thoughtfan
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February 21, 2013, 07:31:26 AM |
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There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?
I was just wondering the same myself and came here to see if there was any news that could explain the drop in the last few days. Seeing as it doesn't look as if there's anything substantive I'll stick with my stock holding for the time being. I have another couple of possibilities for the low price to throw into the mix which are to do with the increase in the purchace price of Bitcoin relative to fiat. I shouldn't have been but I was surprised the other day when they were trading higher when I calculated what the fiat value of my holding. Whilst relative to my Bitcoin holding the value of shares were the same as they were a few weeks back I would not have gone out to buy that many GBP's worth of shares of anything! Maybe others in a similar position (more than likely including some of those deciding to short Bitcoin at current prices) are reducing their exposure by reducing their positions? Then there are reasons other than the retired whale, some of which I've seen before as possible explanations for any reduction in S.DICE profit growth for instance: - Less directly related to the BTC/USD ratio is even though the numbers of Bitcoin users are increasing somewhat in relation to the increase in price, the amount they're getting for their fiat is less than previous newcomers so they have fewer BTC to throw around as earlier adopters.
- We may have got to the stage where more early or recent adopters are beginning to believe in the exponential growth potential of BTC and may therefore be less inclined to treat it like monopoly money and spend less?
- Maybe long-term players through repeated play and experimentation with 'sophisitcated' staking plans etc. are by their losses beginning to understand probabilities better* and may decide to play occasionally for fun rather than trying to play as 'serious' means of making money?
* btw if this was the primary reason for the amount played per person going down over time I'd be happy to live with the reduced return on my S.Dice investment to have contributed to a more numerate Bitcoiner population from which I believe we'd all benefit in the longer term.
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StarenseN
Legendary
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Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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February 21, 2013, 11:12:52 AM |
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There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?
There used to be a player who lost thousands of dollars to satoshidice every day. He hasn't played since Feb 5th. He was single-handedly responsible for a large percentage of the site's profits, and his disappearance will have a significant effect on future dividends. The price dropped very easily with some thousand of shares sold. But what we had also yesterday is that massive buy. MPEx @MPEx1 1`000`000 S.DICE @ 0.00639000BTC = 6`390.00000000BTC. 83 #trade #bitcoin #btc #stocks So some floating shares below 0.006 are not revelant to me.
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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February 21, 2013, 09:47:32 PM |
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Total of 17 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Feb-21 01:34pm (up to block 222429)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 86214 | 0 (0.00000) | 84817 | 1397 | 960.94 | 0.02 | 116.37 | 960.92 | 0.002 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 4378 | 0 (0.00000) | 3868 | 510 | 74.01 | 0.01 | 18.54 | 74.00 | 0.020 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6710 | 1 (0.00016) | 6282 | 427 | 101.27 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -58.71 | 157.979 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 9378 | 4 (0.00045) | 8942 | 432 | 154.87 | 255.99 | 10.04 | -101.11 | 165.293 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11865 | 1 (0.00009) | 11438 | 426 | 401.60 | 4.77 | 22.05 | 396.82 | 1.190 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 14099 | 5 (0.00036) | 13697 | 397 | 797.74 | 733.71 | 1.37 | 64.03 | 91.973 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 16447 | 16 (0.00100) | 15995 | 436 | 1215.08 | 341.70 | 55.75 | 873.38 | 28.122 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17895 | 33 (0.00189) | 17421 | 441 | 2221.44 | 1422.51 | 48.33 | 798.93 | 64.036 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 22829 | 102 (0.00454) | 22346 | 381 | 4432.58 | 7349.03 | 13.18 | -2916.45 | 165.796 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 31078 | 245 (0.00806) | 30141 | 692 | 5595.15 | 5617.84 | 10.00 | -22.68 | 100.405 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 103273 | 1593 (0.01550) | 101213 | 467 | 29288.71 | 25161.04 | 1.99 | 4127.66 | 85.907 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 22426 | 528 (0.02392) | 21544 | 354 | 7515.34 | 8062.52 | 15.08 | -547.17 | 107.281 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 62486 | 1939 (0.03123) | 60157 | 390 | 30099.05 | 26993.26 | 9.34 | 3105.78 | 89.681 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24678 | 1109 (0.04572) | 23146 | 423 | 9030.63 | 9919.10 | 25.14 | -888.46 | 109.838 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30372 | 1844 (0.06148) | 28149 | 379 | 7441.84 | 7290.96 | 31.31 | 150.88 | 97.972 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 39529 | 3643 (0.09314) | 35471 | 415 | 15643.87 | 17453.47 | 7.21 | -1809.60 | 111.568 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 161384 | 19761 (0.12281) | 141152 | 471 | 81413.57 | 80842.04 | 100.34 | 571.53 | 99.298 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 77177 | 14150 (0.18455) | 62521 | 506 | 160026.69 | 162583.95 | 3314.81 | -2557.25 | 101.598 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 209101 | 50861 (0.24385) | 157718 | 522 | 351893.01 | 337762.78 | 2056.29 | 14130.23 | 95.985 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 208889 | 76783 (0.36855) | 131553 | 553 | 565225.62 | 556994.70 | 1013.12 | 8230.91 | 98.544 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1027223 | 500645 (0.48808) | 525091 | 1487 | 829913.20 | 811760.33 | 2924.39 | 18152.86 | 97.813 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 513048 | 255904 (0.49973) | 256181 | 963 | 626783.98 | 612930.61 | 5720.69 | 13853.36 | 97.790 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 301460 | 221278 (0.73541) | 79613 | 569 | 286083.64 | 279493.23 | 5454.99 | 6590.41 | 97.696 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 66707 | 52619 (0.79421) | 13634 | 454 | 58365.79 | 57051.34 | 1187.29 | 1314.45 | 97.748 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 50336 | 42678 (0.85647) | 7152 | 506 | 68978.06 | 68515.24 | 400.37 | 462.82 | 99.329 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 76364 | 69553 (0.91661) | 6328 | 483 | 65793.94 | 65103.96 | 0.30 | 689.98 | 98.951 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 14878 | 13717 (0.98014) | 278 | 883 | 23255.45 | 22854.81 | 239.86 | 400.63 | 98.277 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3103970 | 1279374 | 1809521 | 15075 | 703696.45 | 689626.01 | 247.08 | 14070.43 | 98.000 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 106254 | 49638 | 56327 | 289 | 2529010.75 | 2477033.01 | 22562.70 | 51977.73 | 97.945 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3210224 | 1329012 | 1865848 | 15364 | 3232707.20 | 3166659.03 | 22809.78 | 66048.17 | 97.957 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 66048.17074030 BTC (2.043%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2410.03207500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 63638.13866530 BTC (1.969%) Pending Liabilities: -0.96752899 BTC Final SD Profit: 63639.10619429 BTC (1.969%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 10274938 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5913580 (57.6%) Blockchain MB: 4394.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 2428.5 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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February 22, 2013, 09:20:19 PM |
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Total of 112 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Feb-22 01:18pm (up to block 222595)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 86758 | 0 (0.00000) | 85356 | 1402 | 973.39 | 0.02 | 117.42 | 973.37 | 0.002 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 4400 | 0 (0.00000) | 3890 | 510 | 74.38 | 0.01 | 18.54 | 74.37 | 0.020 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6717 | 1 (0.00016) | 6287 | 429 | 101.41 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -58.57 | 157.761 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 9395 | 4 (0.00045) | 8959 | 432 | 155.28 | 255.99 | 10.04 | -100.70 | 164.856 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11883 | 1 (0.00009) | 11456 | 426 | 401.80 | 4.77 | 22.05 | 397.02 | 1.189 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 14110 | 5 (0.00036) | 13707 | 398 | 797.94 | 733.71 | 1.38 | 64.23 | 91.950 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 16492 | 16 (0.00100) | 16040 | 436 | 1216.25 | 341.70 | 55.75 | 874.54 | 28.095 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17930 | 33 (0.00189) | 17456 | 441 | 2221.79 | 1422.51 | 48.33 | 799.28 | 64.025 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 22863 | 102 (0.00454) | 22380 | 381 | 4432.92 | 7349.03 | 13.18 | -2916.11 | 165.783 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 31300 | 246 (0.00804) | 30362 | 692 | 5599.00 | 5619.09 | 10.00 | -20.09 | 100.359 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 104187 | 1606 (0.01548) | 102114 | 467 | 29379.06 | 25175.43 | 1.99 | 4203.63 | 85.692 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 22582 | 531 (0.02389) | 21697 | 354 | 7516.92 | 8063.80 | 15.08 | -546.88 | 107.275 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 63246 | 1967 (0.03129) | 60889 | 390 | 30270.10 | 27396.00 | 9.34 | 2874.09 | 90.505 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24986 | 1129 (0.04597) | 23433 | 424 | 9037.16 | 9924.03 | 25.14 | -886.87 | 109.814 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30649 | 1862 (0.06151) | 28408 | 379 | 7445.04 | 7293.85 | 31.31 | 151.19 | 97.969 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 40158 | 3703 (0.09318) | 36039 | 416 | 15680.32 | 17479.67 | 7.21 | -1799.34 | 111.475 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 162129 | 19847 (0.12277) | 141810 | 472 | 83045.73 | 82797.52 | 100.34 | 248.20 | 99.701 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 78785 | 14427 (0.18431) | 63849 | 509 | 161900.66 | 163412.37 | 3314.81 | -1511.71 | 100.934 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 210645 | 51213 (0.24373) | 158910 | 522 | 353944.42 | 339302.37 | 2056.29 | 14642.04 | 95.863 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 210453 | 77366 (0.36859) | 132533 | 554 | 567210.53 | 558632.58 | 1013.13 | 8577.94 | 98.488 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1032365 | 503150 (0.48808) | 527725 | 1490 | 834721.50 | 816389.53 | 2924.40 | 18331.96 | 97.804 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 517125 | 257934 (0.49972) | 258228 | 963 | 629117.22 | 615195.39 | 5720.69 | 13921.82 | 97.787 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 303366 | 222693 (0.73546) | 80100 | 573 | 286758.47 | 279994.14 | 5455.01 | 6764.33 | 97.641 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 66853 | 52735 (0.79421) | 13664 | 454 | 58434.79 | 57128.17 | 1187.29 | 1306.61 | 97.764 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 50838 | 43104 (0.85643) | 7226 | 508 | 69300.25 | 68804.96 | 400.38 | 495.28 | 99.285 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 77262 | 70371 (0.91655) | 6407 | 484 | 66060.38 | 65363.97 | 0.31 | 696.41 | 98.946 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 14962 | 13793 (0.98024) | 278 | 891 | 23338.18 | 22937.87 | 239.87 | 400.31 | 98.285 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3125470 | 1287943 | 1822419 | 15108 | 706838.03 | 692587.62 | 248.21 | 14250.40 | 97.984 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 106969 | 49896 | 56784 | 289 | 2542296.99 | 2488590.99 | 22562.70 | 53706.00 | 97.888 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3232439 | 1337839 | 1879203 | 15397 | 3249135.03 | 3181178.62 | 22810.91 | 67956.41 | 97.908 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 67956.41237594 BTC (2.092%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2432.32377500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 65524.08860094 BTC (2.017%) Pending Liabilities: -112.92856236 BTC Final SD Profit: 65637.01716330 BTC (2.020%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 10334519 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5954150 (57.6%) Blockchain MB: 4420.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 2445.1 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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February 23, 2013, 05:55:11 PM Last edit: February 23, 2013, 06:44:36 PM by dooglus |
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Is there a chart or summary somewhere of the raw number of satoshidice transactions over time? Not BTC volume but simply bets regardless of size.
There will be soon... Edit: ... or maybe not so soon. Re-scanning the whole blockchain to add a new type of graph turns out to be really slow, and now I have to go out for a bit. Today's charts will be delayed, but I'll get to them when I'm back home.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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February 24, 2013, 12:35:37 AM |
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Here's today's update, including the chart showing raw number of bets. It's pretty much a straight line, oddly enough. Total of 298 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Feb-23 04:28pm (up to block 222731)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 87131 | 0 (0.00000) | 85727 | 1404 | 977.97 | 0.02 | 117.42 | 977.95 | 0.002 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 4415 | 0 (0.00000) | 3905 | 510 | 74.56 | 0.01 | 18.54 | 74.54 | 0.019 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6735 | 1 (0.00016) | 6304 | 430 | 101.59 | 159.98 | 11.48 | -58.39 | 157.481 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 9406 | 4 (0.00045) | 8970 | 432 | 155.45 | 255.99 | 10.04 | -100.53 | 164.675 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11891 | 1 (0.00009) | 11464 | 426 | 401.92 | 4.77 | 22.05 | 397.14 | 1.189 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 14118 | 5 (0.00036) | 13715 | 398 | 798.23 | 733.71 | 1.38 | 64.51 | 91.918 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 16517 | 16 (0.00099) | 16065 | 436 | 1216.62 | 341.70 | 55.75 | 874.91 | 28.087 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17958 | 33 (0.00188) | 17484 | 441 | 2222.17 | 1422.51 | 48.33 | 799.66 | 64.014 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 22927 | 102 (0.00452) | 22444 | 381 | 4436.57 | 7349.04 | 13.18 | -2912.46 | 165.647 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 31372 | 247 (0.00805) | 30432 | 693 | 5610.29 | 5620.39 | 10.01 | -10.10 | 100.180 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 104822 | 1615 (0.01548) | 102740 | 467 | 29587.67 | 25189.17 | 1.99 | 4398.50 | 85.134 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 22699 | 534 (0.02390) | 21811 | 354 | 7518.36 | 8065.09 | 15.08 | -546.73 | 107.272 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 63887 | 1985 (0.03126) | 61512 | 390 | 30839.70 | 27568.54 | 9.34 | 3271.15 | 89.393 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 25231 | 1140 (0.04595) | 23667 | 424 | 9045.21 | 9928.11 | 25.14 | -882.89 | 109.761 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30897 | 1873 (0.06137) | 28645 | 379 | 7447.88 | 7295.79 | 31.31 | 152.09 | 97.958 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 40765 | 3755 (0.09307) | 36593 | 417 | 15717.51 | 17493.98 | 7.21 | -1776.47 | 111.303 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 163054 | 19971 (0.12284) | 142610 | 473 | 83889.80 | 83720.39 | 100.35 | 169.41 | 99.798 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 79539 | 14556 (0.18419) | 64473 | 510 | 162778.09 | 164589.72 | 3314.82 | -1811.63 | 101.113 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 211975 | 51538 (0.24373) | 159913 | 524 | 354982.44 | 340408.15 | 2056.30 | 14574.28 | 95.894 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 211427 | 77714 (0.36854) | 133157 | 556 | 568400.21 | 559969.64 | 1013.13 | 8430.57 | 98.517 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1036746 | 505271 (0.48807) | 529982 | 1493 | 837627.12 | 819219.26 | 2924.42 | 18407.85 | 97.802 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 520446 | 259594 (0.49972) | 259882 | 970 | 631396.54 | 617523.09 | 5720.70 | 13873.45 | 97.803 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 304576 | 223569 (0.73542) | 80432 | 575 | 287739.18 | 280828.09 | 5455.02 | 6911.08 | 97.598 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 67242 | 53055 (0.79439) | 13732 | 455 | 58614.67 | 57321.36 | 1187.29 | 1293.31 | 97.794 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 51501 | 43669 (0.85642) | 7321 | 511 | 71375.53 | 70856.42 | 400.39 | 519.10 | 99.273 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 78119 | 71142 (0.91641) | 6489 | 488 | 66410.12 | 65710.53 | 0.33 | 699.59 | 98.947 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 15049 | 13872 (0.98008) | 282 | 895 | 23451.43 | 23045.38 | 239.88 | 406.05 | 98.269 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3142799 | 1295088 | 1832568 | 15143 | 710185.00 | 695791.64 | 248.31 | 14393.36 | 97.973 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 107646 | 50174 | 57183 | 289 | 2552631.95 | 2498829.32 | 22562.70 | 53802.62 | 97.892 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3250445 | 1345262 | 1889751 | 15432 | 3262816.96 | 3194620.96 | 22811.01 | 68195.99 | 97.910 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 68195.99232898 BTC (2.090%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2450.37777500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 65745.61455398 BTC (2.015%) Pending Liabilities: -37.37074704 BTC Final SD Profit: 65782.98530102 BTC (2.016%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 10383530 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5987343 (57.7%) Blockchain MB: 4442.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 2458.9 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Spekulatius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
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February 24, 2013, 01:38:52 AM |
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I appreciate your doing the number of bets analysis.
I'm surprised it's a straight line like that. I would have figured it would have leveled off after the novelty wore off.
Come to think of it, it kind of looks like the bet rate has accelerated if anything.
+1 thanks!
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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February 24, 2013, 02:12:25 AM |
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I appreciate your doing the number of bets analysis.
I'm surprised it's a straight line like that. I would have figured it would have leveled off after the novelty wore off.
Come to think of it, it kind of looks like the bet rate has accelerated if anything.
I guess the increasing interest in bitcoin as a whole outweighs the effect of old players getting bored of the game.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Bugpowder
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February 24, 2013, 01:04:41 PM |
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I found this transfer from one of the "new whale" addresses. Looks like this coin may be passed around between the addresses. 19w1eXEHM973TQfoXsEG2tzGybMSi8kc1D 1,111 BTC 13iH15i8CesFkNo64L9T58zXgSSngLu8kq 7,422 BTC 19CNK8uvq2Kv9KrDmm3A6nk1S3Bixw5HWz 589 BTC 1PLVVXQBZtjy2uBSXR1kbRGLK3dTX3fRXR 1,151 BTC 1N1banjrhLH5pje6ec4xwbRY57QiQPztde 3,321 BTC 12e8YvJQnpNV7qEgrFWqBqAMmisPKx4LzM 2,144 BTC 18L1bftQXum9bGHmc8UVnVE5ndYuZrYYaK 1,574 BTC 1BaMK7jsCiMMkdNNjpuTE4JMSvvsPzKC85 456 BTC 18L3npzAQ8c6JxwHfMmXksDXxCsrdM3Ytc 758 BTC 1Gte5WLQ8oFTYVbzakQgcYQf1hcF9S8Seb 1,456 BTC 12nnoy2G6QeVWMtDnQkhkhV7efPiSfEwQN 1,111 BTC 1JGGhNXaFJhHc6fDtd6PNMRYT5sxc6Fx1v 1,145 BTC 1VvxJdSapervZTWsAgZysSnF2uozvpLX2 755 BTC 1DCFhkCUyM9YfL4aNJQVkQAr9D1YmmDWu6 115 BTC 18HnLehhNwNUu74booJdBYUvWDpTFSnYx7 214 BTC 1VvxJdSapervZTWsAgZysSnF2uozvpLX2 0.17479994 BTC This address has over 10,000 BTC from this network, is associated with a 'new whale' address but hasn't started betting... YET. http://blockchain.info/address/17dmDKohWioPHVZT2uzXqwECLYpfCfm2utnew whale address http://blockchain.info/address/12Gsb2qQA8ycGWchDxZ3XwbDcT5jUUzTwX
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Ploo
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February 24, 2013, 03:54:31 PM |
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Is there anywhere I can view SD profit for the month in a numerical form without having to read off a graph?
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romerun
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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February 24, 2013, 03:57:48 PM |
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and the forecast of dividend per share
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FTWbitcoinFTW
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February 24, 2013, 04:04:33 PM Last edit: February 24, 2013, 05:01:45 PM by FTWbitcoinFTW |
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* 1) NO
* 2) NO
But both can be calculated very simply...
1) Final SD profit X date minus Final SD profit january 31
2) Repeats and divides by 10M EDIT : 100M
* Not that I know
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Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. it has lots of buttery taste..
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romerun
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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February 24, 2013, 04:25:20 PM |
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So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
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Ploo
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February 24, 2013, 04:28:56 PM |
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So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are.
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FTWbitcoinFTW
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February 24, 2013, 05:03:03 PM |
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Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are. yep, my bad !
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Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. it has lots of buttery taste..
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scrybe
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February 24, 2013, 05:05:29 PM |
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So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
Updated with better numbers... FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)
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"...as simple as possible, but no simpler" -AE BTC/TRC/FRC: 1ScrybeSNcjqgpPeYNgvdxANArqoC6i5u Ripple:rf9gutfmGB8CH39W2PCeRbLWMKRauYyVfx LTC:LadmiD6tXq7gFZvMibhFUZegUHKXgbu1Gb
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Ploo
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February 24, 2013, 05:09:49 PM |
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So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
Updated with better numbers... FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.) But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.
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thoughtfan
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February 24, 2013, 05:22:04 PM |
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So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.
Updated with better numbers... FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.) But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target. It is not surprising to me that we are lower, and would be even if it were a 31 day month, given that one player that accounted for such a high proportion of last month's profits disappeared off the map (sorry, I can't find the link to what that proportion was). I am content that growth in numbers of plays has not far off made up for loss of that large single profit source, especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.
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romerun
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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February 24, 2013, 05:27:30 PM |
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So, avg profit per day of this month is 549.70934802913043 which is a bit lower than Jan's 640.8198732316129
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