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1781  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 06:16:48 PM
Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.


wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.

But holding longs at rates from 28% to 150%+ is expensive as hell. How could anyone have done this in a 5 month bear market. It doesn't add up for me.

Im not suggesting the same people are holding those loans as they auto close after 30 days. Just that that happens, especially with BTC as its so cheap to borrow.
1782  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 06:11:52 PM
Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.


wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.
1783  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 05:52:49 PM
Some (Chessnut?) (Rpetilia) is deleting a lot of their posts in this thread.

The incredible shrinking bear thread.

Lol cant you see deleted posts on the mirror'd version of this site ?
1784  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 05:43:16 PM
Just enjoying the ride on this one.

Is there any news or anything?

Anything actually come of yesterday ?
1785  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: MRO Monero trading thread and OTC xchg (bid 100 ask 110 last 115) on: May 11, 2014, 03:18:20 PM
An exchange is underway and being tested that everyone will enjoy. Its a brand new coin it doesn't need to be listed straight away on mint pal et al.
1786  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2014, 12:08:44 PM
ok so let me guess how this might play out:

1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact)
2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want)
3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price.
4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens.
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.


Maybe if they're running fractional reserve there's even less coins in Chinese hands lol. Now that would be funny. I'd call this a pretty positive weekend absent any new news in the next hour or so. Even at this point a $27 price rise and no super fud from China is a good thing.
1787  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2014, 10:45:58 PM
Slight rally mode engaged. Randomly some volume out of nowhere.
1788  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][MRO] Monero - Anonymous Currency Based on Ring Signatures on: May 10, 2014, 10:18:15 PM
Giveaway!

GreekBitcoin has "generously" (heh) donated 100 MRO for a giveaway fund.

I will be giving away MRO as follows:

Newbie or Brand New created on or after December 15, 2013: 0
Anyone with scammer tag: 0
Newbie or Brand New created before December 15, 2013: 1
Jr Member: 2
Member: 4
Full Member: 5
Sr Member: 6
Hero Member: 7
Hero Member with extra tag (VIP, Donator, Staff, etc. -- scammer does not count): 8

To qualify you must download and install the MRO wallet, and then PM me your MRO address with subject "Giveaway request."

Do not reply or post to the thread asking for a giveaway or you will not only not get a giveaway but you will be banned from receiving any giveaway administered by me now or in the future

Giveaway limited to available funds. I will post when the fund is empty.

Thats nice of you always good to share the wealth  Grin

I'm alright for getting a couple of extra MRO and I would implore people who have a few coins to let others who don't get a few.
1789  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bounty for open source ByteCoin/Monero pool on: May 10, 2014, 10:07:18 PM
I agree too. Both for moral reason and because more pool means less centralization.

You can have more pools even with only one open source implementation Wink

I agree they should share the bounty, if they are equal. However if one is clearly better than the other and will obviously be the one used then I do think that person should get a larger share.
1790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2014, 10:05:31 PM
Some of you are seriously cheering for a necro of mtgox?

Just know that you'll deserve any and all of the abuse you're going to get if that piece of shit exchange gets a second chance.



Yep, just why I don't get. Just take your 20% and let it die. Open a criminal investigation and find out what actually happened and close the case.

You are living in a dreamspark (oh wait?) if you believe that there is going to be any meaningful criminal investigation.

Didn't say it would happen, just that is clearly exactly what should be happening, even if it doesn't its still the course of action that should be being taken.
1791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2014, 08:24:48 PM
Some of you are seriously cheering for a necro of mtgox?

Just know that you'll deserve any and all of the abuse you're going to get if that piece of shit exchange gets a second chance.



Yep, just why I don't get. Just take your 20% and let it die. Open a criminal investigation and find out what actually happened and close the case.
1792  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 03:57:42 PM
we appear to be setting up for another leg up.

i'm scared someone hold me.

Its okay, you've been here before, I know its been a while but try to remember all that you learnt.

Better ?  Grin
1793  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 03:53:55 PM

The 3d MACD has moved into green (if only slightly) on most exchanges and the 1w is backing off... I'm quite positive.

I am NOT sure what any of this means, either... but the 3d has been pretty solidly green, and even the 1 week is turning into a green in recent hours.



The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...


I was referring to the color of the candle - rather than the crossing of the lines.  I understand that the crossing of the lines is a much more delayed occurrence - with a need for several green candles before the lines cross.

Im not sure I see what your saying. This is the 1w chart...



How is the latest MACD candle green? They have to cross for that to happen.
1794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 03:43:09 PM
sshhh no ones long in China in bear land.
1795  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 03:18:48 PM
Who's the sales person?

The people who say that bitcoin will be worth at least 5'000 USD by next year.  Those who claim it will preotect your money from inflation, bank haircuts, taxes, etc.  Those who still claims that the price can only increase since there is only a fixed number of bitcoins. Do I need to point out examples? (Not long ago the WSJ reported on some Argentinian woman who said 1'000'000 USD/BTC.

People say all sorts of things are going to rise in value quick buy now. Gold, property etc etc. Does that make the people who put their money into that without doing their due research any less of a fool?

Bitcoin can do all of those things.

IF demand for Bitcoin increases and their is a fixed supply they will become more valuable you can say the same for gold...

Great lets tar everyone with the same brush because of what some women in Argentina said. How ignorant that you want to stereotype all bitcoiners because there are those that are trying to make their stash worth more... How educated and objective a view.

Why is there this idea with you that people have been mislead and sold something by someone in particular ?
Because they were?  

Thats not the question I asked you. Show me some proof of someone being misold bitcoin on the pretence that it is guranteed to go up in value thats not something a randomer on the internet said.

Note: and even someone saying BTC could be worth $100k in the future isn't miselling them as how do you know it won't?

In the fiat world scams are bought into all the time do we really need to start metioned Maddof et al? Thats what you call being robbed of your life savings not investing in a brand new BETA technology and then moaning that its lost value because you listened to some guy on the internet instead of making your own decision. These fiat financial scams and frauds genuinely rob people of their lifes work and do genuinely sing promises of high returns.
Madoff went to jail and his name is rightly mentioned all the time when discussing scams.  Why shouldn't the bitcoin Madoffs go to jail too?

Misleading marketing is misleading marketing, it does not matter whether it was on a blog, through an YouTube video, or printed on glossy paper.

Um they should, again thats not an issue with Bitcoin itself.

This is the crux really isn't it. Wheres the misleading part? If you were around in May last year you would have been saying ha all the people who bought at $266 were mislead and misold should go to jail etc and then look 6 months later you would be eating your hat.

Plus if you allow yourself to beleive that BTC is going straight to $1mm GURANTEEED (which is the only time misselling matters, just saying they COULD isn't miselling) your a fool.



The thing that annoys me most with your conjecture is that you speak as though everyone whos in BTC right now bought $1200 coins. Thats just not the case the majority of people are well above their initial investment and the rest of them are likely down no where near 60%.  

The early bitcoin investors who later sold some of their holdings made huge profits at the expense of the later entrants.  That is what happens in any pyramid or Ponzi too, including Madoffs.  It does not make the thing a sound investment: since bitcoins pay no dividends, the expected gain for the average investor, in the long run, is negative.

Same for gold then?

You have to distinguish between investment to have a share of BTC and an investment to later sell for fiat profits. In the former the $ value doesn't matter.

Believe it or not, in the specualtion forum the majority are trying to do the later but only to have more of the former. If you were to spend time speaking to people in other areas you may find that not the case.

A fool and his money are soon parted and if somebody invests in a volatile asset that they can see with their own eyes has been so volatile and then moan that it goes down instead of up they are a fool.

If someone borrows $50,000 off friends and family to invest in a ridculously volatile asset then they are a fool.

If someone left their Bitcoins with a third party service then they are a fool.

If someone invests more than they are willing to lose they are a fool.

Dont you see where this is going ?
Er... anyone who invests in bitcoin is a fool?  Wink
Guess again. Anyone who invests in anything while doing those things is a fool.

I take it you advocate boiler room pump and dumps then that leave people with low single digit %'s of what they were conned into investing for promises of high returns.
Quite the opposite, I just wish that the bitcoin boiler room be treated like any other boiler room.

Thats great, I implor you to effect change and be active in the acheivment of this goal. But go after the services and  campaign for better regulation and punishments if thats what you see the problem as being.

I dont see you denouncing fiat currency everytime there is an unsolved scam within world.

Your issues are with the scammers surrounding bitcoin tackle them then. The fact is you only perceive there to be a high % of scams because this is a small community and this forum is an oppurtunity to air everything that happens within the BTC world therefore you always hear about the scams if you come here and read the board.

If there was a fiat forum with a small community of fiat users you would find the same.





1796  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 02:52:48 PM
The 1w MACD is no where near crossing...
1797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 02:35:28 PM
Bulls be like haha no one cares about China. Moon.

Bears be like just the last pump before the single digit dump.
1798  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 02:08:41 PM
How can you lose your savings if it didnt go to 0 ? The very worst you could do is lose 60%
That wasn't meant literally, of course.  Losing 60% of all you own is bad enough, don't you think?

But you CAN lose all of your life savings if you left the bitcoins in MtGOX, invested in Neo & Bee, or any of the other zillion bitcoin scams. (The first time I heard of bitcoin was when Rick Falkvinge tweeted that he was investing all his savings in bitcoin. Guess where he left them.  Fortunately for him he managed to get part of them out in time.)

You can also invest your 50'000$ of savings plus 50'000$ borrowed from relatives, friends and banks.  (You can bet that many people did that.  If the salesman says that for sure BTC will be worth 1'000'000$ in a few years...)

This idea that the government needs to protect you from your own investment decisions is comical.
It is funny, but one of the things that people expect the government to do is to protect them from scammers who try to sell unsound financial instruments with misleading promises.  That is why there are things like the SEC and consumer protection laws.  And that seems to be the reason why many bitcoin businesses catering primarily to US citizens are based in Panama or other unlikely countries.

Personally I think it is a good thing that a government does that to a certain extent, if it would not we would all be at the mercy of the gods (1%'ers).

LOL cause the government aren't part of the 1%'s

EDIT: just noticed someone said the same thing pretty much. Point still stands.

Dont you see Jorge advocates the fiat scams that go on all around that are legal thanks to a corrupt government but spends his time bashing on a beta project that anyone with an iota of common sense knows could result in total losses.
1799  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 02:07:45 PM
How can you lose your savings if it didnt go to 0 ? The very worst you could do is lose 60%
That wasn't meant literally, of course.  Losing 60% of all you own is bad enough, don't you think?

But you CAN lose all of your life savings if you left the bitcoins in MtGOX, invested in Neo & Bee, or any of the other zillion bitcoin scams. (The first time I heard of bitcoin was when Rick Falkvinge tweeted that he was investing all his savings in bitcoin. Guess where he left them.  Fortunately for him he managed to get part of them out in time.)

You can also invest your 50'000$ of savings plus 50'000$ borrowed from relatives, friends and banks.  (You can bet that many people did that.  If the salesman says that for sure BTC will be worth 1'000'000$ in a few years...)

This idea that the government needs to protect you from your own investment decisions is comical.
It is funny, but one of the things that people expect the government to do is to protect them from scammers who try to sell unsound financial instruments with misleading promises.  That is why there are things like the SEC and consumer protection laws.  And that seems to be the reason why many bitcoin businesses catering primarily to US citizens are based in Panama or other unlikely countries.

Who's the sales person? Why is there this idea with you that people have been mislead and sold something by someone in particular ? In the fiat world scams are bought into all the time do we really need to start metioned Maddof et al ? Thats what you call being robbed of your life savings not investing in a brand new BETA technology and then moaning that its lost value because you listened to some guy on the internet instead of making your own decision. These fiat financial scams and frauds genuinely rob people of their lifes work and do genuinely sing promises of high returns.

The thing that annoys me most with your conjecture is that you speak as though everyone whos in BTC right now bought $1200 coins. Thats just not the case the majority of people are well above their initial investment and the rest of them are likely down no where near 60%. 

A fool and his money are soon parted and if somebody invests in a volatile asset that they can see with their own eyes has been so volatile and then moan that it goes down instead of up they are a fool.

If someone borrows $50,000 off freinds and family to invest in a ridculously volatile asset then they are a fool.

If someone left their Bitcoins with a third party service then they are a fool.

If someone invests more than they are willing to lose they are a fool.

Dont you see where this is going ?

I take it you advocate boiler room pump and dumps then that leave people with low single digit %'s of what they were conned into investing for promises of high returns.

1800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 01:17:40 PM
Probably but also likely to be $400 higher  Grin
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