Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[nimda]

Wheee!

Honestly it looks like its in the realm of possibility to me. Compare it to the 11/08 jump.

[1714217123]

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[Meni Rosenfeld]

For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.

I don't know how important this is, but I doubt that's at all close to the actual distribution.  I would expect tiny bets to be the vast majority of bets placed.  I suspect that there are thousands of sub-1 BTC bets, and very few larger bets.

I will make a text file available detailing all the bets processed in the last couple of weeks, so that you can make a proper analysis.

But first I have to go light some fires and let a little dog out to pee.  

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

Honestly it looks like its in the realm of possibility to me. Compare it to the 11/08 jump.

That's what I think too. I did those calculations in an attempt to demonstrate that this is indeed nothing to worry about (not the best way to do science, but my methodology was simple enough not to be influenced by my prejudice). Which is why I was a bit surprised by my result, but variance in the bet amounts may explain them away.

[dooglus]

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

[Meni Rosenfeld]

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

These should be enough.

[dooglus]

It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.

What fields do you want to see per bet?

block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return?

Anything else?

These should be enough.

OK, I made a text file of the bets from the last 1500 blocks or so (since the decline started) here (both the same, the 2nd is gzip compressed)

http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt (4955 KB)
http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt.gz (299 KB)

In doing so, I noticed that the SD bottom line has dropped further since this morning's stats post.  Now it's:

SD Profit after fees:        8122.86383142 BTC (0.772%)

Here's the first 7 lines from the file, where things started going downhill:

Code:

204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266
204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266
204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,12000,WIN,0.30000000,1.60007840
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1000,WIN,2.00000000,127.93577200
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,512,WIN,2.00000000,249.86550000
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1500,WIN,1.00000000,42.64659066
204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,32000,LOSE,0.50000000,0.00200000

That's block_number,time_and_date,target,result,stake,return

So the first line is a "lessthan 6000" bet winning, and so is the 2nd line.  2 separate bets, both winning:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=0a4d8505e11b3af56f31016c8d738927a0a62aececc0b0e8c81dd8d471ef8f83
http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=b6723d3c2227c288910088dff5f332fff675014b12e46dddb75278aa1efc8d03

[Meni Rosenfeld]

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

[dooglus]

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events.  You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction.  All such bets get the same 'magic number'.

I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations.  If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Oct-31 10:56am (up to block 205877)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    32390 |      0 (0.00000) |  31955 |     435 |     229.18 |       0.01 |    37.05 |    229.16 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2101 |      0 (0.00000) |   2015 |      86 |      29.39 |       0.00 |    10.45 |     29.39 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3210 |      0 (0.00000) |   3168 |      42 |      41.70 |       0.03 |     5.65 |     41.67 |   0.075
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3925 |      2 (0.00052) |   3879 |      44 |      71.75 |      16.06 |     5.65 |     55.69 |  22.391
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5448 |      1 (0.00018) |   5408 |      39 |     160.06 |       4.29 |     8.40 |    155.77 |   2.680
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7068 |      3 (0.00043) |   7053 |      12 |     464.66 |     303.36 |     1.29 |    161.29 |  65.287
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8929 |      8 (0.00090) |   8897 |      24 |     737.83 |     124.60 |    55.64 |    613.22 |  16.888
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10925 |     19 (0.00175) |  10849 |      57 |    1658.28 |    1274.79 |    48.25 |    383.49 |  76.874
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12459 |     55 (0.00442) |  12387 |      17 |    1840.81 |    2621.90 |    13.12 |   -781.08 | 142.432
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    18926 |    143 (0.00756) |  18772 |      11 |    3548.87 |    3432.83 |     9.35 |    116.03 |  96.730
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    40265 |    615 (0.01528) |  39637 |      13 |   10024.92 |    9652.85 |     1.80 |    372.07 |  96.289
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17552 |    418 (0.02383) |  17126 |       8 |    5680.16 |    5969.40 |    15.00 |   -289.23 | 105.092
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25267 |    804 (0.03183) |  24459 |       4 |    6404.69 |    6116.42 |     9.24 |    288.26 |  95.499
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    18013 |    835 (0.04638) |  17170 |       8 |    7762.14 |    9127.40 |    24.99 |  -1365.25 | 117.589
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    17885 |   1116 (0.06241) |  16765 |       4 |    5129.26 |    4751.49 |    31.20 |    377.76 |  92.635
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    24079 |   2256 (0.09377) |  21804 |      19 |   11072.34 |   11275.17 |     7.01 |   -202.83 | 101.832
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    97633 |  12012 (0.12306) |  85597 |      24 |   13373.28 |   11887.83 |     0.00 |   1485.45 |  88.892
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24292 |   4527 (0.18649) |  19748 |      17 |    9412.69 |    9708.52 |    14.50 |   -295.83 | 103.143
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   110685 |  27026 (0.24423) |  83633 |      26 |   65814.07 |   64973.82 |   566.79 |    840.25 |  98.723
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    78812 |  28984 (0.36799) |  49779 |      49 |   55512.94 |   56799.35 |   212.64 |  -1286.41 | 102.317
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   643802 | 314481 (0.48882) | 328860 |     461 |  376146.46 |  373287.86 |  2923.41 |   2858.59 |  99.240
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   232858 | 116146 (0.49920) | 116520 |     192 |  221882.56 |  219108.13 |  1709.77 |   2774.42 |  98.750
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   171071 | 125890 (0.73624) |  45100 |      81 |  167442.96 |  165379.64 |   704.58 |   2063.31 |  98.768
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17441 |  13873 (0.79602) |   3555 |      13 |   28467.20 |   28490.24 |  1187.00 |    -23.03 | 100.081
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16236 |  13903 (0.85752) |   2310 |      23 |   26834.11 |   26711.24 |   400.00 |    122.86 |  99.542
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     7917 |   7244 (0.91580) |    666 |       7 |   20225.02 |   20175.20 |     0.00 |     49.81 |  99.754
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8306 |   7995 (0.98002) |    163 |     148 |   17934.44 |   17654.39 |   239.21 |    280.04 |  98.439
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1604287 | 651548           | 951095 |    1644 |  397936.35 |  390164.85 |   157.60 |   7771.49 |  98.047
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    53208 |  26808           |  26180 |     220 |  659965.53 |  658682.09 |  8084.50 |   1283.43 |  99.806
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1657495 | 678356           | 977275 |    1864 | 1057901.89 | 1048846.95 |  8242.11 |   9054.93 |  99.144
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       9054.93751467 BTC (0.856%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         851.09407500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        8203.84343967 BTC (0.775%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5590392  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3076136  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2355.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1257.2  (53.4%)

[Meni Rosenfeld]

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events.  You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction.  All such bets get the same 'magic number'.

I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations.  If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which.

It would be a bit more work to take into account grouped bets. But the impact of the fact that those exist is that the variance will be higher, meaning the results are even more plausible.

I think it would be fine to try to carry out a more sophisticated statistical test, and/or ask the operators if they know of anything which could cause a problem. But if not that's also fine, the results are within the realm of possibility.

[nibor]

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

1000 seems too big to me.

there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000.

[Meni Rosenfeld]

Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.

The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.

1000 seems too big to me.

there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000.

This has very little to do with the number of bets (in particular you seem to want to use the base-2 log but I see no justification for that. Probabilities are not on the same scale as information bits). It's about how many choices there are to choose the period to analyze. With a very simplistic calculation, you have 180 choices for the start date and about 10 choices for the length, which would come up as 1800. Now you have to correct for the correlations, the fact that we didn't actually go and optimize the worst period, etc. Maybe something like 500 or even less is more appropriate but again this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation. I agree that it is unusual enough to look into it further.

[dooglus]

'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... 

Results: 2012-Nov-01 12:17pm (up to block 206023)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    32953 |      0 (0.00000) |  32492 |     461 |     231.99 |       0.01 |    37.17 |    231.97 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2140 |      0 (0.00000) |   2054 |      86 |      32.13 |       0.00 |    10.45 |     32.13 |   0.006
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3361 |      0 (0.00000) |   3319 |      42 |      44.99 |       0.03 |     5.65 |     44.95 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3950 |      2 (0.00051) |   3904 |      44 |      74.16 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     58.09 |  21.675
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5476 |      1 (0.00018) |   5436 |      39 |     163.38 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    159.08 |   2.632
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7102 |      3 (0.00042) |   7087 |      12 |     473.27 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    169.87 |  64.107
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     8984 |      8 (0.00089) |   8952 |      24 |     746.72 |     124.63 |    55.64 |    622.09 |  16.691
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    11032 |     19 (0.00173) |  10956 |      57 |    1669.86 |    1274.84 |    48.25 |    395.02 |  76.344
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12602 |     56 (0.00445) |  12529 |      17 |    1858.95 |    2624.47 |    13.12 |   -765.52 | 141.180
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    19055 |    144 (0.00756) |  18899 |      12 |    3571.02 |    3434.17 |     9.35 |    136.85 |  96.168
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    40525 |    619 (0.01528) |  39893 |      13 |   10076.70 |    9667.11 |     1.80 |    409.59 |  95.935
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17591 |    421 (0.02394) |  17162 |       8 |    5777.14 |    6004.03 |    15.00 |   -226.88 | 103.927
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25306 |    804 (0.03178) |  24498 |       4 |    6531.74 |    6117.05 |     9.24 |    414.69 |  93.651
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    18066 |    839 (0.04646) |  17219 |       8 |    7845.28 |    9149.54 |    24.99 |  -1304.25 | 116.625
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    18031 |   1118 (0.06202) |  16909 |       4 |    5210.19 |    4752.06 |    31.20 |    458.13 |  91.207
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    24194 |   2285 (0.09452) |  21890 |      19 |   11402.53 |   11708.64 |     7.01 |   -306.11 | 102.685
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    98050 |  12071 (0.12314) |  85955 |      24 |   13657.08 |   12183.08 |     0.00 |   1474.00 |  89.207
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24342 |   4538 (0.18656) |  19787 |      17 |    9902.79 |   10176.29 |    14.50 |   -273.49 | 102.762
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   111218 |  27150 (0.24417) |  84042 |      26 |   68468.99 |   67420.55 |   566.79 |   1048.43 |  98.469
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    79017 |  29052 (0.36790) |  49916 |      49 |   56750.40 |   57315.03 |   212.64 |   -564.62 | 100.995
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   644517 | 314828 (0.48882) | 329228 |     461 |  378118.39 |  374253.48 |  2923.41 |   3864.90 |  98.978
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   235837 | 117626 (0.49917) | 118019 |     192 |  224011.33 |  221338.24 |  1709.77 |   2673.09 |  98.807
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   171457 | 126173 (0.73623) |  45203 |      81 |  167564.12 |  165494.31 |   704.58 |   2069.80 |  98.765
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17487 |  13905 (0.79575) |   3569 |      13 |   28492.35 |   28514.57 |  1187.00 |    -22.21 | 100.078
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16318 |  13971 (0.85738) |   2324 |      23 |   27420.02 |   27376.00 |   400.00 |     44.01 |  99.839
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     8219 |   7528 (0.91671) |    684 |       7 |   21178.55 |   21145.58 |     0.00 |     32.97 |  99.844
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8316 |   8005 (0.98004) |    163 |     148 |   17936.51 |   17656.47 |   239.21 |    280.04 |  98.439
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1611628 | 654218           | 955739 |    1671 |  399638.38 |  391839.38 |   157.73 |   7799.00 |  98.048
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    53518 |  26948           |  26350 |     220 |  669572.33 |  666214.66 |  8084.50 |   3357.66 |  99.499
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1665146 | 681166           | 982089 |    1891 | 1069210.71 | 1058054.05 |  8242.23 |  11156.66 |  98.957
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11156.66353009 BTC (1.043%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         858.79807500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10297.86545509 BTC (0.963%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5617320  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3090200  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2367.4  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1263.1  (53.4%)

[jamesg]

'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... 

Holy $h!t! That is one big turn around. 

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Nov-02 06:37pm (up to block 206204)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    33452 |      0 (0.00000) |  32991 |     461 |     233.44 |       0.01 |    37.17 |    233.42 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2155 |      0 (0.00000) |   2069 |      86 |      32.36 |       0.00 |    10.45 |     32.36 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3366 |      0 (0.00000) |   3324 |      42 |      45.00 |       0.03 |     5.65 |     44.96 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3992 |      2 (0.00051) |   3946 |      44 |      74.94 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     58.86 |  21.452
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5536 |      1 (0.00018) |   5496 |      39 |     164.62 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    160.32 |   2.613
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7107 |      3 (0.00042) |   7092 |      12 |     473.28 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    169.88 |  64.105
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9000 |      8 (0.00089) |   8968 |      24 |     746.74 |     124.63 |    55.64 |    622.11 |  16.690
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    11050 |     19 (0.00173) |  10974 |      57 |    1669.92 |    1274.84 |    48.25 |    395.08 |  76.341
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12632 |     56 (0.00444) |  12559 |      17 |    1860.12 |    2624.47 |    13.12 |   -764.35 | 141.091
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    19098 |    144 (0.00754) |  18942 |      12 |    3573.33 |    3434.17 |     9.35 |    139.16 |  96.106
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    40946 |    624 (0.01524) |  40309 |      13 |   10116.05 |    9682.56 |     1.80 |    433.48 |  95.715
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17594 |    421 (0.02394) |  17165 |       8 |    5777.15 |    6004.03 |    15.00 |   -226.87 | 103.927
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25322 |    804 (0.03176) |  24514 |       4 |    6532.75 |    6117.05 |     9.24 |    415.70 |  93.637
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    18078 |    839 (0.04643) |  17231 |       8 |    7856.97 |    9149.60 |    24.99 |  -1292.62 | 116.452
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    18049 |   1119 (0.06201) |  16926 |       4 |    5210.85 |    4752.15 |    31.20 |    458.70 |  91.197
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    24485 |   2317 (0.09471) |  22148 |      20 |   11455.38 |   11721.04 |     7.01 |   -265.66 | 102.319
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    98805 |  12160 (0.12310) |  86621 |      24 |   14395.56 |   12798.09 |     0.00 |   1597.46 |  88.903
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24397 |   4546 (0.18646) |  19834 |      17 |    9917.27 |   10178.99 |    14.50 |   -261.71 | 102.639
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   112431 |  27442 (0.24414) |  84963 |      26 |   68992.38 |   67913.25 |   566.79 |   1079.13 |  98.436
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    79913 |  29389 (0.36799) |  50475 |      49 |   58958.00 |   59654.01 |   212.64 |   -696.01 | 101.181
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   645435 | 315286 (0.48884) | 329687 |     462 |  378428.46 |  374554.40 |  2923.41 |   3874.05 |  98.976
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   239363 | 119381 (0.49915) | 119789 |     193 |  230422.39 |  226445.60 |  1709.77 |   3976.79 |  98.274
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   172380 | 126844 (0.73619) |  45455 |      81 |  168154.25 |  166063.07 |   704.58 |   2091.18 |  98.756
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17602 |  13988 (0.79527) |   3601 |      13 |   28777.29 |   28762.44 |  1187.00 |     14.85 |  99.948
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16412 |  14054 (0.85753) |   2335 |      23 |   27599.87 |   27567.24 |   400.00 |     32.62 |  99.882
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     8596 |   7886 (0.91815) |    703 |       7 |   22142.70 |   22147.80 |     0.00 |     -5.09 | 100.023
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8339 |   8026 (0.98010) |    163 |     150 |   17946.45 |   17666.44 |   239.21 |    280.00 |  98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1621508 | 658183           | 961649 |    1676 |  402499.43 |  394485.79 |   157.73 |   8013.63 |  98.009
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    54027 |  27176           |  26631 |     220 |  679058.25 |  674474.02 |  8084.50 |   4584.23 |  99.325
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1675535 | 685359           | 988280 |    1896 | 1081557.68 | 1068959.81 |  8242.23 |  12597.87 |  98.835
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12597.87359525 BTC (1.165%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         869.22267500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11728.65092025 BTC (1.084%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5652371  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3109467  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2382.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1271.2  (53.4%)

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Nov-03 11:36am (up to block 206304)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    34084 |      0 (0.00000) |  33623 |     461 |     234.74 |       0.01 |    37.17 |    234.72 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2159 |      0 (0.00000) |   2073 |      86 |      32.47 |       0.00 |    10.45 |     32.47 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3375 |      0 (0.00000) |   3333 |      42 |      45.13 |       0.03 |     5.65 |     45.09 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     3997 |      2 (0.00051) |   3951 |      44 |      74.97 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     58.89 |  21.445
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5539 |      1 (0.00018) |   5499 |      39 |     164.63 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    160.33 |   2.613
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7113 |      3 (0.00042) |   7098 |      12 |     473.41 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    170.01 |  64.088
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9008 |      8 (0.00089) |   8976 |      24 |     746.86 |     124.63 |    55.64 |    622.23 |  16.688
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    11069 |     19 (0.00173) |  10993 |      57 |    1670.23 |    1274.84 |    48.25 |    395.39 |  76.327
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12653 |     57 (0.00451) |  12579 |      17 |    1861.54 |    2624.97 |    13.12 |   -763.43 | 141.011
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    19142 |    145 (0.00758) |  18985 |      12 |    3574.26 |    3434.41 |     9.35 |    139.84 |  96.087
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    41424 |    635 (0.01533) |  40776 |      13 |   10165.27 |    9748.42 |     1.80 |    416.85 |  95.899
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17608 |    422 (0.02398) |  17178 |       8 |    5780.80 |    6004.17 |    15.00 |   -223.36 | 103.864
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25327 |    806 (0.03183) |  24517 |       4 |    6533.16 |    6117.18 |     9.24 |    415.98 |  93.633
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    18088 |    840 (0.04646) |  17240 |       8 |    7862.01 |    9149.71 |    24.99 |  -1287.69 | 116.379
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    18091 |   1122 (0.06203) |  16965 |       4 |    5216.69 |    4768.29 |    31.20 |    448.39 |  91.405
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    24528 |   2325 (0.09487) |  22183 |      20 |   11463.84 |   11733.31 |     7.01 |   -269.46 | 102.351
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    98972 |  12177 (0.12306) |  86771 |      24 |   14432.22 |   12849.31 |     0.00 |   1582.91 |  89.032
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24441 |   4557 (0.18658) |  19867 |      17 |    9929.17 |   10192.73 |    14.50 |   -263.56 | 102.654
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   112702 |  27496 (0.24403) |  85180 |      26 |   69093.72 |   67985.85 |   566.79 |   1107.87 |  98.397
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    80169 |  29484 (0.36800) |  50635 |      50 |   59232.02 |   59842.46 |   212.64 |   -610.43 | 101.031
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   645878 | 315496 (0.48883) | 329919 |     463 |  378639.60 |  374658.17 |  2923.41 |   3981.43 |  98.948
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   240960 | 120167 (0.49910) | 120600 |     193 |  231488.39 |  227736.60 |  1709.77 |   3751.78 |  98.379
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   172911 | 127223 (0.73612) |  45607 |      81 |  169149.08 |  167252.42 |   704.58 |   1896.65 |  98.879
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17635 |  14010 (0.79503) |   3612 |      13 |   28793.72 |   28778.25 |  1187.00 |     15.47 |  99.946
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16466 |  14098 (0.85739) |   2345 |      23 |   27858.00 |   27860.31 |   400.00 |     -2.30 | 100.008
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     8668 |   7949 (0.91779) |    712 |       7 |   22282.08 |   22272.89 |     0.00 |      9.19 |  99.959
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8345 |   8032 (0.98011) |    163 |     150 |   17949.37 |   17669.37 |   239.21 |    279.99 |  98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1626230 | 659851           | 964701 |    1678 |  403375.90 |  395340.12 |   157.73 |   8035.77 |  98.008
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    54122 |  27223           |  26679 |     220 |  681371.61 |  677062.09 |  8084.50 |   4309.51 |  99.368
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1680352 | 687074           | 991380 |    1898 | 1084747.51 | 1072402.21 |  8242.24 |  12345.29 |  98.862
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         874.04977500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11471.24435971 BTC (1.058%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5669272  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3118057  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2390.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1274.7  (53.3%)

[Come-from-Beyond]

SD Profit before fees:      12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)

Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence?  

[dooglus]

SD Profit before fees:      12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)

Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence?  

Given that we're bouncing around between 7500 and 12500, there's 5000 different integer values it can be.  So about 5000-to-1 against?

But you'd probably be equally amazed if it was exactly 12000, or 12121, or 11111, or 9999, etc.  So in that sense it's less amazing.

And without further ado:

Results: 2012-Nov-04 08:59am (up to block 206455)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    34691 |      0 (0.00000) |  34229 |     462 |     235.51 |       0.01 |    37.27 |    235.49 |   0.008
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2164 |      0 (0.00000) |   2078 |      86 |      32.59 |       0.00 |    10.45 |     32.59 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     3388 |      0 (0.00000) |   3346 |      42 |      45.63 |       0.03 |     5.65 |     45.59 |   0.085
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     4002 |      2 (0.00051) |   3956 |      44 |      75.02 |      16.07 |     5.65 |     58.95 |  21.428
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     5542 |      1 (0.00018) |   5502 |      39 |     164.82 |       4.30 |     8.40 |    160.52 |   2.610
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7126 |      3 (0.00042) |   7111 |      12 |     473.52 |     303.40 |     1.29 |    170.12 |  64.073
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     9022 |      8 (0.00089) |   8990 |      24 |     750.11 |     124.64 |    55.64 |    625.46 |  16.617
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    11089 |     20 (0.00181) |  11012 |      57 |    1670.45 |    1277.33 |    48.25 |    393.11 |  76.467
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    12660 |     57 (0.00451) |  12586 |      17 |    1861.59 |    2624.97 |    13.12 |   -763.38 | 141.007
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    19175 |    147 (0.00767) |  19016 |      12 |    3574.74 |    3435.66 |     9.35 |    139.07 |  96.109
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    42459 |    655 (0.01543) |  41791 |      13 |   10385.82 |   10058.65 |     1.80 |    327.16 |  96.850
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    17614 |    423 (0.02403) |  17183 |       8 |    5781.15 |    6016.96 |    15.00 |   -235.81 | 104.079
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    25337 |    806 (0.03182) |  24527 |       4 |    6533.35 |    6117.18 |     9.24 |    416.17 |  93.630
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    18093 |    840 (0.04645) |  17245 |       8 |    7863.03 |    9149.71 |    24.99 |  -1286.67 | 116.364
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    18112 |   1123 (0.06202) |  16985 |       4 |    5217.45 |    4768.30 |    31.20 |    449.14 |  91.391
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    24616 |   2329 (0.09469) |  22267 |      20 |   11487.98 |   11733.97 |     7.01 |   -245.99 | 102.141
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    99216 |  12209 (0.12308) |  86983 |      24 |   14460.32 |   12874.54 |     0.00 |   1585.77 |  89.034
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    24479 |   4564 (0.18658) |  19898 |      17 |    9932.70 |   10193.12 |    14.50 |   -260.42 | 102.622
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   113211 |  27642 (0.24422) |  85543 |      26 |   69563.33 |   68188.38 |   566.79 |   1374.94 |  98.023
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    80470 |  29594 (0.36799) |  50826 |      50 |   59415.28 |   60102.10 |   212.64 |   -686.82 | 101.156
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   646462 | 315764 (0.48880) | 330235 |     463 |  379025.84 |  374900.53 |  2923.41 |   4125.31 |  98.912
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   242107 | 120740 (0.49910) | 121174 |     193 |  231883.68 |  228051.89 |  1709.77 |   3831.79 |  98.348
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   173652 | 127780 (0.73619) |  45790 |      82 |  169504.89 |  167671.12 |   704.58 |   1833.76 |  98.918
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    17795 |  14141 (0.79524) |   3641 |      13 |   28854.34 |   28846.46 |  1187.00 |      7.87 |  99.973
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    16615 |  14219 (0.85703) |   2372 |      24 |   28230.34 |   28205.68 |   400.00 |     24.66 |  99.913
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     8881 |   8142 (0.91751) |    732 |       7 |   22936.72 |   22971.12 |     0.00 |    -34.40 | 100.150
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     8404 |   8090 (0.98013) |    164 |     150 |   17953.13 |   17673.12 |   239.21 |    280.01 |  98.440
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1632142 | 662009           | 968452 |    1681 |  404369.21 |  396442.72 |   157.83 |   7926.48 |  98.040
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    54240 |  27290           |  26730 |     220 |  683544.25 |  678866.69 |  8084.50 |   4677.56 |  99.316
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1686382 | 689299           | 995182 |    1901 | 1087913.46 | 1075309.41 |  8242.34 |  12604.05 |  98.841
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12604.05221580 BTC (1.159%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         880.08697500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11723.96524080 BTC (1.078%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  5689945  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 3128577  (55.0%)
Blockchain MB:  2399.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1279.1  (53.3%)

[JWU42]

That was (is) quite a reversal...

[Herbert]

Doesn't this reversal make it even more suspicious? I mean that steep rise is equally unexpected like the steep loss before. What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?

[jamesg]

What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?

I think a better question could be what is the probability the drop happened directly before a dividend payment...