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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177301 times)
byronbb
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August 17, 2012, 09:35:58 PM
 #201

Damnnnnnn this thing is a printing press. FORGET MINING.

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August 18, 2012, 04:32:31 AM
 #202

It sure is addicting, I've been having a blast rolling with some of my mined coins. Thanks for this site, very enjoyable!
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August 18, 2012, 05:26:01 PM
 #203

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Results: 2012-Aug-18 10:24am (up to block 194495)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    14301 |      0 (0.00000) |  14000 |     301 |      93.00 |       0.01 |    21.98 |     92.98 |   0.021
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1276 |      0 (0.00000) |   1205 |      71 |      19.22 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     19.21 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1842 |      0 (0.00000) |   1807 |      35 |      22.41 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     22.39 |   0.102
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1986 |      1 (0.00051) |   1944 |      41 |      44.30 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     36.25 |  18.183
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2153 |      1 (0.00047) |   2118 |      34 |      77.84 |       4.21 |     7.40 |     73.63 |   5.412
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4765 |      2 (0.00042) |   4752 |      11 |     357.38 |     103.38 |     1.29 |    254.00 |  28.927
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6892 |      8 (0.00116) |   6867 |      17 |     597.06 |     124.25 |    55.64 |    472.80 |  20.811
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8580 |     19 (0.00223) |   8511 |      50 |    1532.70 |    1274.49 |    44.25 |    258.21 |  83.153
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8633 |     41 (0.00476) |   8578 |      14 |    1205.13 |    1275.95 |    13.11 |    -70.81 | 105.876
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11819 |     88 (0.00745) |  11724 |       7 |    2359.75 |    1726.11 |     9.35 |    633.63 |  73.148
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    22371 |    332 (0.01484) |  22034 |       5 |    6855.26 |    6532.18 |     1.80 |    323.07 |  95.287
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12135 |    275 (0.02267) |  11854 |       6 |    4498.90 |    4660.60 |    15.00 |   -161.70 | 103.594
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21015 |    656 (0.03122) |  20356 |       3 |    5310.47 |    4502.09 |     9.24 |    808.37 |  84.778
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13551 |    631 (0.04659) |  12913 |       7 |    6618.35 |    7933.86 |    24.99 |  -1315.51 | 119.877
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13803 |    855 (0.06196) |  12945 |       3 |    4457.42 |    3934.02 |    31.20 |    523.40 |  88.258
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18189 |   1708 (0.09395) |  16471 |      10 |    9312.22 |    9425.59 |     7.01 |   -113.37 | 101.217
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    69660 |   8548 (0.12275) |  61091 |      21 |    8102.44 |    7138.87 |     0.00 |    963.56 |  88.108
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18403 |   3463 (0.18825) |  14933 |       7 |    7475.18 |    7559.09 |    14.50 |    -83.91 | 101.123
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    53102 |  12897 (0.24291) |  40196 |       9 |   21915.38 |   21911.44 |   347.79 |      3.93 |  99.982
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    38479 |  14181 (0.36888) |  24262 |      36 |   17413.88 |   17394.93 |   212.63 |     18.95 |  99.891
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   388067 | 189124 (0.48755) | 198779 |     164 |  193919.90 |  194048.76 |  2173.21 |   -128.85 | 100.066
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   152710 |  76049 (0.49830) |  76567 |      94 |   76581.59 |   74180.25 |   789.20 |   2401.34 |  96.864
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   124731 |  91779 (0.73622) |  32884 |      68 |  115440.83 |  113610.74 |   467.98 |   1830.08 |  98.415
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6440 |   5112 (0.79416) |   1325 |       3 |   16073.04 |   15947.41 |   400.00 |    125.63 |  99.218
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     4498 |   3831 (0.85266) |    662 |       5 |    5093.05 |    5031.09 |   400.00 |     61.96 |  98.783
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1986 |   1817 (0.91675) |    165 |       4 |    2447.09 |    2434.61 |     0.00 |     12.47 |  99.490
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6599 |   6336 (0.97944) |    133 |     130 |   14847.86 |   14568.39 |   239.20 |    279.46 |  98.118
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |   999000 | 403237           | 594813 |     950 |  229219.68 |  222425.91 |   138.47 |   6793.77 |  97.036
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    28986 |  14517           |  14263 |     206 |  293452.07 |  292904.62 |  5162.35 |    547.45 |  99.813
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1027986 | 417754           | 609076 |    1156 |  522671.75 |  515330.53 |  5300.83 |   7341.22 |  98.595
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       7341.22410300 BTC (1.405%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         517.72440000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        6823.49970300 BTC (1.306%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3255634  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1889254  (58.0%)
Blockchain MB:  1358.4  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 773.3  (56.9%)


The-Real-Link
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August 20, 2012, 03:46:01 AM
 #204

  Been enjoying this a bit recently and it's fun, even though I'm losing Wink.

  Dooglus, thanks for taking all the time to compile these stats and info pieces - it's quite interesting.

  Guess I have a question for you though:  Since I'm not doing martingale bets and just doing the normal one at a time, if I send out say, two of them one after another, is it still the random Tx "ID" that makes it win or lose?  I guess it sounds like it's always better to do a single bet than try grouping anything, correct?

  It's just odd that I've made a couple coins and then proceeded to lose 3, 2BTC bets in a row atleast two or three times (which chance shows should be relatively low).  

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
dooglus
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August 20, 2012, 10:00:04 PM
 #205

if I send out say, two of them one after another, is it still the random Tx "ID" that makes it win or lose?  I guess it sounds like it's always better to do a single bet than try grouping anything, correct?

If you send them one after another, then they are completely independent events.

What you can do, however, is send multiple bets *at once* by clicking 'add recipient' on the satoshi client's 'send' tab.  If you do that, then all your bets in that transaction get the same lucky number.

The lucky number is determined completely by just 2 things: the transaction ID of the transaction containing the bet, and the day's "secret".  If you send your bets separately, they'll have completely different transaction IDs, and so their lucky numbers won't be related.

It does appear that 'luck' runs in streaks though doesn't it.  I have to believe that's just an illusion though - that we focus on winning and losing streaks and ignore the win/lose sequences that are less patterned.

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August 20, 2012, 10:04:21 PM
 #206

Quote
Results: 2012-Aug-20 03:00pm (up to block 194876)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    14695 |      0 (0.00000) |  14393 |     302 |     106.12 |       0.01 |    22.08 |    106.10 |   0.018
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1360 |      0 (0.00000) |   1289 |      71 |      20.08 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     20.08 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1901 |      0 (0.00000) |   1866 |      35 |      23.28 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     23.26 |   0.107
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2042 |      1 (0.00050) |   2000 |      41 |      45.97 |       8.06 |     4.15 |     37.91 |  17.537
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2210 |      1 (0.00046) |   2175 |      34 |      82.72 |       4.23 |     7.40 |     78.48 |   5.119
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4829 |      2 (0.00042) |   4816 |      11 |     366.67 |     103.42 |     1.29 |    263.24 |  28.206
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6995 |      8 (0.00115) |   6965 |      22 |     608.56 |     124.30 |    55.64 |    484.25 |  20.426
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8674 |     19 (0.00220) |   8605 |      50 |    1559.17 |    1274.60 |    44.25 |    284.56 |  81.749
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8705 |     42 (0.00483) |   8649 |      14 |    1212.09 |    1277.22 |    13.11 |    -65.13 | 105.374
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11933 |     89 (0.00746) |  11837 |       7 |    2389.04 |    1726.86 |     9.35 |    662.17 |  72.283
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    23073 |    341 (0.01478) |  22725 |       7 |    7781.11 |    7240.86 |     1.80 |    540.25 |  93.057
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12209 |    278 (0.02278) |  11925 |       6 |    4509.01 |    4663.29 |    15.00 |   -154.27 | 103.422
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21080 |    659 (0.03127) |  20418 |       3 |    5315.01 |    4502.81 |     9.24 |    812.20 |  84.719
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13634 |    635 (0.04660) |  12992 |       7 |    6626.07 |    7937.40 |    24.99 |  -1311.33 | 119.790
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13887 |    862 (0.06209) |  13022 |       3 |    4460.50 |    3938.57 |    31.20 |    521.92 |  88.299
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18297 |   1722 (0.09417) |  16565 |      10 |    9330.39 |    9466.29 |     7.01 |   -135.90 | 101.457
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    70469 |   8654 (0.12284) |  61794 |      21 |    8488.79 |    7446.02 |     0.00 |   1042.76 |  87.716
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18524 |   3498 (0.18891) |  15019 |       7 |    7496.35 |    7584.13 |    14.50 |    -87.77 | 101.171
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    55298 |  13442 (0.24313) |  41846 |      10 |   23891.66 |   23879.79 |   347.79 |     11.87 |  99.950
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    41555 |  15308 (0.36870) |  26211 |      36 |   18104.84 |   17947.56 |   212.63 |    157.27 |  99.131
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   396917 | 193504 (0.48772) | 203247 |     166 |  205145.92 |  205722.01 |  2173.21 |   -576.08 | 100.281
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   154571 |  76960 (0.49834) |  77472 |     139 |   80437.42 |   77749.40 |  1045.20 |   2688.01 |  96.658
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   126120 |  92814 (0.73633) |  33236 |      70 |  116210.68 |  114298.25 |   467.98 |   1912.42 |  98.354
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6672 |   5310 (0.79622) |   1359 |       3 |   16192.69 |   16069.95 |   400.00 |    122.73 |  99.242
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     5001 |   4263 (0.85328) |    733 |       5 |    5862.07 |    5719.95 |   400.00 |    142.11 |  97.576
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     2048 |   1872 (0.91630) |    171 |       5 |    2715.52 |    2713.95 |     0.00 |      1.56 |  99.942
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6643 |   6379 (0.97943) |    134 |     130 |   14969.51 |   14690.56 |   239.20 |    278.95 |  98.137
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1019253 | 411591           | 606654 |    1008 |  238418.23 |  231060.50 |   138.58 |   7357.72 |  96.914
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    30089 |  15072           |  14810 |     207 |  305533.14 |  305029.15 |  5418.35 |    503.99 |  99.835
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1049342 | 426663           | 621464 |    1215 |  543951.37 |  536089.65 |  5556.94 |   7861.72 |  98.555
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       7861.72183369 BTC (1.445%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         528.51587500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        7333.20595869 BTC (1.348%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3334348  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1929240  (57.9%)
Blockchain MB:  1393.2  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 789.7  (56.7%)


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August 20, 2012, 10:41:30 PM
 #207

Is there a way to figure out a running balance of the SatoshiDICE cash reserves? Or has that already been posted and I just don't see it? Or is it opaque?

This would seem to be quite an important figure for investors.

Thanks

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August 20, 2012, 10:52:52 PM
 #208

  Ah, gotcha.  Thanks for the insight on that Dooglus Wink

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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August 20, 2012, 10:54:03 PM
 #209

Is there a way to figure out a running balance of the SatoshiDICE cash reserves? Or has that already been posted and I just don't see it? Or is it opaque?

This would seem to be quite an important figure for investors.

Thanks


Their profit from bets, after subtracting fees is 7333 BTC.  I don't know what they started with, or how much they've paid out on advertising, development, web hosting, etc.

From the blockchain, that's all we can tell.  We can't tell what the real profit is, since there are likely to be lots of hidden (to us) expenses.

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August 20, 2012, 11:41:54 PM
 #210

We can't tell what the real profit is, since there are likely to be lots of hidden (to us) expenses.
Or, potentially fictitious income.

A plan for extreme profit:
(1) Create highly blockchain visible service
(2) Use it yourself in high volume to create the appearance of large income
(3) Raise 34500 BTC from selling shares in an IPO
(4) PROFIT!

I don't have any reason to believe this to be the case here— beyond a remaining flicker of hope that so many of my fellow men are not actually stupid enough to throw away thousands of BTC on what is apparently the least entertaining gambling site ever created— but nor can I exclude that possibility from the data made available.

Caveat Emptor.
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August 21, 2012, 05:43:20 PM
 #211

Quote
Results: 2012-Aug-21 10:23am (up to block 195022)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    14952 |      0 (0.00000) |  14649 |     303 |     107.79 |       0.01 |    22.33 |    107.77 |   0.018
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1369 |      0 (0.00000) |   1298 |      71 |      20.12 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     20.12 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1912 |      0 (0.00000) |   1877 |      35 |      23.53 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     23.50 |   0.108
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2053 |      1 (0.00050) |   2011 |      41 |      46.02 |       8.06 |     4.15 |     37.96 |  17.517
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2225 |      1 (0.00046) |   2190 |      34 |      83.60 |       4.23 |     7.40 |     79.36 |   5.069
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4848 |      2 (0.00041) |   4835 |      11 |     366.95 |     103.42 |     1.29 |    263.52 |  28.185
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7005 |      8 (0.00115) |   6975 |      22 |     608.74 |     124.30 |    55.64 |    484.43 |  20.420
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8690 |     19 (0.00220) |   8621 |      50 |    1559.22 |    1274.60 |    44.25 |    284.61 |  81.746
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8720 |     42 (0.00482) |   8664 |      14 |    1212.35 |    1277.22 |    13.11 |    -64.87 | 105.351
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11950 |     89 (0.00745) |  11854 |       7 |    2389.47 |    1726.86 |     9.35 |    662.60 |  72.270
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    23297 |    344 (0.01477) |  22946 |       7 |    7781.91 |    7241.05 |     1.80 |    540.85 |  93.050
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12222 |    279 (0.02284) |  11937 |       6 |    4510.75 |    4665.00 |    15.00 |   -154.24 | 103.419
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21089 |    659 (0.03125) |  20427 |       3 |    5315.73 |    4502.81 |     9.24 |    812.92 |  84.707
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13649 |    635 (0.04655) |  13007 |       7 |    6632.20 |    7937.43 |    24.99 |  -1305.22 | 119.680
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13906 |    863 (0.06207) |  13040 |       3 |    4461.25 |    3938.73 |    31.20 |    522.51 |  88.288
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18330 |   1723 (0.09405) |  16597 |      10 |    9341.28 |    9478.06 |     7.01 |   -136.78 | 101.464
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    70618 |   8688 (0.12306) |  61909 |      21 |    8499.63 |    7469.82 |     0.00 |   1029.81 |  87.884
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18582 |   3507 (0.18880) |  15068 |       7 |    7506.90 |    7599.99 |    14.50 |    -93.08 | 101.240
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    55824 |  13585 (0.24340) |  42229 |      10 |   24021.42 |   24105.85 |   347.79 |    -84.43 | 100.351
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    43223 |  15915 (0.36851) |  27272 |      36 |   19582.82 |   19181.69 |   212.63 |    401.13 |  97.952
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   400183 | 195092 (0.48771) | 204921 |     170 |  214058.67 |  214691.19 |  2173.21 |   -632.51 | 100.295
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   155300 |  77311 (0.49827) |  77848 |     141 |   87408.68 |   84911.46 |  1045.21 |   2497.21 |  97.143
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   126325 |  92969 (0.73636) |  33286 |      70 |  117919.77 |  116014.22 |   467.98 |   1905.54 |  98.384
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6736 |   5358 (0.79578) |   1375 |       3 |   16235.23 |   16118.72 |   400.00 |    116.51 |  99.282
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     5058 |   4313 (0.85355) |    740 |       5 |    5911.34 |    5761.07 |   400.00 |    150.26 |  97.458
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     2120 |   1935 (0.91489) |    180 |       5 |    2765.46 |    2764.83 |     0.00 |      0.62 |  99.977
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6688 |   6423 (0.97941) |    135 |     130 |   14978.36 |   14699.43 |   239.20 |    278.93 |  98.138
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1025969 | 414270           | 610684 |    1015 |  240876.13 |  233562.23 |   138.83 |   7313.89 |  96.964
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    30905 |  15491           |  15207 |     207 |  322473.20 |  322037.98 |  5418.35 |    435.22 |  99.865
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1056874 | 429761           | 625891 |    1222 |  563349.33 |  555600.21 |  5557.19 |   7749.12 |  98.624
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       7749.12012215 BTC (1.376%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         532.34702500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        7216.77309715 BTC (1.281%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3365999  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1943703  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:  1405.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 795.6  (56.6%)


dooglus
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August 21, 2012, 05:47:45 PM
 #212

A plan for extreme profit:
(1) Create highly blockchain visible service
(2) Use it yourself in high volume to create the appearance of large income
(3) Raise 34500 BTC from selling shares in an IPO
(4) PROFIT!

I don't have any reason to believe this to be the case here— beyond a remaining flicker of hope that so many of my fellow men are not actually stupid enough to throw away thousands of BTC on what is apparently the least entertaining gambling site ever created— but nor can I exclude that possibility from the data made available.

The opposite had occurred to me in the past, that perhaps the sudden staggering losses were the site's way of hiding their obscene profits by deliberately winning 'from themselves'.  That wouldn't make any sense to do when trying to sell shares though of course.

dooglus
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August 22, 2012, 04:25:58 PM
 #213

Quote
Results: 2012-Aug-22 09:16am (up to block 195165)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    15218 |      0 (0.00000) |  14913 |     305 |     108.54 |       0.01 |    22.93 |    108.52 |   0.018
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1387 |      0 (0.00000) |   1316 |      71 |      20.22 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     20.21 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1923 |      0 (0.00000) |   1888 |      35 |      23.69 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     23.67 |   0.107
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2060 |      1 (0.00050) |   2018 |      41 |      46.05 |       8.06 |     4.15 |     37.98 |  17.508
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2233 |      1 (0.00045) |   2197 |      35 |      83.62 |       4.23 |     7.40 |     79.38 |   5.068
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4860 |      2 (0.00041) |   4847 |      11 |     367.11 |     103.42 |     1.29 |    263.68 |  28.173
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7017 |      8 (0.00114) |   6987 |      22 |     608.87 |     124.30 |    55.64 |    484.56 |  20.416
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8765 |     19 (0.00218) |   8696 |      50 |    1561.62 |    1274.60 |    44.25 |    287.02 |  81.620
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8809 |     42 (0.00478) |   8753 |      14 |    1214.16 |    1277.23 |    13.11 |    -63.06 | 105.194
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11986 |     90 (0.00751) |  11889 |       7 |    2390.90 |    1739.36 |     9.35 |    651.53 |  72.749
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    23623 |    351 (0.01486) |  23265 |       7 |    7796.56 |    7243.84 |     1.80 |    552.72 |  92.911
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12297 |    283 (0.02302) |  12008 |       6 |    4512.65 |    4667.90 |    15.00 |   -155.25 | 103.440
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21143 |    661 (0.03127) |  20479 |       3 |    5320.29 |    4503.51 |     9.24 |    816.78 |  84.648
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13696 |    638 (0.04661) |  13051 |       7 |    6633.66 |    7938.37 |    24.99 |  -1304.70 | 119.668
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13991 |    869 (0.06212) |  13119 |       3 |    4465.36 |    3940.35 |    31.20 |    525.01 |  88.242
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18425 |   1731 (0.09400) |  16684 |      10 |    9346.15 |    9482.59 |     7.01 |   -136.44 | 101.460
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    71085 |   8758 (0.12324) |  62306 |      21 |    8579.53 |    7546.11 |     0.00 |   1033.41 |  87.955
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18689 |   3526 (0.18874) |  15156 |       7 |    7521.91 |    7614.06 |    14.50 |    -92.15 | 101.225
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    56311 |  13703 (0.24339) |  42598 |      10 |   24801.16 |   25033.05 |   347.79 |   -231.88 | 100.935
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    44516 |  16379 (0.36823) |  28101 |      36 |   19895.85 |   19427.26 |   212.63 |    468.59 |  97.645
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   404792 | 197303 (0.48763) | 207316 |     173 |  224104.53 |  225486.55 |  2173.21 |  -1382.01 | 100.617
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   156246 |  77777 (0.49825) |  78324 |     145 |   89102.78 |   86548.97 |  1045.21 |   2553.81 |  97.134
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   127441 |  93789 (0.73635) |  33582 |      70 |  120966.21 |  119045.44 |   467.98 |   1920.76 |  98.412
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6836 |   5429 (0.79464) |   1403 |       4 |   16320.79 |   16156.83 |   400.00 |    163.95 |  98.995
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     5216 |   4451 (0.85415) |    760 |       5 |    6056.14 |    5917.74 |   400.00 |    138.40 |  97.715
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     2251 |   2057 (0.91585) |    189 |       5 |    2887.40 |    2884.34 |     0.00 |      3.06 |  99.894
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6740 |   6473 (0.97927) |    137 |     130 |   15106.80 |   14828.27 |   239.20 |    278.53 |  98.156
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1035923 | 418409           | 616488 |    1026 |  244032.45 |  236615.03 |   139.43 |   7417.42 |  96.960
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    31633 |  15932           |  15494 |     207 |  335810.22 |  336181.50 |  5418.35 |   -371.28 | 100.111
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1067556 | 434341           | 631982 |    1233 |  579842.67 |  572796.53 |  5557.79 |   7046.14 |  98.785
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       7046.14451581 BTC (1.215%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         537.75015000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        6508.39436581 BTC (1.122%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3405684  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1964265  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:  1420.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 804.1  (56.6%)

Since Bitcoin started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6289478  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1964265  (31.2%)
Blockchain MB:  2571.4  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 804.1  (31.3%)


Mike Hearn
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August 22, 2012, 08:54:39 PM
 #214

The biggest cost of a site like this are opportunity costs for the creators. Fireduck is a skilled guy, you have to be to take my code which was designed solely with mobiles in mind and make it work on Amazon distributed storage. If you just look at server costs, maybe the site is quite profitable. If you assume he could have been working in a highly paid software engineering job or contracting, it's probably a loss maker. But of course, SD might well be more fun Smiley
2112
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August 22, 2012, 09:00:21 PM
 #215

Fireduck is a skilled guy, ... But of course, SD might well be more fun Smiley
Especially since he knows the winning numbers for the next 10 years. There's always an opportunity for "self help."

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
dooglus
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August 23, 2012, 04:29:50 PM
 #216

Quote
Results: 2012-Aug-23 09:08am (up to block 195331)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    15259 |      0 (0.00000) |  14953 |     306 |     109.32 |       0.01 |    23.03 |    109.30 |   0.018
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1393 |      0 (0.00000) |   1322 |      71 |      20.55 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     20.55 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1924 |      0 (0.00000) |   1889 |      35 |      23.89 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     23.87 |   0.108
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2061 |      1 (0.00050) |   2019 |      41 |      46.45 |       8.06 |     4.15 |     38.38 |  17.360
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2236 |      1 (0.00045) |   2200 |      35 |      84.03 |       4.23 |     7.40 |     79.79 |   5.045
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4862 |      2 (0.00041) |   4849 |      11 |     368.12 |     103.43 |     1.29 |    264.69 |  28.097
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7060 |      8 (0.00114) |   7030 |      22 |     615.51 |     124.33 |    55.64 |    491.18 |  20.200
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8803 |     19 (0.00217) |   8734 |      50 |    1564.48 |    1274.60 |    44.25 |    289.87 |  81.472
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8819 |     42 (0.00477) |   8763 |      14 |    1215.00 |    1277.23 |    13.11 |    -62.23 | 105.122
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    12002 |     90 (0.00750) |  11905 |       7 |    2391.92 |    1739.36 |     9.35 |    652.56 |  72.718
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    23662 |    352 (0.01488) |  23303 |       7 |    7801.77 |    7247.05 |     1.80 |    554.72 |  92.890
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12314 |    284 (0.02307) |  12024 |       6 |    4513.07 |    4670.03 |    15.00 |   -156.96 | 103.478
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21170 |    663 (0.03132) |  20504 |       3 |    5321.90 |    4511.50 |     9.24 |    810.40 |  84.772
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13710 |    640 (0.04671) |  13063 |       7 |    6634.86 |    7950.10 |    24.99 |  -1315.23 | 119.823
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    14034 |    872 (0.06215) |  13159 |       3 |    4469.81 |    3947.55 |    31.20 |    522.26 |  88.316
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18483 |   1735 (0.09392) |  16738 |      10 |    9391.73 |    9487.21 |     7.01 |    -95.47 | 101.017
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    71260 |   8779 (0.12323) |  62460 |      21 |    8613.57 |    7568.72 |     0.00 |   1044.84 |  87.870
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18744 |   3537 (0.18877) |  15200 |       7 |    7534.91 |    7640.74 |    14.50 |   -105.83 | 101.405
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    56612 |  13773 (0.24333) |  42829 |      10 |   24867.46 |   25101.99 |   347.79 |   -234.52 | 100.943
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    45007 |  16553 (0.36808) |  28418 |      36 |   19934.01 |   19457.93 |   212.63 |    476.07 |  97.612
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   407233 | 198472 (0.48757) | 208588 |     173 |  236317.65 |  235705.53 |  2173.21 |    612.11 |  99.741
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   157179 |  78221 (0.49812) |  78811 |     147 |   90747.58 |   88165.44 |  1045.21 |   2582.14 |  97.155
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   129056 |  94954 (0.73616) |  34032 |      70 |  124003.79 |  122001.59 |   467.98 |   2002.20 |  98.385
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6918 |   5492 (0.79433) |   1422 |       4 |   16413.68 |   16243.66 |   400.00 |    170.02 |  98.964
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     5326 |   4548 (0.85473) |    773 |       5 |    6275.26 |    6155.76 |   400.00 |    119.50 |  98.096
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     2380 |   2177 (0.91663) |    198 |       5 |    3215.59 |    3224.66 |     0.00 |     -9.06 | 100.282
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6771 |   6504 (0.97937) |    137 |     130 |   15145.29 |   14866.91 |   239.20 |    278.37 |  98.162
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1041919 | 421374           | 619516 |    1029 |  248027.91 |  240462.30 |   139.54 |   7565.61 |  96.950
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    32359 |  16345           |  15807 |     207 |  349613.42 |  348015.47 |  5418.35 |   1597.95 |  99.543
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1074278 | 437719           | 635323 |    1236 |  597641.34 |  588477.77 |  5557.89 |   9163.56 |  98.467
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       9163.56807155 BTC (1.533%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         541.15817500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        8622.40989655 BTC (1.443%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3438391  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1977396  (57.5%)
Blockchain MB:  1433.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 809.5  (56.5%)


dooglus
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August 23, 2012, 05:27:31 PM
 #217

A nice 2k BTC profit for SD in the last 24 hours.

Looks like most of it came from a single address.  Here are the biggest losers over the period:

<32000 31c4f5db22f2a432ea3637b1beb2536e78965d47806452848ff6da6bd1877909 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET  53 LOSE
<32000 a9aad57cf63995cc37bd2b4390d9955a77e61795c65b77df4b98297e1ab757cc 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 134 LOSE
<32000 470e362ad4e3675d817e5e15486d30a369a653da8639d9a7e7f3b0fc1f96d142 1NZfuJLeq7jktGB1asESXTZqh8MBEE6hHb BET 151 LOSE
<32000 4883910410301a11bf9e069744f89821b5a10a4431f17d0b84896169311d8636 14wQQyNTFhyV1hauFMFXpeWhQ6PRFC2LzM BET 183 LOSE
<32000 d3ba562936a8e9231a2d35e536d0822ee034caf6e817503169ee79923a50e1b4 1Gx6kKam9Zx9h3zr1zs2Zn1exf44D5shxh BET 223 LOSE
<32000 c20ac7dab6727a0309099ff1d5e9d72d2a8d0d26a9773af469bf2d2fb0b51d70 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 234 LOSE
<32000 b6a1718fa559b7697eefd5b9e1df387a97608433770b9052c6f8954bd1621a7e 1FQdAgchLJcQbVbdKVGy2ALhySWya5ycp7 BET 249 LOSE
<32000 45f51a5388da94c53409ccf56e9f7618cd5807e0feedd7d2d874c526836b26c6 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 250 LOSE
<32000 d56ddbfa757a1e0e01a04669074dfd8d33bca7ed5d7922eca61cc9cb9df4dabf 1K7LiKpARZFGZwbHhL6GENTw8D9w7LfFug BET 250 LOSE

mrvision
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August 23, 2012, 05:57:36 PM
 #218

I was playing today (and loosing some coins) and i noticed that my lucky number was always bigger than the last one, and when it reached some number near 64000 it started again. So i suppose that the timestamp has a lot to do with the "secret".... or maybe coincidence.

TEXT1TEXT2
dooglus
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August 23, 2012, 07:38:35 PM
 #219

I was playing today (and loosing some coins) and i noticed that my lucky number was always bigger than the last one, and when it reached some number near 64000 it started again. So i suppose that the timestamp has a lot to do with the "secret".... or maybe coincidence.

Yeah, the timestamp has nothing to do with the magic number.  All that is used to make the magic number is the daily secret (which changes only once per day) and the transaction id of your bet (which doesn't contain a timestamp).  So it's just coincidence.

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down.  Unless it stays the same.

Carlos L.
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August 24, 2012, 07:07:38 PM
 #220

Although it is true that your lucky number will keep going up until it goes down.  Unless it stays the same.
You almost got me there.  Grin
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