Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[thoughtfan]

There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?

I was just wondering the same myself and came here to see if there was any news that could explain the drop in the last few days.  Seeing as it doesn't look as if there's anything substantive I'll stick with my stock holding for the time being.

I have another couple of possibilities for the low price to throw into the mix which are to do with the increase in the purchace price of Bitcoin relative to fiat.  I shouldn't have been but I was surprised the other day when they were trading higher when I calculated what the fiat value of my holding.  Whilst relative to my Bitcoin holding the value of shares were the same as they were a few weeks back I would not have gone out to buy that many GBP's worth of shares of anything!  Maybe others in a similar position (more than likely including some of those deciding to short Bitcoin at current prices) are reducing their exposure by reducing their positions?

Then there are reasons other than the retired whale, some of which I've seen before as possible explanations for any reduction in S.DICE profit growth for instance:  

• Less directly related to the BTC/USD ratio is even though the numbers of Bitcoin users are increasing somewhat in relation to the increase in price, the amount they're getting for their fiat is less than previous newcomers so they have fewer BTC to throw around as earlier adopters.
• We may have got to the stage where more early or recent adopters are beginning to believe in the exponential growth potential of BTC and may therefore be less inclined to treat it like monopoly money and spend less?
• Maybe long-term players through repeated play and experimentation with 'sophisitcated' staking plans etc. are by their losses beginning to understand probabilities better* and may decide to play occasionally for fun rather than trying to play as 'serious' means of making money?
  

* btw if this was the primary reason for the amount played per person going down over time I'd be happy to live with the reduced return on my S.Dice investment to have contributed to a more numerate Bitcoiner population from which I believe we'd all benefit in the longer term.

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[StarenseN]

There's lots of cheap shares on mpex, any ideas why?

There used to be a player who lost thousands of dollars to satoshidice every day.  He hasn't played since Feb 5th.  He was single-handedly responsible for a large percentage of the site's profits, and his disappearance will have a significant effect on future dividends.

The price dropped very easily with some thousand of shares sold. 



But what we had also yesterday is that massive buy.

MPEx ‏@MPEx1
1`000`000 S.DICE @ 0.00639000BTC = 6`390.00000000BTC. 83 #trade #bitcoin #btc #stocks

So some floating shares below 0.006 are not revelant to me.

[dooglus]

Total of 17 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-21 01:34pm (up to block 222429)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    86214 |       0 (0.00000) |   84817 |    1397 |     960.94 |       0.02 |   116.37 |    960.92 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4378 |       0 (0.00000) |    3868 |     510 |      74.01 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.00 |   0.020
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6710 |       1 (0.00016) |    6282 |     427 |     101.27 |     159.98 |    11.47 |    -58.71 | 157.979
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9378 |       4 (0.00045) |    8942 |     432 |     154.87 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -101.11 | 165.293
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11865 |       1 (0.00009) |   11438 |     426 |     401.60 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    396.82 |   1.190
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14099 |       5 (0.00036) |   13697 |     397 |     797.74 |     733.71 |     1.37 |     64.03 |  91.973
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16447 |      16 (0.00100) |   15995 |     436 |    1215.08 |     341.70 |    55.75 |    873.38 |  28.122
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17895 |      33 (0.00189) |   17421 |     441 |    2221.44 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    798.93 |  64.036
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    22829 |     102 (0.00454) |   22346 |     381 |    4432.58 |    7349.03 |    13.18 |  -2916.45 | 165.796
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31078 |     245 (0.00806) |   30141 |     692 |    5595.15 |    5617.84 |    10.00 |    -22.68 | 100.405
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   103273 |    1593 (0.01550) |  101213 |     467 |   29288.71 |   25161.04 |     1.99 |   4127.66 |  85.907
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    22426 |     528 (0.02392) |   21544 |     354 |    7515.34 |    8062.52 |    15.08 |   -547.17 | 107.281
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    62486 |    1939 (0.03123) |   60157 |     390 |   30099.05 |   26993.26 |     9.34 |   3105.78 |  89.681
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24678 |    1109 (0.04572) |   23146 |     423 |    9030.63 |    9919.10 |    25.14 |   -888.46 | 109.838
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    30372 |    1844 (0.06148) |   28149 |     379 |    7441.84 |    7290.96 |    31.31 |    150.88 |  97.972
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    39529 |    3643 (0.09314) |   35471 |     415 |   15643.87 |   17453.47 |     7.21 |  -1809.60 | 111.568
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   161384 |   19761 (0.12281) |  141152 |     471 |   81413.57 |   80842.04 |   100.34 |    571.53 |  99.298
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    77177 |   14150 (0.18455) |   62521 |     506 |  160026.69 |  162583.95 |  3314.81 |  -2557.25 | 101.598
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   209101 |   50861 (0.24385) |  157718 |     522 |  351893.01 |  337762.78 |  2056.29 |  14130.23 |  95.985
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   208889 |   76783 (0.36855) |  131553 |     553 |  565225.62 |  556994.70 |  1013.12 |   8230.91 |  98.544
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1027223 |  500645 (0.48808) |  525091 |    1487 |  829913.20 |  811760.33 |  2924.39 |  18152.86 |  97.813
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   513048 |  255904 (0.49973) |  256181 |     963 |  626783.98 |  612930.61 |  5720.69 |  13853.36 |  97.790
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   301460 |  221278 (0.73541) |   79613 |     569 |  286083.64 |  279493.23 |  5454.99 |   6590.41 |  97.696
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    66707 |   52619 (0.79421) |   13634 |     454 |   58365.79 |   57051.34 |  1187.29 |   1314.45 |  97.748
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    50336 |   42678 (0.85647) |    7152 |     506 |   68978.06 |   68515.24 |   400.37 |    462.82 |  99.329
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    76364 |   69553 (0.91661) |    6328 |     483 |   65793.94 |   65103.96 |     0.30 |    689.98 |  98.951
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    14878 |   13717 (0.98014) |     278 |     883 |   23255.45 |   22854.81 |   239.86 |    400.63 |  98.277
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3103970 | 1279374           | 1809521 |   15075 |  703696.45 |  689626.01 |   247.08 |  14070.43 |  98.000
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   106254 |   49638           |   56327 |     289 | 2529010.75 | 2477033.01 | 22562.70 |  51977.73 |  97.945
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3210224 | 1329012           | 1865848 |   15364 | 3232707.20 | 3166659.03 | 22809.78 |  66048.17 |  97.957
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      66048.17074030 BTC (2.043%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2410.03207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       63638.13866530 BTC (1.969%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.96752899 BTC
Final SD Profit:            63639.10619429 BTC (1.969%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10274938  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5913580  (57.6%)
Blockchain MB:   4394.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2428.5  (55.3%)

[dooglus]

Total of 112 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-22 01:18pm (up to block 222595)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    86758 |       0 (0.00000) |   85356 |    1402 |     973.39 |       0.02 |   117.42 |    973.37 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4400 |       0 (0.00000) |    3890 |     510 |      74.38 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.37 |   0.020
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6717 |       1 (0.00016) |    6287 |     429 |     101.41 |     159.98 |    11.47 |    -58.57 | 157.761
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9395 |       4 (0.00045) |    8959 |     432 |     155.28 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -100.70 | 164.856
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11883 |       1 (0.00009) |   11456 |     426 |     401.80 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.02 |   1.189
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14110 |       5 (0.00036) |   13707 |     398 |     797.94 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     64.23 |  91.950
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16492 |      16 (0.00100) |   16040 |     436 |    1216.25 |     341.70 |    55.75 |    874.54 |  28.095
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17930 |      33 (0.00189) |   17456 |     441 |    2221.79 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    799.28 |  64.025
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    22863 |     102 (0.00454) |   22380 |     381 |    4432.92 |    7349.03 |    13.18 |  -2916.11 | 165.783
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31300 |     246 (0.00804) |   30362 |     692 |    5599.00 |    5619.09 |    10.00 |    -20.09 | 100.359
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   104187 |    1606 (0.01548) |  102114 |     467 |   29379.06 |   25175.43 |     1.99 |   4203.63 |  85.692
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    22582 |     531 (0.02389) |   21697 |     354 |    7516.92 |    8063.80 |    15.08 |   -546.88 | 107.275
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    63246 |    1967 (0.03129) |   60889 |     390 |   30270.10 |   27396.00 |     9.34 |   2874.09 |  90.505
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24986 |    1129 (0.04597) |   23433 |     424 |    9037.16 |    9924.03 |    25.14 |   -886.87 | 109.814
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    30649 |    1862 (0.06151) |   28408 |     379 |    7445.04 |    7293.85 |    31.31 |    151.19 |  97.969
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    40158 |    3703 (0.09318) |   36039 |     416 |   15680.32 |   17479.67 |     7.21 |  -1799.34 | 111.475
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   162129 |   19847 (0.12277) |  141810 |     472 |   83045.73 |   82797.52 |   100.34 |    248.20 |  99.701
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    78785 |   14427 (0.18431) |   63849 |     509 |  161900.66 |  163412.37 |  3314.81 |  -1511.71 | 100.934
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   210645 |   51213 (0.24373) |  158910 |     522 |  353944.42 |  339302.37 |  2056.29 |  14642.04 |  95.863
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   210453 |   77366 (0.36859) |  132533 |     554 |  567210.53 |  558632.58 |  1013.13 |   8577.94 |  98.488
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1032365 |  503150 (0.48808) |  527725 |    1490 |  834721.50 |  816389.53 |  2924.40 |  18331.96 |  97.804
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   517125 |  257934 (0.49972) |  258228 |     963 |  629117.22 |  615195.39 |  5720.69 |  13921.82 |  97.787
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   303366 |  222693 (0.73546) |   80100 |     573 |  286758.47 |  279994.14 |  5455.01 |   6764.33 |  97.641
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    66853 |   52735 (0.79421) |   13664 |     454 |   58434.79 |   57128.17 |  1187.29 |   1306.61 |  97.764
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    50838 |   43104 (0.85643) |    7226 |     508 |   69300.25 |   68804.96 |   400.38 |    495.28 |  99.285
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    77262 |   70371 (0.91655) |    6407 |     484 |   66060.38 |   65363.97 |     0.31 |    696.41 |  98.946
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    14962 |   13793 (0.98024) |     278 |     891 |   23338.18 |   22937.87 |   239.87 |    400.31 |  98.285
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3125470 | 1287943           | 1822419 |   15108 |  706838.03 |  692587.62 |   248.21 |  14250.40 |  97.984
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   106969 |   49896           |   56784 |     289 | 2542296.99 | 2488590.99 | 22562.70 |  53706.00 |  97.888
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3232439 | 1337839           | 1879203 |   15397 | 3249135.03 | 3181178.62 | 22810.91 |  67956.41 |  97.908
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      67956.41237594 BTC (2.092%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2432.32377500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65524.08860094 BTC (2.017%)
Pending Liabilities:         -112.92856236 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65637.01716330 BTC (2.020%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10334519  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5954150  (57.6%)
Blockchain MB:   4420.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2445.1  (55.3%)

[dooglus]

Is there a chart or summary somewhere of the raw number of satoshidice transactions over time?  Not BTC volume but simply bets regardless of size.

There will be soon...

Edit: ... or maybe not so soon.  Re-scanning the whole blockchain to add a new type of graph turns out to be really slow, and now I have to go out for a bit.  Today's charts will be delayed, but I'll get to them when I'm back home.

[Bugpowder]

Quite a bit of action from some new addresses.  Most interesting is

http://blockchain.info/address/12Gsb2qQA8ycGWchDxZ3XwbDcT5jUUzTwX

who got the coins from

http://blockchain.info/address/1BaMK7jsCiMMkdNNjpuTE4JMSvvsPzKC85

and

http://blockchain.info/address/18L3npzAQ8c6JxwHfMmXksDXxCsrdM3Ytc

About 5,000 BTC left between the set of addresses.  And still 3,000 BTC in the original whale addresses, though they have been shifted between members of the 8 addresses.

Large profits may continue for another month, or more...

[dooglus]

Here's today's update, including the chart showing raw number of bets.  It's pretty much a straight line, oddly enough.

Total of 298 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-23 04:28pm (up to block 222731)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    87131 |       0 (0.00000) |   85727 |    1404 |     977.97 |       0.02 |   117.42 |    977.95 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4415 |       0 (0.00000) |    3905 |     510 |      74.56 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.54 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6735 |       1 (0.00016) |    6304 |     430 |     101.59 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -58.39 | 157.481
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9406 |       4 (0.00045) |    8970 |     432 |     155.45 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -100.53 | 164.675
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11891 |       1 (0.00009) |   11464 |     426 |     401.92 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.14 |   1.189
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14118 |       5 (0.00036) |   13715 |     398 |     798.23 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     64.51 |  91.918
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16517 |      16 (0.00099) |   16065 |     436 |    1216.62 |     341.70 |    55.75 |    874.91 |  28.087
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17958 |      33 (0.00188) |   17484 |     441 |    2222.17 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    799.66 |  64.014
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    22927 |     102 (0.00452) |   22444 |     381 |    4436.57 |    7349.04 |    13.18 |  -2912.46 | 165.647
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31372 |     247 (0.00805) |   30432 |     693 |    5610.29 |    5620.39 |    10.01 |    -10.10 | 100.180
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   104822 |    1615 (0.01548) |  102740 |     467 |   29587.67 |   25189.17 |     1.99 |   4398.50 |  85.134
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    22699 |     534 (0.02390) |   21811 |     354 |    7518.36 |    8065.09 |    15.08 |   -546.73 | 107.272
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    63887 |    1985 (0.03126) |   61512 |     390 |   30839.70 |   27568.54 |     9.34 |   3271.15 |  89.393
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    25231 |    1140 (0.04595) |   23667 |     424 |    9045.21 |    9928.11 |    25.14 |   -882.89 | 109.761
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    30897 |    1873 (0.06137) |   28645 |     379 |    7447.88 |    7295.79 |    31.31 |    152.09 |  97.958
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    40765 |    3755 (0.09307) |   36593 |     417 |   15717.51 |   17493.98 |     7.21 |  -1776.47 | 111.303
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   163054 |   19971 (0.12284) |  142610 |     473 |   83889.80 |   83720.39 |   100.35 |    169.41 |  99.798
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    79539 |   14556 (0.18419) |   64473 |     510 |  162778.09 |  164589.72 |  3314.82 |  -1811.63 | 101.113
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   211975 |   51538 (0.24373) |  159913 |     524 |  354982.44 |  340408.15 |  2056.30 |  14574.28 |  95.894
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   211427 |   77714 (0.36854) |  133157 |     556 |  568400.21 |  559969.64 |  1013.13 |   8430.57 |  98.517
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1036746 |  505271 (0.48807) |  529982 |    1493 |  837627.12 |  819219.26 |  2924.42 |  18407.85 |  97.802
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   520446 |  259594 (0.49972) |  259882 |     970 |  631396.54 |  617523.09 |  5720.70 |  13873.45 |  97.803
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   304576 |  223569 (0.73542) |   80432 |     575 |  287739.18 |  280828.09 |  5455.02 |   6911.08 |  97.598
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    67242 |   53055 (0.79439) |   13732 |     455 |   58614.67 |   57321.36 |  1187.29 |   1293.31 |  97.794
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    51501 |   43669 (0.85642) |    7321 |     511 |   71375.53 |   70856.42 |   400.39 |    519.10 |  99.273
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    78119 |   71142 (0.91641) |    6489 |     488 |   66410.12 |   65710.53 |     0.33 |    699.59 |  98.947
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15049 |   13872 (0.98008) |     282 |     895 |   23451.43 |   23045.38 |   239.88 |    406.05 |  98.269
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3142799 | 1295088           | 1832568 |   15143 |  710185.00 |  695791.64 |   248.31 |  14393.36 |  97.973
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   107646 |   50174           |   57183 |     289 | 2552631.95 | 2498829.32 | 22562.70 |  53802.62 |  97.892
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3250445 | 1345262           | 1889751 |   15432 | 3262816.96 | 3194620.96 | 22811.01 |  68195.99 |  97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68195.99232898 BTC (2.090%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2450.37777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65745.61455398 BTC (2.015%)
Pending Liabilities:          -37.37074704 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65782.98530102 BTC (2.016%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10383530  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5987343  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:   4442.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2458.9  (55.3%)

[Spekulatius]

I appreciate your doing the number of bets analysis.

I'm surprised it's a straight line like that.  I would have figured it would have leveled off after the novelty wore off.

Come to think of it, it kind of looks like the bet rate has accelerated if anything.

+1

thanks!

[dooglus]

I appreciate your doing the number of bets analysis.

I'm surprised it's a straight line like that.  I would have figured it would have leveled off after the novelty wore off.

Come to think of it, it kind of looks like the bet rate has accelerated if anything.

I guess the increasing interest in bitcoin as a whole outweighs the effect of old players getting bored of the game.

[Bugpowder]

I found this transfer from one of the "new whale" addresses.  Looks like this coin may be passed around between the addresses.

Code:

19w1eXEHM973TQfoXsEG2tzGybMSi8kc1D 1,111 BTC
13iH15i8CesFkNo64L9T58zXgSSngLu8kq 7,422 BTC
19CNK8uvq2Kv9KrDmm3A6nk1S3Bixw5HWz 589 BTC
1PLVVXQBZtjy2uBSXR1kbRGLK3dTX3fRXR 1,151 BTC
1N1banjrhLH5pje6ec4xwbRY57QiQPztde 3,321 BTC
12e8YvJQnpNV7qEgrFWqBqAMmisPKx4LzM 2,144 BTC
18L1bftQXum9bGHmc8UVnVE5ndYuZrYYaK 1,574 BTC
1BaMK7jsCiMMkdNNjpuTE4JMSvvsPzKC85 456 BTC
18L3npzAQ8c6JxwHfMmXksDXxCsrdM3Ytc 758 BTC
1Gte5WLQ8oFTYVbzakQgcYQf1hcF9S8Seb 1,456 BTC
12nnoy2G6QeVWMtDnQkhkhV7efPiSfEwQN 1,111 BTC
1JGGhNXaFJhHc6fDtd6PNMRYT5sxc6Fx1v 1,145 BTC
1VvxJdSapervZTWsAgZysSnF2uozvpLX2 755 BTC
1DCFhkCUyM9YfL4aNJQVkQAr9D1YmmDWu6 115 BTC
18HnLehhNwNUu74booJdBYUvWDpTFSnYx7 214 BTC
1VvxJdSapervZTWsAgZysSnF2uozvpLX2 0.17479994 BTC

This address has over 10,000 BTC from this network, is associated with a 'new whale' address but hasn't started betting... YET.

http://blockchain.info/address/17dmDKohWioPHVZT2uzXqwECLYpfCfm2ut

new whale address

http://blockchain.info/address/12Gsb2qQA8ycGWchDxZ3XwbDcT5jUUzTwX

[Ploo]

Is there anywhere I can view SD profit for the month in a numerical form without having to read off a graph?

[romerun]

and the forecast of dividend per share

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

* 1) NO

* 2) NO

But both can be calculated very simply...

1) Final SD profit  X date minus Final SD profit  january 31

2) Repeats and divides by 10M EDIT : 100M


* Not that I know

[romerun]

So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

[Ploo]

So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 10M = 0.00126433150047 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are.

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Divide by 100M, since that's how many shares there are.

yep, my bad !

[scrybe]

So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

[Ploo]

So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.

[thoughtfan]

So, 65782.98530102(feb 23) - 53139.67029635(jan 31) / 100M = 0.00012643 per share, not accounting for the next 5 days ? It looks too much to me.

Updated with better numbers...

FYI, this means we are at 63% of the January dividend right now, and that is without the whale (well, for most of the month at least.)

But we're 85% through the month - except this is a 28 day month. If this were a 31 day month like january we'd still be 77% through the month and under target.

It is not surprising to me that we are lower, and would be even if it were a 31 day month, given that one player that accounted for such a high proportion of last month's profits disappeared off the map (sorry, I can't find the link to what that proportion was).  I am content that growth in numbers of plays has not far off made up for loss of that large single profit source, especially considering each bitcoin bet could have bought so much more other things on average this month than it could have in Jan.

[romerun]

So, avg profit per day of this month is 549.70934802913043 which is a bit lower than Jan's 640.8198732316129