Agree. Saying that all along.

A couple of days of $40BN+ volume, and a spike low.

Doesnt matter where the low is, but ~$2000 feels about right (leaves a gap to the 2013 high of $1200).

Price/time relationship is not yet right either. 6 months to 2 years is a more proportional bear market.

The bear phase could end in 2 years, but now there is the danger of another crypto taking the lead in that time, so it is possible that we have seen the final high.


The best thing to do now is write off your holding, go away and do somthing else for a year or so.

Most people will rant and rage for a few more months, until they reach that conclusion.

Possible but unlikely. $10k maybe sometime in the next month. The ultimate low (sub $2000 ?) is not likely until 2019.

All conjecture of course, but I am basing my figure on a repeating long term pattern.

Getting there, but volume not high enough.

The capitulation wave would likely see record volume for a few days (~$30BN per day), and a spike low in one of those days.

I dont know what that price will be, but sub $2000 fits with the long term chart.

The answer will take some time to become clear. I would guess the market will shake out a lot more players this year. Unfortunately that means more falls and volatility, but it will ultimately be a positive.

Destination low is sub $1500. Thats the long term chart. Each long wave down ends just above the previous wave high, which in this case was $1200 in Dec 2013.

Already gone $19000 down to $6000, so over halfway there.

Best to get it over asap.

It is not always good to be on more exchanges. Always best to develop the tech before the market exposure.

(btw, you did it right)

It could always be the final fail, but that is a lower probability.

One thing which is almost certain is that the 'final fail' will come for most alt coins at some time. BTC can only really fail if something better is superceding it.

The /sarc tag was left out, but should have gone in the middle at some point. Exactly where it goes will remove the ambiguity. 

The key question to answer is : Are we now in a BTC Bear Market ? (we will assume for now that BTC is still in an adoption uptrend, but the Bear Market is a correction)

8 weeks is by no means long enough to complete a bear move. After a bull of 2-3 years, the full correction could be expected to be at least a year...and a decline of 85% would not be unusual.

Historical charts are clear. Price moves in long waves, ending in a parabolic move. We have just had that, and a decline from the peak of  over 60%,  so the parabolic peak could be in.

If the converse is true, then a new all time high should come within the next few months. A failed rally (lower peak) or a sideways move becomes more of a negative indicator as more time passes.

I would suggest being pragmatic and watching price action rather than fixing a view.

Better to sell at a 20% lower level rather than sell now and miss new ath. A move below $6000 would be a sell.

JayJuanGee:

Thanks for the interesting comments.

'Lost dominance' just means that alts have a larger share of market cap, therefore the capital flows that used to drive BTC price are changed in a meaningful way from the driving force they used to be (they have alternative places to go)....... That might or might not be a positive , but it could alter the repeating pattern of the long term chart in some way.

So I just used it as a caveat to say that the fractal nature of the long term chart could be interrupted now (either way)

The term dominance has always been used by Coinmarketcap so should not carry any bias.

I try to choose neutral terms, and it is always interesting to see how they are interpreted : a kind of a straw poll of sentiment.


You are quibbling I guess, but good quibbling often leads to novel ideas.  I read your post as finding negatives about BTC in my 'neutral' comments.

These are just semantics.  There are always different ways to see price moves. Most people start with a fixed view and interpret charts the way they need to.

Agree.  Difficult to call which one is correct without further price action.

The lost dominance (over alts) of BTC this time around also clouds the picture, but we have to make some educated guesses, and watch for confirmation.

Is that not the original bitaddress.org ? (address beginning 1 , as opposed to a Segwit address)

What is the difference in a CashAddress ?

A year or two more like. Bear markets last much longer than 2 months.

Low of ~$2000 on BTC.

That would simply be a regular continuation of the price waves since 2010.

It is more than that. Look at the  % decline from the peak..65% peak to trough... Still more than 50% even after rebound.  Relative weakness against most other Cryptos.

The market price movement tells all.

If the chart continues forming fractals as it has done since 2011, then  ~$2000 sometime in 2020. Could be plenty of big rallies in the downtrend however.

I said the same in Jan 2014, and the winter was  nearly 3 years.  It can easily happen again.

In fact I think it would be a positive development for long term adoption. Real-world development can continue, untroubled by excessive speculation.

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

I believe that staking is still providing a reward, only to the extent that transfers provide fees (which are burnt). Maybe there is no need for greater incentives anymore, whilst growth and development are ongoing.

The movement of speculative money may ensure that the network remains active enough.

This is one of the only POS coins to have reached its max-coins limit. Open wallets keep the network running .

Nobody knows what will happen, could still fail, but an interesting experiment.

Great point of view.

It (sort of) portrays Dash as the odd one out (rebel) among Cryptocurrency, at the same time as one of the most mainstream adopted.

Agree. I have deposited and withdrawn several times in the last few days, and there are some delays.

Where a withdrawal takes a user over the relevant limits (each coin is different)  it may be referred to manual processing : that can be a long process.