The alt coins must unravel before btc can go up. My prediction is we see dominance climb above 80%.
80%? That's a bold prediction. I'd say 70% will be quite maxxed, after it reaches the peak it will drop drastically, ergo fuelling the next (maybe the last) altcoin run. But after the next run most of the shitcoins will fade into history, as they should. Then daddy takes over for good with some kiddies running around. But you never know if and how they will grow up. There may possibly not be another altcoin run (just some failed rallies). It has been my view since Feb that we are in a bear market frame, and it would be unusual for that not to last at least a year or two. There is still lots of hope around, and price likes to flow down that river. Of course nobody can make clear predictions, but the logic seems to be that this is an altcoin extinction event, and the next bull phase will involve the main survivors. The large number of surviving zombie coins is diluting scarce buying power. Until the mass extinction is well under way (and that means getting down to only a few hundred alts) , it is unlikely that a proper bottom can be formed. ( just my own guess) I would be a buyer of just the strongest projects (maybe only BTC) when we get to less than 400 tokens/coins showing some trade on coinmarketcap. |
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LOL, how long before ETH goes in negative!! I know that whole market is affected but ETH is being affected the most % wise. I personally feel it is due to these fomo3d like games where few people are getting thousands of ETH and then they are dumping it on market. And maybe even some ICOs. Do you think there can be any other reason?
Well, for every one who is getting a lot of ETH there there is also some who are losing it. But you may be right, since the latters would probably be holders while the winnders would possibly be dumpers. Of course that is true. There are hundreds of ETH holders with large amounts whose cost level is $1 to $10. If they feel like cashing out a bit (more), even $100 is a great sell for them. The price will rise only if there is a much larger wave of new buyers. If that is coming, it will take some time , probably months to years. It comes down to the same thing with all crypto : either you believe in the long term survival and use case, or not. If you do, then be prepared to hodl , even to much lower prices. If not, then sell out now. |
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Why does the price drop so much? Can someone tell me that? IS THIS THE END?  Ignore the price. If you have been holding since 1400, its down 85%, so only 15% left to lose. No point in selling then. |
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Is this the end of ETH?
Welcome to the (beginning of the) end, then. |
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Yes capitalism isn't about serving anyone rich or poor, or managing anything least of all the economy. Its about free markets - each person looks after their own financial interests and tries to make money and the big picture manages itself without needing central planners.
Yes, that is quite right. The critical central planning, if you can call it that, is having a strong government which can create the framework of laws within which capitalism can operate. Draft the framework carefully, uphold the laws properly, have a small safety net for the weakest, and then let everyone then look after themselves. Not to be confused with central planning of govt interference in the free market, which we all know is a disaster. |
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why so much attention of the broad masses to this project? Explain, please. Nothing special, honestly, I do not see in this one "Dash".
Do you know anything about Dash? You been missing out bro. Where to start? Low fees, fast transactions, instant send. Privacy options. Innovator of two tier network and masternodes. Treasury funded by its own blockchain. Can afford to fund developers / marketing / and other. Governance. First working DAO. Non contentious upgrades. On chain scaling. Large network of nodes which are incentivised. Announcment thread with most views thanks to free bumps from trolls. 6700 pages on BTC talk. Adoption network effect. |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMQX3l7OYYo&feature=youtu.beLosing Money Without Losing Your Edge | Peter Brandt Mental Game of Trading Peter explains some of the common mental pitfalls that can commonly affect traders. He explains how to deal with painful drawdowns, opens up about his own worst losing period, and reveals what it took for him to get back into the black. Hes had drawdowns as much as 37%. AHAHAHA amateur  . I draw down 37% on a good day! Yep. 37% is a joke. BTC'ers hodled thru -90% , twice. Some alt holders hodled thru -98% and one or two even came good after that! |
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maybe there is a declining trend in % dropped.
From about 90% (real number was 93-94%)
to about 80% (about 86% to be exact)
to?
94-86-78?
78% from 19783 is about $4350 (not predicting it because it could be 72-80).
That is one way of putting it. Seems reasonable and hopeful. On that basis the bottom for this bear market should come in around $4k. |
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I agree with the capitulation thing. The last down cycle we sat near $200-$300 for nearly a year. I figure that shook out a lot of people from 2013 that were just waiting for it to "go back up so they could sell.
I held all the way through 2010 to 2012 only to cave at the end of 2012 as it was starting to come back up. As a n00b those were some tough times. But I believed in Bitcoin. Most people who got in last year are about as Bitcoin savvy as the people in Vegas at the Evolve conference.
Same as a lot of ppl, maybe you were afraid of losing the bit that was left. That was a valuable lesson. Vastly more ppl will learn that lesson in the coming year IMO. When only the die hards are left (they don't care how low the price goes) then the new uptrend can slowly begin. BTC going to $2k ? doesn't matter. $1k ? feel the same. It's just a number, and the price will go wherever it needs to go. |
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 1818 is a ridiculously high number. The world definitely doesn't need this amount of worthless and useless coin. Shitcoiners, you don't 51% attack Bitcoin, Bitcoin will 51% you  Yep. If there were 1818 so called "precious metals" in the world, investors/savers would all gravitate to Gold and regard all the rest simply as "fool's gold". I guess that will happen eventually. Silver and a few other metals are used as stores of value, plus there are numerous other commodies and collectables etc which perform this function to a limited extent. There could be quite a number of Cryptos that survive long term (but not anywhere near 1818). In the meantime we are in an evolutionary lifeform/species explosion, which is needed to give natural selection a large choice for the eventual extinction. |
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1. I really cant make sense of any of this?
2. If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.
1. Most ppl can't get their head round it. It needs too much experience and analysis. The market moves in waves : each wave sets up the preconditions for the next. 2. That is the best simple advice. and 3. See my post just above, re keeping it simple. edit : I just realised that worth adding a note on contrarian logic, for those that dont know : Bull markets climb a 'Wall of Worry' Bear markets flow down a 'River of Hope' Thus sentiment is a contrary indicator. The majority of sentiment does not change overnight, and a lot of 'work' is need to be done by time and price, before the herd changes its mind. |
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No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ /sarc off .. Agree In fact, responding to both your posts, I would say it's true that most ppl overthink this trading analysis... and they lose. Just finding one or two very simple (seemingly over-simple) yet powerful drivers, and seeing price through those prisms, has a better chance of success. |
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There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.
Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters. I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price. This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble. I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in? IMO BTC is headed for another rally, maybe from a lower level (perhaps 5k) which will reach around 7.5k by October and fail. The subsequent fall may get to 4k, but in best case could get to 3k, in which case you could call it 'Mass Panic' , and the low could be 'in'. The worse case would be another low around 4k followed by a rally to near 6k (by February ??) and a continued fall after that, with another year of bear market from here. As far as Development and Adoption goes, that will continue whilst price falls, and even better when a more stable low level is reached.. Ironically, there is less proper development in a strong bull phase, because everyone is distracted by easy money. |
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This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses. But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..? P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this. I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness. Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts. Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that. I wish it wasn't so. |
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It seems to me that we gotta get above $10k anyhow before we get too confident that the bottom(s) (however many there have been so far) are "in."
Part of my thinking remains that unless we get above $10k and stay there for a while, we still remain in close striking distance of our current local bottom(s)(again however many there are), and we cannot really rest with comfort while BTC prices are in such close bottom(s) proximity.
By the way, maybe I am wrong about $10k and maybe the safe price point is at a different amount? I am just using that $10k as an approximate tentative place, at the moment, in my current thinking.
Good analysis, in my view. The market will tell us where it is going, ultimately. We can make scenarios and conjectures. Using the terms if/then/but for alternatives is important. 10k would certainly improve the odds that the bottom was in. Looking at the time scales of the down wave (I would rather call this a bear market) you can see it is unlikely we can form an bullish opinion for some months (10k is going to take a bit of work to get to). With price sitting near lows, a bearish opinion could be quicker to get to (if 5.8k is broken decisively). I look at the price action with decades of chart/trend watching experience , and those are the sort of reasons for me to say on balance, we are still in a bear market. A base, and bull trend will take time and market 'effort' to form. Current price action could be forming a bottom, but its too early to say. All the previous lows of major BTC bear trends have been short lived (spike bottoms), and that doesn't bode well here. |
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This chart seems to suggest the bottom will be reached (around 70% lower from here = $1500) in mid 2019. That would not be good news. I am inclined to agree with the timing, but I think (hope!) the price will not get below $2500 |
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Rthereum as well as the entire market of altcoins is now in the risk zone. I think that the Ethereum can drop to $ 100. Bitcoin now looks stronger than the Ethereum.
Unlikely. If it gets there, I would think that is a bad long term signal. Down more than 90% from ATH. ETH could go to $200 without destroying its long term growth. |
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we going to 3 k boys?  4850 That would be a better place for a bounce. Trading is risky, but there would be a fair chance of a good profit from buying around 4500, looking at a 3/4 month view. |
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we going to 3 k boys? Not anytime soon. Any drop below 6k would find its own support (maybe 4800 but thats only a guess). Then another rally into October. The key then is where does the rally fail. Any top below 8000 would still be bearish as the recent rally failed at 8500. If, if we get to 3k, it's more likely to be around middle of 2019. |
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That´s a bit easy isn't it?
Since bitcoin basically startet at 0 USD you can pick any number and see it as an uptrend.
Pick 5 USD for instance. If we move down to 5 USD tomorrow going from bitcoins inception we probably doubled each year.
So, the basic question again : Is BTC in an uptrend or a downtrend ? Answer is simple : Medium term (year or two) Downtrend Longterm : Uptrend. Support line here (open to interpretation) is around $2-3k Trends *always* continue until the relevant support/resistance line is broken . Probably any other analysis becomes over-complicated, unless you want to trade frequently, which is usually a sure way to lose. |
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