dooglus
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March 12, 2013, 09:15:28 AM |
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Very nice graphs. The 2nd one reminds me of big scary needles rather than violins. 1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing;
Is that true? They increased for a few months Dec 2012 to early Feb this year, but other than that has there been an upwards trend? A version of your first graph with the horizontal scale magnified about x10 would let us see that - just truncate the high values while the whale was playing.
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StarenseN
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March 12, 2013, 09:17:13 AM Last edit: March 12, 2013, 12:35:12 PM by StarenseN |
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What about this graph but with every "violon" as proportion to the highest month volume?
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organofcorti
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March 12, 2013, 10:10:11 AM |
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That's 0.5 BTC tip my dear (I've sent the same to dooglus). Thanks a lot for your contribution! Thanks! Much appreciated. It's dooglus' data and he does much more work than I do so I've passed half onto him.
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StarenseN
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March 12, 2013, 12:35:50 PM |
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That's 0.5 BTC tip my dear (I've sent the same to dooglus). Thanks a lot for your contribution! Thanks! Much appreciated. It's dooglus' data and he does much more work than I do so I've passed half onto him. That's really kind from you. Respect! What about my request? Do you think it would be more revelant to normalize with the higest month volume? It would be easier to spot the trends month to month, I think.
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organofcorti
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March 12, 2013, 12:55:23 PM |
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Very nice graphs. The 2nd one reminds me of big scary needles rather than violins. 1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing;
Is that true? They increased for a few months Dec 2012 to early Feb this year, but other than that has there been an upwards trend? A version of your first graph with the horizontal scale magnified about x10 would let us see that - just truncate the high values while the whale was playing. Got some ideas, will get something up tomorrow. I could be wrong - I might have been letting the percentile charts guide me a bit.
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organofcorti
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March 12, 2013, 12:57:22 PM |
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That's 0.5 BTC tip my dear (I've sent the same to dooglus). Thanks a lot for your contribution! Thanks! Much appreciated. It's dooglus' data and he does much more work than I do so I've passed half onto him. That's really kind from you. Respect! What about my request? Do you think it would be more revelant to normalize with the higest month volume? It would be easier to spot the trends month to month, I think. The first of the pair of charts actually does that - sorry if I didn't make that clear.
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Dabs
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March 12, 2013, 04:13:05 PM |
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Hi, I understand the theoretical part (on consecutive wins or losses). What I'm looking for is actual historical data, and I think you guys already have it. (or the block chain has it.) It just needs to be sorted out. I mean, Mr. Dooglus is already posting statistics of wins vs lose. Like, for the under 48000 I can see that there have been 336630 bets of which 246989 have won and 89013 have lost. I am just curious as to how many of those losses were consecutive and what is the longest chain.
Then you can plot the theoretical formula beside the actual results to compare the "should be" and the "what actually happened already", similar to the comparison of the odds and how each 1dice has actually performed.
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dooglus
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March 12, 2013, 08:44:07 PM |
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Hi, I understand the theoretical part (on consecutive wins or losses). What I'm looking for is actual historical data, and I think you guys already have it. (or the block chain has it.) It just needs to be sorted out. I mean, Mr. Dooglus is already posting statistics of wins vs lose. Like, for the under 48000 I can see that there have been 336630 bets of which 246989 have won and 89013 have lost. I am just curious as to how many of those losses were consecutive and what is the longest chain.
Hi Dabs. Sorry, I was stressed out with other business yesterday when you posted about this. One problem with your request is that there's not really a definitive ordering on the bets. Do we count the time the bet transaction was seen by some random host on the network? Or the timestamp on the block it got into? Or the depth of the block? (Blocks aren't always in order of timestamp). Or do we count the order that the bets were paid out? There are lots of different ways of ordering the bets, which will change the longest sequence of losses. Another problem, and what puts me off from looking into this, is "who cares". Are you wanting the information to check whether the dice rolls are random? ie. "we would expect to see a chain of 10 losses but the longest chain is 20 so SDICE is cheating"? Because other than that I don't really see the point. Runs of good and bad luck happen, due to the random nature of the dice rolls. Suppose I go through the blockchain and find that once there were 21 losses on the 50% game in a row, given some arbitrary ordering of the bets. Then what? I guess I'll do this when I'm bored, but I don't expect it to tell us anything very useful or interesting. Maybe I'm just being grouchy though. That happens too. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Thanks for the tip organofcorti - that's very kind of you. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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StarenseN
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March 12, 2013, 08:54:01 PM Last edit: March 13, 2013, 09:32:10 AM by StarenseN |
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Dabs it's just random probabilities. You can do it by your own.
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dooglus
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March 12, 2013, 08:59:20 PM |
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I was expecting to see a dead flat spot due to yesterday's temporary hard fork. Any idea why I don't? Total of 75 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Mar-12 01:55pm (up to block 225543)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 98853 | 1 (0.00001) | 97293 | 1559 | 1141.96 | 1280.19 | 124.04 | -138.22 | 112.104 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5182 | 0 (0.00000) | 4659 | 523 | 88.08 | 0.03 | 20.45 | 88.05 | 0.034 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7633 | 1 (0.00014) | 7179 | 453 | 115.45 | 160.00 | 12.83 | -44.54 | 138.582 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 11959 | 5 (0.00043) | 11494 | 460 | 224.58 | 431.97 | 10.07 | -207.38 | 192.341 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 13599 | 1 (0.00008) | 13159 | 439 | 456.49 | 4.86 | 22.06 | 451.63 | 1.065 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 17362 | 6 (0.00035) | 16955 | 401 | 944.77 | 813.93 | 1.39 | 130.84 | 86.151 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 18623 | 19 (0.00105) | 18140 | 464 | 1358.11 | 451.99 | 55.81 | 906.12 | 33.281 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19519 | 37 (0.00194) | 19024 | 458 | 2334.50 | 1557.67 | 48.39 | 776.83 | 66.724 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24231 | 105 (0.00440) | 23742 | 384 | 4579.33 | 7357.28 | 13.20 | -2777.94 | 160.663 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 33274 | 266 (0.00817) | 32309 | 699 | 5718.45 | 5648.62 | 10.02 | 69.83 | 98.779 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 117218 | 1778 (0.01524) | 114919 | 521 | 36524.77 | 31953.25 | 2.07 | 4571.51 | 87.484 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24535 | 569 (0.02353) | 23610 | 356 | 7654.14 | 8165.12 | 15.09 | -510.97 | 106.676 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 73764 | 2286 (0.03116) | 71080 | 398 | 37528.25 | 33650.28 | 9.37 | 3877.96 | 89.667 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28698 | 1304 (0.04614) | 26956 | 438 | 9214.32 | 10003.67 | 25.18 | -789.34 | 108.566 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34508 | 2104 (0.06167) | 32012 | 392 | 7613.68 | 7420.70 | 31.35 | 192.97 | 97.465 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 47042 | 4298 (0.09224) | 42300 | 444 | 16018.62 | 17743.72 | 7.28 | -1725.09 | 110.769 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 181359 | 22203 (0.12277) | 158649 | 507 | 91379.48 | 90211.21 | 100.47 | 1168.26 | 98.722 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 93410 | 17030 (0.18336) | 75847 | 533 | 170435.35 | 172432.54 | 3314.88 | -1997.19 | 101.172 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 242100 | 58933 (0.24399) | 182609 | 558 | 365696.95 | 351841.35 | 2322.42 | 13855.59 | 96.211 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 242930 | 89192 (0.36805) | 153147 | 591 | 582622.60 | 574398.05 | 1013.24 | 8224.54 | 98.588 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1113677 | 542749 (0.48807) | 569287 | 1641 | 870341.77 | 852589.61 | 2924.93 | 17752.16 | 97.960 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 600136 | 299328 (0.49970) | 299684 | 1124 | 658985.50 | 642918.15 | 6521.21 | 16067.34 | 97.562 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 338327 | 248253 (0.73514) | 89443 | 631 | 297988.60 | 290575.71 | 5455.26 | 7412.89 | 97.512 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 74267 | 58534 (0.79367) | 15217 | 516 | 61219.85 | 59875.51 | 1187.55 | 1344.34 | 97.804 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 62398 | 52977 (0.85686) | 8850 | 571 | 77209.45 | 76593.02 | 400.54 | 616.42 | 99.202 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 95911 | 87374 (0.91620) | 7992 | 545 | 70581.58 | 69778.98 | 0.50 | 802.59 | 98.863 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 16558 | 15147 (0.97956) | 316 | 1095 | 23993.71 | 23581.20 | 240.19 | 412.51 | 98.281 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3522656 | 1452152 | 2054095 | 16409 | 766592.38 | 752057.27 | 261.23 | 14535.10 | 98.104 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 114417 | 52348 | 61777 | 292 | 2635378.11 | 2579381.45 | 23628.70 | 55996.66 | 97.875 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3637073 | 1504500 | 2115872 | 16701 | 3401970.49 | 3331438.72 | 23889.93 | 70531.76 | 97.927 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 70531.76560380 BTC (2.073%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2837.93797500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 67693.82762880 BTC (1.990%) Pending Liabilities: -74.93245984 BTC Final SD Profit: 67768.76008864 BTC (1.992%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 11423662 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6698542 (58.6%) Blockchain MB: 4904.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 2753.4 (56.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRxrP0jL.png&t=665&c=uXf5RY4DQahBkw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmlzKrRo.png&t=665&c=UjCo3Li_x4Lnsg)
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ThickAsThieves
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March 12, 2013, 09:07:36 PM |
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They didnt shut off betting, just payouts afaik.
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dooglus
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March 12, 2013, 09:32:56 PM |
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They didnt shut off betting, just payouts afaik.
I think my graph only shows payouts though. It ignores bets until they have been paid out.
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miscreanity
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March 12, 2013, 11:50:08 PM |
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They didnt shut off betting, just payouts afaik.
I think my graph only shows payouts though. It ignores bets until they have been paid out. It seems to be as expected since the analysis is done by block - a chart of betting would've levelled off for ~6 hours or so, but payouts would follow the consistent climb. Transactions still had to be processed into the blockchain block by block.
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Dabs
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March 13, 2013, 04:35:35 AM |
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Sorry, I was stressed out with other business yesterday when you posted about this. One problem with your request is that there's not really a definitive ordering on the bets. Do we count the time the bet transaction was seen by some random host on the network? Or the timestamp on the block it got into? Or the depth of the block? (Blocks aren't always in order of timestamp). Or do we count the order that the bets were paid out? There are lots of different ways of ordering the bets, which will change the longest sequence of losses. Another problem, and what puts me off from looking into this, is "who cares". Are you wanting the information to check whether the dice rolls are random? ie. "we would expect to see a chain of 10 losses but the longest chain is 20 so SDICE is cheating"? Because other than that I don't really see the point. Runs of good and bad luck happen, due to the random nature of the dice rolls. Suppose I go through the blockchain and find that once there were 21 losses on the 50% game in a row, given some arbitrary ordering of the bets. Then what? I guess I'll do this when I'm bored, but I don't expect it to tell us anything very useful or interesting. Maybe I'm just being grouchy though. That happens too. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Thanks for the tip organofcorti - that's very kind of you. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Hi, Sorry for adding to the stress. I guess you just pick one way of ordering it, and use that for consistency. Actually, a real world example of a 50% game had 26 losses in a row, in a casino. If you're bored ... you can do this. When you got more bored, you can also do the different ways of ordering. I don't know if it will tell us anything useful, but I think it will be interesting. And the minute you post your analysis, all the gamblers who are reading this thread will suddenly start betting a little bit more, thinking that they can attempt 21 consecutive attempts to martinegale from 0.01 to 500. (I just might do it, hehe.) If you're being grouchy, let me know what I need to download and I will try to do this. (Or at least someone else will, so you have less stress.) Unfortunately, I'm on a crappy OS machine (windows), so I don't know if it's even possible.
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organofcorti
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March 13, 2013, 08:00:11 AM |
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Very nice graphs. The 2nd one reminds me of big scary needles rather than violins. 1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing;
Is that true? They increased for a few months Dec 2012 to early Feb this year, but other than that has there been an upwards trend? A version of your first graph with the horizontal scale magnified about x10 would let us see that - just truncate the high values while the whale was playing. I plotted your request below - normalising to the volume of bets under 50btc (as an arbitrary cut off). I also plotted all bets before December, to make those trends a bit more obvious, too. Tbh, I should have written "the size and volume of bets in December 2012, January 2013 and February 2013 have increased compared to the previous months". Even so, it's not obvious from the plots. I'm working on something similar to the "percentile" plots I did that will hopefully show this sort of information in a more intuitive and cntinuous way than either the violin - er scary hypodermic needle - plots or the percentile plots. Hopefully I'll be able to post it tonight.
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organofcorti
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March 13, 2013, 04:36:04 PM |
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I played around and got some quite beautiful tile plots and contour plots, but they didn't really help show bet size of volume trends. Then I realised that all I had to do was use the proportional violin plots and use colour as a guide to the volume. I hope this works for you. Please don't tell me you're colour blind - I didn't use the colour blind palette. The two below just use different colour schema.
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bb113
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March 13, 2013, 04:56:29 PM |
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Amazing charts OoC, does GGplot let you do multiple axes? It would be good to overlay a line showing total number of bets per month, or perhaps median number per day as well as max/day and min/day for each month.
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miscreanity
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March 13, 2013, 08:26:05 PM |
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I played around and got some quite beautiful tile plots and contour plots, but they didn't really help show bet size of volume trends. Then I realised that all I had to do was use the proportional violin plots and use colour as a guide to the volume. I hope this works for you. Please don't tell me you're colour blind - I didn't use the colour blind palette.
If the 2-3 month cycles are valid and hold, May-June ought to be the start of a very active period.
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organofcorti
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March 13, 2013, 09:24:30 PM |
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Amazing charts OoC, does GGplot let you do multiple axes? It would be good to overlay a line showing total number of bets per month, or perhaps median number per day as well as max/day and min/day for each month.
ggplot doesn't do multiple axes. I read (I think) that the devs planned on support for multiple axes when the axes scale linearly to each other, but they don't plan on the sort of multiple axes you're thinking of. I ccould annotate the chart with the actual numbers, but that's not very pretty. So, number of bets as well as volume of betting? I have a think about it. I hadn't considered that, although it's might be interesting data to have.
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dooglus
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March 13, 2013, 09:54:05 PM |
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Those colourful violin plots are very nice. Meanwhile, back to the regular ugly graphs... Total of 81 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Mar-13 02:23pm (up to block 225709)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 99299 | 1 (0.00001) | 97728 | 1570 | 1148.91 | 1280.22 | 125.02 | -131.31 | 111.429 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5203 | 0 (0.00000) | 4680 | 523 | 88.80 | 0.03 | 20.45 | 88.77 | 0.038 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7650 | 1 (0.00014) | 7196 | 453 | 116.02 | 160.00 | 12.83 | -43.98 | 137.909 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 11977 | 5 (0.00043) | 11510 | 462 | 224.75 | 431.97 | 10.07 | -207.22 | 192.203 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 13667 | 1 (0.00008) | 13225 | 441 | 459.72 | 4.87 | 22.07 | 454.84 | 1.061 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 17583 | 6 (0.00035) | 17176 | 401 | 960.20 | 814.00 | 1.39 | 146.19 | 84.775 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 18802 | 20 (0.00109) | 18318 | 464 | 1373.62 | 573.00 | 55.81 | 800.62 | 41.715 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19574 | 37 (0.00194) | 19079 | 458 | 2339.11 | 1557.69 | 48.39 | 781.42 | 66.593 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24252 | 105 (0.00440) | 23763 | 384 | 4580.14 | 7357.28 | 13.20 | -2777.14 | 160.634 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 33412 | 268 (0.00819) | 32444 | 700 | 5728.28 | 5673.66 | 10.03 | 54.62 | 99.046 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 117777 | 1787 (0.01524) | 115468 | 522 | 36563.46 | 32007.45 | 2.07 | 4556.00 | 87.539 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24571 | 570 (0.02354) | 23645 | 356 | 7656.00 | 8165.57 | 15.09 | -509.57 | 106.656 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 74115 | 2295 (0.03113) | 71422 | 398 | 37546.55 | 33664.34 | 9.37 | 3882.21 | 89.660 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28754 | 1309 (0.04623) | 27007 | 438 | 9216.93 | 10005.02 | 25.18 | -788.09 | 108.550 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34595 | 2111 (0.06172) | 32092 | 392 | 7615.02 | 7422.49 | 31.35 | 192.53 | 97.472 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 47213 | 4314 (0.09224) | 42453 | 446 | 16023.99 | 17754.90 | 7.29 | -1730.91 | 110.802 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 182495 | 22345 (0.12278) | 159640 | 510 | 91427.22 | 90252.05 | 100.47 | 1175.16 | 98.715 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 94075 | 17150 (0.18335) | 76389 | 536 | 170500.40 | 172503.68 | 3314.89 | -2003.28 | 101.175 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 243386 | 59221 (0.24388) | 183604 | 561 | 366002.29 | 352136.29 | 2322.43 | 13866.00 | 96.211 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 244037 | 89577 (0.36796) | 153867 | 593 | 583031.35 | 574788.43 | 1013.25 | 8242.92 | 98.586 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1118230 | 544976 (0.48807) | 571607 | 1647 | 872360.39 | 854669.94 | 2924.95 | 17690.45 | 97.972 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 604294 | 301452 (0.49979) | 301711 | 1131 | 660037.16 | 643964.23 | 6521.23 | 16072.92 | 97.565 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 340319 | 249684 (0.73504) | 90002 | 633 | 298705.42 | 291222.38 | 5455.27 | 7483.03 | 97.495 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 74537 | 58760 (0.79383) | 15261 | 516 | 61463.64 | 60155.50 | 1187.55 | 1308.14 | 97.872 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 63042 | 53532 (0.85696) | 8935 | 575 | 77608.81 | 76990.19 | 400.55 | 618.62 | 99.203 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 96782 | 88168 (0.91620) | 8064 | 550 | 70754.87 | 69949.74 | 0.52 | 805.13 | 98.862 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 16654 | 15234 (0.97962) | 317 | 1103 | 24018.55 | 23606.13 | 240.21 | 412.42 | 98.283 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3541669 | 1460455 | 2064743 | 16471 | 769737.69 | 755242.21 | 262.34 | 14495.48 | 98.117 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 114626 | 52474 | 61860 | 292 | 2637814.03 | 2581868.96 | 23628.70 | 55945.06 | 97.879 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3656295 | 1512929 | 2126603 | 16763 | 3407551.72 | 3337111.17 | 23891.04 | 70440.55 | 97.933 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 70440.55165630 BTC (2.067%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2857.17677500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 67583.37488130 BTC (1.983%) Pending Liabilities: -57.51910827 BTC Final SD Profit: 67640.89398957 BTC (1.985%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 11481028 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6734316 (58.7%) Blockchain MB: 4930.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 2768.0 (56.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fo0DtB0r.png&t=665&c=ADnHfTJTYGzlVw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQRjMlOV.png&t=665&c=mn6DHtXD1Aeeow)
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