ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Franktank]

Making a series of unrealistic assumptions here, but let's go:

They have 200TH+50TH+12TH coming in the near future. Put it all in 10 GH/s blades, and they have 26200 devices to sell. At 26 BTC a piece (current highest bid), that is 681200 BTC in total - or 1.703 BTC per share.

If they all sell at 25, BTC250 spread across 400k shareholders is mBTC0.625 per share.

Last dividend was 0.00695566 (if you include the 1 satoshi per share), or mBTC6.95566

So, no idea what the profit margin on these things is - let's say it's 75% at this price (don't forget, shipping is included).

Which means the proceeds of this sale will produce a once-off 15% bump in dividends.

So the question now is - how many of these things do we have to sell, once the auction is over (and presumably the auction price will become the "normal" price).

They're not going to sell all the TH/s. friedcat specifically stated that they were going to keep the majority of it to ensure maximum profit for shareholders. See last update.

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[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Currently going for 33 BTC each. I think there might be a few snipers, so final price might be more around the 40 BTC range.

[bitfair]

Making a series of unrealistic assumptions here, but let's go:

They have 200TH+50TH+12TH coming in the near future. Put it all in 10 GH/s blades, and they have 26200 devices to sell. At 26 BTC a piece (current highest bid), that is 681200 BTC in total - or 1.703 BTC per share.

I know everyone knows, but to show that I am aware of it, here is how the assumptions are unrealistic:
1. Costs must be subtracted to go from revenue to profit
2. Not selling all TH/s (at the moment)
3. Price will decrease as difficulty increases

But in either case: this back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the shares are still undervalued in my opinion.

And it also shows that it can be much, much more lucrative to sell miners rather than keeping them for self-mining.

[ineededausername]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

[usagi]

First auction is up. Tell your friends.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0

I just bought more shares of ASICMINER.

[Franktank]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Well, folks had their chance of buying shares sub 1 BTC/share. Come on April 22nd!!

[Rodyland]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Well, folks had their chance of buying shares sub 1 BTC/share. Come on April 22nd!!

Wow.  Wonder of much of this is due to a) the pending increased hash rate, b) the extra income to come from sales, c) increased publicity of asicminer due to #b.

Probably a virtuous circle of all three, but I'm glad for it!

[ineededausername]

Wall at 1 being eaten on btct!  17 shares to go

edit: If we sell 5 TH/s of 10 GH/s blades at 50 BTC each, we're going to see 25000 BTC, or .0625 per share O.o
That's only <10% of inventory after this delivery!!!  And then we're getting 200 TH/s more...  1.5 BTC / share might not be enough.

[JaredR26]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Hm, strange that bitfunder has both a lot more depth and is at a much lower price, yet the price rises on btct.co

[ineededausername]

Ask: 1.64 on BTCT

[Rodyland]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Hm, strange that bitfunder has both a lot more depth and is at a much lower price, yet the price rises on btct.co

If it were easy to arbitrage the two it would be a good arbitrage opportunity.  Although the spreads on btct.co are pretty wide compared to bitfunder.

[JordanL]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Glad I picked up a dozen more shares this morning @ 0.805. Much higher than what I bought the bulk of my shares for, but obviously I got some of the last hugely under-priced ASICMINER shares available. If we actually start significantly boosting our hasing power next week and shipping devices soon, the 1.6BTC ask price right now on BTC-TC will sound like a bargain.  

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Glad I picked up a dozen more shares this morning @ 0.805. Much higher than what I bought the bulk of my shares for, but obviously I got some of the last hugely under-priced ASICMINER shares available. If we actually start significantly boosting our hasing power next week and shipping devices soon, the 1.6BTC ask price right now on BTC-TC will sound like a bargain.  

BitFunder is still trading at 0.85

[Franktank]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Glad I picked up a dozen more shares this morning @ 0.805. Much higher than what I bought the bulk of my shares for, but obviously I got some of the last hugely under-priced ASICMINER shares available. If we actually start significantly boosting our hasing power next week and shipping devices soon, the 1.6BTC ask price right now on BTC-TC will sound like a bargain.  

Well, there's been an announced 262 TH/s so far that friedcat can either sell or mine with. Seeing if there is more hashing power in the pipe that has yet to be mentioned.

[ineededausername]

What if ASICMINER goes through a Bitcoin-style bubble and hits 10 BTC each?

[Franktank]

What if ASICMINER goes through a Bitcoin-style bubble and hits 10 BTC each?

*fervently knocks on wood*

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

What if ASICMINER goes through a Bitcoin-style bubble and hits 10 BTC each?

Then people become happy?

[StevenPine]

What if ASICMINER goes through a Bitcoin-style bubble and hits 10 BTC each?

*fervently knocks on wood*

One consideration is how important their underwriting of network security is... so if they end up with ~1/3 of the total hash would it be reasonable to say the company is worth 1/3 of total btc, or perhaps you could say network security is half of all btc value, so controling 1/3 of total hash is worth 1/6 of total btc. Just some idle thoughts.

[nebulus]

1 BTC/share

Secret rocket is taking off!

Lol

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

By your logic, ASICMINER is worth around 10% of total BTC.

If ASICMINER or anyone else gets over 50% of the network hashpower, then the BTC price will crash even if the controlling party doesn't do anything nefarious.