Personally, it seems to me that Majormax tends to describe (perhaps dramatically) bitcoin's upwards resistance points as much stronger than they are..
That's because, in an overall Bull trend the upper resistance points are of most importance to determining the rate of progress. It's just my humble opinion, and there are plenty of those on this forum ! The disagreement with my own assertions gives me far more useful information that any passive agreement, same as any argument/debate. Thats why I might appear provocative. It's never personal ! |
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By the way, I am not sure about what you mean by "Todd", and I looked it up on google, which does not cause me much clarity... the meaning was "sly like a fox" or something like that?
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Sorry to have confused you ! I was just being a bit lighthearted. The quote , possibly a bit obscure, but I thought some traders would recognise it, is Louis Winthorpe (Dan Ackroyd) in Trading Places. I felt it fitted the mood. Just to be sure, I do not trade myself now. I have done enough of that in my career, successfully, with other instruments than Crypto, but it takes a heavy psychological toll, and I don't want that any more. I sometimes quote technical info from a traders perspective just for illustration. BTW, I reckon about 40% of my career trades were mistakes and I let go of the need to be right some time ago, so I am certainly no prophet. You must know I read your posts with interest and respect, because I recognise the amount of thought and research you put in. I will not knowingly snipe at anyone, so some of my apparent sarcasm will be accidental. |
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We believe that Bitcoin can disconnect from other risk assets and will come out of this crisis very positively. Bitcoin has unparalleled features such as digital scarcity, making it an alternative to the current monetary system for many. A crisis of this magnitude can be the catalyst for Bitcoin to take the forefront of the macroeconomic landscape.
Bitcoin is indeed unique in the market, but from time to time we can clearly see the correlation between it with gold, stocks or oil. The proclamation of a pandemic affected everyone, and the BTC with a terribly sharp decline was no exception. Yet such declines are part of a dynamic market, and few are the ones that just hold on when everything collapses, most still try to mitigate the damage and sell before it hits bottom. In relation to the crisis that started in 2008 and this one that started this year I personally look at Bitcoin as something that arose at the beginning of a recession, managed to build a certain reputation and achieve a certain level of development, and in the next recession it should actually show its strength. There is a saying "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger", so I believe Bitcoin will come out of this economic collapse even stronger. The Bitcoin halving will take place within a week. A long-awaited event that takes place every four years. This means that Bitcoin miners will halve their reward for securing the network. It ensures that miners have fewer Bitcoins available to cover their costs. This reduces the long-term downward pressure on prices. In the short term, this event can bring volatility to the market. However, for us as an investor with a long-term horizon, the price action is irrelevant in the short term.
Although halving in the past has proven to be a very strong element in terms of long-term impact on price, there are a lot of those who are already talking about the pre-halving effect in terms of current price growth and the beginning of a new big bull-run. Although the pre-halving FOMO should not be completely ignored, I still think that it does not play a major role in increasing the price we are seeing now. The crypto market is recovering and returning to the same positions where it was some 2 months ago, and after halving we will see in which direction it will move. All true: Put quite simply BTC is most definitely more mature than at the last halving/last bear market or whatever historical comparison is to be made. Therefore it will behave differently. ergo: all historical comparisons are flawed in some way. |
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Now let's see if this quickly retraces and if bears start piling on shorts. Either (or both) will give us some indication of where sentiment is at, and whether we can expect more carnage.
Yes. This is not now a point to put on new positions, possibly close out if you shorted from ~9900, which was the low risk trade. The range from 6500 to 10000 has reinforced itself again, and the bearish nature of 10k rejection should make potential longs cautious. Looking at fundamentals, the big shakeout of miners after halving is going to hit hashrate (as always) and it remains to be seen how long liquidations overhang the market. Always the caveat that BTC is different from other markets, but its price sure is behaving much more like an established commodity nowadays. |
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10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.
Oh my!!!! Good luck with that. You will likely need it. I don't doubt that there is a decent amount of incentive for profit taking at these levels; however, there still seems to be little to no convincing narrative suggesting that there is a need for down before up. Its not luck (Todd). Profit already. Observing 8600 Now its a better point to go long, or at least close the short, being below the (weak) resistance at 9000. |
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I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.
What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it? Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this. It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out. I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood. My thoughts exactly. Even with price moving 1K higher than my closed longs, I'm also expecting another shakeout as ia the nature of volitile crypto markets. Price is bullish but still facing strong resistance is the main concern right now. Reaching 10K makes me more curious about 8K support level that will now be a 20% pull-back if occurs, instead of being rejected by 9K area as I had previously expected (and got tapped out shorting with a fortunately tight stop loss). But either way, I also prefer buying into capitulation in bull trends than breakouts, as there's a lot more gain to be had for starters. Buy red sell green. You obviously have some experience trading different markets. Safer trades are always far better long-term than 'needing to be right' trades. The key to buying capitulation is , how do you tell when the bull trend is no longer a bull (ie it's a bear trend) ? In BTC that tends to be the primary act of faith : that there is always an underlying bull trend. If you have any doubt of that at all, buying the breakout is safer. |
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I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.
What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it? Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this. It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out. I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood. Sensible move. In that context, the next downwave could see sub 7000 again, so there is a lot of meat for shorters. However, shorting BTC is an exceptionally hazardous trade, so waiting for long entry is the safe bet. Putting it from the other side of the coin, 10k is one of the worst possible levels to buy at this time . That remains so 'until its not' , at which point shorts get slaughtered, but I don't think we are there yet. |
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New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.
Yes.. That has been the case for 3-6 months. 10500 was rejected twice and now forms the toughest resistance point. 10000 is also in the process of testing, and if it is rejected, then the bearish scenario is intact for some time. 10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see. |
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How probably is for the Bitcoin to do the opposite of what the public expects, and don't crash with the stocks, when they do crash?
We're in a phase where the world is looking for confidence, and there isn't a lot to be found. I see no reason why BTC would be any more confident in the face of a global shit than stocks. This isn't one economy wrecking itself, it's everyone everywhere. That means pensions faltering, jobs going, taxes rising. Yep, nothing really escapes big economic contractions. Some assets fare better than others, but ultimately they all face the same downward pressures, especially in this dollar debt-inflated economy. Now, ranting aside, I would expect the stock market to crash pretty soon, or at least suffer a lot, for a long time. Does it mean Bitcoin has to do the same, just because it correlates to stocks..? I am trying to find reasons why it shouldn't, but the only one coming to my mind is - as everyone expects Bitcoin to follow stocks, maybe it wouldn't follow them just because of that?
BTC will probably diverge bullishly at some point, but my guess is it won't be until after the mid-term economic picture becomes clearer. A V-shaped recovery is out of the question now, but depression and stagflation are both on the table. Each would have very different outcomes for BTC. Don't know about the stock market : The game there is not really open to free trade so much, being led by derivatives HFT. However, tend to agree on BTC. It should break out at some point, but this is not it, not yet a while. The momentum is far too sudden. There is very strong overhead resistance at 13500, 10500, and now this spike looks like it could create another in the 9000's, which would be very bearish. Only a sustained move above 10500 would be a real positive, but that might be some time away. The upcoming halving is creating FOMO, and that will be over very soon. |
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Let the winner come Forward, will pay tomorrow  not at home atm Cheers One day to go ? 'closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET' |
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This is most crazy quarter price guessing championship so far and might be most crazy ever. In January it looked like my $9500 will be way way to low. Bitcoin price almost got there and the end of quarter was still two long months closer to the halving. Mid February half way there price peaked and slowly started declining. All looked well then. First week of March we were still in the $9000 range. Then a sharp decline started and ended at sub $5000. Things was way out of the plan then. All hope was lost. Then next two weeks price started grow again. Hope started shining again. Now less then a week to go we are very far from $9500, but on the other hand it can still happen. It would be in the line of this crazy Bitcoin quarter.
I predicted ~$9,300 so I'm in the same spot as you - first I though "damn, now that the price is at $10,000 it will probably get to $15,000 on April 1st," - then when the price dropped to $8,000 I thought I have a good chance if it would recover a bit, but now coronavirus wrecked all my chances. I wonder what was the thinking of people who predicted $6,000 range - did they though the market will turn bearish before the halvning because of some failed expectations or due to pure speculation? Answer : For me, the Coronavirus is not relevant to the price. The price was going to be attracted to 6400 anyway , its the biggest support level. I was stating it in my posts again and again for months. That's why I chose a price point just above 6400. Look at it this way ; The stock market was due for a big break down. Huge numbers of commentators discussed it for months, years. The coronavirus gets the blame, but it was just the trigger. Could have been something else that took the blame, even if that trigger was far more minor. The magnitude of the pandemic caused stock prices, and BTC to overshoot on the downside, and now the prices are stabilizing. |
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I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.
The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.
Not happy to say so, but I tend to agree. Not because BTC is definitely broken, but because there is a fair probability the world is in a strong deflation, despite govt interventions. ( the next bit copied from my post on WO thread) I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'. Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger. The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to implement. |
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Of course, I have hereby committed a common fallacy: Using the dollar as the measure of Bitcoin’s value. If we soon see the effects of rapid dollar inflation (as seems a real possibility), then Bitcoin may indeed soon hit $1,000,000, without gaining any purchase power—just because the dollar crashed, and a $100 bill now buys a loaf of bread (if that). Hyperinflation could also quickly give us quadrillion-dollar Bitcoins, or whatever; but that would not mean much, if it may also signal the global breakdown of technological civilization, and thus, the loss of the Internet. A moderate amount of dollar inflation is also built into the rise since 2013: $50 in 2013 dollars would be worth significantly more today. Not >100x more! Firstly: Yes, inflation since 2013 doesn't account for BTC rise. The driver is success of adoption. Secondly: Suppose there is a deflation ? (the dollar increases in purchasing power). Maybe the drop in all asset values is signalling that future. I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'. Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger. The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to impliment. |
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The reason I think there could be an extended period at low levels is because the nascent bull market was broken by the shape of the move from 13.5k down to where it is now.
That might need another crypto winter to repair. Might kill off a few alts for good, though.
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In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.
Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA. Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves. |
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My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).
I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH. When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k. And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time. 10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle. I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ? Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this. |
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Now the lowest is 4400, how much next?
No floor here really. For all assets, the panic selling, raising cash at all costs is only at the beginning. Ignore the price. |
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If any any of you WOers consider selling just think: you HODLed during $20k peak, during $14k and $10k minipeaks. So why sell now?  Let's ride this thing down to 0 or get filthy rich. There is no 3rd option. Ride to 0. That's the spirit. If ppl actually use BTC as currency, they will continue. Hodlers may as well stop watching the price. Calculate your net worth at say, $100 per BTC, and just treat it as a small , highly speculative part of your investments. |
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... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.
O.k. Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.
I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.
Good thinking. The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date> |
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Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.
As above..and here 1 week 2500-5500 1 month 1500-6500 3 months 1200-10500 1 year 1200-13500 |
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