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1741  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Big Short movie, BTC edition? on: March 12, 2023, 02:18:32 AM
This is very head scratching. It has always been speculated that Tether might be the stablecoin that might fail and bring the big short to the cryptospace, however, it is beginning to appear that USDC might be the one hehehe.

The peg went below $0.90 but it is returning back to $0.95. We cannot be quite certain if this is the end of the show, however.



Crypto investors have flocked to redeem their USD Coin (USDC) holdings after its issuer Circle revealed it held $3.3 billion of its reserves at the failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Concerns about USDC’s reserves emerged after U.S. regulators took control of the bank. The stablecoin issuer confirmed it had exposure to the institution, leading to massive withdrawals from the platform.

Meanwhile, the concerns about the stablecoin reserves have seen it depeg against its rivals. BeInCrypto data showed that the stablecoin tanked 10% following the news to $0.90 as of press time.

Top crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase said they would suspend USDC’s conversion, citing “market conditions.” Binance said the move was a “normal risk-management procedural step to take.” Coinbase also suspended the stablecoin’s conversion over the weekend. The U.S.-based exchange plans to recommence the conversion on Monday when banks open.


Source https://beincrypto.com/usdc-market-cap-6b-circle-exposure-silicon-valley-bank/



Also, there are reports that there are billions of venture capital funds that cannot be withdrawn from Silicon Valley bank because of the bank run. The crypto related funds are owned by a16z cryptoventures, Pantera and Paradigm. They have invested billions in different projects in the cryptospace.



Source https://mobile.twitter.com/wublockchain/status/1634473009061953536
1742  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Is the Binance the next to bite the dust or FUD? on: March 11, 2023, 02:23:59 AM
I hope you are correct that this will not lead for Binance to be biting the dust because I reckon it will certainly make the cryptospace perceived as a comedy show by scammers and hustlers.
In recent events, many centralized exchanges and services have bitten the dust and people have lost so much money, if Binance is next to bite the dust, it would just be added to the long list of centralized exchanges that have collapsed. Yeah it is a bigger exchange and may have a bigger impact, but that's for shitcoins as it would expunge many of them from the network; the only effect it will have on BTC is a temporary reduction in price and a chance to buy low.
This might discourage the institutional investors and encourage regulators to protect consumers by creating stricter regulations that will restrain innovation. Also, regulations are only made under an act that it was created to protect consumers. What it will do is harden the rulers' financial leadership. The cryptospace will not be ours anymore.
Or it may encourage people to look for no-KYC alternatives to buy their BTC and to only hold them in a self custody wallet. Because of how 'powerful' centralized exchanges have become, many people think they own or control the network, maybe it would teach people to know they can buy, sell and hold their BTC's without Binance.

In another news, silvergate is shutting down operations.
silvergate is shutting operations and liquidating after market meltdown.


There is also the Silverbank, the Silicon Valley bank that are having problems and also another rumored unnamed bank that might also be having similar problems. Mainstream news media are making it appear that the cryptospace is the cause, however, there are information being shared social media that their problems are self inflicted.

What we should very much concered about is USDC because much of the stablecoin is presently not backed by real dollars. Circle was holding billions of the backing in one of those banks.
1743  Economy / Exchanges / New York Attorney General Sues KuCoin on: March 11, 2023, 01:56:35 AM
The skeptical me is beginning to speculate that there is a coordinated attack against the cryptospace. Within 7 days we witnessed what was assumed a market dump of 49,000 coins by the American government, a fud on Binance, rumor that the SEC are sending wells notices to all Defi project founders located in the USA and presently New York AG vs. Kucoin. This is very head shaking. The market appears to have been okay, however.



The New York Attorney General's office today filed a lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin for allegedly violating securities and commodities laws in the state.

The NYAG's lawsuit targets KuCoin for allegedly “falsely representing itself as an exchange” when really it is a “securities and commodities broker-dealer.” It aims to block access to the exchange in New York by forcing KuCoin to geo-fence its website based on IP addresses and GPS location.


Read in full https://decrypt.co/123102/new-york-attorney-general-kucoin-ethereum-security
1744  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 on: March 10, 2023, 04:35:05 AM
This might be the most head shaking speculation. Lamar certainly appears that he does not want to play for the Ravens. There are teams that need a quarterback, however, there is a team that certainly needs a quarterback of Lamar's caliber to win the superbowl. They have the offensive line, the wide receivers, the tightend and the running back. What is needed is the quarterback which it can be Lamar. My prediction is Trey Lance will be traded to the Ravens for Lamar Jackson!
1745  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / [NEWS] Biden budget proposes 30% tax on crypto mining electricity usage on: March 10, 2023, 03:16:41 AM
I speculated about this before but I was called an antagonizer and a fud spreader. However, it is here. The Biden administration is pushing out bitcoin mining by making it more difficult to make profit through raising their taxes. They cannot do a blanket ban similar to the Chinese way because America's government structure is less centralized than China's government structure.

On account of this, I speculate that there is a chance that illegal mining and stealing of electrcity might rise in America. Is there a chance that American gangs and cartels might be interested in mining internet money?



United States crypto miners could eventually be subject to a 30% tax on electricity costs under a budget proposal by President Joe Biden aimed to “reduce mining activity.”

Read in full https://cointelegraph.com/news/biden-budget-proposes-30-tax-on-crypto-mining-electricity-usage
1746  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for March on: March 09, 2023, 03:19:54 AM
This new information was shared by @PeckShieldAlert that 49k coins of bitcoin from wallets controlled by the American government were transferred to Coinbase. It might not be a speculation anymore if someone predicts that $25k for March is impossible if these coins will be dumped.



#PeckShieldAlert 49k $BTC (worth $1 Billion) from wallets related to US Government law enforcement seizures have been transferred to #Coinbase (~9.8k $BTC, worth $217M), bc1qf2…fsv (30k $BTC) & bc1qe7…rdg (9k $BTC) #SilkRoad

Source https://mobile.twitter.com/peckshieldalert/status/1633331891347820544
1747  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Is the Binance the next to bite the dust or FUD? on: March 09, 2023, 02:32:43 AM
I don't think it's completely baseless FUD, we all know they all know we all know they do the same things behind those desks, SBF was just too far out of his league, and lacked the same level of checks and balances.

Does this lead to Binance biting the dust? Nah. Does it mean they won't eventually bite the dust? I won't dismiss the possibility entirely, but it won't be because of this. If I'm wrong and it does? What doesn't kill Bitcoin only makes it stronger =)

I hope you are correct that this will not lead for Binance to be biting the dust because I reckon it will certainly make the cryptospace perceived as a comedy show by scammers and hustlers. This might discourage the institutional investors and encourage regulators to protect consumers by creating stricter regulations that will restrain innovation. Also, regulations are only made under an act that it was created to protect consumers. What it will do is harden the rulers' financial leadership. The cryptospace will not be ours anymore.

News update for everyone.



Short seller Marc Cohodes said his early scepticism of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and disgraced CEO Sam Bankman-Fried led him to short the company’s main bank, Silvergate.

As fears surrounding Silvergate’s finances clobber the stock price, the short seller has turned his sights – and bearish bets – to two companies that he claims are analogous: crypto exchange Binance and Signature Bank.

He colourfully explained his thinking about Signature to DL News: “They have major problems, and they have very similar issues to Silvergate. It’s not as exposed to crypto as Silvergate, but their loan book is terrible. And they have huge KYC and AML liability.”

”This is not rocket science,” Cohodes said. “Signature is next, Binance is next.”


Source https://www.dlnews.com/articles/people-culture/short-seller-marc-cohodes-shorts-signature-silvergate-binance-ftx/
1748  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions on: March 09, 2023, 01:52:50 AM
@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.

I thought it's about constant fighting for understanding between generations and between people in general, but, well, maybe it's because I'm living in the midst of the war for the last year I see fighting even in movies. Now I think it's both, and you are right too. Smiley


Was that the movie's storyline hehehe? What I saw immediately was the LGBTQ agenda and on a conservative Asian family hehe. The messaging has become stronger and it is being displayed everywhere. I am not against LGBTQ, however, the methods used by the creators of movies and television series are forcing it on us already. This is not good, I reckon.

In any case, you have made good bet. It appears that the Oscars voters have again chosen a happy movie this year.
1749  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 on: March 08, 2023, 04:33:23 AM
Derek Carr has joined the Saints after he left the Raiders. If I remember correctly, the Raiders wanted to trade him to the Saints in exchange for draft picks. Derek Carr scammed his own team hehehe. This might also open a chance for Lamar to the Raiders.

The draft begins on April 23. Why is this sport's offseason very long, the regular season and post very short?
1750  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [Updated] FTX on: March 08, 2023, 03:37:45 AM
If the bullrun would have continued for another two years, who knows how many billions more they would have embezzled.
Yep. If there is any positive thing about all this mess, its that it happened sooner than later because God knows how many more people would lose their money as FTX kept growing due their aggressive marketing, no withdrawal fees and other tactics to attract as many users as possible.



In other news, FTX confirms for the first time that 8.9 billion dollars of users money is missing so if there's anyone still hoping that they will ever see their money back, think again.

A recent report from the Wall Street Journal pointed out that $8.9 billion worth of customer funds have been unaccounted for and therefore missing.

This is the first time the exchange has revealed a number pertaining to the fund deficiency. The exchange has reportedly pinned down around $2.7 billion in customer assets, relative to $11.6 billion of the balance outstanding on customer accounts. The estimated value of FTX’s assets and liabilities is based on asset prices in November 2022, when the firm filed for bankruptcy.

Alameda Research had borrowed around $9.3 billion from customer accounts before bankruptcy. Thus, the current $8.9 billion hole can be attributed to Alameda Research. FTX did not clarify if the funds were borrowed with or without customer consent. According to a financial update filed, FTX’s sister company only had around $475 million in cash in its accounts as of Jan. 31.

Thus, at this stage, it cannot be anticipated how much compensation affected customers would receive, even though the exchange has tracked down $2.7 billion. However, around $1.5 billion of that said amount includes illiquid crypto assets like FTX’s token, FTT

There might be other types scams that might have occured. They might also sometimes be done on their own services similar to this hedgefund.

It is speculated that the founder of Multicoin capital has been selling his own cryptocoins and tokens to the hedgefund before the bubble pop of the bull market.



Multicoin Capital’s hedge fund lost 91.4% in 2022, according to a copy of the firm’s annual investor letter viewed by CoinDesk.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/04/multicoin-capitals-hedge-fund-lost-914-last-year-investor-letter-reveals/

That Multicoin Capital’s hedge fund news goes to show one of the scariest aspects of "crypto-space": The interdependence of many non-decentralized coins / tokens and platforms. If one fails, it will create a snowball effect that's hard to stop.
I think truely decentralized coins (there's just a handful, if at all), most and foremost Bitcoin, are less vulnurable towards these influences, however still take a hit when a big ship things, such as FTX.
Especially stablecoins - if they were to fail in a similar way as FTX - could bring down even Bitcoin by quite a bit for several months, up to a few years, worst case scenario.

You are comparing different things. The founder Kyle Salami can also have bitcoin and ethereum which he also dumped on his own hedgefund Multicoin Capital. Also, this might not only be happening in organizations similar to hedgefunds. Development teams of different Defi projects might also be dumping their own stake from the project to hold in the project's treasury.
1751  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Is the Binance the next to bite the dust or FUD? on: March 08, 2023, 02:29:48 AM
@Darker45. I disagree that we should always be avoiding all centralized exchanges to trade, buy or sell our coins. What we clearly need is an honest and trustworthy exchange where everyone can feel safe. I reckon regulations might help with this but we do not want the type of regulations that the regulators want to impose on the cryptospace. This is a difficult situation.

In any case, if Binance does not bite the dust, I would not be shocked. They might be good in avoiding the law very much similar to Tether, Bitfinex, Ifinex hehehe.
1752  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: March 07, 2023, 04:38:29 AM
^ Yes, Eddie Hearn wanted a Bivol vs Beterbiev and so is Bob Arum, so let's see how they are going to work it out.

Its just for now it's complicated as Bivol is targeting Canelo as well, either 168 or 175 lbs. And then Callum Smith is also coming into the horizon and also looking for a big payday against Beterbiev. We wait how the Smith vs Stepien result will be though, if he wins maybe Bivol is willing to fight him instead of waiting for Bivol.
Time is running out on Beterbiev though, I mean he is not getting any younger, if in two years, he didn't get Bivol it might be too late when the are going to face in the future and it might not be the fight that we are expecting for.

And so we might not see the unification fight in my opinion.

And they will have to go on their separate fight, Bivol vs Buatsi, Beterbiev vs Smith.

True, Beterbiev should not waste any more time as his power may slowly decline once he turns 40. I would like to see him have one more fight before a unification bout with Bivol, and after that, he can think about retiring if he fails. Speaking of Bivol, when do you think Canelo will have his rematch with Bivol?

According to some news articles Bivol wants to unify the championships in his own division first before a rematch against Canelo. However, it appears Beterbiev does not want to fight Bivol. There are also other articles that Bivol vs. Beterbiev might occur on June.

My speculation is if Bivol cannot fight Beterbiev, he might be forced to accept a money deal for a rematch against Canelo on September.
1753  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Tank Davis vs. Ryan Garcia betting and discussion (May, 2023) on: March 07, 2023, 03:26:23 AM
Mike Tyson made his prediction for this fight hehe. He is on Tank Davis, however, he also told everyone that this will be a good fight. Does this imply that King Ry has a chance more than everyone's predictions? I quite certainly speculate that this fight might show that King Ry is better than what was expected from him.



While in Saudi Arabia for the Paul Vs. Fury fight, Tyson had a quick interview with Fight Hub TV, discussing upcoming bouts in the sport. Tyson discussed the lightweight bout and said, “It’s going to be a Good fight.” The ‘Baddest Man on the Planet’ expects a thrilling fight between these two lightweight boxers.

Tyson further went on to choose his side for the fight. When asked who he thinks will win the fight, Tyson responded, “I gotta say Tank, but it’s going to be a good fight“


Source https://www.essentiallysports.com/boxing-news-mike-tysons-brutal-prediction-for-ryan-garcia-vs-gervonta-davis/
1754  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Stephen Fulton vs. Naoya Inoue - WBC and WBO 122 lbs bout - May on: March 07, 2023, 02:30:39 AM
That's right, Inoue is not your ordinary boxer who's is easy to predict and evident to see his limits. Currently, there's no boxer that managed to unlock Inoue's weakness and Donaire was the only boxer who actually gave him a good toe-to-toe fight but even that fight wasn't enough to show his weakness and up until now, it's still a mystery and it will be an expensive move by any boxer just to know what is it.

For weakness of Inoue to unfold, he just needs to fight a better boxer than he is.  He may be dominated the bantamweight division, but I do not think that he will do the same in the super bantamweight.  Super Bantamweight is a different division and there are several known boxers that can possibly defeat Inoue in this division.  The boxer in this division have heavier punches and more resistance to blows or punches, and since Inoue is taking a shortcut, he probably doesn't know the extent of the punching power of this division.

I very much agree, however, this is what the sport of boxing is supposed to be. The best boxers should challenge the other best boxers in another weight division or in their present weight division. This will bring the sport forward again and not need to become a comedy show to get more attention similar to Jake Paul. Fulton vs. Inoue, Tank vs. King Ry and Haney vs. Lomanchenko are good fights for the fans and the sport.
1755  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions on: March 07, 2023, 01:57:47 AM
@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.
1756  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price guess for March on: March 06, 2023, 03:29:00 AM
I think there will be real difficulties in March for bitcoin.  Past data has largely not supported bitcoin's strong upside move but there were exceptional years like March (2021) and March (2022) when bitcoin had an impressive green wick.  so maybe bitcoin will hold this scenario.  March 14 (US CPI announcement) and March 23 (Fed announced interest rate adjustment) are events that can be of great interest and are likely to affect the likely scenarios.

Many predict the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.5% instead of 0.25% as previously predicted because the recent indicators have not been as expected and showed that inflation is returning. But I believe interest rates won't affect bitcoin too much anymore, I remember the last Fed rate hike in 2002 also didn't cause bitcoin price movement. But this is not good for the global economy and will make it difficult for bitcoin to do well this year. I don't know if this news will affect bitcoin but I still believe bitcoin will hit $25k this month.

I speculate that this Binance fud will be the cause of bitcoin's difficulty of pumping to more than $25k. It presently has the attention of American senators from both the Republican and the Democratic party. This might imply the summoning of Binance employees in America for questioning and there might be a crackdown on binance.us.

There is also a rumor that the SEC has sent wells notices to many founders and development teams of altcoin and Defi projects.



US Senators representing both Democrats and Republicans are demanding that Binance and Binance.US provide a detailed accounting of their finances and efforts to maintain regulatory compliance, according to a letter signed by Senators Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen and Roger Marshall.

The senators’ letter cited “investigations into criminal sanctions evasion, money laundering conspiracy, unlicensed money transmission, questions about its financial health, and increased scrutiny over its intentionally ‘opaque corporate structure.'"


Source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/binance-accused-of-illegal-activity-by-us-senators-warren-van-hollen-marshall
1757  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [Updated] FTX on: March 06, 2023, 02:20:20 AM
If the bullrun would have continued for another two years, who knows how many billions more they would have embezzled.
Yep. If there is any positive thing about all this mess, its that it happened sooner than later because God knows how many more people would lose their money as FTX kept growing due their aggressive marketing, no withdrawal fees and other tactics to attract as many users as possible.



In other news, FTX confirms for the first time that 8.9 billion dollars of users money is missing so if there's anyone still hoping that they will ever see their money back, think again.

A recent report from the Wall Street Journal pointed out that $8.9 billion worth of customer funds have been unaccounted for and therefore missing.

This is the first time the exchange has revealed a number pertaining to the fund deficiency. The exchange has reportedly pinned down around $2.7 billion in customer assets, relative to $11.6 billion of the balance outstanding on customer accounts. The estimated value of FTX’s assets and liabilities is based on asset prices in November 2022, when the firm filed for bankruptcy.

Alameda Research had borrowed around $9.3 billion from customer accounts before bankruptcy. Thus, the current $8.9 billion hole can be attributed to Alameda Research. FTX did not clarify if the funds were borrowed with or without customer consent. According to a financial update filed, FTX’s sister company only had around $475 million in cash in its accounts as of Jan. 31.

Thus, at this stage, it cannot be anticipated how much compensation affected customers would receive, even though the exchange has tracked down $2.7 billion. However, around $1.5 billion of that said amount includes illiquid crypto assets like FTX’s token, FTT

There might be other types scams that might have occured. They might also sometimes be done on their own services similar to this hedgefund.

It is speculated that the founder of Multicoin capital has been selling his own cryptocoins and tokens to the hedgefund before the bubble pop of the bull market.



Multicoin Capital’s hedge fund lost 91.4% in 2022, according to a copy of the firm’s annual investor letter viewed by CoinDesk.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/04/multicoin-capitals-hedge-fund-lost-914-last-year-investor-letter-reveals/
1758  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Is the Binance the next to bite the dust or FUD? on: March 06, 2023, 01:38:06 AM
News update.

There is nothing shocking about this news, however, it can add to the argument that it might be the next of th biggest exchanges to bite the dust. Binance might also be an entertaining example of what centralized exchanges presently need to do to continue their service under strict regulations and under threat of a crackdown hhehehe.



Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, developed a plan to avoid the threat of prosecution by U.S. authorities as it started an American entity in 2019, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

Any lawsuit from U.S. regulators, who had signaled a coming crackdown on unregulated offshore crypto players, would be like "nuclear fall out" for Binance's business and its officers, the WSJ said, citing a Binance executive's warning to colleagues in a 2019 private chat.

The report is based on messages and documents from 2018 to 2020 reviewed by The Wall Street Journal as well as interviews with former employees.


Source https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-execs-texts-documents-show-plan-avoid-us-scrutiny-wsj-2023-03-05/
1759  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance - where is it located? on: March 06, 2023, 12:54:42 AM
~snip~

I also remember the interview. If I remember it correctly, he also implied that Binance smartchain will very much be a big part of Binance's progression to become a more decentralized exchange where their jurisdiction might be will not be very important.

I honestly found it interesting at first that a company operating all over the world doesn't have headquarters. They're like a digital nomad. When I first read about Binance's unique structure many years ago, around the time it started growing big, I was kind of amazed that even employees are like CIA operatives, working in the shadows, even anonymously.

But then I realized later on that there are implications that make it actually risky for clients. I don't even care about tax responsibilities. I'm thinking of the company's accountability to its customers.

I reckon we also have to consider that the interview was made before 2018. I am not certain on the correct year, however, the cryptospace community was very different before when everyone encouraged decentralization. Presently the community wants regulation and regulators to enter the cryptospace because we were tricked to think that it will be safer to invest. It might also be because we were tricked to think that our coins will pump. I shake my head on this because the regulators do not care for our safety or if our coins will pump. They only want to control everything.
1760  Economy / Gambling / Re: Cloudbet | Bitcoin Casino & Sportsbook | The No.1 Bitcoin Gambling Site on: March 05, 2023, 07:43:04 AM

and that is usually the case with licensed online casinos. so that when you win big and want to withdraw all the winning funds, the platform has the right to request KYC from these customers as a condition that must be carried out to be able to withdraw these funds.
it's all because the casino platform is licensed and subject to regulations that have been in accordance with the agreement from the beginning with the licensing company.
so for me, if it's true that you get a big win and want to withdraw it but are asked to do KYC, I'll do that. because it is just one way to comply with the rules and to be able to withdraw large funds from our account.

If you win a large sum in an unlicensed casino, then no one will pay you anything. Sometimes it is easier for a casino to create a new website than to pay large winnings to players.

I agree that it might be cheaper to create a new casino than to pay millions of dollars of winnings to a single bettor who has gotten lucky. However, licensed or unlicensed, it is not easier to convince people to deposit their money and play in your new casino. You need to prove that it is trustworthy, safe and honest. This is very hard and it might be easier to buy a licensed casino that is known already.
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