 8-16GB RAM & 2x1-2TB HDD's (ofc, usually lots of other good stuff to choose from).  I did a Serverbear benchmark of one of my $20/mo Opteron (June last year), it's here.  Have had about a half dozen different servers with Dacentec, & none have failed to sustain at least 40MB/s (burst higher). My favorite is a 12-month rent-to-own ZT Systems 2XL5520 16GB 2x2TB SATA for $40/month (got lucky with the 'off-brand', haven't seen a RTO 2xL5520 for under $50/mo since -- at least for monthly contracts).  wholesaleinternet.com has some ancient 2-core intel CPUs @ $10/mo sometimes (I got an Intel Core 2 6300 @ 1.86GHz, with a 250GB HDD with 46000 hours on it, LOL. $20 @ Dacentec is much better, if you can grab one). joesdatacenter.com (same location as Wholesale Internet) also occasionally has specials (or if you don't want to wait, it has an AMD Opteron 170 @ $16/mo).
dooglus
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September 25, 2012, 08:18:38 PM
 #320

Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Edit: what I didn't say, but meant to imply, was: "scripting it is easy, but pointless, since every strategy is a losing strategy.  The only point of playing SD is if you have fun playing it, and having a script play it for you pretty much removes any fun, I'd have thought".

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