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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177010 times)
dooglus
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October 25, 2012, 03:19:18 PM
 #401

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed, but SD seems to have lowered their maximum bets for almost all of the games. For example, the "less then 16000" game used to have a max of 219.xxx coins. The other day, it was down to 191.xxx and now it's sitting at 123.4062.

I'm wondering though, by doing this, do they also limit their earning ability for whales who come in and lose on large bets? Is this move to lower maximum bets a recognition that their "house edge" is not wide enough to handle large bets?

I think their maximum bet was too high on some bets, and too low on others.  Their risk of ruin is probably still too high (depending on how deep Erik's pockets are, of course).

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jamesg
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October 25, 2012, 03:24:03 PM
 #402

I think their maximum bet was too high on some bets, and too low on others.  Their risk of ruin is probably still too high (depending on how deep Erik's pockets are, of course).

Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.
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October 25, 2012, 03:36:11 PM
 #403

SD Profit before fees:      11627.00933201 BTC (1.139%)

If u was running SD I would be making some big winning bets time to time (it's easy, coz I know the secret). Just for PR.

So, real profit could be higher.
dooglus
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October 26, 2012, 05:05:03 PM
 #404

Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.

What aren't you telling us?  You somehow knew about this "slide" before I published stats about it.  Are you in some way responsible?  Wink

Anyway, the slide contines:

Quote
Results: 2012-Oct-26 09:43am (up to block 205072)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    30583 |      0 (0.00000) |  30186 |     397 |     222.24 |       0.01 |    34.47 |    222.23 |   0.009
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2054 |      0 (0.00000) |   1972 |      82 |      28.99 |       0.00 |     9.64 |     28.98 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3160 |      0 (0.00000) |   3120 |      40 |      40.57 |       0.03 |     5.34 |     40.54 |   0.078
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3878 |      2 (0.00052) |   3832 |      44 |      71.57 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.50 |  22.450
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5385 |      1 (0.00019) |   5345 |      39 |     158.58 |       4.28 |     8.40 |    154.29 |   2.704
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7006 |      3 (0.00043) |   6991 |      12 |     459.44 |     303.34 |     1.29 |    156.09 |  66.025
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8743 |      8 (0.00092) |   8713 |      22 |     726.96 |     124.58 |    55.64 |    602.38 |  17.137
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10817 |     19 (0.00177) |  10742 |      56 |    1638.24 |    1274.70 |    44.25 |    363.53 |  77.809
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12042 |     55 (0.00457) |  11973 |      14 |    1835.96 |    2621.90 |    13.11 |   -785.93 | 142.808
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18671 |    143 (0.00766) |  18517 |      11 |    3539.09 |    3432.81 |     9.35 |    106.27 |  96.997
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    39033 |    595 (0.01525) |  38425 |      13 |    9914.92 |    9616.09 |     1.80 |    298.82 |  96.986
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17472 |    415 (0.02376) |  17049 |       8 |    5646.96 |    5967.16 |    15.00 |   -320.19 | 105.670
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25158 |    799 (0.03176) |  24355 |       4 |    6394.99 |    6112.24 |     9.24 |    282.75 |  95.578
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    17918 |    833 (0.04651) |  17077 |       8 |    7744.24 |    9105.92 |    24.99 |  -1361.67 | 117.583
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17743 |   1111 (0.06263) |  16628 |       4 |    5109.42 |    4735.14 |    31.20 |    374.28 |  92.675
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    23791 |   2228 (0.09372) |  21544 |      19 |   10970.32 |   11047.27 |     7.01 |    -76.94 | 100.701
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    96094 |  11819 (0.12302) |  84252 |      23 |   13011.25 |   11442.91 |     0.00 |   1568.33 |  87.946
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24105 |   4494 (0.18655) |  19596 |      15 |    9346.49 |    9591.94 |    14.50 |   -245.44 | 102.626
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   107575 |  26250 (0.24407) |  81300 |      25 |   64631.65 |   63730.37 |   566.79 |    901.28 |  98.606
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    75930 |  27918 (0.36792) |  47963 |      49 |   49897.67 |   50959.19 |   212.64 |  -1061.51 | 102.127
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   640690 | 312948 (0.48880) | 327289 |     453 |  370151.60 |  366576.00 |  2673.41 |   3575.60 |  99.034
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   223124 | 111324 (0.49936) | 111611 |     189 |  213383.05 |  210328.92 |  1295.22 |   3054.12 |  98.569
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   168497 | 123967 (0.73607) |  44450 |      80 |  166184.69 |  164080.21 |   467.98 |   2104.47 |  98.734
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    16954 |  13485 (0.79595) |   3457 |      12 |   27816.64 |   27782.14 |  1187.00 |     34.50 |  99.876
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    15596 |  13354 (0.85751) |   2219 |      23 |   23453.91 |   23242.33 |   400.00 |    211.58 |  99.098
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7660 |   7013 (0.91637) |    640 |       7 |   17428.80 |   17247.27 |     0.00 |    181.53 |  98.958
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8212 |   7903 (0.98003) |    161 |     148 |   16787.56 |   16507.13 |   239.21 |    280.42 |  98.330
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1576098 | 640603           | 933913 |    1582 |  391275.39 |  383920.77 |   153.90 |   7354.62 |  98.120
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    51793 |  26084           |  25494 |     215 |  635320.53 |  631929.29 |  7179.35 |   3391.24 |  99.466
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1627891 | 666687           | 959407 |    1797 | 1026595.93 | 1015850.06 |  7333.26 |  10745.86 |  98.953
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10745.86837858 BTC (1.047%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         821.42437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        9924.44400358 BTC (0.967%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5476197  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3022213  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:  2302.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1234.5  (53.6%)


dooglus
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October 26, 2012, 05:06:47 PM
 #405

SD Profit before fees:      11627.00933201 BTC (1.139%)

If u was running SD I would be making some big winning bets time to time (it's easy, coz I know the secret). Just for PR.

So, real profit could be higher.

If I was running SD you wouldn't know the secret.

Don't forget that it's not only good for PR to have more winning bets.  It's also good for reducing apparent profits and hence dividends.  Not that I'm accusing anyone of cheating.

jamesg
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October 26, 2012, 05:35:01 PM
 #406

Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.

What aren't you telling us?  You somehow knew about this "slide" before I published stats about it.  Are you in some way responsible?  Wink

I lend a helping hand every now and then....  Grin

Also looks like the link to the image is not working at the moment.
dooglus
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October 27, 2012, 02:24:15 AM
 #407

Also looks like the link to the image is not working at the moment.

http://i.imgur.com/173MX.png ?  It's working for me.  Maybe try clearing your cache or something?

dooglus
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October 27, 2012, 05:22:24 PM
 #408

Quote
Results: 2012-Oct-27 10:01am (up to block 205258)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    30848 |      0 (0.00000) |  30447 |     401 |     222.94 |       0.01 |    34.88 |    222.92 |   0.009
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2059 |      0 (0.00000) |   1977 |      82 |      29.03 |       0.00 |     9.64 |     29.03 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3167 |      0 (0.00000) |   3127 |      40 |      40.59 |       0.03 |     5.34 |     40.56 |   0.077
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3884 |      2 (0.00052) |   3838 |      44 |      71.59 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.52 |  22.444
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5391 |      1 (0.00019) |   5351 |      39 |     158.80 |       4.28 |     8.40 |    154.52 |   2.700
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7013 |      3 (0.00043) |   6998 |      12 |     460.46 |     303.35 |     1.29 |    157.11 |  65.879
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8757 |      8 (0.00092) |   8727 |      22 |     731.01 |     124.60 |    55.64 |    606.41 |  17.045
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10831 |     19 (0.00176) |  10756 |      56 |    1640.06 |    1274.71 |    44.25 |    365.34 |  77.724
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12057 |     55 (0.00457) |  11988 |      14 |    1836.04 |    2621.90 |    13.11 |   -785.85 | 142.802
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18692 |    143 (0.00765) |  18538 |      11 |    3541.65 |    3432.82 |     9.35 |    108.82 |  96.927
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    39307 |    604 (0.01537) |  38690 |      13 |    9924.86 |    9616.69 |     1.80 |    308.17 |  96.895
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17487 |    416 (0.02380) |  17063 |       8 |    5651.54 |    5967.39 |    15.00 |   -315.84 | 105.589
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25182 |    800 (0.03177) |  24378 |       4 |    6395.42 |    6112.40 |     9.24 |    283.02 |  95.575
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    17939 |    833 (0.04646) |  17098 |       8 |    7747.80 |    9105.93 |    24.99 |  -1358.13 | 117.529
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17758 |   1111 (0.06258) |  16643 |       4 |    5109.96 |    4735.14 |    31.20 |    374.81 |  92.665
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    23812 |   2230 (0.09373) |  21563 |      19 |   10978.33 |   11058.07 |     7.01 |    -79.74 | 100.726
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    96401 |  11858 (0.12304) |  84519 |      24 |   13030.73 |   11463.69 |     0.00 |   1567.03 |  87.974
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24119 |   4496 (0.18653) |  19607 |      16 |    9360.70 |    9645.31 |    14.50 |   -284.60 | 103.040
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   108040 |  26371 (0.24414) |  81644 |      25 |   64702.77 |   63775.94 |   566.79 |    926.82 |  98.568
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    76187 |  28016 (0.36796) |  48122 |      49 |   50272.10 |   51427.63 |   212.64 |  -1155.52 | 102.299
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   641385 | 313291 (0.48881) | 327639 |     455 |  370602.20 |  367169.88 |  2673.41 |   3432.31 |  99.074
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   223738 | 111637 (0.49938) | 111912 |     189 |  214261.60 |  211260.08 |  1295.22 |   3001.52 |  98.599
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   168993 | 124334 (0.73608) |  44579 |      80 |  166363.13 |  164277.39 |   467.98 |   2085.73 |  98.746
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17048 |  13560 (0.79596) |   3476 |      12 |   27910.55 |   27853.28 |  1187.00 |     57.26 |  99.795
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    15660 |  13403 (0.85713) |   2234 |      23 |   23490.04 |   23270.09 |   400.00 |    219.95 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7687 |   7038 (0.91641) |    642 |       7 |   18151.52 |   18018.00 |     0.00 |    133.52 |  99.264
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8238 |   7928 (0.97998) |    162 |     148 |   16797.36 |   16515.17 |   239.21 |    282.19 |  98.320
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1579774 | 642009           | 936175 |    1590 |  392145.00 |  384758.00 |   154.31 |   7386.99 |  98.116
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    51906 |  26148           |  25543 |     215 |  637337.90 |  634291.96 |  7179.35 |   3045.94 |  99.522
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1631680 | 668157           | 961718 |    1805 | 1029482.91 | 1019049.97 |  7333.67 |  10432.93 |  98.987
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10432.93825297 BTC (1.013%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         825.21847500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        9607.71977797 BTC (0.933%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5495130  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3028395  (55.1%)
Blockchain MB:  2311.0  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1237.2  (53.5%)


dooglus
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October 28, 2012, 05:39:34 PM
 #409

Quote
Results: 2012-Oct-28 10:13am (up to block 205426)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    30970 |      0 (0.00000) |  30567 |     403 |     223.30 |       0.01 |    34.95 |    223.28 |   0.009
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2073 |      0 (0.00000) |   1990 |      83 |      29.17 |       0.00 |    10.24 |     29.17 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3180 |      0 (0.00000) |   3140 |      40 |      40.63 |       0.03 |     5.34 |     40.60 |   0.077
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3904 |      2 (0.00052) |   3858 |      44 |      71.67 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.61 |  22.416
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5405 |      1 (0.00019) |   5365 |      39 |     159.24 |       4.28 |     8.40 |    154.95 |   2.693
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7032 |      3 (0.00043) |   7017 |      12 |     461.70 |     303.35 |     1.29 |    158.35 |  65.703
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8790 |      8 (0.00091) |   8759 |      23 |     731.18 |     124.60 |    55.64 |    606.58 |  17.041
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10873 |     19 (0.00176) |  10798 |      56 |    1640.40 |    1274.71 |    44.25 |    365.68 |  77.707
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12086 |     55 (0.00456) |  12017 |      14 |    1836.71 |    2621.90 |    13.11 |   -785.18 | 142.750
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18732 |    143 (0.00764) |  18578 |      11 |    3544.01 |    3432.83 |     9.35 |    111.18 |  96.863
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    39418 |    605 (0.01535) |  38800 |      13 |    9936.74 |    9623.12 |     1.80 |    313.62 |  96.844
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17503 |    417 (0.02384) |  17078 |       8 |    5651.67 |    5967.56 |    15.00 |   -315.89 | 105.589
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25195 |    801 (0.03180) |  24390 |       4 |    6395.53 |    6112.52 |     9.24 |    283.00 |  95.575
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    17956 |    834 (0.04647) |  17114 |       8 |    7750.86 |    9106.03 |    24.99 |  -1355.16 | 117.484
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17788 |   1114 (0.06264) |  16670 |       4 |    5124.24 |    4751.43 |    31.20 |    372.80 |  92.725
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    23869 |   2237 (0.09379) |  21613 |      19 |   10996.11 |   11072.27 |     7.01 |    -76.16 | 100.693
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    96632 |  11896 (0.12314) |  84712 |      24 |   13055.04 |   11487.27 |     0.00 |   1567.76 |  87.991
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24153 |   4501 (0.18648) |  19636 |      16 |    9370.32 |    9651.06 |    14.50 |   -280.73 | 102.996
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   108428 |  26469 (0.24417) |  81933 |      26 |   64792.16 |   63869.99 |   566.79 |    922.17 |  98.577
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    76335 |  28067 (0.36792) |  48219 |      49 |   50475.85 |   51520.60 |   212.64 |  -1044.74 | 102.070
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   641842 | 313526 (0.48882) | 327861 |     455 |  371036.02 |  367716.91 |  2673.41 |   3319.11 |  99.105
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   224540 | 112049 (0.49944) | 112301 |     190 |  214936.86 |  211963.78 |  1295.22 |   2973.08 |  98.617
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   169224 | 124513 (0.73614) |  44631 |      80 |  166553.44 |  164448.07 |   467.98 |   2105.37 |  98.736
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17123 |  13620 (0.79603) |   3490 |      13 |   28020.35 |   27981.74 |  1187.00 |     38.61 |  99.862
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    15776 |  13500 (0.85698) |   2253 |      23 |   25819.54 |   25580.45 |   400.00 |    239.09 |  99.074
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7712 |   7062 (0.91655) |    643 |       7 |   19470.33 |   19428.37 |     0.00 |     41.96 |  99.784
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8245 |   7935 (0.97999) |    162 |     148 |   17047.82 |   16766.73 |   239.21 |    281.08 |  98.351
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1582762 | 643153           | 938012 |    1597 |  392953.11 |  385486.12 |   154.98 |   7466.98 |  98.100
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    52022 |  26224           |  25583 |     215 |  642217.94 |  639339.66 |  7179.35 |   2878.27 |  99.552
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1634784 | 669377           | 963595 |    1812 | 1035171.05 | 1024825.79 |  7334.34 |  10345.26 |  99.001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      10345.26829890 BTC (0.999%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         828.32427500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        9516.94402390 BTC (0.919%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5512415  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3034100  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2319.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1239.7  (53.5%)


dooglus
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October 29, 2012, 04:21:36 PM
 #410

Quote
Results: 2012-Oct-29 09:16am (up to block 205581)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    31429 |      0 (0.00000) |  30999 |     430 |     224.57 |       0.01 |    36.80 |    224.56 |   0.009
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2090 |      0 (0.00000) |   2006 |      84 |      29.36 |       0.00 |    10.29 |     29.36 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3188 |      0 (0.00000) |   3147 |      41 |      40.69 |       0.03 |     5.45 |     40.66 |   0.077
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3912 |      2 (0.00052) |   3866 |      44 |      71.74 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.67 |  22.396
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5432 |      1 (0.00019) |   5392 |      39 |     159.72 |       4.29 |     8.40 |    155.43 |   2.686
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7045 |      3 (0.00043) |   7030 |      12 |     462.81 |     303.36 |     1.29 |    159.45 |  65.547
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8823 |      8 (0.00091) |   8792 |      23 |     731.62 |     124.60 |    55.64 |    607.02 |  17.031
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10897 |     19 (0.00175) |  10821 |      57 |    1648.72 |    1274.75 |    48.25 |    373.97 |  77.317
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12102 |     55 (0.00455) |  12033 |      14 |    1837.23 |    2621.90 |    13.11 |   -784.66 | 142.709
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18748 |    143 (0.00763) |  18594 |      11 |    3544.18 |    3432.83 |     9.35 |    111.34 |  96.858
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    39469 |    605 (0.01533) |  38851 |      13 |    9939.01 |    9623.12 |     1.80 |    315.88 |  96.822
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17515 |    417 (0.02382) |  17090 |       8 |    5651.74 |    5967.56 |    15.00 |   -315.82 | 105.588
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25206 |    801 (0.03178) |  24401 |       4 |    6395.89 |    6112.52 |     9.24 |    283.36 |  95.570
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    17964 |    834 (0.04645) |  17122 |       8 |    7750.92 |    9106.03 |    24.99 |  -1355.11 | 117.483
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17803 |   1114 (0.06259) |  16685 |       4 |    5125.00 |    4751.44 |    31.20 |    373.56 |  92.711
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    23925 |   2239 (0.09366) |  21667 |      19 |   11001.80 |   11074.09 |     7.01 |    -72.28 | 100.657
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    96797 |  11918 (0.12315) |  84855 |      24 |   13157.79 |   11667.72 |     0.00 |   1490.06 |  88.675
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24188 |   4505 (0.18637) |  19667 |      16 |    9372.16 |    9651.15 |    14.50 |   -278.98 | 102.977
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   108802 |  26581 (0.24436) |  82195 |      26 |   64898.73 |   64008.69 |   566.79 |    890.03 |  98.629
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    76550 |  28152 (0.36800) |  48349 |      49 |   50683.96 |   51751.88 |   212.64 |  -1067.91 | 102.107
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   642317 | 313774 (0.48885) | 328088 |     455 |  371822.60 |  368707.56 |  2673.41 |   3115.04 |  99.162
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   225549 | 112581 (0.49957) | 112776 |     192 |  216714.47 |  213993.68 |  1709.77 |   2720.78 |  98.745
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   169582 | 124782 (0.73617) |  44719 |      81 |  166965.43 |  164921.19 |   704.58 |   2044.23 |  98.776
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17219 |  13693 (0.79583) |   3513 |      13 |   28236.96 |   28241.49 |  1187.00 |     -4.52 | 100.016
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    15855 |  13569 (0.85706) |   2263 |      23 |   25868.90 |   25618.92 |   400.00 |    249.98 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7729 |   7076 (0.91634) |    646 |       7 |   19506.62 |   19458.92 |     0.00 |     47.70 |  99.755
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8260 |   7949 (0.97991) |    163 |     148 |   17056.12 |   16772.22 |   239.21 |    283.90 |  98.335
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1586192 | 644491           | 940075 |    1626 |  393796.61 |  386286.60 |   157.00 |   7510.01 |  98.093
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    52204 |  26330           |  25655 |     219 |  645102.29 |  642919.52 |  7834.50 |   2182.76 |  99.662
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1638396 | 670821           | 965730 |    1845 | 1038898.91 | 1029206.12 |  7991.51 |   9692.78 |  99.067
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       9692.78166134 BTC (0.933%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         831.95257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        8860.82908634 BTC (0.853%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5529582  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3040872  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2328.4  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1242.5  (53.4%)


dooglus
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October 29, 2012, 04:23:41 PM
 #411

This is starting to look weird.  The slide just isn't stopping.  What's going on here?

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October 29, 2012, 04:29:11 PM
 #412

This is starting to look weird.  The slide just isn't stopping.  What's going on here?

Maybe PR. Maybe bad karma. Maybe just fluctuation.
Or maybe u was right regarding dividends.
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October 29, 2012, 07:17:30 PM
 #413

If you look at the difference between small bets and big bets, the small bets aren't winning or losing particularly well but it just seems that theres a few bigger bets that are just killing the house. If you think about it, it doesn't take alot of big winning bets to hurt the house.

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October 30, 2012, 11:53:40 AM
 #414

This is starting to look weird.  The slide just isn't stopping.  What's going on here?
Indeed this looks fishy. Given the amount of bets I am tempted to not accept this as pure coincidence/bad luck.

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October 30, 2012, 12:01:23 PM
 #415

This is starting to look weird.  The slide just isn't stopping.  What's going on here?

I looks like a random walk with drift to me. You could use the Augmented Dickey Fuller test to test if the change is likely give a null hypothesis that nothing abnormal has occurred. Or I can do it if I have time.

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October 30, 2012, 02:21:52 PM
 #416

I did a few hasty calculations, with lots of assumptions and room for errors along the way, but:

I took your table for Oct 29 stats and subtracted from it the Oct 20 stats, to get the stats for the period in question.

For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.

From this I calculated the mean and variance of the profit from each type, summed over all types and compared it to the actual total profit.

I got a result which is 12.5 standard deviations below the mean (and we're talking about an approximately normal distribution).

Now, of course picking the most suspicious-looking 9-day period among half a year of statistics would skew the results. But still it would only be reasonable to get maybe 4 or 5 sd difference. 12.5 is just too much, and warrants further investigation.

Again, I could be wrong about the whole thing but at least it indicates someone needs to do a more careful analysis. A better analysis can be obtained with a table of the individual bets.

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October 30, 2012, 02:46:32 PM
 #417

Now, of course picking the most suspicious-looking 9-day period among half a year of statistics would skew the results. But still it would only be reasonable to get maybe 4 or 5 sd difference. 12.5 is just too much, and warrants further investigation.

Max bets where changed recently. This could change the pattern of bets and winnings.
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October 30, 2012, 04:27:34 PM
 #418

Secret leaked?

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October 30, 2012, 06:35:06 PM
 #419

For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.

I don't know how important this is, but I doubt that's at all close to the actual distribution.  I would expect tiny bets to be the vast majority of bets placed.  I suspect that there are thousands of sub-1 BTC bets, and very few larger bets.

I will make a text file available detailing all the bets processed in the last couple of weeks, so that you can make a proper analysis.

But first I have to go light some fires and let a little dog out to pee.  Smiley

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October 30, 2012, 06:36:54 PM
 #420

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Results: 2012-Oct-30 10:58am (up to block 205738)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    31845 |      0 (0.00000) |  31414 |     431 |     226.76 |       0.01 |    36.82 |    226.74 |   0.009
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2093 |      0 (0.00000) |   2009 |      84 |      29.37 |       0.00 |    10.29 |     29.37 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3192 |      0 (0.00000) |   3151 |      41 |      40.70 |       0.03 |     5.45 |     40.67 |   0.077
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3918 |      2 (0.00052) |   3872 |      44 |      71.75 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.68 |  22.393
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5441 |      1 (0.00019) |   5401 |      39 |     159.98 |       4.29 |     8.40 |    155.69 |   2.682
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7057 |      3 (0.00043) |   7042 |      12 |     464.45 |     303.36 |     1.29 |    161.08 |  65.317
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8888 |      8 (0.00090) |   8857 |      23 |     736.57 |     124.60 |    55.64 |    611.97 |  16.916
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10911 |     19 (0.00175) |  10835 |      57 |    1653.16 |    1274.76 |    48.25 |    378.39 |  77.111
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12125 |     55 (0.00454) |  12056 |      14 |    1837.42 |    2621.90 |    13.11 |   -784.47 | 142.694
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18847 |    143 (0.00759) |  18693 |      11 |    3545.36 |    3432.83 |     9.35 |    112.53 |  96.826
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    39924 |    610 (0.01528) |  39301 |      13 |    9978.69 |    9650.07 |     1.80 |    328.62 |  96.707
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17535 |    418 (0.02385) |  17109 |       8 |    5654.31 |    5969.28 |    15.00 |   -314.96 | 105.570
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25239 |    803 (0.03182) |  24432 |       4 |    6402.66 |    6116.10 |     9.24 |    286.55 |  95.524
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    17976 |    835 (0.04647) |  17133 |       8 |    7757.95 |    9127.38 |    24.99 |  -1369.43 | 117.652
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17851 |   1116 (0.06253) |  16731 |       4 |    5125.32 |    4751.48 |    31.20 |    373.83 |  92.706
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    23965 |   2243 (0.09367) |  21703 |      19 |   11016.96 |   11152.09 |     7.01 |   -135.12 | 101.227
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    97261 |  11968 (0.12308) |  85269 |      24 |   13225.64 |   11725.18 |     0.00 |   1500.45 |  88.655
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24236 |   4514 (0.18637) |  19706 |      16 |    9383.85 |    9664.49 |    14.50 |   -280.63 | 102.991
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   109717 |  26794 (0.24427) |  82897 |      26 |   65214.41 |   64342.94 |   566.79 |    871.47 |  98.664
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    77988 |  28677 (0.36794) |  49262 |      49 |   54512.85 |   55785.23 |   212.64 |  -1272.37 | 102.334
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   643035 | 314131 (0.48886) | 328444 |     460 |  374595.21 |  371536.31 |  2673.41 |   3058.90 |  99.183
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   229582 | 114547 (0.49935) | 114843 |     192 |  219125.35 |  216348.79 |  1709.77 |   2776.55 |  98.733
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   170660 | 125592 (0.73627) |  44987 |      81 |  167267.34 |  165222.79 |   704.58 |   2044.55 |  98.778
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17385 |  13829 (0.79605) |   3543 |      13 |   28362.54 |   28372.86 |  1187.00 |    -10.32 | 100.036
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16139 |  13821 (0.85759) |   2295 |      23 |   26514.22 |   26345.44 |   400.00 |    168.77 |  99.363
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7798 |   7143 (0.91683) |    648 |       7 |   19631.18 |   19592.08 |     0.00 |     39.10 |  99.801
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8289 |   7978 (0.97998) |    163 |     148 |   17910.32 |   17630.18 |   239.21 |    280.14 |  98.436
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1596110 | 648642           | 945836 |    1632 |  396027.19 |  388408.86 |   157.02 |   7618.33 |  98.076
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    52787 |  26608           |  25960 |     219 |  654417.26 |  652701.78 |  7834.50 |   1715.48 |  99.738
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                                |  1648897 | 675250           | 971796 |    1851 | 1050444.46 | 1041110.64 |  7991.53 |   9333.81 |  99.111
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       9333.81729799 BTC (0.889%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         842.47867500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        8491.33862299 BTC (0.808%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5561537  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3060185  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2342.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1250.5  (53.4%)


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