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1161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: January 23, 2013, 03:22:33 AM
Interesting, what assumptions would you say are being made with this model? E.g., Why should price be modeled as the log of the rank?
This is the King effect. While the majority of data points fit onto the line, the top few are above it. This suggests that we are unlikely to have the top 10 days having a similar price, i.e. there will be a significant reduction after the top is reached. This has been particularly applicable to Bitcoin so far.
1162  Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle. on: January 23, 2013, 03:17:20 AM


But what is an 'UD' ?
(introduced by hardihood)

Danish preposition for "out".


                ATTENTION
                NO
                TOO
                I
                DISEASED
                I
                S
            CRÉÉE
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                T
            PRIMAVERA
                B
                L
             ESTIS
                S
                H
                M
                E
       P        N
       R  BARONETCY
OVEIPEYOMAI     A
    A  V  T     R
    C  I  CHUCKWILLSWIDOW
    HARDIHOOD   A
    E  E  I     N
  ACCOUNTANT    I
    ON C        S
       E        M
1163  Other / Off-topic / Re: Avoiding main stream news. on: January 23, 2013, 03:11:16 AM
I feel that ignorance is not necessarily bliss. Shutting off viewpoints because you consider them inaccurate isn't in general a good idea, as it forces you deeper and deeper into your personal bubble. I have an extremist political ideology, am a devout atheist, and have my own system of morals and values. Even though I can disagree with pretty much anything on the news, I don't ignore it. It isn't "manipulation", it's reality.

If we decide to insulate ourselves from news because it is always negative, we are insulating ourselves from reality. Life isn't a dream: there are horrible realities out there. While we can enjoy our lifestyles without news, what purpose is there to this enjoyment.

I certainly would consider myself a rebel. I question authority. But I don't question the media. Why? Because media is by the people and for the people, and this is a fact regardless of who makes it. News reflects reality. This is true no matter who or where it is from. Even a Soviet propaganda piece is inherently accurate, and if it isn't, still reflects on the state of affairs. However biased an article is, reading it is still good for you.

I'm an environmentalist. I believe that global warming and its associated destruction will likely be the death of us. But yet, I still watch Fox News. I choose to do so, even though I believe with all my heart that it is wrong. If I ignore the negatives, I don't help anyone—not society and not myself. Ignoring the news may improve your perceptions of society, but certainly not your understanding. This applies no matter how biased news may seem.

Yes, I agree that news can be disheartening. I would myself much rather take my girlfriend out for a walk than to watch CNN report on the Syrian civil war. But even so, it is irreplaceable. While walking in peace grants valuable time to reflect, one cannot reflect if they do not know anything to reflect on. If you don't know about the Syrian civil war, you cannot form your own opinions about it. You have chosen to shield yourself from it. This will bite you later in life.

We are all humans. We are all specialized. We probably can't do a thing about the Syrian civil war. But is that a good reason to ignore it? No. Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do not read the news are similarly missing out on valuable experience.

What is experience? We all have it. But not all of it is our own. Have you ever tried smoking? If you haven't, good for you. You know it's bad for the human body, not because you've tried it, but because others have. After reading about the drunk driving accident killing 14, maybe you'll gain some of that experience—experience that applies even if you don't drink or if you don't drive.

Blaming the media for promoting values is analogous to blaming the mirror for a bad hair day. The media does not create values; it simply reflects upon values. Good-looking, smart, and rich people are overvalued in society, and this would be true even without the media. We value these because they are the three types of capital: sexual (good looks), social (intelligent), and economic (money).

If we instead valued spirituality, creativity, athleticism, or musicality, these would be reflected upon in the media. And for cultures that used to value them, it did. The Amerindians valued spirituality over economy, and this was reflected in their oral variation of our mainstream media.

We really shouldn't blame the news for our broken system of values. We should blame ourselves. In an ideal world, all values would be treated equally—we would judge people on personality, not economy nor sexuality nor intelligence. But this is not a problem for the media to solve, and we should not ignore the media because it does not solve it.

It's easy to be self-absorbed and plan to accomplish one's own goals one's own way. But noone is smarter than everyone else. The combined knowledge and experience of seven billion is not merely important but indeed critical to one's success. This is the reason I watch the mainstream media—it may not be pleasant, but it is necessary.

We pursue happiness in our lives. This is a mistake. Happiness is an emotion that we evolved hundreds of thousands of years ago to ensure we eat enough to survive. One can live a happy life, but contribute nothing. Doesn't that seem meaningless? We should not strive for a happy life. We should strive for a meaningful one.

Of course, so as to end this post on a positive note, I do agree that mainstream media isn't everything. I also read blogs and tabloids, especially ones about subjects I'm interested it. I take care to distrust everything I read—call me paranoid—and disagree about opinions even if I trust the facts. I am my own person, and I have my own version of the news. But this version ultimately derives from—dare I say—the mainstream media.
1164  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Poll] Assuming its a bubble, when will it pop? on: January 23, 2013, 02:19:20 AM
It is in fact highly unlikely that the price will both reach an all-time high and not retrace significantly. Bitcoin's history (albeit short) does not allow for this phenomenon:
1165  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee) on: January 23, 2013, 02:07:50 AM
18.55
1166  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Quick, answer! Is BTC 0.000152 big or small? on: January 23, 2013, 02:06:11 AM
Yeah I know that, but since the entire thread is about making up stupid and possibly arbitrary newfangled notations I figured I might as have a go at it myself.

Plus, mine does not even require forking the blockchain!

Though I guess if this is really all about making up excuses for forking the blockchain, I suggest we use 128-bit numbers to get rid of the stupid 8-decimals restriction, and use binary coded decimal math libs, and use three fields for value so we can code Coins, Millis and Micros right into the blackchain as distinct fields.

Oh and while we are at it, I'd like a few million coins for me coded into the genesis block.

-MarkM-


Eventually, the blockchain should migrate to floating-point numbers (X*10^E) as to future-proof it. Proper restrictions on the exponent such as to avoid obscene values of X would be necessary, but could be changed in a decentralized manner. This will, however, require a blockchain fork.
1167  Other / Off-topic / If I had a bitcoin... on: January 23, 2013, 02:01:04 AM
I would buy myself some headphones.


Continuing on this theme, find things available for sale for just one BTC or less. Take a picture or post a link. It should be fun to monitor what a BTC can buy over time. Advertising and self-promotion are both perfectly fine!
1168  Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle. on: January 23, 2013, 01:54:11 AM

                AT
                NO
                T
                I
                DISEASED
                I
                S
            CRÉÉE
                S
                T
            PRIMAVERA
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                L
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                H
                M
                E
       P        N
       R  BARONETCY
OVEIPEYOMAI     A
    A  V  T     R
    C  I  CHUCKWILLSWIDOW
    HARDIHOOD   A
    E  E  I     N
  ACCOUNTANT    I
    ON C        S
       E        M
1169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: January 23, 2013, 01:51:46 AM
Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices:


The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:

  • Price remains below ~$25, with stability
  • Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
  • Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
  • Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability

The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.
1170  Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle. on: January 23, 2013, 01:35:00 AM

                AT
                N
                T
                I
                DISEASED
                I
                S
            CRÉÉE
                S
                T
                A
                B
                L
                I
                S
                H
                M
                E
       P        N
       R  BARONETCY
OVEIPEYOMAI     A
    A  V  T     R
    C  I  CHUCKWILLSWIDOW
    HARDIHOOD   A
    E  E  I     N
  ACCOUNTANT    I
    ON C        S
       E        M


I recommend [pre].
1171  Economy / Speculation / Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: January 23, 2013, 01:19:04 AM
1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
4. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
5. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.90
6. 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 19.68
7. 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 19.25
8. 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 18.86
9. 2011-06-06 W. Avg: 18.46
10. 2011-06-19 W. Avg: 17.77
11. 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 17.61
12. 2011-06-05 W. Avg: 17.32
13. 2013-01-22 W. Avg: 17.15
14. 2011-06-27 W. Avg: 17.01
15. 2011-06-28 W. Avg: 16.93
16. 2011-06-29 W. Avg: 16.88
17. 2011-06-30 W. Avg: 16.51
18. 2011-06-04 W. Avg: 16.41
19. 2013-01-21 W. Avg: 16.38
20. 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 16.21

(w. avgs rounded to 5 decimal places (mBTC) or 2 decimal places (BTC), Mt. Gox USD data before June 10, 2013; Bitstamp USD data after June 10, 2013)

Every one of the entries is in June 2011 except for the two previous days, which now rank 13th and 19th. I have a feeling that we'll break top ten soon.
1172  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: List of Major Bitcoin Heists, Thefts, Hacks, Scams, and Losses on: January 22, 2013, 10:50:44 PM
Apparently a nasty trojan went around in 2012. I've added that to the list, ranking 15th.

@Vircurex: any evidence amount stolen > 1000 BTC?
1173  Other / Off-topic / Re: False flag school shooting take #2? on: January 22, 2013, 10:00:30 PM
There's been another school shooting, this time at a community college in Texas
http://www.policymic.com/articles/23881/lone-star-college-school-shooting-live-houston-campus-rocked-by-shooting


The stories and reports from Sandy Hook are too conflicting, maybe this time they better prepared their crisis actors and want another chance to push the gun control agenda?

Are you serious? People get disabilities and can even die from these school shootings, and you deny they ever happened?

Sometimes we politicize these shootings too much. A school shooting is a serious time to memorialize the victims, not to discuss the merits of gun control. Can't we wait until the shootings are a distant memory before discussing this? And, why deny it, when 50 different sources report on it?
1174  Other / Meta / Re: donator 10, vip 50 on: January 22, 2013, 09:51:29 PM
Here, take our money, for free, to help the forum.

Nope, I don't want to manually deal with too many payments.

You misunderstand theymos's role. People are not giving the money to him. The money is going to the forum, which is an organization he receives no salary from. He volunteers his time to grant large donators their statuses. Smaller donators then go up to him and complain how they don't get status for their 1 BTC donation. It's perfectly fair for him to refuse.
1175  Economy / Services / Re: Tutoring / Distance learning — Computer Science, Mathematics on: January 22, 2013, 01:01:23 AM
What are your qualifications? BMath? MMath? PhD?
1176  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Add a "low priority" setting for Windoze? on: January 21, 2013, 05:27:57 AM
Any mod want to move this for me?
You can do so yourself.
1177  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Announcement] Avalon ASIC Ships on: January 21, 2013, 01:28:16 AM
I'm still skeptical. No pictures? No actual proof?

I'm thinking they're still not ready and are using this thread to buy time. All the FUD in this thread will probably buy them another week or two without having to formally announce a delay.
Emphasis mine.

Someone hasn't read the thread. Here's the picture Avalon posted, for the 10th time now:

1178  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Avalon Asics delay or are the Chinese post offices open arround 9 pm on Sunday? on: January 21, 2013, 12:14:57 AM
So technically speaking nobody is shipping anything right now?
By now, they are shipping as it is morning there.
1179  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Will Avalon ship on schedule??? >>> VOTE on: January 20, 2013, 08:55:55 PM

BitSyncom said they shipped, and mentioned two of the recipients. He didn't say only two were shipped.

You're right.  I don't think this will change anything until several people are posting pictures and screenshots.


For what it's worth, I think the attitude is going to be the same when other companies ship as well - people aren't going to be satisfied until end users are posting pictures and reports.  And that's fair enough, really.

It has proven so in the past with Bitcoin Magazine, so it will likely continue to be so in the future.
1180  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Avalon Asics delay or are the Chinese post offices open arround 9 pm on Sunday? on: January 20, 2013, 08:34:39 PM
I was asking myself, and maybe there is somebody who knows exactly: are the Chinese post offices open at 9 pm on Sunday?
Because if they aren't it would mean that the Avalon asics wouldn't be shipped anywhere today in any case, except for those who are queueing in front of Avalon's gates Smiley


China Post is 7 days a week from 8:00 to 18:00. So it will not be open at 9 PM (21:00), but Sunday is not a concern.
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