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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177313 times)
MPOE-PR
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January 23, 2013, 08:14:47 AM
 #721

There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours.  I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume.  It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now:



Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?

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January 23, 2013, 08:22:40 AM
 #722

Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?

It's showing the cumulative total amount bet so far.  A linear graph would imply zero growth in bet volume.

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January 23, 2013, 09:16:29 AM
 #723

The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update!  (block 217599 - 217616)

Indeed - and they're still playing...

Quote
Results: 2013-Jan-22 08:42pm (up to block 217651)

SD Profit before fees:      46089.86961885 BTC (2.153%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1847.76947500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       44242.10014385 BTC (2.066%)
Pending Liabilities:         -682.69538813 BTC
Final SD Profit:            44924.79553198 BTC (2.098%)

And going....

Over 13,000BTC profit up to 217654....

2 of that was myself.

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January 23, 2013, 09:42:00 AM
 #724

I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume. 

Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.

Thanks !

Je donne des conseils et des cours de trading. MP Pour plus d'infos.
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January 23, 2013, 12:43:37 PM
 #725


Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.

Thanks !

Instead of using one lucky number for every s. dice betting address (i.e. less than 2000, 8000, 16000) when a bunch of bets are placed at the same time from a single address, s.dice now uses a different lucky number for every transaction component. This would decrease the variance.
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January 23, 2013, 12:44:36 PM
 #726

There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours.  I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume.  It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now:



Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?

Looks more exponential than linear to me. Especially when you add in today's action.
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January 23, 2013, 12:48:35 PM
 #727

My rudimentary analysis estimates that there were over 100,000 BTC bet in the last 17 hours since Doog's last chart, and S.DICE is up about 10,000 since then.  They were up more, but the whales clawed a few thousand back.  The betting is still ongoing, coming in bursts of 4000BTC every thirty minutes or so, bet across a variety of levels (< 1k, 2k, 12k, 16k, 32k for example).   

This brings the total volume to around 420,000 for the month, which is now back on pace to beat last month in total betting volume, and a bit behind last month's return (though very close to the actual EV for this amount bet).



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January 23, 2013, 08:36:28 PM
 #728


Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.

Thanks !

Instead of using one lucky number for every s. dice betting address (i.e. less than 2000, 8000, 16000) when a bunch of bets are placed at the same time from a single address, s.dice now uses a different lucky number for every transaction component. This would decrease the variance.

Crystal Clear now ! Thank you Bugpowder Smiley

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January 23, 2013, 09:51:32 PM
 #729

Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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January 23, 2013, 09:57:03 PM
 #730

The betting is continuing, but here's an update of how it currently stands.  I'm including 4 charts - the usual 2, plus a close-up of the last 2 days, and an updated version of yesterday's total volume chart...

Quote
            txid:n   block               date   game (lucky - result   )                            address   stake  payout  profit cumulative profit
------------------  ------ ------------------ ------  -----   ---------  ----------------------------------   -----  ------  ------ -----------------
0c10b25be859305f:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (10752 - WIN      ) 1PbbTTRD6eAAuJyWt3Zeow7tsB2VyrtnL1   27.00   54.10   27.10   27.10
16fa9d994402ba98:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <60000 (14073 - WIN      ) 17Jf91YdzdRcnrTjiuUj5HV6mcZepNka7L    0.10    0.11    0.01   27.11
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (60710 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00    0.50  -99.50  -72.39
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (47792 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00    0.50  -99.50 -171.89
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:2  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 ( 5526 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  300.00  801.04  501.04  329.15
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:3  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <16000 (27478 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  250.00    1.25 -248.75   80.40
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:4  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <12000 (64778 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  200.00    1.00 -199.00 -118.60
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:5  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  ( 4047 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk   50.00  400.02  350.02  231.42
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:6  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <2000  (38399 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    5.00    0.02   -4.98  226.44
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:7  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1000  ( 1800 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    5.00    0.02   -4.98  221.46
2fc8c914ca8f77a9:8  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1     (38567 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    0.10    0.00   -0.10  221.36
5125b8f4a3e2c328:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (34828 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00    0.50  -99.50  121.86
5125b8f4a3e2c328:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (12214 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00  200.38  100.38  222.25
5125b8f4a3e2c328:2  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 (44370 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  300.00    1.50 -298.50  -76.25
5125b8f4a3e2c328:3  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <16000 ( 9493 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  250.00 1000.67  750.67  674.42
5125b8f4a3e2c328:4  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <12000 (21365 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  200.00    1.00 -199.00  475.42
5125b8f4a3e2c328:5  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  (41261 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk   50.00    0.25  -49.75  425.67
59b40084abb72b0c:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (20518 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  100.00  195.70   95.70  521.37
59b40084abb72b0c:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (14811 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  100.00  200.38  100.38  621.75
59b40084abb72b0c:2  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 (24996 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  300.00    1.50 -298.50  323.25
59b40084abb72b0c:3  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <16000 (50242 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  250.00    1.25 -248.75   74.50
59b40084abb72b0c:4  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <12000 (10515 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  200.00 1067.05  867.05  941.56
59b40084abb72b0c:5  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  (17731 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ   50.00    0.25  -49.75  891.80
75816618469b7b14:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 (43539 - LOSE     ) 1AmUoVoD5padEaXqDb4pZCuxySLosWCMAk    0.10    0.00   -0.10  891.70
768badc66fc566e3:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (45155 - LOSE     ) 1BKWdJSWwTncL9weunbRzuZfAAAEQ7KYJF    0.50    0.00   -0.50  891.21
7ca07bb0c20bfa61:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (55759 - LOSE     ) 1CKnTS8TGRRDTXcqRMv8mTgjPJE1bGywu8    0.01    0.00   -0.01  891.20
850abada511c65d1:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (59762 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00    0.50  -99.50  791.70
850abada511c65d1:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (17332 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  100.00  200.38  100.38  892.08
850abada511c65d1:2  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 (60906 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  300.00    1.50 -298.50  593.58
850abada511c65d1:3  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <16000 (42642 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  250.00    1.25 -248.75  344.83
850abada511c65d1:4  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <12000 (33963 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk  200.00    1.00 -199.00  145.83
850abada511c65d1:5  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  ( 5251 - WIN      ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk   50.00  400.02  350.02  495.85
850abada511c65d1:6  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <2000  (18362 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    5.00    0.02   -4.98  490.87
850abada511c65d1:7  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1000  (59585 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    5.00    0.02   -4.98  485.90
850abada511c65d1:8  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1     (11997 - LOSE     ) 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    0.10    0.00   -0.10  485.80
89053c8ad2b1401d:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  (33633 - LOSE     ) 12PvE1KWgcExaPAGVfVN7eQbE15Mumy2RT    0.06    0.00   -0.05  485.74
8a6ff231110120ba:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <60000 (26812 - WIN      ) 16UfzAh7Yt5PczZoDBYxtZL86CLiX8hM1H    0.30    0.32    0.02  485.76
abded937086bd3fe:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32768 (22760 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  100.00  195.70   95.70  581.46
abded937086bd3fe:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 (38214 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  100.00    0.50  -99.50  481.96
abded937086bd3fe:2  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <24000 ( 8639 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  300.00  801.04  501.04  983.00
abded937086bd3fe:3  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <16000 ( 4004 - WIN      ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  250.00 1000.67  750.67 1733.67
abded937086bd3fe:4  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <12000 (15450 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ  200.00    1.00 -199.00 1534.67
abded937086bd3fe:5  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <8000  (27280 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ   50.00    0.25  -49.75 1484.92
abded937086bd3fe:6  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <2000  (15808 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ    5.00    0.02   -4.98 1479.95
abded937086bd3fe:7  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1000  (33235 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ    5.00    0.02   -4.98 1474.97
abded937086bd3fe:8  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <1     (21168 - LOSE     ) 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ    0.10    0.00   -0.10 1474.87
d4928bd673ee5cbb:0  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <32000 ( 9886 - WIN      ) 18JP8n2bzJhNXqiQvrS5h28mgEuGDaTn51    1.00    2.00    1.00 1475.88
e020ae404363feb2:1  217745 13:38:11 Jan-23-13 <48000 (61964 - LOSE     ) 1PEWrUhgw8tToAcCFC46fC7yAdGX4erHCo    5.00    0.02   -4.98 1470.90
                                                                                                              -----   -----   -----
                                                                                                            5064.36 6535.26 1470.90

Total of 48 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-23 01:52pm (up to block 217745)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    74238 |       0 (0.00000) |   72969 |    1269 |     724.47 |       0.01 |    96.53 |    724.45 |   0.003
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3722 |       0 (0.00000) |    3229 |     493 |      58.67 |       0.00 |    16.53 |     58.66 |   0.015
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     5809 |       1 (0.00019) |    5389 |     419 |      81.87 |     159.97 |     8.46 |    -78.09 | 195.380
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8510 |       3 (0.00037) |    8082 |     425 |     125.47 |     176.00 |    10.03 |    -50.52 | 140.268
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    10253 |       1 (0.00010) |    9840 |     412 |     299.33 |       4.54 |    18.66 |    294.79 |   1.519
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    11084 |       3 (0.00028) |   10689 |     392 |     585.45 |     303.55 |     1.36 |    281.90 |  51.849
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    13069 |      12 (0.00095) |   12648 |     409 |     840.43 |     155.74 |    55.71 |    684.69 |  18.531
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    15911 |      30 (0.00194) |   15451 |     430 |    1919.21 |    1374.08 |    48.32 |    545.13 |  71.596
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    17723 |      76 (0.00438) |   17272 |     375 |    2214.29 |    3537.63 |    13.16 |  -1323.33 | 159.763
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    26303 |     197 (0.00769) |   25426 |     680 |    4387.62 |    4116.88 |     9.96 |    270.74 |  93.829
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    81370 |    1234 (0.01525) |   79691 |     445 |   20980.90 |   17965.32 |     1.93 |   3015.58 |  85.627
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    20175 |     473 (0.02386) |   19353 |     349 |    6479.04 |    6562.48 |    15.07 |    -83.43 | 101.288
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    48815 |    1503 (0.03103) |   46935 |     377 |   22998.35 |   20417.32 |     9.31 |   2581.02 |  88.777
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    23386 |    1065 (0.04636) |   21906 |     415 |    8540.91 |    9743.09 |    25.10 |  -1202.17 | 114.075
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29028 |    1759 (0.06137) |   26902 |     367 |    6625.04 |    6173.71 |    31.27 |    451.32 |  93.188
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    34138 |    3175 (0.09409) |   30569 |     394 |   13908.71 |   15616.11 |     7.14 |  -1707.40 | 112.276
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   141157 |   17315 (0.12305) |  123398 |     444 |   62881.46 |   61714.42 |   100.20 |   1167.03 |  98.144
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    55779 |   10217 (0.18460) |   45130 |     432 |  115935.65 |  118874.54 |  3314.65 |  -2938.88 | 102.535
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   170044 |   41321 (0.24368) |  128253 |     470 |  246396.92 |  239653.45 |  2056.05 |   6743.47 |  97.263
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   159907 |   58639 (0.36788) |  100757 |     511 |  265821.56 |  259454.43 |  1012.95 |   6367.13 |  97.605
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   892359 |  435120 (0.48837) |  455843 |    1396 |  611509.01 |  601099.84 |  2924.09 |  10409.16 |  98.298
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   407159 |  202932 (0.49945) |  203378 |     849 |  445241.73 |  434213.47 |  5720.31 |  11028.26 |  97.523
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   262175 |  192486 (0.73566) |   69165 |     524 |  256676.27 |  250984.59 |  5454.84 |   5691.68 |  97.783
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    49679 |   39140 (0.79458) |   10119 |     420 |   52881.54 |   51915.79 |  1187.17 |    965.75 |  98.174
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    37922 |   32093 (0.85650) |    5377 |     452 |   53040.69 |   52570.21 |   400.18 |    470.47 |  99.113
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    49524 |   44973 (0.91598) |    4125 |     426 |   53290.06 |   52897.49 |     0.15 |    392.56 |  99.263
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    12532 |   11594 (0.98138) |     220 |     718 |   22067.80 |   21705.12 |   239.59 |    362.67 |  98.357
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2575096 | 1053689           | 1507403 |   14004 |  588349.62 |  575978.62 |   216.14 |  12370.99 |  97.897
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    86675 |   41673           |   44713 |     289 | 1688162.98 | 1655411.27 | 22562.70 |  32751.70 |  98.060
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2661771 | 1095362           | 1552116 |   14293 | 2276512.61 | 2231389.90 | 22778.84 |  45122.70 |  98.018
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      45122.70600030 BTC (1.982%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1858.34577500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       43264.36022530 BTC (1.900%)
Pending Liabilities:         1470.89993161 BTC
Final SD Profit:            41793.46029369 BTC (1.836%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  8710737  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  4900454  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   3710.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2011.1  (54.2%)








StarenseN
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January 23, 2013, 10:00:25 PM
 #731

Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?

I suggest you to open an excel sheet (I'm using google drive) and put that line in one cell:

=ImportHtml("http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=500&min_bet=1&status=ALL","table",0)


Then you'will have all bets between 500-1 (you can tune the limits in the URL ^) display on several columns


You just have to deduce bets amount by payment amounts and you have an current P/L

cheers

Je donne des conseils et des cours de trading. MP Pour plus d'infos.
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January 23, 2013, 10:02:50 PM
 #732

Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?

I use BitcoinArmory/extras/sample_armory_code.py in etotheipi's Armory git repository to parse the bets out of the blockchain.

Bugpowder
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January 24, 2013, 01:38:15 PM
 #733

I think the action has finally slowed.

My excel sheet is saying S.DICE ended up around +14,000
StarenseN
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January 24, 2013, 01:53:40 PM
 #734

I think the action has finally slowed.

My excel sheet is saying S.DICE ended up around +14,000

Yes I am around that figure also with a rough excel analysis, but still need confirmation. If SD run pretty well (I mean not far from the house edge) we will surely break the USD net and even BTC net won in December.

Smiley

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dooglus
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January 24, 2013, 09:04:25 PM
 #735

Quote
Total of 35 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-24 12:56pm (up to block 217896)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    74628 |       0 (0.00000) |   73350 |    1278 |     737.65 |       0.01 |   102.44 |    737.63 |   0.003
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3724 |       0 (0.00000) |    3230 |     494 |      58.68 |       0.00 |    16.53 |     58.67 |   0.015
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     5816 |       1 (0.00019) |    5395 |     420 |      81.97 |     159.97 |     8.46 |    -77.99 | 195.141
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8522 |       3 (0.00037) |    8094 |     425 |     125.72 |     176.00 |    10.03 |    -50.27 | 139.990
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    10304 |       1 (0.00010) |    9891 |     412 |     300.06 |       4.54 |    18.66 |    295.52 |   1.515
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    11103 |       3 (0.00028) |   10708 |     392 |     586.77 |     303.55 |     1.36 |    283.22 |  51.732
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    13113 |      12 (0.00094) |   12688 |     413 |     843.64 |     155.74 |    55.72 |    687.89 |  18.462
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    15944 |      30 (0.00193) |   15484 |     430 |    1922.68 |    1374.09 |    48.32 |    548.59 |  71.467
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    17729 |      76 (0.00438) |   17277 |     376 |    2215.33 |    3537.63 |    13.16 |  -1322.30 | 159.689
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    26379 |     197 (0.00767) |   25501 |     681 |    4392.13 |    4116.89 |     9.97 |    275.24 |  93.733
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    81694 |    1237 (0.01523) |   80010 |     447 |   21141.64 |   18031.91 |     1.94 |   3109.73 |  85.291
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    20179 |     473 (0.02385) |   19357 |     349 |    6480.06 |    6562.48 |    15.07 |    -82.42 | 101.272
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    49022 |    1508 (0.03100) |   47134 |     380 |   23248.70 |   20646.05 |     9.31 |   2602.64 |  88.805
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    23400 |    1067 (0.04642) |   21918 |     415 |    8542.83 |    9756.12 |    25.10 |  -1213.29 | 114.203
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29040 |    1762 (0.06145) |   26910 |     368 |    6626.62 |    6183.66 |    31.28 |    442.95 |  93.315
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    34196 |    3181 (0.09411) |   30620 |     395 |   13911.99 |   15619.68 |     7.14 |  -1707.68 | 112.275
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   141508 |   17359 (0.12306) |  123705 |     444 |   64377.88 |   63665.07 |   100.20 |    712.81 |  98.893
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    56063 |   10264 (0.18450) |   45367 |     432 |  120723.95 |  121908.68 |  3314.65 |  -1184.73 | 100.981
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   171002 |   41558 (0.24370) |  128973 |     471 |  258638.43 |  248367.70 |  2056.05 |  10270.73 |  96.029
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   161836 |   59362 (0.36797) |  101961 |     513 |  287195.22 |  284823.93 |  1012.95 |   2371.28 |  99.174
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   898035 |  437858 (0.48833) |  458777 |    1400 |  624446.92 |  612488.42 |  2924.09 |  11958.49 |  98.085
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   409135 |  203928 (0.49948) |  204356 |     851 |  455214.95 |  444991.04 |  5720.32 |  10223.90 |  97.754
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   262743 |  192900 (0.73565) |   69316 |     527 |  258138.46 |  252566.93 |  5454.85 |   5571.53 |  97.842
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    49805 |   39231 (0.79441) |   10153 |     421 |   53112.25 |   51998.41 |  1187.17 |   1113.83 |  97.903
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    38083 |   32222 (0.85635) |    5405 |     456 |   53140.44 |   52658.09 |   400.19 |    482.34 |  99.092
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    50032 |   45434 (0.91593) |    4170 |     428 |   53456.87 |   53052.77 |     0.16 |    404.09 |  99.244
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    12590 |   11643 (0.98129) |     222 |     725 |   22089.61 |   21726.60 |   239.61 |    363.00 |  98.357
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2587832 | 1059191           | 1514587 |   14054 |  591138.81 |  578702.57 |   222.15 |  12436.23 |  97.896
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    87793 |   42119           |   45385 |     289 | 1750612.76 | 1716173.54 | 22562.70 |  34439.21 |  98.033
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2675625 | 1101310           | 1559972 |   14343 | 2341751.58 | 2294876.12 | 22784.86 |  46875.45 |  97.998
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      46875.45622037 BTC (2.002%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1872.36727500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       45003.08894537 BTC (1.922%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.58006950 BTC
Final SD Profit:            45002.50887587 BTC (1.922%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  8753911  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  4925861  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   3731.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2021.8  (54.2%)




Carlos L.
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January 25, 2013, 09:21:13 AM
 #736

 Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
Herbert
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January 25, 2013, 10:03:11 AM
 #737

Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
Indeed. People playing with bitcoin like it was monopoly money  Shocked

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Bowjob
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January 25, 2013, 10:13:29 AM
 #738

Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
Indeed. People playing with bitcoin like it was monopoly money  Shocked

These whales are literally throwing away the gold bars of the future! Perhaps they are stressing the Dice while it's still young.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Bugpowder
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January 25, 2013, 12:35:05 PM
 #739

Another 60,000 in bets with it pretty much flat since last plot.
dooglus
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January 25, 2013, 10:47:33 PM
 #740

I like how closely the actual profit matches the theoretical 1.9% profit.

Quote
Total of 99 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-25 02:29pm (up to block 218037)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    75092 |       0 (0.00000) |   73811 |    1281 |     749.64 |       0.01 |   102.45 |    749.62 |   0.003
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3730 |       0 (0.00000) |    3236 |     494 |      58.95 |       0.00 |    16.53 |     58.94 |   0.015
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     5826 |       1 (0.00018) |    5405 |     420 |      82.13 |     159.97 |     8.46 |    -77.83 | 194.765
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8541 |       3 (0.00037) |    8113 |     425 |     125.97 |     176.00 |    10.03 |    -50.02 | 139.712
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    10324 |       1 (0.00010) |    9911 |     412 |     300.41 |       4.54 |    18.66 |    295.86 |   1.513
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    11141 |       3 (0.00028) |   10746 |     392 |     588.16 |     303.55 |     1.36 |    284.61 |  51.610
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    13183 |      12 (0.00094) |   12756 |     415 |     846.01 |     155.74 |    55.72 |    690.26 |  18.410
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    16014 |      31 (0.00199) |   15553 |     430 |    1926.39 |    1379.09 |    48.32 |    547.30 |  71.589
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    17757 |      76 (0.00437) |   17304 |     377 |    2216.72 |    3537.64 |    13.17 |  -1320.91 | 159.589
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    26433 |     199 (0.00773) |   25552 |     682 |    4395.18 |    4119.39 |     9.97 |    275.79 |  93.725
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    82267 |    1243 (0.01519) |   80577 |     447 |   21246.73 |   18099.51 |     1.94 |   3147.22 |  85.187
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    20194 |     474 (0.02389) |   19371 |     349 |    6480.54 |    6564.61 |    15.07 |    -84.06 | 101.297
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    49458 |    1525 (0.03107) |   47551 |     382 |   23530.32 |   20907.52 |     9.31 |   2622.80 |  88.854
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    23411 |    1068 (0.04644) |   21927 |     416 |    8543.77 |    9756.34 |    25.10 |  -1212.57 | 114.192
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29100 |    1765 (0.06143) |   26966 |     369 |    6628.66 |    6185.07 |    31.28 |    443.59 |  93.308
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    34339 |    3191 (0.09401) |   30752 |     396 |   13931.48 |   15629.03 |     7.14 |  -1697.55 | 112.185
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   142114 |   17439 (0.12310) |  124230 |     445 |   65367.25 |   64659.54 |   100.20 |    707.71 |  98.917
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    56482 |   10336 (0.18441) |   45712 |     434 |  123216.03 |  125597.58 |  3314.66 |  -2381.55 | 101.933
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   171656 |   41709 (0.24365) |  129476 |     471 |  266866.96 |  256503.13 |  2056.05 |  10363.82 |  96.116
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   164133 |   60215 (0.36802) |  103403 |     515 |  315386.80 |  312902.06 |  1012.95 |   2484.73 |  99.212
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   902662 |  440074 (0.48829) |  461184 |    1404 |  637554.47 |  623759.38 |  2924.11 |  13795.09 |  97.836
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   411070 |  204874 (0.49943) |  205340 |     856 |  465946.03 |  456193.29 |  5720.33 |   9752.73 |  97.907
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   264716 |  194362 (0.73570) |   69826 |     528 |  258662.37 |  252975.62 |  5454.85 |   5686.74 |  97.801
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    49994 |   39370 (0.79421) |   10201 |     423 |   53354.68 |   52238.89 |  1187.18 |   1115.78 |  97.909
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    38260 |   32369 (0.85630) |    5432 |     459 |   53276.87 |   52804.21 |   400.20 |    472.65 |  99.113
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    50515 |   45871 (0.91594) |    4210 |     434 |   53894.03 |   53490.43 |     0.17 |    403.60 |  99.251
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    12639 |   11682 (0.98135) |     222 |     735 |   22093.68 |   21730.68 |   239.63 |    363.00 |  98.357
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2602217 | 1065356           | 1522759 |   14102 |  594444.98 |  581802.96 |   222.28 |  12642.02 |  97.873
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    88834 |   42537           |   46008 |     289 | 1812825.41 | 1778030.01 | 22562.70 |  34795.39 |  98.081
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2691051 | 1107893           | 1568767 |   14391 | 2407270.40 | 2359832.97 | 22784.98 |  47437.42 |  98.029
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      47437.42324502 BTC (1.971%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1887.93397500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       45549.48927002 BTC (1.892%)
Pending Liabilities:            6.82273133 BTC
Final SD Profit:            45542.66653869 BTC (1.892%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  8803750  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  4954633  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   3753.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2033.6  (54.2%)




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