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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177357 times)
dooglus
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March 17, 2013, 05:09:48 PM
 #1021

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Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-17 09:44am (up to block 226394)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   101464 |       1 (0.00001) |   99856 |    1607 |    1182.90 |    1280.39 |   127.07 |    -97.49 | 108.242
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5368 |       0 (0.00000) |    4841 |     527 |      91.45 |       0.04 |    20.72 |     91.40 |   0.051
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7828 |       1 (0.00014) |    7373 |     454 |     118.80 |     160.01 |    12.84 |    -41.21 | 134.688
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12760 |       5 (0.00041) |   12285 |     470 |     253.11 |     432.11 |    10.08 |   -179.00 | 170.718
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14292 |       1 (0.00007) |   13849 |     442 |     490.65 |       5.03 |    22.07 |    485.62 |   1.026
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19539 |       9 (0.00047) |   19126 |     404 |    1114.93 |    1396.44 |     1.40 |   -281.50 | 125.249
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20074 |      24 (0.00122) |   19580 |     470 |    1481.28 |     803.40 |    55.82 |    677.87 |  54.237
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19681 |      37 (0.00192) |   19184 |     460 |    2345.85 |    1557.72 |    48.39 |    788.12 |  66.403
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24357 |     106 (0.00442) |   23866 |     385 |    4603.28 |    7359.89 |    13.20 |  -2756.61 | 159.884
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    33949 |     273 (0.00821) |   32975 |     701 |    5879.88 |    5685.66 |    10.04 |    194.22 |  96.697
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   119973 |    1819 (0.01523) |  117629 |     525 |   36973.21 |   32284.23 |     2.07 |   4688.97 |  87.318
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24648 |     571 (0.02351) |   23719 |     358 |    7678.34 |    8378.89 |    15.09 |   -700.55 | 109.124
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    75335 |    2335 (0.03116) |   72602 |     398 |   37746.56 |   33760.47 |     9.37 |   3986.09 |  89.440
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28850 |    1314 (0.04625) |   27097 |     439 |    9348.77 |   10071.35 |    25.18 |   -722.57 | 107.729
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34798 |    2121 (0.06165) |   32285 |     392 |    7649.33 |    7440.07 |    31.35 |    209.25 |  97.264
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    47545 |    4338 (0.09213) |   42750 |     457 |   16075.08 |   17886.65 |     7.34 |  -1811.56 | 111.269
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   186068 |   22773 (0.12273) |  162784 |     511 |   91933.92 |   90740.01 |   100.48 |   1193.91 |  98.701
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    96420 |   17556 (0.18312) |   78318 |     546 |  171344.11 |  173053.66 |  3314.91 |  -1709.55 | 100.998
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   248176 |   60431 (0.24406) |  187178 |     567 |  367455.00 |  353569.21 |  2322.46 |  13885.79 |  96.221
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   249181 |   91534 (0.36822) |  157052 |     595 |  584068.95 |  575840.05 |  1013.25 |   8228.90 |  98.591
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1130273 |  550834 (0.48807) |  577773 |    1666 |  881581.71 |  864483.75 |  2925.01 |  17097.96 |  98.061
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   613783 |  306087 (0.49962) |  306547 |    1149 |  664456.06 |  648406.55 |  6521.29 |  16049.50 |  97.585
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   346065 |  253914 (0.73509) |   91503 |     648 |  300459.95 |  292938.67 |  5455.33 |   7521.27 |  97.497
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    76186 |   60104 (0.79437) |   15558 |     524 |   61828.91 |   60536.40 |  1187.60 |   1292.50 |  97.910
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    64554 |   54815 (0.85681) |    9161 |     578 |   78054.27 |   77400.42 |   400.57 |    653.85 |  99.162
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   100043 |   91143 (0.91617) |    8340 |     560 |   71432.15 |   70620.14 |     0.54 |    812.01 |  98.863
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17040 |   15585 (0.97970) |     323 |    1132 |   24094.49 |   23681.13 |   240.24 |    413.36 |  98.284
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3602879 | 1484923           | 2101283 |   16673 |  778713.01 |  764501.42 |   265.14 |  14211.59 |  98.175
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   115371 |   52808           |   62271 |     292 | 2651030.06 | 2595271.07 | 23628.70 |  55758.98 |  97.897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3718250 | 1537731           | 2163554 |   16965 | 3429743.07 | 3359772.49 | 23893.85 |  69970.57 |  97.960
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      69970.57836050 BTC (2.040%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2919.32917500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67051.24918550 BTC (1.955%)
Pending Liabilities:          -48.11025127 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67099.35943677 BTC (1.956%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11664317  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6842211  (58.7%)
Blockchain MB:   5014.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2814.6  (56.1%)




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March 18, 2013, 12:31:22 AM
 #1022

Thank you Mr. dooglus. That is really an informative analysis. It tells the gamblers out there that if you want to do a martinegale on 50% (lessthan 32768), you better have a bankroll good for 26 consecutive losses (as a maximum). Although you could always beat the record. The maximum bet means you'll be forced to bet the maximum more than once just to recoup losses if you reach this far.

I'm just curious about another statistic. What's the next longest streak (2nd longest, 3rd longest, 4th longest)? And how often did they occur, if more than once?

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organofcorti
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March 18, 2013, 12:46:34 AM
 #1023

Thank you Mr. dooglus. That is really an informative analysis. It tells the gamblers out there that if you want to do a martinegale on 50% (lessthan 32768), you better have a bankroll good for 26 consecutive losses (as a maximum). Although you could always beat the record. The maximum bet means you'll be forced to bet the maximum more than once just to recoup losses if you reach this far.

I'm just curious about another statistic. What's the next longest streak (2nd longest, 3rd longest, 4th longest)? And how often did they occur, if more than once?

You're really wanting a theoretical analysis than a statistical one. I think you're looking for probabilities of various runs in various games.

When you look at maxima there will be a lot of variance, so it's meaningless to point at one result and say "This the maximum you can expect". Instead, it would be better to point at a result and say "There's a 5% probability a run will last long then n losses in a row". I'll post how to do that when I get home.

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March 18, 2013, 02:31:24 AM
 #1024

Hi Mr. organofcorti,

The theoretical part can be computed with formulas, but that's just a guess. Here, we have the actual historical data of what actually happened. The odds of winning are very close to the actual win:loss. The formula for consecutive losses isn't as close to actual losses especially with that weird 65 losses in a row.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but statistics is based on actuarial data. Theoretical possibilities or probabilities are just that, it's possible or it's probably, but not necessarily what already happened. It can still happen.

In any case, both the formula and the historical data are interesting. Why do some match and why do others not seem to match... or will these numbers change a few years from now, or will it be more of the same ... or it doesn't matter since the house always wins.

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March 18, 2013, 03:15:35 AM
 #1025

Hi Mr. organofcorti,
Please don't call me that. "Mr. organofcorti" is my father. Just "ooc" will be fine.

The theoretical part can be computed with formulas, but that's just a guess.

No, it's not a guess. That's why it's called "Theory". Are you really so certain that SatoshiDice are not playing fair that you want to find the slightest variation from the expected values?

Here, we have the actual historical data of what actually happened. The odds of winning are very close to the actual win:loss. The formula for consecutive losses isn't as close to actual losses especially with that weird 65 losses in a row.

There is no "formula for consecutive losses". There is one for expected consecutive losses in n trials, in the same way that there is an expected number of shares that can solve a block.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but statistics is based on actuarial data. Theoretical possibilities or probabilities are just that, it's possible or it's probably, but not necessarily what already happened. It can still happen.

In any case, both the formula and the historical data are interesting. Why do some match and why do others not seem to match... or will these numbers change a few years from now, or will it be more of the same ... or it doesn't matter since the house always wins.

You're not understanding how to analyse this.It is a little complicated, and you have a bit of a learning curve ahead, but you're still confusing the expected or average number of consecutive wins/losses in n trials with a probabilistic confidence interval. The reason some results are closer to the expected value than other has to do with how likely a particular run of losses is.  For this we use probability rather than statistics.

For example, if there are twice as many losses in a run than expected, we can calculate the probability of that occurring, assuming that SatoshiDice is playing fair.

If you're trying to prove  SatoshiDice is not playing fair, then you use statistics, providing a null and an alternative hypothesis and proving your point with a certain level of confidence (usually p < 0.05).

The problem with trying to find these confidence intervals using real life data is that you will need hundreds of repeats of the data to find out if it agrees with theory.

So you pick a game, decide on the number of trials you want to investigate (say 100) and consecutively split the data into runs of 100 trials. Find the largest number of consecutive losses in each run, and take the average. Only then can you compare the theoretical expected value with the actual average value.

If you want to find the probability of a particular number of runs occurring, using the same data you recorded as above, divide the longest runs into percentile groups. Say you record 10000 runs of 100 trials of a coin flip, and 0.001% of the runs there are more than say 20 consecutive losses. You can say for the sample group that the probability of more 20 losses is 0.001%, and that 99.999% of the time the number of consecutive losses in 100 trials will be smaller than this.

If you compare the quantile groups you calculated to theoretical quantiles, or the probabilities to theoretical probabilities, you can again calculate the probability of the dataset belonging to the same probability distribution as the theoretical probability distribution.

Edit: By all means carry on with your investigations. I find this sort of thing very interesting too, and it might provide a great opportunity for you to learn more about statistics and probability. Personally, I find it hard to learn things unless I need to solve a problem in which I'm interested. Perhaps the same will be true for you.







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March 18, 2013, 04:30:41 AM
 #1026

Mr. ooc, or just ooc?

Anyway, immediate history is interesting. I do not think I am trying to prove that SatoshiDice is fair or not; it seems to me that it is indeed fair considering the secrets, the hashes, the lucky numbers, etc. They can't cheat you, but it is possible for players to cheat them.

I don't really know why I am investigating this or analyzing the numbers, I just find it interesting. I mean, we have 3.7 million bets already. I am also playing the game (or rather, I'm gambling my 0.01 coins.) so the results interest me in what is possible, especially since this is practically a game of chance that is provably fair (after the secrets are revealed.)

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March 18, 2013, 04:39:14 AM
 #1027

When you look at maxima there will be a lot of variance, so it's meaningless to point at one result and say "This the maximum you can expect". Instead, it would be better to point at a result and say "There's a 5% probability a run will last long then n losses in a row". I'll post how to do that when I get home.

What do you think about the 65 losses in a row on "lessthan 32000"?  Is that statistically significant?  It seems to me very unlikely to have happened in just 1,127,422 bets.  I would think we can expect around 10 losses in a row in 1000 bets, and maybe 20 in a row in a million bets.  But 65 losses in a row?

See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632802#msg1632802 for the stats.

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March 18, 2013, 04:59:21 AM
 #1028

When you look at maxima there will be a lot of variance, so it's meaningless to point at one result and say "This the maximum you can expect". Instead, it would be better to point at a result and say "There's a 5% probability a run will last long then n losses in a row". I'll post how to do that when I get home.

What do you think about the 65 losses in a row on "lessthan 32000"?  Is that statistically significant?  It seems to me very unlikely to have happened in just 1,127,422 bets.  I would think we can expect around 10 losses in a row in 1000 bets, and maybe 20 in a row in a million bets.  But 65 losses in a row?

See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632802#msg1632802 for the stats.

I'll have a go at the theoretical result when I get home. In the meantime I can rustle up a quick simulation and get confidence intervals from that. Can you post the probability of winning the less than "lessthan 32000" for me? Can't get on to SatoshiDice at work.

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March 18, 2013, 05:03:43 AM
 #1029

Mr. ooc, or just ooc?

No, "Mr. ooc" is my grandfather. "ooc" is fine.

Anyway, immediate history is interesting. I do not think I am trying to prove that SatoshiDice is fair or not; it seems to me that it is indeed fair considering the secrets, the hashes, the lucky numbers, etc. They can't cheat you, but it is possible for players to cheat them.
Good point - you do have an aim here.

Even if you think you don't:
I don't really know why I am investigating this or analyzing the numbers, I just find it interesting. I mean, we have 3.7 million bets already. I am also playing the game (or rather, I'm gambling my 0.01 coins.) so the results interest me in what is possible, especially since this is practically a game of chance that is provably fair (after the secrets are revealed.)

The only way you can show if anything unusual is going on is by a theoretical comparison. Otherwise you have no idea how unlikely what you are observing actually is. That's ok if you have lots of data points - you can always say "from this sample we expect blah blah to happen blah times". But if you have one data point then you can't generalise

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March 18, 2013, 05:13:07 AM
 #1030

I'll have a go at the theoretical result when I get home. In the meantime I can rustle up a quick simulation and get confidence intervals from that. Can you post the probability of winning the less than "lessthan 32000" for me? Can't get on to SatoshiDice at work.

It's 32000/65536.

The 'lucky number' is a 16 bit number (0 through 65535).  You win 'lessthan N' when this lucky number is less than N...

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March 18, 2013, 07:43:02 AM
 #1031

Simulation results:



This histogram is the result of running a thousand repetitions of 1127422 trials and record the longest number of losses in a row. From the simulated results, we can say that the probability of less than 16 in a row and more than 31 in a row is less than one in a thousand. So I'd say 65 in a row is significantly improbable.

Since I'm home now I've looked for the paper I thought I had but can't find it. The histogram looks familiar though and I think it might be an extreme value distribution, but I'm not sure. I'll keep looking.


If you want to try the simulation for yourself, especially if you have a faster computer than my macbook air and want to try more than a thousand repetitions, here's the R script I wrote:

Code:
require(ggplot2)


# function to generate simulated maximum losses in a row
sim.func <- function(x) {
   #create x trials: win = 1, loss = 0
   # and find all wins and losses in a row
a <- rle(rbinom(x, 1, 32000/65536))
# find the longest number of losses in a row
b <- max(a$lengths[which(a$values == 0)])
# if no losses, return 0 otherwise return b
if(b == -Inf){return(0)} else {return(b)}
                         }
# number of trials
trials <- 1127422

# number of repetition of trials
# change for greater accuracy
repetitions <- 1000

# generate results
result <- sapply(rep(trials, repetitions), sim.func)
result.df <- data.frame(count = result)

# generate plot
plot.1 <- ggplot(result.df, aes(x=count)) +
geom_bar(binwidth=1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(min(result.df),max(result.df),2)) +
labs( x = "", y = "Count",
title = "Histogram of simulated maximum number of sequential losses:\n1000 repetitions of 1127422 trials at P(win) = 32000/65536") +
xlab("") + ylab("count")

# display plot
plot.1

#eof

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March 18, 2013, 05:39:19 PM
 #1032

Quote
Total of 116 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-18 10:11am (up to block 226585)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   101988 |       1 (0.00001) |  100377 |    1610 |    1192.71 |    1280.44 |   127.16 |    -87.72 | 107.355
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5394 |       0 (0.00000) |    4867 |     527 |      91.80 |       0.04 |    20.72 |     91.75 |   0.053
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7843 |       1 (0.00014) |    7388 |     454 |     118.97 |     160.01 |    12.84 |    -41.04 | 134.496
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12771 |       5 (0.00041) |   12295 |     471 |     253.25 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -178.86 | 170.624
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14440 |       1 (0.00007) |   13997 |     442 |     504.01 |       5.09 |    22.07 |    498.91 |   1.012
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19557 |       9 (0.00047) |   19142 |     406 |    1118.92 |    1396.46 |     1.42 |   -277.53 | 124.804
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20129 |      24 (0.00122) |   19633 |     472 |    1482.20 |     803.41 |    55.83 |    678.78 |  54.204
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19693 |      38 (0.00198) |   19195 |     460 |    2346.08 |    1562.72 |    48.39 |    783.36 |  66.610
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24642 |     107 (0.00441) |   24150 |     385 |    5786.07 |    8615.09 |    13.20 |  -2829.02 | 148.894
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35169 |     283 (0.00821) |   34184 |     702 |    8043.53 |    6649.68 |    10.05 |   1393.85 |  82.671
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   120701 |    1828 (0.01521) |  118347 |     526 |   37575.90 |   32391.51 |     2.07 |   5184.38 |  86.203
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24665 |     571 (0.02349) |   23736 |     358 |    7678.76 |    8378.90 |    15.09 |   -700.13 | 109.118
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    75533 |    2341 (0.03116) |   72794 |     398 |   37767.33 |   33774.64 |     9.37 |   3992.68 |  89.428
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28871 |    1314 (0.04622) |   27118 |     439 |    9349.22 |   10071.35 |    25.18 |   -722.13 | 107.724
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34830 |    2124 (0.06168) |   32313 |     393 |    7650.02 |    7440.57 |    31.36 |    209.45 |  97.262
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    47623 |    4343 (0.09208) |   42822 |     458 |   16225.95 |   18047.53 |     7.35 |  -1821.57 | 111.226
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   186393 |   22828 (0.12281) |  163054 |     511 |   92039.23 |   90842.76 |   100.48 |   1196.46 |  98.700
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    96620 |   17587 (0.18306) |   78485 |     548 |  171362.02 |  173070.84 |  3314.92 |  -1708.81 | 100.997
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   248991 |   60618 (0.24401) |  187805 |     568 |  367654.47 |  353716.85 |  2322.47 |  13937.61 |  96.209
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   249931 |   91792 (0.36815) |  157543 |     596 |  584211.49 |  576000.36 |  1013.26 |   8211.13 |  98.594
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1131917 |  551595 (0.48803) |  578653 |    1669 |  884082.39 |  866511.01 |  2925.02 |  17571.37 |  98.012
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   615371 |  306879 (0.49963) |  307335 |    1157 |  664912.95 |  648883.45 |  6521.31 |  16029.50 |  97.589
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   347427 |  254909 (0.73508) |   91868 |     650 |  300838.35 |  293322.99 |  5455.33 |   7515.35 |  97.502
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    76412 |   60282 (0.79438) |   15604 |     526 |   61876.44 |   60578.22 |  1187.60 |   1298.21 |  97.902
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    65123 |   55291 (0.85668) |    9250 |     582 |   78135.48 |   77479.40 |   400.57 |    656.07 |  99.160
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   100562 |   91622 (0.91622) |    8378 |     562 |   71478.41 |   70663.11 |     0.55 |    815.29 |  98.859
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17101 |   15636 (0.97976) |     323 |    1142 |   24174.05 |   23761.04 |   240.25 |    413.01 |  98.291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3613734 | 1489139           | 2107875 |   16720 |  782102.39 |  766948.63 |   265.38 |  15153.75 |  98.062
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   115963 |   52890           |   62781 |     292 | 2655847.74 | 2598891.09 | 23628.70 |  56956.64 |  97.855
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3729697 | 1542029           | 2170656 |   17012 | 3437950.14 | 3365839.73 | 23894.08 |  72110.40 |  97.903
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72110.40752716 BTC (2.097%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2930.85937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69179.54815216 BTC (2.012%)
Pending Liabilities:          -62.78002244 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69242.32817460 BTC (2.014%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11704937  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6863053  (58.6%)
Blockchain MB:   5033.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2823.1  (56.1%)




dooglus
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March 18, 2013, 06:19:04 PM
 #1033

The recent activity seems to be someone betting 5 BTC on lessthan 256 over and over, and winning once:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=dc0c383dabfaeec4

dooglus
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March 19, 2013, 05:58:26 PM
 #1034

Quote
Total of 51 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-19 10:55am (up to block 226786)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   103083 |       1 (0.00001) |  101467 |    1615 |    1205.57 |    1280.51 |   127.38 |    -74.93 | 106.216
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5407 |       0 (0.00000) |    4880 |     527 |      92.85 |       0.05 |    20.72 |     92.80 |   0.058
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7855 |       1 (0.00014) |    7399 |     455 |     119.23 |     160.02 |    12.84 |    -40.78 | 134.209
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12782 |       5 (0.00041) |   12305 |     472 |     253.74 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -178.37 | 170.299
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14451 |       1 (0.00007) |   14007 |     443 |     504.48 |       5.10 |    22.07 |    499.38 |   1.011
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19588 |       9 (0.00047) |   19171 |     408 |    1123.34 |    1396.48 |     1.42 |   -273.13 | 124.315
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20148 |      24 (0.00122) |   19652 |     472 |    1482.77 |     803.41 |    55.83 |    679.35 |  54.183
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19714 |      38 (0.00197) |   19215 |     461 |    2346.51 |    1562.72 |    48.39 |    783.79 |  66.598
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24846 |     108 (0.00442) |   24353 |     385 |    5806.07 |    8640.17 |    13.20 |  -2834.10 | 148.813
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35322 |     284 (0.00820) |   34335 |     703 |    8102.74 |    6651.22 |    10.05 |   1451.52 |  82.086
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   121967 |    1843 (0.01518) |  119597 |     527 |   37868.48 |   32601.49 |     2.07 |   5266.99 |  86.091
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24693 |     571 (0.02346) |   23764 |     358 |    7679.70 |    8378.90 |    15.09 |   -699.20 | 109.105
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    76698 |    2379 (0.03118) |   73921 |     398 |   37982.76 |   33999.91 |     9.37 |   3982.84 |  89.514
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28886 |    1314 (0.04619) |   27133 |     439 |    9349.60 |   10071.35 |    25.18 |   -721.74 | 107.720
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34861 |    2127 (0.06171) |   32341 |     393 |    7651.32 |    7441.22 |    31.36 |    210.10 |  97.254
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    47744 |    4353 (0.09206) |   42931 |     460 |   16285.74 |   18056.25 |     7.36 |  -1770.50 | 110.872
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   186750 |   22864 (0.12277) |  163375 |     511 |   92085.13 |   90881.73 |   100.48 |   1203.40 |  98.693
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    96890 |   17653 (0.18324) |   78686 |     551 |  171385.52 |  173106.26 |  3314.93 |  -1720.74 | 101.004
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   250073 |   60904 (0.24410) |  188600 |     569 |  367809.05 |  353922.68 |  2322.47 |  13886.36 |  96.225
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   250880 |   92136 (0.36813) |  158147 |     597 |  584377.76 |  576207.28 |  1013.26 |   8170.47 |  98.602
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1133650 |  552409 (0.48800) |  579567 |    1674 |  886338.37 |  868056.73 |  2925.04 |  18281.63 |  97.937
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   617273 |  307827 (0.49963) |  308282 |    1164 |  665659.47 |  649685.22 |  6521.35 |  15974.25 |  97.600
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   349039 |  256094 (0.73509) |   92289 |     656 |  302532.53 |  295034.14 |  5455.35 |   7498.38 |  97.521
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    76805 |   60594 (0.79438) |   15684 |     527 |   62088.47 |   60819.12 |  1187.61 |   1269.34 |  97.956
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    65798 |   55872 (0.85675) |    9342 |     584 |   78260.74 |   77602.77 |   400.58 |    657.96 |  99.159
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   101357 |   92363 (0.91635) |    8431 |     563 |   71624.13 |   70808.70 |     0.56 |    815.43 |  98.862
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17172 |   15698 (0.97966) |     326 |    1148 |   24178.52 |   23765.45 |   240.26 |    413.06 |  98.292
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3627559 | 1494451           | 2116340 |   16768 |  784609.63 |  769255.93 |   265.72 |  15353.69 |  98.043
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   116173 |   53021           |   62860 |     292 | 2659585.07 | 2602115.18 | 23628.70 |  57469.89 |  97.839
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3743732 | 1547472           | 2179200 |   17060 | 3444194.71 | 3371371.12 | 23894.43 |  72823.59 |  97.886
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72823.59070833 BTC (2.114%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2944.91287500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69878.67783333 BTC (2.029%)
Pending Liabilities:          -70.17872411 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69948.85655744 BTC (2.031%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11754760  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6886914  (58.6%)
Blockchain MB:   5056.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2833.8  (56.0%)




dooglus
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March 19, 2013, 06:01:28 PM
 #1035

Some of the recent big bets:

Quote
Tue Mar 19 00:51:55 2013 <32000 226656 c982e858edbd80cc:3  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    12.80000000 LOSE   -12.73600000
Tue Mar 19 00:54:30 2013 <32000 226657 3891265e256d0f1c:0  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    25.60000000 LOSE   -25.47200000
Tue Mar 19 01:47:15 2013 <32000 226660 3bfdcda75c3fce7e:1  1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET    51.20000000 LOSE   -50.94400000
Tue Mar 19 01:59:41 2013 <32000 226661 595dc785b33be9f6:0  1GEvQXYptHBx8vrCvbyAeRoATDi5jShqWU BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Tue Mar 19 02:13:32 2013 <32000 226662 5d3f51cd17db153b:0  1B7knWTDp2xq6gkMdoLv5UpE1wZuUBtBgV BET   200.00000000 LOSE  -199.00000000
Tue Mar 19 02:20:26 2013 <32000 226663 1638ff60b7844a7e:0  1Mwa4cqNKenC7o2hAdByd6c4kYs8rN1Czr BET   400.00000000 LOSE  -398.00000000

Tue Mar 19 04:31:41 2013 <32000 226677 4855a6154ba86425:0  18eYvQjX42xGRFeUeufcuKpqYejoJk5WUz BET   400.00000000 WIN    401.53920000

Tue Mar 19 06:07:03 2013 <48000 226691 a2d8f83241217ee7:0  13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Tue Mar 19 06:35:58 2013 <48000 226694 c50e3a659e00cc45:0  13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET    40.00000000 LOSE   -39.80000000
Tue Mar 19 07:15:48 2013 <32000 226697 eb9d81dcf7b97b9a:0  1NkXTYELvEu9vRBftGupGfErraajc4Qnnh BET    82.00000000 LOSE   -81.59000000
Tue Mar 19 07:36:29 2013 <32000 226700 848bc526110e8983:1  1NPxBmoBUFQqpH9SwaeKqBeALfi99TWc7F BET   167.77000000 LOSE  -166.93115000

dooglus
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March 20, 2013, 08:23:05 PM
 #1036

Quote
Total of 49 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-20 01:20pm (up to block 227001)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   103606 |       1 (0.00001) |  101987 |    1618 |    1212.85 |    1280.54 |   127.39 |    -67.69 | 105.582
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     5418 |       0 (0.00000) |    4891 |     527 |      93.00 |       0.05 |    20.72 |     92.95 |   0.059
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     7869 |       1 (0.00013) |    7413 |     455 |     119.55 |     160.02 |    12.84 |    -40.46 | 133.851
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    12793 |       5 (0.00041) |   12315 |     473 |     254.02 |     432.12 |    10.09 |   -178.09 | 170.110
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    14464 |       1 (0.00007) |   14019 |     444 |     504.73 |       5.10 |    22.07 |    499.63 |   1.011
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    19611 |       9 (0.00047) |   19193 |     409 |    1124.02 |    1396.49 |     1.43 |   -272.46 | 124.240
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    20180 |      24 (0.00122) |   19682 |     474 |    1483.30 |     803.41 |    55.83 |    679.88 |  54.164
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    19726 |      38 (0.00197) |   19227 |     461 |    2346.81 |    1562.72 |    48.39 |    784.08 |  66.589
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    24858 |     108 (0.00441) |   24364 |     386 |    5809.30 |    8640.19 |    13.20 |  -2830.89 | 148.730
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35350 |     285 (0.00823) |   34360 |     705 |    8105.45 |    6652.48 |    10.06 |   1452.97 |  82.074
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   122431 |    1854 (0.01521) |  120050 |     527 |   37942.61 |   32638.32 |     2.07 |   5304.29 |  86.020
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    24718 |     571 (0.02344) |   23789 |     358 |    7681.10 |    8378.91 |    15.09 |   -697.80 | 109.085
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    77101 |    2389 (0.03115) |   74314 |     398 |   38089.24 |   34076.24 |     9.37 |   4013.00 |  89.464
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    28917 |    1315 (0.04618) |   27162 |     440 |    9357.85 |   10073.52 |    25.19 |   -715.67 | 107.648
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    34888 |    2129 (0.06172) |   32365 |     394 |    7652.59 |    7443.14 |    31.36 |    209.45 |  97.263
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    47893 |    4367 (0.09207) |   43066 |     460 |   16307.24 |   18094.54 |     7.36 |  -1787.30 | 110.960
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   187255 |   22915 (0.12271) |  163828 |     512 |   92301.13 |   90967.67 |   100.48 |   1333.46 |  98.555
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    97305 |   17731 (0.18326) |   79020 |     554 |  171577.63 |  173241.18 |  3314.95 |  -1663.54 | 100.970
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   251659 |   61314 (0.24419) |  189773 |     572 |  368026.12 |  354133.80 |  2322.48 |  13892.31 |  96.225
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   251922 |   92504 (0.36807) |  158821 |     597 |  584551.94 |  576394.26 |  1013.26 |   8157.68 |  98.604
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1135494 |  553299 (0.48800) |  580518 |    1677 |  886821.70 |  868491.31 |  2925.05 |  18330.39 |  97.933
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   619570 |  308943 (0.49958) |  309459 |    1168 |  666654.20 |  650595.99 |  6521.36 |  16058.21 |  97.591
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   350445 |  257138 (0.73513) |   92649 |     658 |  302888.46 |  295386.93 |  5455.35 |   7501.53 |  97.523
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    77146 |   60854 (0.79429) |   15760 |     532 |   62311.87 |   61019.62 |  1187.63 |   1292.24 |  97.926
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    66390 |   56385 (0.85685) |    9420 |     585 |   78510.16 |   77847.48 |   400.58 |    662.68 |  99.156
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   102241 |   93173 (0.91636) |    8504 |     564 |   71911.91 |   70945.61 |     0.56 |    966.30 |  98.656
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    17273 |   15790 (0.97971) |     327 |    1156 |   24189.19 |   23776.16 |   240.27 |    413.02 |  98.293
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3640186 | 1500063           | 2123311 |   16812 |  786583.37 |  771140.34 |   265.85 |  15443.03 |  98.037
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   116337 |   53080           |   62965 |     292 | 2661244.73 | 2603297.58 | 23628.70 |  57947.15 |  97.823
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3756523 | 1553143           | 2186276 |   17104 | 3447828.11 | 3374437.92 | 23894.55 |  73390.19 |  97.871
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73390.19062760 BTC (2.129%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2957.71537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70432.47525260 BTC (2.043%)
Pending Liabilities:          -65.14752384 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70497.62277644 BTC (2.045%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11804054  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6910079  (58.5%)
Blockchain MB:   5078.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2843.7  (56.0%)




Carlos L.
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March 21, 2013, 05:32:02 PM
 #1037

http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c

 Shocked
DutchBrat
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March 21, 2013, 05:45:07 PM
 #1038


Damn, now that is a nice win !!! almost $ 140.000  Cheesy
apetersson
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March 21, 2013, 06:44:39 PM
 #1039

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?
FTWbitcoinFTW
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March 21, 2013, 06:52:20 PM
 #1040

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?

Same question

Address : http://blockchain.info/address/1GH1PJjbL5KXLzAAjnYEcJrqCwJVJ9r8zs

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
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