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My story answers the question why the bidwall shrank simultaneously across all MtGox markets, yours did not, not to mention the complication with converting the investors money to NZD and other currencies. You write you don't actually believe your story and I am with you - it is not very plausible.
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Update - yeah it looks like all bids are automatically posted across all MtGox markets with MtGox handling the conversions - so all this speculation was wrong, sorry  But actually I could not find any announcement of that mechanism. This is of course a pure speculation - but consider the facts. There is a bid wall for 20K BTC across all 15 or something MtGox markets for approximately the same price, even for currencies like NZD that did not see any action for a looong time. There used to be a similar 50K BTC wall across all markets - it started appearing somewhere in October I think (but maybe earlier) - it always was set in parallel for all markets (but I did not check this thoroughly until this week). The 50K wall from early this week at $2.4, across all markets would mean about 750K BTCs which means about $1.8 million. This could be from a crazy investor, realizing the scenario from the 'What would happen if someone invested a million dollars into bitcoins' thread, but if that is the case then why the 50K wall shrank to 20K wall simultaneously in all markets? This looks like a strange move if this was from an investor, but not that strange if it is a MtGox manipulation. It looks like they had a fund for this and after this fund was diminished by people selling into the bid wall yesterday they had to shrink the bid wall as well, it also looks that it is in fact just one bid wall leveraged across all the markets. |
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So if the trend persists how long before BTC goes sub-zero?
Never - this is a log scale. |
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I've seen this mentioned many times here that people 'hedge' their long positions on bitcoins with shorting them on bitcoinica. It would be interesting to see how widespread is that.
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No chance that this is treated seriously.
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Ah - yeah - I've read it as 6 months (because the peak seems to be the most referred to point) - my fault.
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What do you mean by back up? How the retracement is different from all the other partial retracements after big drops this autumn? This is a sincere question - from a casual look it might be a bit bigger - but for a lay person as myself that does not look significant.
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Good point, I suppose I need to keep enough of a reserve to last to the breakeven point at 3.8 in order to be "foolproof", and even then I'd have to liquidate everything to be assured a break even.
I'd prefer to liquidate the short at 2.5, profit, wait until price rebounds to 3.5, then profit doubly.
Either way, the important bit is that the market can't run away from me. If it magically jumps to $5, I'm not left out completely, assuaging my FOMO. Yes, you have to liquidate everything to be assured a break even. But then you also have no investment anymore. If you are holding equal amounts of shorts and longs, you might as well not have done any investment, and save yourself the spread fees. Your current setup assumes that if the price hits 3.6, it will keep rising to much greater heights. But if you have that assumption, you can also just not have any positions, and set a stop buy order at 3.6. This would save you from paying spread. Plus he does not show the graph below 2, plus he assumes that when it goes down he'll liquidate the short at the exact moment it bounces back. I've already seen before that strategy announced on this forum - the absurdity of it just boggles my mind - how on earth someone could think that selling borrowed bitcoins will be somehow more profitable then selling your own. |
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It's 2 months since my original post and I still think that looking at the transaction count is relevant. In fact 9 months ago we had 10% the transactions we have now and surprisingly the price was almost exactly 10% of what it is now.
I guess what you meant is the exactly opposite what you wrote - that we have now 10% of the price that was back then. But actually I know that without looking at the transactions count - maybe what you meant about transactions count is also opposite of what you wrote? And if not - if you really think that using transactions count you can predict the prices - then you'd need to post a more detailed graph showing what is really the lead time between the transactions count and the price - because from that graph you posted it does not look likely. |
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There IS an upward push on pricing from miners. And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs. So...  You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins? Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining. No, I'm saying that some miners hold, so it *helps* with upward pricing on bitcoins. We have a relatively steady price right now. If all miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be lower. If no miners sold their bitcoins after mining them, the price would be higher. BECAUSE we have SOME miners who don't sell their bitcoins, it keeps the price where it is at, by maintaining some upward pressure on the price. And yes, holding bitcoins DOES put upward pressure on the price. If everyone held, there would still be buyers, so the buyers would start offering higher prices. The holders would be contributing to the upward pressure on the price. This is the same thing as saying "not buying" puts downward pressure on the price. So most holders are, in reality contributing to both upward and downward pressure. Yeah - and the question is if there are more 'not sellers' or 'not buyers'. |
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All the classic sings that this mini rally is going to turn lower. Just like how it has done many times before. Price has been stagnant for a few days, volume is dropping, price is slowly creeping towards the resistance point.
Is this the rinse and repeat that the market manipulators are using to cash out money from many of you fools on here? Push the price up higher, sell a bunch at that higher price, let the price drop lower.
Is it a manipulator who is trying to protect his huge 100,000K Plus coin bitcoin investment and can't muscle propping up the whole market by his bid walls.
I do not know, but one thing looks almost certain, a reversal that will drop below $3.00, and start heading to the $2.00 resistance point.
I am not in a bullish mood right now - but when I read a post like this I can feel the authors anxiety behind these 'almost certain things'. |
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There IS an upward push on pricing from miners. And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs. So... You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins? Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining. Miners do not have to sell. They have the choice of selling, or holding. Perhaps you could say miners holding is a pull upward? No - holding is not pushing down - that does not equal pushing up. |
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There IS an upward push on pricing from miners. And most miners DO still turn a profit on their rigs. So... You've got me here - how can miners push up when all they do is producing bitcoins? Or do you say that today all miners are automatically also buyers now because the prices are so low that buying is cheaper then mining. |
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@netrin:
since i am very new to this forum and bitcoin at all, i might have a more objective view on the sentiments of the bitcoin-community..
my observation so far: despair, zynism, all-hope-is-gone is in the game already, while there seems to be a steady input of people like me, who see low prices in BTC (compared to what they used to be some months ago) and are very optimistic and enthusiastic cause of this. so basically there are the depressed people who participated in the bubble and keep suffering since and new optimistic bullish people like me.
so it seems to me, as if a critical low point has already happened.. i also think it does not really matter if prices fall any deeper, cause either they now continue slowly to climb, or fall once deep and then shoot up high and then continue to climb or stay at theire usefull level.
another posts names pretty good what i intend to say: "Bitcoin is approaching its usefull value"
The value of the service of the Bitcoin system is still below the costs. What is the value of money that can be spent in just one restaurant in New York? There are maybe a couple of special cases where Bitcoin is useful now - Silk Road and someone reported that it is the only mean of making fast money transfers to China (but who knows if he is right, and for example here in Poland we already have a system of instant money transfers between bank accounts with just a minimal fee) - but I would speculate that it's value is even lower than the value of man-hours spent on this forum alone, not even counting the hours spent on the exchanges and the effort of the software developers and what with the electricity spent on mining? Bitcoin's useful value is way below zero now. But don't read this too hastily - all money systems require the network effect to work - once a threshold is reached the value will shoot up quickly - that's what everyone speculates about and that's why they are willing to pay more then 0 for bitcoins now. |
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The question is if 4 is really finished now - my amateur subwave analysis suggest that it will take a bit more.
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HAHAHA ROFLCOPTER ROFLCOPTER. I would love to see someone try to "Regulate" or "Tax" bitcoins.  Good luck keeping track of that ginoumous block chain! hahahaha bwaaaahahahaha. They can regulate exchanges, they can regulate the coders. You think you are safe behind your cryptography Maginot Line - but it's only your limited imagination. I don't say I am surprised - but it certainly is disconcerting to see that the subject of potential weaknesses of the bitcoin system is such a taboo here. |
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I've felt changes happening as well for the past month. It seems that "connected nodes" are dropping. My website use to have a constant 100 nodes on average now in the 50-70 range of nodes connected. Makes me believe that a lot of miners whom were constantly online are now dropping off. As far as all the theories go well... Idk i guess we'll never know.
I suppose that if more "pure" bitcoiners come in and mine instead of "pumpdump" or "traders" come in we can get a pretty good stable economy going scince pure bitcoiners will use their bitcoins when its good for the economy and then hold their bitcoins when its good for the ecnomoy. Traders/Pumpdumpers will just hoard until its profitable to cash out which isn't good considering all the purists are the ones influencing the ride. Currently tho its sorta looking like all the money makers are dropping out.
Spot on - maybe we could somehow police those evil speculators, traders and pumpdumpers? Otherwise they will just jump on the bandwagon at the very instant that the rally is confirmed. |
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Huh?
~7200 coins are mined every day, regardless of how few or how many miners there are. So that's 7200 coins going into the hands of miners, every day. The only way those coins are going into other people's hands is if they are sold...
I must be missing the point.
Not exactly - what I see at bitcoincharts is that the current average is 4 blocks per hour instead of the normal 6 - that means that only about 5000 coins are minted per day. I think it can also explain the recent price increases. |
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It's just retracting the 70% of the jump down - just like in all previous cases:  |
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