This chart would suggest price is likely to stay around $4k (=/- 1k) until June 2020.

I would guess that is not a popular view. Most posters would refuse to believe it.

Keep expectations in check : that is the best advice.

This wave up is merely the mirror of the wave down from £6k a few months back. That was quick, with little support. It has not regained $6xxx yet. Even if it does soon, it is going to meet a lot of upside resistance there.

Best scenario would be to get above $6k, then retrace to around 5K and hold for a few months. A year end close above $4k is fine, above 5k would be good.

Wait and watch.

Alts are generally stronger than BTC on this rally.  That is actually good news because it is a change in phase. The bear phase of the last year or so may have changed.

Too early to call a bull phase, but the probabilities are a bit better than 3 months ago.

Spot on.  Time is as important as price.

The next vital level will be the low of the next drop.  Cannot yet see where the short term top and reverse will come in, but it will probably start within a few days.

The strongest scenario would be a drop in volatility over the next few weeks, followed by a small dump to test support.  $5-6k is realistic for year end, but that is a long way off and a lot of price action will go under the bridge in the meantime.

It is still early days .

I think it is just noise. The trading range has been tight for some time.   

It's bad for your health to follow the price too closely  !

Ah yes, I see it's in local boards.

Do we need 2 ?  Yours is the original, and always gets a lot of responses.

My opinions are all in my posts. Everything is opinion here of course.

Everything is just probabilities.

No, I am correct. I have a great track record . More experience of trading than most, but in many markets other than BTC.

Only a look at the chart.  Any evidence against it ?

That makes more sense than many of the charts posted recently.

Could be in that area, but I feel the peak will come later, and the rise be slower initially, because :

1. The waves are clearly getting longer  , and

2. The mania (and publicity) in the last parabolic peak was so great, it will take longer to dissipate.


So, the unpalatable news is, expect the peak around 2023, and don't be surprised if the price dawdles around $4k for another year. 30% chance of another leg down to $2xxx later this year. 30% chance of $5xxx at year end.

4165


June is closer than it seems.

You're right. A little bit of thought and most ppl realise.

That sort of thing has been going on forever , nearly always highway/motorway service stations (watches, designer clothes, luxury items, all with a story, either fake or not what they seem). There must be a few who fall for it to keep the scammers going.

Of course that is true.

There is always some risk of meaningful downside.

The 2018-2019 bear market might not be long enough to be complete yet, so I would say that the risk of significant downside is still relatively high, but diminishing with each passing month.

At a rough guess , the probabilities favour the bottom being in, but only just...perhaps 40% chance of a new low later this year.

Bear markets dont have to last 10 years.  

You can label it what you like, that's just semantics.

The correction/bear/downwave  will be proportionate to the bull phase. With BTC, it has always been longer in downwave than in upwave.  A study of the  charts reveals that quite clearly.

Way too early to predict a new bullphase this year. It is only a possibility, not a likelihood. Looking back from 2023 we might label it with hindsight.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256



$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.  My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.

Yes , concisely put.. it is as simple as that.  If you use logic and pattern recognition,  the log-scale 9 year chart shows a progression which is clear. As I have always said, a 2019/2020 low at approx $2000-$3000 is about right. Whether that low is in now, or whether there is a further drop will only be resolved with the passage of time . +/- a year or two or a thousand or two does not change the long term pattern.

May 2020 is only just over a year. You will manage. ...I would think the probability that we have seen the bottom is 50/50.  Another low around $2k is not the end of the world.

The hardest part is the waiting now.

Absolutely. You are the sort of hodler that predominates when the bottom is reached.

A drop to $2k now does not invalidate the whole premise of long term adoption.

In fact a drop of $1000 soon might at least finally turn sentiment. There are still a lot of weak hands that need to be removed.

That begs an interesting question with regard to rebalancing of investments.

For any investment, it should represent a minimum and maximum % of the portfolio. Sales and purchases rebalance when it gets outside the range. I would guess BTC s limits for an investor would be a lot wider than for conventional investments (example min 2%, max 50%) but the balancing would still apply.

Opinions will be interesting.