ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[kokojie]

Do yourself, and everyone here a favor and actually run the math for likely divs. You'll see the price is nowhere near justified, unless you think BTC will hit like $300 soon....

USD price of Bitcoin has nearly no impact on the price of ASICMiner shares.

[ThickAsThieves]

Do yourself, and everyone here a favor and actually run the math for likely divs. You'll see the price is nowhere near justified, unless you think BTC will hit like $300 soon....

USD price of Bitcoin has nearly no impact on the price of ASICMiner shares.

I feel like the bitcoin world suddenly acquired a huge set of blinders this week...

[Franktank]

Well those thinking that prices are just a momentary hike, please feel free to sell. Others thinking that share prices will rise, do yourself a favor and buy some. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Time will tell who's right or not.

[SebastianJu]

Do yourself, and everyone here a favor and actually run the math for likely divs. You'll see the price is nowhere near justified, unless you think BTC will hit like $300 soon....

USD price of Bitcoin has nearly no impact on the price of ASICMiner shares.

I feel like the bitcoin world suddenly acquired a huge set of blinders this week...

Why do you think so? As the bitcoin-exchange-price crashed it did nothing to the shareprice. Its normal because the shareprice is in BTC too and the mined BTC doesnt change. Even the selling of miners arent affected with the exchange-price because the investment in BTC has to come back in BTC.

[mrb]

And so? 600btc isn't that much...

600BTC + deployment of additional 12TH very soon. These will basically triple the dividend in the coming weeks.

And so? That alone, tripling the dividend from .007 to .021, is still way too insignificant to justify 1 BTC per share. At best you will see .021 for a few weeks... there are literally hundreds of Thash/s about to be deployed by the competition (the 100TH project, Avalon OEM chip sales, Avalon batches 2 & 3, BFL... eventually).

Pretty quickly, your .021 dividend is going to fall back to .007 or so. Even friedcat himself has said he only expects to represent ~10% of the global hashrate throughout 2013 (that means a .0063 BTC dividend on average).

I have said it before that AM shares were overpriced (back when friedcat had no plan to extend beyond 50 Thash/s, and no plan to sell hardware). The fact that friedcat announced a plan to extend to 200+ Thash/s, and to sell hardware, re-valued ASICMINER in my eyes, but at the same time the landscape of the competition has also suddenly become a lot more active.

[teek]

And so? 600btc isn't that much...

600BTC + deployment of additional 12TH very soon. These will basically triple the dividend in the coming weeks.

And so? That alone, tripling the dividend from .007 to .021, is still way too insignificant to justify 1 BTC per share. At best you will see .021 for a few weeks... there are literally hundreds of Thash/s about to be deployed by the competition (the 100TH project, Avalon OEM chip sales, Avalon batches 2 & 3, BFL... eventually).

Pretty quickly, your .021 dividend is going to fall back to .007 or so. Even friedcat himself has said he only expects to represent ~10% of the global hashrate (that means a .0063 BTC dividend).

I have said it before that AM shares were overpriced (back when friedcat had no plan to extend beyond 50 Thash/s, and no plan to sell hardware). The fact that friedcat announced a plan to extend to 200+ Thash/s, and to sell hardware, re-valued ASICMINER in my eyes, but at the same time the landscape of the competition has also suddenly become a lot more active.

friedcat had "no plan to sell"  and "no plan to expand" ?   I think you need to check your info,  this is a company that designs and builds ASICS for self mining and for sale,  and this is just the beginning,  as far as i know,  that was always "the plan" and thats why we are here.

[mrb]

friedcat had "no plan to sell"  and "no plan to expand" ?   I think you need to check your info

I am correct. As of March 12 (the time I referred to when I said "back then"), friedcat only planned to expand to 50 Thash/s and did not plan to sell hardware. That is what he communicated to shareholders.

These 2 plans emerged later, in late March or early April.

[teek]

friedcat had "no plan to sell"  and "no plan to expand" ?   I think you need to check your info

That is correct. As of March 12 (the time I referred to when I said "back then"), friedcat only planned to expand to 50 Thash/s and did not plan to sell hardware. That is what he communicated to shareholders.

These 2 plans emerged in late March or early April.

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

[talnted]

Dividends thus far:

Div Pay Dates     Div/Share
02/29 (IPO)         0.023545
03/06 (IPO)         0.019163
03/13 (IPO)         0.023786
03/20 (IPO)         0.025998
03/24 (IPO)         0.007508
03/27                 0.003775
04/03                 0.002556
04/10                 0.006956
And Today:
04/17                 0.00696732

So what exactly is making AM shares worth 1.6+btc?

Did you see the auction thread? They are set to have a 600 btc revenue come in from selling 100 ghash of mining power (10 units of 10 GHash at at least 60 btc each), auction will be done in the next couple days.

Do yourself, and everyone here a favor and actually run the math for likely divs. You'll see the price is nowhere near justified, unless you think BTC will hit like $300 soon....

Well, if you factor in the coming hashrate increase for AM, it is justified.

Exactly my thoughts.  There are so many things coming for ASICMINER.

[mrb]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

[SebastianJu]

friedcat had "no plan to sell"  and "no plan to expand" ?   I think you need to check your info

I am correct. As of March 12 (the time I referred to when I said "back then"), friedcat only planned to expand to 50 Thash/s and did not plan to sell hardware. That is what he communicated to shareholders.

These 2 plans emerged later, in late March or early April.

Selling was always planned. But it wasnt on top because self mining is more profitable. Selling now only happens because the deployment stopped. And the selling will move on probably because the deployment can only go beyond 50% of the networks hashinpower. It could only be done simulaneously then. Deploying to remain at <50% and selling to take the profits of BFL and Avalon away... overcoming so the 50% wall and to extend the profits above this...

[seleme]

Well, I've been wrong the other day when I said 0.85 shares were high so I'd probably be if I say 1.6 are high. I'm sure they'll rise more now as it's obvious asicminer has lot of enthusiastic shareholders that pump it's value very religiously but it's still way too expensive just as 10GH hashing power for 60BTC (at the moment, who knows where it will finish) is way too much.

I'm kinda jealous of you early holders, I know, but no chance I'd buy it even if I know they'll rise. It's just not something that has any kind of natural support to rise so much, it's bubbled as hell and no way both shares as well as company products should cost so much.

[teek]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

I'm not going digging for posts,  but you should be looking about 8+ months ago.  Also,  if you think the 50, or even the 200TH expansion for that matter, and selling a few boards is all that is in store for asicminer.. well.. you need to do some DD.  Let's not even talk about next gen as you're a little behind already..

[mrb]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

I'm not going digging for posts,  but you should be looking about 8+ months ago.  Also,  if you think the 50, or even the 200TH expansion for that matter, and selling a few boards is all that is in store for asicminer.. well.. you need to do some DD.  Let's not even talk about next gen as you're a little behind already..

Sigh. You are not digging because you have no data to support you.

Here I dug one post up for you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1529563#msg1529563
As of Feb 15, friedcat had no plan to sell devices. He was merely "considering it", but had no plan.

I think you are the one who is behind or, at best, misinformed

[teek]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

I'm not going digging for posts,  but you should be looking about 8+ months ago.  Also,  if you think the 50, or even the 200TH expansion for that matter, and selling a few boards is all that is in store for asicminer.. well.. you need to do some DD.  Let's not even talk about next gen as you're a little behind already..

Here I dug one post up for you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1529563#msg1529563
As of Feb 15, friedcat had no plan to sell devices. He was merely "considering it", but had no plan.

I think you are the one who is behind or, at best, misinformed

He is referring to that particular batch,  not a company mandate to sell.  The plan has always been to mine first, sell second, since day one.

[mrb]

No actual plan. But selling was planned before IPO.

No "plan", but "planned"? Your sentence is self-contradictory.

[ThickAsThieves]

Okay you guys are right, now is the time to buy. ttyl

[bitfair]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

[JimiQ84]

Net profits are conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s.

Well, it looks like $500 right now

[teek]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

thanks bitfair..  i was beginning to feel "mis-informed"   (not really)