If you look at the bull/bear markets you get to be in a bad mood for 3-4 years at a time.  However, the converse is also true.

Maybe, but perhaps not soon. Price is now close to better support. It may take a lot of time around these levels, but at least there is the possibility to pause and stop the medium term downtrend.

Hardly guaranteed. There is a lot of uncertainty on a 2 year view, and it is one scenario that BTC may be experiencing slow death, but surely it is not possible to guarantee any particular outcome ?

What is the basis for your view that this is a long term downtrend ?

...and shorts are pretty hazardous, so I can see why you said 'low leverage'.  

It was somewhat expected... Where is the next support level below ?

Yes, that's an interesting irony.  Peter Schiff is and always has been, a well respected gold permabull cheerleader.  He will be seen to be correct now and again, but as far as he views BTC, it detracts from his main asset, and he will take every opportunity to talk the bear case.

Biases aside, that is a very bad long term chart (technically, having marked out a high  at 19500 , hard resistance at 13500 and then even more sharply at 10500 : 3 descending tops), as I said at the time. Any chartist worth their salt would be calling a long decline. If it was a stock, it would be a 'short to zero'.   

It is well established on this board that we ignore classic chart signals because BTC is 'different', but if Peter Schiff is to properly adhere to his own disciplines, he is consistent and correct.

Fair comment. It is the momentum of the move that is unusual.  If 10.5k is tested and broken soon, that is bullish, as with 13.5k.  Those levels were reached by strong upward momentum, so do make for higher hurdles.

No.  I would think a positive overshoot (to use that term ) would be making new highs , either above resistance, or ATH.

Yes, that is around the sort of timescale I had in mind. I am really just helping to manage expectations so that ppl are not too disappointed.

Firstly, we have accepted that BTC can behave anyway at all, but then it's pointless trying to make some sense of a chart. The WO board is purposeless if everyone is just hodling for ever.

I am saying that IF BTC were a stock/commodity/price in the standard investing world, then the price chart/fractals/shapes are saying x y and z. This actually seems to work for 90% of the time , but very occasionally, at extended time intervals, there is a sudden supra-normal move.

The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).

Assuming we ignore that analysis on a long (bull forever) view, my conclusion is that it will still be a more extended time before a challenge to the ATH. 1 to 2 years is my rough guess.  I know that is going contrary to the halvening theory, so it's a really contrarian call, and I guess I am comfortable being a vilified contrarian.

At least the current move is in a positive direction. It will be enough if the next swing low forms a new base above 7300.

If this is going to last, I would expect a consolidation through to end of year. Too early to call yet.

These sort of moves are unhealthy, especially without a proper base.  A slow grind up is the only way to sustain a move over the longer term.

Many posters will celebrate this sort of pump, only to have their hopes dashed again.

Of course, one should always look at the alternative : that this is the beginning of a long move up, but at this rate, that is a low probability.  A new exponential move that fails below 13500 would be very bearish. Only if 14k gets broken decisively, the outlook changes (with a new ath in sights)  That looks a very long way off atm.

Well TA worked for the last few months on BTC , much to many peoples surprise.

The failure at 13500 was an very obvious opening of a long bear phase. No bottom has been formed yet, so its still in a downtrend...

..unless you think that the developments in quantum computing are weighing on price, I would say it's a pure technical move.

You are correct that TA is useless, unless you are a medium term trader. 

That is the position that the majority of investors take. Confirmatory bias. You can see it in this board, you can see it everywhere.

In general investing, it always causes speculators large losses eventually. In BTC it has only been different because the long term trend was/is so exponetially strong.  Merely an act of faith to hodl. In that sense, all trading/walls/charts/opinions are merely a distraction while waiting for the next leg up. (You , among others, provide a lot of words and are a great distraction ! ).

I see my role as pointing out that nothing is 100% certain, even the survival of BTC.

I have been reading charts a very long time and they are not difficult to understand. IMO they do not definitively predict the future but do provide a reference to the probability scale (of which I know you are a fan).

Quite right..  Only the slow grind up can lead to another ATH.  Price is in a falling medium term trend atm.

Nothing is guaranteed. Probable.

Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.

In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.

Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak.  I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6  months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is)  , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.

On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH.  The danger I was going on and on about in  Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.

On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.

Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.

I don't like the look of that chart . The last 8 months is too similar to Aug 2017 to Feb 2018, and suggests a new leg down to sub 3k., rather than upside.

Better scrub that and try a more positive analysis.

That is the best way. Many of the most successful people had one really good plan, and stuck with it (the core of it at least). Trying to second-guess everything leads to stress, and you can actually out-think youself into failure.

There is no guarantee either way, but it is actually worse to be right long term and not be committed, than to be committed and be wrong.

Another way of looking at things, is that BTC price is a forward indicator. In that case, it is signalling a deflationary economic environment in the medium future (which would be very bad for the whole economy) but holders of the right assets will lose less.  Bond prices are also chiming with this possibility.  I must admit, I really don't like it , because inflation is on balance the less painful alternative ( or at least causes less shocks to the fabric of society).

That is one positive sign , yes.  But there are a lot of negatives. We will have to wait for more indicators, and see price activity.