keystroke
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February 14, 2013, 10:59:09 PM |
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Up to 17 blocks now.
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"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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iCEBREAKER
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
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February 14, 2013, 11:01:30 PM |
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sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares. I'm buying JAH for this reason. https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAHAnybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF?
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██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████████████ ████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████████ ██████████ Monero
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Monster Tent
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February 14, 2013, 11:02:12 PM |
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sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares. I'm buying JAH for this reason. https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAHAnybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF? DMC
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camolist
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February 14, 2013, 11:03:41 PM |
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You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares. I'm buying JAH for this reason. https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAHAnybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF? ohh. that's awesome then! have some jah shares.
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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February 14, 2013, 11:05:52 PM |
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Doesnt ASICMINER have enough hashpower to solo mine for awhile ?
sure does but i can see why they don't want to take the variance risk in the short term.. we have maybe 2-3 weeks here unless BFL blows up When you control 1/6-1/3 of the network there is no such thing as variance (well technically there is but you get what I mean). there sure is when we are talking about a couple of weeks, no such thing in the long term i agree, but we need guaranteed revenue here... though 2 weeks of great luck on solo would be awesome, bad luck would be very unfortunate. That's utter nonsense. Say "a couple of weeks" means 2 and ASICMINER only achieves 1/6th of the network (the two pessimistic assumptions in your range). Then: In 2 weeks approximately: 14*24*6=2016 bocks will be mined and for each block we will have a chance of 1/6th, so we are expected to mine 336 blocks on average. The chance to mine at least 310 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 310) = 93.7 % The chance to mine at least 300 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 300) = 98.4 % The chance to mine at least 286 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 286) = 99.9 % If the chance of success is large enough variance is hardly the bitch we all know her to be
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Monster Tent
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February 14, 2013, 11:12:08 PM |
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[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike
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greyhawk
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February 14, 2013, 11:15:25 PM |
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[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike I don't think even the US is ballsy enough to go all drone striking places in China.
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Monster Tent
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February 14, 2013, 11:21:01 PM |
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[FUD] I hope they distribute mining clusters elsewhere so that its not all located in one place where the US gov can perform a drone strike I don't think even the US is ballsy enough to go all drone striking places in China. Thats why they hire mercenaries within china. Or send in some criminals to do it. The Dirty Dozen is my favourite movie Or 007 from MI5
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Deprived
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February 14, 2013, 11:21:58 PM |
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sadly one of the few glbse assets i did not hold at least a few shares You can still get exposure to ASICMINER via mining bonds/funds holding their shares. I'm buying JAH for this reason. https://bitfunder.com/asset/JAHAnybody know about others, besides the [closing] GBF? DMC Yeah, each DMC share has a bit under 1/10th of an ASICMINER backing it. There's some other assets owned by DMC as well but the rest aren't worth much (BTC-Mining which gave its funds away to the scammer AmazingRando and BTCMC which has some assets but is being operated in a very dodgy manner and now claims a lot of its cash was in Bitcoinica despite never having mentioned that before). Picked up my DMC (for my fund) at about .02 each (meaning profit if ASICMINER worth over .25 - even if all other DMC assets are totally worthless which isn't quite the case) - think cheapest now were about .03 or .035 last time I looked (so you'd need to value ASICMINER over .4 or assign some value to the other DMC holdings to make them worth buying).
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Monster Tent
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February 14, 2013, 11:29:08 PM |
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Im surprised no one has setup a passthrough yet. I know there is a trading platform coming but in the meantime a pure passthrough might be the way to go.
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SebastianJu
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1083
Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile
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February 14, 2013, 11:30:23 PM |
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Hm, when i see the stats at the pool i see that the rate goes down some time and goes back higher some time. It looks to me like they put a board in, it doesnt work fully and they take it out to repair it or something. It would be interesting to know the real hashrate, not the average only.
I wonder if they really work on one board only at a time. Because if they do i wonder if it wouldnt be better to set up all boards first and put it into because most of the chips will work. Then start taking out single boards to repair some errors there.
But maybe i only misunderstand the stats. Maybe they dont take out a board and its only a variance in the hashrate that cant be changed. So that they work on one board at a time to put it in later.
At the end i think they will have the best plan to do this beforehand. Its only a bit strange to watch the stats.
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Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
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repentance
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February 14, 2013, 11:35:40 PM |
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Im surprised no one has setup a passthrough yet. I know there is a trading platform coming but in the meantime a pure passthrough might be the way to go.
Do their rules allow it? They seem pretty intent on doing everything possible to keep it as a legitimate investment and avoid the kinds of cluster-fucks we've seen in the past due to sketchy intermediaries. You can almost guarantee that if they allow anyone and everyone to operate a pass-through, someone will eventually scam people who invest in the pass-throughs.
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All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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eleuthria
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1007
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February 14, 2013, 11:38:52 PM |
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Hm, when i see the stats at the pool i see that the rate goes down some time and goes back higher some time. It looks to me like they put a board in, it doesnt work fully and they take it out to repair it or something. It would be interesting to know the real hashrate, not the average only.
I wonder if they really work on one board only at a time. Because if they do i wonder if it wouldnt be better to set up all boards first and put it into because most of the chips will work. Then start taking out single boards to repair some errors there.
But maybe i only misunderstand the stats. Maybe they dont take out a board and its only a variance in the hashrate that cant be changed. So that they work on one board at a time to put it in later.
At the end i think they will have the best plan to do this beforehand. Its only a bit strange to watch the stats.
While I do believe they are tweaking things on their end, you're also going to see hash rate variance. Since they are mining at diff=1024 currently, you see a few % migration + or - over the course of an hour. The variable difficulty target rate at BTC Guild normalizes to a less than 1% variance when measured for a 24 hour period for any miner of 1.2 GH/s or higher.
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RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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repentance
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February 14, 2013, 11:58:45 PM |
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Am I the only one refreshing the BTC Guild page and thinking "go little ASIC, go"? I'm literally cheering on a machine. There is no hope for me.
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All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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runeks
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
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February 15, 2013, 12:02:35 AM |
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Doesnt ASICMINER have enough hashpower to solo mine for awhile ?
sure does but i can see why they don't want to take the variance risk in the short term.. we have maybe 2-3 weeks here unless BFL blows up When you control 1/6-1/3 of the network there is no such thing as variance (well technically there is but you get what I mean). there sure is when we are talking about a couple of weeks, no such thing in the long term i agree, but we need guaranteed revenue here... though 2 weeks of great luck on solo would be awesome, bad luck would be very unfortunate. That's utter nonsense. Say "a couple of weeks" means 2 and ASICMINER only achieves 1/6th of the network (the two pessimistic assumptions in your range). Then: In 2 weeks approximately: 14*24*6=2016 bocks will be mined and for each block we will have a chance of 1/6th, so we are expected to mine 336 blocks on average. The chance to mine at least 310 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 310) = 93.7 % The chance to mine at least 300 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 300) = 98.4 % The chance to mine at least 286 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 286) = 99.9 % If the chance of success is large enough variance is hardly the bitch we all know her to be The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea .
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ineededausername
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February 15, 2013, 12:06:24 AM |
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A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER: #!/usr/bin/ruby
require 'net/http' require 'date'
current_hash_rate = 0.00 max_hash_rate = 0.00
loop do begin url = URI.parse('https://www.btcguild.com//halloffame.php') http = Net::HTTP.new(url.host, url.port) http.use_ssl = true request = Net::HTTP::Get.new(url.path) response = http.start {|http| http.request(request)} case response when Net::HTTPSuccess then source = response.body else puts "Error in HTTP connection" next end match_string = '<td>67117</td><td style="text-align: right;">' source = source[(source.index(match_string) + match_string.length)..-1] match_string = ' GH/s</td>' source = source[0...(source.index(match_string))] source.gsub! ',', '' hash_rate = source.to_f if hash_rate != current_hash_rate max_hash_rate = [max_hash_rate, hash_rate].max current_hash_rate = hash_rate puts "#{DateTime.now}:\t current #{"%.2f" % current_hash_rate}\t max #{"%.2f" % max_hash_rate}" end sleep 10.0 rescue next end end
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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keystroke
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February 15, 2013, 12:11:46 AM |
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A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER: #!/usr/bin/ruby
require 'net/http' require 'date'
current_hash_rate = 0.00 max_hash_rate = 0.00
loop do begin url = URI.parse('https://www.btcguild.com//halloffame.php') http = Net::HTTP.new(url.host, url.port) http.use_ssl = true request = Net::HTTP::Get.new(url.path) response = http.start {|http| http.request(request)} case response when Net::HTTPSuccess then source = response.body else puts "Error in HTTP connection" next end match_string = '<td>67117</td><td style="text-align: right;">' source = source[(source.index(match_string) + match_string.length)..-1] match_string = ' GH/s</td>' source = source[0...(source.index(match_string))] source.gsub! ',', '' hash_rate = source.to_f if hash_rate != current_hash_rate max_hash_rate = [max_hash_rate, hash_rate].max current_hash_rate = hash_rate puts "#{DateTime.now}:\t current #{"%.2f" % current_hash_rate}\t max #{"%.2f" % max_hash_rate}" end sleep 10.0 rescue next end end
Awesome, thanks! Yes I have been cheering them on too
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"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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Digigami
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February 15, 2013, 12:13:03 AM |
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A rudimentary script to help you guys cheer on ASICMINER:
Thanks for this, although having an issue with it (and no, I don't know what I'm doing) made file asic.rb and copy/pasted your script.. installed ruby (sudo apt-get install ruby) chmod +x asic.rb then ./asic.rb ; it's clearly running and using ~25% of my cpu, but just sits there with a blinking cursor.. what am I doing wrong if you don't mind helping out a newb
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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February 15, 2013, 12:19:07 AM |
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The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea . Why do you think so? Every block competed for is a binary event with 1/6 chance of success and 5/6 chance of failure. Furthermore every race for a block is independent. That's classical binomial right? Like a runs of flipping a coin (but flipping a coin has success chance of 1/2 instead of 1/6, so more like running a dice ) Convince me I'm wrong and I'll rerun the numbers with Poisson distribution but off to bed now
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DiabloD3
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1000
DiabloMiner author
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February 15, 2013, 12:22:16 AM |
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The probability distribution of finding a block is described by the Poisson distribution, not binomial distribution, right? How that changes these numbers I have no idea . Why do you think so? Every block competed for is a binary event with 1/6 chance of success and 5/6 chance of failure. Furthermore every race for a block is independent. That's classical binomial right? Like a runs of flipping a coin (but flipping a coin has success chance of 1/2 instead of 1/6, so more like running a dice ) Convince me I'm wrong and I'll rerun the numbers with Poisson distribution but off to bed now Its Poisson.
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