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I say that's the case in most, but not all, scenarios.
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stuff
So you say you won't take the bet that "MAD will work," then go on to say that "MAD won't work?" MAD will not work I bet 5 BTC it will, or the aliens will be assured of destruction without us being assured of destruction. |
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How about, GIPPT will profit in 20 weeks if pirate doesn't default, AND GIPPT doesn't even need to have liquid backing capital? If I sell my car and invest it in pirate, that's one way to profit by pirate not defaulting. However, if I use my car to back other people's money in pirate, then I get a cut of their profits and can still drive my car. That's the scenario: I make the bet while retaining my capital.
The insurer is still at risk of default because their car's value is not tied to BTC. Say the insurer backs the 5000btc deposit with his $55k porsche at IPO when btc are worth $11. If btc rises to $31 again and pirate defaults, then the insurer is also in default (out ~$100k) because his car is no longer worth 5000btc. Sigh.  How about I have something tied to BTC? A freshly-minted VIP donator account? In any case, your point is irrelevant. In reality, the insurance funds are deposited with hashking and imsaguy, who may or may not default if pirate does.
Again, this is irrelevant and does not disprove my earlier scenario in which this is profitable for the issuer. |
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I'm assuming theymos was serious. If he was serious, then there must be some reason behind it. Like, the asset being locked... I call that 'drama' too.
I am serious. Obviously I don't think there's a huge risk or I wouldn't be buying any BDT shares. But this freeze is reason to be concerned, and some investors might just need their principal back ASAP. And back to the original point, I have no reason to be concerned, because I have to wonder... after this thread, why did people buy BDT? I was initially interested, but the incompetence in promise-keeping steered me away rather quickly You say it doesn't prove anything, but it gave me a bad gut feeling and saved me from all this drama
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I'll buy BDT shares now from trustworthy people (via PGP-signed futures contracts) @ 0.6 BTC per share.
This drama. A 40% loss is significant. Its only a loss if you sell. I'm assuming theymos was serious. If he was serious, then there must be some reason behind it. Like, the asset being locked... I call that 'drama' too. |
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How about, GIPPT will profit in 20 weeks if pirate doesn't default, AND GIPPT doesn't even need to have liquid backing capital? If I sell my car and invest it in pirate, that's one way to profit by pirate not defaulting. However, if I use my car to back other people's money in pirate, then I get a cut of their profits and can still drive my car. That's the scenario: I make the bet while retaining my capital.
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stuff
So you say you won't take the bet that "MAD will work," then go on to say that "MAD won't work?" |
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I'll buy BDT shares now from trustworthy people (via PGP-signed futures contracts) @ 0.6 BTC per share.
This drama. A 40% loss is significant. |
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So will you take the bet, myrkul?
No, it's highly likely that we will have the capability of destroying at least ecosystems before we run into another sentience. The point is, that even assuming we have Nova-bombs, capable of destroying entire solar systems, MAD does not work unless we know, ahead of time, who will be attacking, and have that nova bomb aimed at their home system, and that bomb, once fired, is unstoppable. Threatening any force that comes calling with mutually assured destruction only works if you can actually pull it off. Here's a hypothetical: First race we come into contact with is isolationist. Following Nimda's strategy of knock once, then kick the door down, we force them to trade with us. Second race we run into is not isolationist, and, perhaps, has run into the first one. Their delegates ask us how we convinced them to trade. We reply, "Oh, orbital bombardment can be quite persuasive." After a brief discussion, verifying that, yes, we did just say what they thought we said, they call home, and get together 5 or 6 races that we have never even met before, and send their fleets to Earth. When the fleets arrive, we broadcast to them, "Greetings, don't fuck with us, or we'll blow up these two systems!" They send back "That would be unfortunate, but in the end, we would simply add that to the list of your crimes. We are not from those systems." They then proceed to turn Earth back into a molten ball of rock. Wouldn't it be better to just leave the isolationists alone, and trade with someone else? Will you take the bet if I simply say that "MAD will work?" I.e. we'll be able to aim it quickly, etc |
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You say it doesn't prove anything, but it gave me a bad gut feeling and saved me from all this drama
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In what universe is a bond selling at 1.55 "100% insured"  Yeah, well, some people prefer semantics over math. An investor in this bond will lose 35% of their initial investment in the event of a pirate default. I say that makes it 65% insured, but the "face value" is initially insured. Yuck. The term "face value" makes me sick. |
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I consider Patrick to be the lowest-risk borrower in the Lending subforum. However, Kluge is also low-risk, established, and acceptable.
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Good answer, but I would like a little further clarification just because I don't see the answer-
Someday (in non-default based future), Pirate will drop his service and return all deposits. What happens at that point? I assume since you got all the deposits returned to you, you will turn around and buy back all shares @1 btc. Correct?
How big does someone have to be to ask for a direct withdrawal? Is there any price point of GIPPT where you would consider initiating a small pirate withdrawal specifically to buy back shares on GLBSE and cancel out the shares? If you don't do this then I think you are earning interest yourself on value that is no longer present in the market you created... it's an interesting position to be in.
Apologize if these are dumb questions, I like your fund.
Thank you-
I think the bonds are worth hell of a lot more then they are currently, which is kind of sad to see  You guys don't like the asset? The bonds are worth more than 1.2 BTC, by my math. The market is simply saturated. 1 BTC is a joke for them, because then there's 0 risk for the investor of a pirate default. Pirate defaults, I don't lose anything. And that is why I pulled out of YARR and won't be buying Goat's bond. It is not zero risk. If pirate defaults, you have to hope that ineedausername and imsaguy, who are both heavily invested in pirate, do not default on the insurance. Right. However, I trust INAU more than usagi. It's rather simple to factor in "likelihood to obey the contract" into calculations. Besides, it's only 20 bucks. Remember this: Logic question.
Supposedly, someone offers to lock up 5k in escrow and then insure 5k pirate coins with it, paying 2.5% interest to customers on them. If the same person were to just place the 5k into BS&T and take the whole interest himself, he would never have more risk, but always more profit.
I don't see why anyone would make such an offer.
1. It's always not locked up. This throws Vandroiy's entire argument out the window, mathematically. 2. GIPPT will profit if pirate does not default in 20 weeks. Therefore, GIPPT is essentially a bet against the consumer that pirate will not default. The consumer gets a win / win less scenario (they could have gotten more with direct pirate), and the issuer gets a win-lose scenario. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. 3. Vandroiy is rather desperate for a pirate default. You should take this into account when reading his posts and always check his math. |
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I got my test deposit. I got involved with this, because I let my 13 year old son use my Paypal account to convert some of his btc to purchase a video game. When the charge back occurred, I went to my son and said I am now $30 negative in my account and who knows when this will get resolved. We came up with two options: 1) pay me now or 2) pay me once this is all over and we are reimbursed, but since time is money, there will be interest due. He didn’t want to pay interest so he paid me in full (with some of his Cognitive Mining Stocks- before they shot up in value- lucky me  ). Discussing this situation with my son, we have talked about what he would do in the same situation. I pointed out how some of these guys have pretty big amounts tied up, and in the bitcoin world, a lot can happen in a short amount of time. And that time is money. He said he would 1) Empty out his bank account. 2) Sell some his belongings 3) Get a loan from a family member or friend 4) Get another job or expand out what he does with Bees Brothers to pay off the loan as fast as he could. I was glad he recognized that his savings account was now in reality other people’s money. And that the purpose of a savings account is for helping you get out of bad situations when they occur. My son also said that “TangibleCryptography was really cool and that we should send them a box of honey caramels as thanks for helping everyone”. So Tangible Team I will send you a box of honey caramels next week. Thanks. Responsible parenting! What a refreshing change, somebody who doesn't expect the village to raise his children, but is willing to actually teach them useful lessons in life. I applaud you, Sir. Huge +1 |
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FirstAscent, I'll say it again. However educated you believe yourself to be, ad-hominem and condescension do not win debates.
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If you think PatrickHarnett's business is risky, I'd stay away from any and all GLBSE securities.
His pirate passthrough or something else? Hell no. His normal low-risk 1%/week compounding deal. Patrick's pirate passthrough is far from optimal, unless you don't trust any other pirate passthrough vendor. |
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Good answer, but I would like a little further clarification just because I don't see the answer-
Someday (in non-default based future), Pirate will drop his service and return all deposits. What happens at that point? I assume since you got all the deposits returned to you, you will turn around and buy back all shares @1 btc. Correct?
How big does someone have to be to ask for a direct withdrawal? Is there any price point of GIPPT where you would consider initiating a small pirate withdrawal specifically to buy back shares on GLBSE and cancel out the shares? If you don't do this then I think you are earning interest yourself on value that is no longer present in the market you created... it's an interesting position to be in.
Apologize if these are dumb questions, I like your fund.
Thank you-
I think the bonds are worth hell of a lot more then they are currently, which is kind of sad to see You guys don't like the asset? The bonds are worth more than 1.2 BTC, by my math. The market is simply saturated. 1 BTC is a joke for them, because then there's 0 risk for the investor of a pirate default. Pirate defaults, I don't lose anything. And that is why I pulled out of YARR and won't be buying Goat's bond. |
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I have to wonder... after this thread, why did people buy BDT? I was initially interested, but the incompetence in promise-keeping steered me away rather quickly |
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If you think PatrickHarnett's business is risky, I'd stay away from any and all GLBSE securities.
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The real question should be: does the cattle industry reimburse the environment for the damage it does by the extermination of wolves, by polluting the ground, and so on.
Do you deny that by eating beef, you are creating demand and creating an incentive to wrong the environment? |
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