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201  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Countdown to the 4th Bitcoin halving.. what should we expect? on: March 26, 2024, 01:33:31 AM
If you want to see possible next things on the market, check the market history.


In previous cycles, Bitcoin makes a parabolic curve after breaking its previous ATH but in this cycle, we are witnessing a totally different thing. Bitcoin breaks its previous ATH, a first ever time before its halving.

In previous cycles, there are big corrections, wash-outs before a parabolic curve kick-off.

Just some notes from market history, market can repeats itself or be different.

Some information about market drawdowns.

202  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: I'm new here, Please answer the question below. on: March 26, 2024, 01:17:34 AM
So what exactly is the problem here ?
It is evil IP but eventually you created another account, this one, and does not have evil IP point so you can post normally.

You can buy a Copper membership that includes Whitelisting.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=credit;promote
OK, I reduced the maximum to the same price as copper membership, since it doesn't really make sense for copper membership to be cheaper when it includes whitelisting.

You can send your request to be whitelisted and there are some forum volunteers who do whitelisting for free.
Quote from: theymos' post
Only abused IP ranges have to pay a fee. The fee is an anti-abuse measure, and it is not meant to be (and isn't) much of a source of revenue.

If any very-veteran members want to volunteer, I can give you the ability to whitelist users. (All Staff can already whitelist users, as well.) Perhaps then someone could create a topic like "List of email addresses for people who can whitelist you for free", which I could link-to on the evil fee page. However, these IPs have evil for a reason. If it was sufficient for them to just solve a captcha or something, I'd have them do that. Before whitelisting someone, you have to do something to be pretty sure that they're not evading a ban and just going to get banned again. You may get the impression from complaints on the forum that everyone hits the fee and it's never warranted, but this is selection bias: the fee is more rare, and the vast majority of accounts that hit it should not be whitelisted.

Some threads for Whitelisting Submit
203  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DCA vs Smart DCA, what do you choose? on: March 26, 2024, 01:08:30 AM
At 67 my dca time frames are shorter.

I purchased from nov 2022 to 2023 nov maybe dec 2023.

I sold some kept most.  a five year dca with a five year hodl is not realistic at my age.  as i want some life to live now since I am 67. I have no one to give when I die. So spending is part of what I do.
Each person has unique conditions to plan their investment and your case is a good example. We are all different and even with DCA, people can apply it differently. Depends on capital they have, income they have and available time they have for investment.

Even if I am younger, but assume I know that I need to use my money next two or three years, I will try to find best chances to take profit in this cycle because I know that if I hesitate to take profit, I will stuck in a next bear market and I will have to sell my bitcoins at lower price than in this bull run.

Gradually exit in a bull run, if don't plan to invest and hold a long time, is good strategy.

Below are some strategies for newbies, not you as I know you are experienced enough in this market.
204  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DCA vs Smart DCA, what do you choose? on: March 25, 2024, 02:00:24 AM
If you modify DCA strategy, it is not DCA anymore.
It is still DCA. It is similar to your practice with any technical indicator for your trading, you can customize many parameters in a same indicator and still can not change that indicator to a new one.

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It might be better or worse than DCA’ing but it ain’t no DCA’ing. DCA means buying daily weekly or monthly with the same amount. Of course most people can’t do it properly and it is because sometimes they buy $1000 worth of btc and sometimes a bit more or less. However that’s still considered DCA ing as long as they keep buying.
DCA is still flexible and your example is true. Sometimes with some people, they can not have available money for investment regularly on exactly weekly or monthly basis and they don't even have to double their input money if they skip a last month (don't have money for DCA last month). They can change from weekly to monthly then back to weekly, depends on their financial status and available money for investment.

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When you try to time your buys, then you are only trying to time the markets. When try to time the markets, the price is the time. If you are that smart, sure go time the markets. DCA is for the people who don’t know how to do it.
I agree that timing the market is not actually good but if you know what you are doing, you can do it and it is still DCA but it is applicable for more experienced and skillful investors.

For newbies, yes, Traditional DCA is best.
205  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Do you think merit is by chance or lengthy article? on: March 25, 2024, 01:50:03 AM
Initially, I was to think merit is by chance ( i.e something that will just happen) or lengthy article ( i.e writing too many paragraphs and the rest of them), but I have come to realize that, it is more than that.

If you make ten thousand posts in a week, your activity will be capped and you will still be a Newbie. If you make ten thousand useless posts over any period of time, you will gain zero merit and you will still be a Newbie. You can rank up only by making good posts consistently. It's quality over quantity.

When trying to write quality posts, a lot of people act as though they're writing a book report for school: putting facts that we already know into their own words. Nobody wants to read that, and you will not get merit for it. Moreover, the length of your post and the quality of your English are only minor factors. In trying to write a quality post worthy of merit, you should offer new ideas, personal experiences, or perspectives that other forum users will actually find new and interesting.

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I have being discouraged several times because of my numerous posts and replies yet no merit then. Even now, some times I use to be discourage.
You can write hundreds or thousands of post but get no single merit if all your posts are shit posts and not helpful, not interesting to any forum member.

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However, the only way to get merit is by posting quality article ( that is what determines merit) which almost everybody is aware of now.
You don't need to write article in Bitcointalk. Helpful posts are enough to help you receive merits when readers (forum members, not guests) like your posts, see your posts helpful and appreciate your posts with their sendable merit.
206  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin a scam on: March 25, 2024, 01:41:50 AM
To end all FUD attacks against Bitcoin, it is impossible but individually we can prepare knowledge for ourselves to be not affected by Bitcoin FUD.

Endthefud.org is a website for newbies to be enlightened with knowledge and be a stronger Bitcoin enthusiast.

It provides different categorical resources for learning
Energy
Justice
Bitcoin as money
Inflation
Control
Governments
Tech like Quantum computing.

Bitcoincleanup.com with its message "Bitcoin is already using clean energy.[/url]
207  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 24, 2024, 03:58:06 AM
Freebitco.in isn't fan to hold or pause the campaign, AFAIK they only have one long campaign and other one was just a seasonal.
There are many things to continue or hold or end their campaign, they are free to do this with their money and we all knew that. The manager wrote this term clearly in the campaign thread.

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Since the campaign is put on hold because of insufficient balance, I believe it will continue, even though the worst case could happen too. Cheesy
It is good signal that it can be restarted soon when the campaign wallet is filled up again.

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While Fortunejack, there are many campaigns so far:
Honestly, could we stop talking about FJ and list their threads here?

It's the announcement thread of Freebitco.in. Think about it, please.
208  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🚀 Dive Into Bitwinup: The Ultimate Crypto Trading Arena is Here! 🎲 on: March 24, 2024, 03:41:28 AM
where did the prices come from? which exchange is kept as a point of reference?
I had the same question in mind so I went to their FAQ page and found this piece of information under "Trading rules":
The game utilizes price feeds provided by the top 3 crypto exchanges to ensure accurate and reliable pricing information.
They didn't mention the names of those three exchanges, though!
For transparency reasons, I think they should do so that players can verify the accuracy and fairness of the results.
For transparency and reputation of their business as well as to avoid accusations from users in future, they need to add names of exchanges used in their formula.

Because there are many cryptocurrency exchanges and top 3 crypto exchanges is still a vague information.

According to Coinmarketcap, top 3 exchanges are Binace, Coinbase, Bybit.
https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/

According to Coingecko, top 3 exchanges are OKX, Bybit, Coinbase.
https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/
209  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker on: March 24, 2024, 02:39:35 AM
Last week, Grayscale has massive outflow and both BlackRock, Fidelity ETFs could not cover it with their inflows. The recent outflow from Grayscale probably comes from Genesis but if their outflow rate continues, they will have nothing left next 90 days.

Sooner or later, selling pressure from Grayscale redemptions will stop and other new Bitcoin Spot ETFs with majority of purchases from BlackRock and Fidelity will bring Bitcoin on a positive direction.

At the current rate of redemptions, GBTC runs out of Bitcoin to sell in 96 DAYS.

Since GBTC started trading as an ETF on 11th January, Grayscale has transferred 266.47K BTC out of their wallets for GBTC redemptions.

That’s a rate of 25.9K BTC per week.

210  Economy / Gambling / Re: MetaWin.com | The First WEB3 Casino on: March 23, 2024, 12:50:28 PM
That is because there is a relationship between profitability and risk, not only in gambling, but in everything that has to do with money in general, which I would say is almost an economic law.
I agree  Cheesy

This is true with all things in our life, from gambling with whatever game types, to trading with whatever leverages, and investments. If an investor chooses Bitcoin, that is a safest choice in cryptocurrency market for investment. If the choice goes to altcoins and especially meme tokens, risk is higher but that person can afford to lose money, take very high risk, with small probability to win big.
211  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 23, 2024, 05:18:20 AM
Recently freebitco signature campaign has been put on hold as you can see in the below message from the campaign manager.  
It is put on HOLD because of issue with a campaign wallet top-up and it might return when the company tops up that wallet for the campaign manager.

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Also some week back, another long running gambling site's Fortune Jack Signature campaign (if I remember it correctly) came to an end.
The campaign with FJ is different and it was paused because there are internal changes in the FJ team and reasons of pause of two campaigns are different.

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I wonder whether the bull market and increase in the bitcoin prices have anything to do with this or if it is just an individual gambling site's decision to pause the campaigns temporarily or permanently.
A bull run is good time to advertise gambling sites because people who get easy money from a bull market, will more easily to spend money for gambling.

If reason of campaign pause is because of Bitcoin price rise, both FreeBitco.in and FJ would have stopped their campaigns many years ago so my interpretation is, Bitcoin price is not big problem. As big and successful businesses, they actually spend part of their income and profit for advertisement rather than spending from their own pockets.
212  Economy / Gambling / Re: MetaWin.com | The First WEB3 Casino on: March 23, 2024, 05:08:27 AM
Signature campaign managers are lucky Grin I rarely win high bets but if it's a lucky day for me, I end up with a positive balance. 898x and 734x are definitely a huge win. Not in slots but the max that I have won was x1449 or something like that, I made a sportsbet and included bets on more than 10 teams in the ticket. I picked more than half of bets with pure luck and it succeeded, it's super rare to see such a huge win in sportsbook.
Being lucky with some high multiplier bets but the manager gave us a warning about risk of betting with high multipliers. It's fair and straightly enough towards the risk and benefit when chasing big wins with high multipliers.

It is not quite sure that with high multipliers and bet numbers you will get better net profit than with low multipliers and same bet numbers. I believe the second bet style will bring better net-profit.

Generally with betting, risk is high and no 100% guarantee to win with any multiplier either low or high, used for betting.
213  Other / Meta / Re: Merit source observations on: March 22, 2024, 02:40:47 PM
Merit bell

Again, I am not sure when the change happened but today, by checking I see small changes than a last merit bell.
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There are 108 merit sources with a total merit generation of up to 32890 sMerit per 30 days

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There are 109 merit sources with a total merit generation of up to 33140 sMerit per 30 days
214  Other / Meta / Re: Is the Merit circulation on a downtrend yet Bitcoin is on an uptrend? on: March 22, 2024, 02:34:27 PM
Could some folks please help us with the stats? @LoyceV, @DdmrDdmr @tranthidung
I stopped playing with merit data many months but about 4 years ago I saw something shady happened with merit distributions. It became worse last 2 years.

If you look at general distribution, that can be nearly the same, no big changes but the general distribution does not mean Sendable Merits are circulating, distributing fairly in the forum.

If it is a loop between local users for sMerit distribution, generally if you don't belong to actively internal merit circle, you will feel like sMerit nowadays (recent months like about last 2 years) will be more scarce because you actually received less than previous years.

So what are loops and merit holes?

I know how you feel but please take it easy  Cheesy

I will say this also because o_e_l_e_o and Ratimov are gone and no more posting or sending merit to anyone on this forum again.
They are not main reasons and if they are main reasons, the merit system fails.
215  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DCA vs Smart DCA, what do you choose? on: March 22, 2024, 01:08:09 PM
The DCA strategy assumes that the user does not have any prior knowledge about Bitcoin or trading, and therefore it is a long-term strategy based on the fact that the price of Bitcoin in the long-term trend is bullish, but once you gain some experience, you will realize that it is not the best strategy in terms of profits, but it is the easiest, so there is any improvement on it.
DCA saves our time and avoid headache to time the market.

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A strategy like Smart DCA will be your next step and with more knowledge you will reach the stage of profit from day trading.
It can be a next 'smart' step but if we look deeper, we can see that it is not perfect and you even can buy at higher price with Smart DCA than with classic DCA.

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BTW, I need to sign in so I can see charts.
Yes, you need an account (free one) on CryptoQuant, sign in to see the chart.

This "smart DCA" thing is pretty much just once again trying to time the markets — whereas the point of DCA is to actually accept the fact that 99% of people can't time the markets, hence slowly buy daily/weekly/biweekly/monthly.
I can not disagree because the Smart DCA is somewhat against main purpose of DCA.

Although I do kind of smart DCA at some point, I think for most people it is better to do simple DCA and not eat the head.
When people try to do Smart DCA, they are trying to be smart and time the market. It is oppositely against DCA strategy.

Unless you understand the time when you need to get into the market, the smart DCA is not going to work for you. It's nothing but an indicator to get into the market based on price. That's why the majority of the people will get it wrong.
With Smart DCA, it has one more disadvantage, people will have to wait a long time to get in and it is big test for their patience. They can keep waiting for some days, weeks but if they lose patience at the top, buy at top, it's painful.
216  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: March 22, 2024, 12:57:52 PM
I think, sometimes it's not gambling sites it's providers who don't allow us to play from certain locations. Have you noticed that on the same site some games you can play and some games you can't. I actually don't know what should be the policy of gambling sites regarding using VPN in such cases.
Restrictions can come from the gambling site itself or from the game providers. Generally, a gambling site has its own global restricted areas and it means all games on that gambling site will not be available for their restricted area list. After that, there are extra restrictions from game providers and a person who lives in a specific nation is allowed to play game A and other many games from a game provider X, but is not allowed to play games B and some other games from a game provider Y.
217  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 22, 2024, 12:50:26 PM
If you look at the weekly and monthly charts it seems that the price of bitcoin is starting to tend to fall if they are unable to raise the price of bitcoin above $75k again, but if they fail then the downward pressure will be very strong, although in some there may still be a slight increase but it won't be long, the price the possibility will tend to decrease, just betting on 4 possible predictions to be on the safe side also at prices below $60k and above, but I need time for the next day or two until Sunday whether the price of bitcoin will rise again
The market is actually heated a lot recent months and it needs correction, even more than one correction, to cool down.

Corrections after 6 months, we are in a 7th month, of bullish, greenish, are very necessary to help the market rising up more. Making new all time high before the halving is actually very impressive performance from Bitcoin. I didn't expect it too happen and this is a first time ever, Bitcoin successfully makes a new all time high before its halving.

I will not feel surprised if $74k is a top of 2024 but I don't lose my belief that Bitcoin will have higher price in 2025 and best of this bull run has yet come to us.
218  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / DCA vs Smart DCA, what do you choose? on: March 22, 2024, 07:33:32 AM
I believe many of us are familiar with Dollar Cost Averaging, DCA but how about Smart DCA.

This thread is for discussion, and I am not concluding Smart DCA is actually Smart and better than DCA.  Cheesy


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I wanted to remind you about the concept of Smart DCA, purchasing BTC during corrections, when the price drops below the 1W-1M Realized Price.

This strategy works well during a bull rally and is much more effective than classic DCA.


A quick glance gives me that is a good strategy but if I look deeper, it is not actually smart.

By using Smart DCA, simply glance at it, we see entries are below 1W-1M Realized Price but we will miss days, weeks before price drops behind the Realize price (blue line) and miss chances to buy when price is even lower than the Green areas that are entries given by Smart DCA indicator.

Share your thinking about this strategy please.

Personally I see a traditional DCA strategy is better.
219  Economy / Gambling / Re: FORTUNEJACK.COM |Deposit 777 play with 1777 mBTC |Live Casino, Slots, Betting on: March 21, 2024, 11:02:22 AM
TITLE RACE



1 Point separates the league leaders in the Premier League.

How do you think the final top 3 will end up looking like?

fortunejack.com/m-7


-ADante
Manchester City dominated Premier League last six seasons by winning five titles. Only Liverpool were able to win one Premier League title in last six season. After this season ending, Klopp will leave Liverpool so it will be a happy ending for both Klopp and Liverpool if they win this Premier League season.

If wanting surprise, people will pick Arsenal and Arteta as they are improving in two latest seasons and are challenging both Manchester City and Liverpool for the title. They are holding the first position but will have like hardest schedule ahead. The match directly with Manchester City at Etihad stadium will be very important for Arsenal. If they can win or draw against Manchester City, their journey to win Premier League will be very brightly.
220  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: March 21, 2024, 10:52:46 AM
It looks like Allegri really needs to be replaced from Juventus. The reason is that currently Juventus' performance looks increasingly uncertain. In fact, as you said, this season Juventus can be much more focused than other clubs in Serie A. Apart from that, Juventus also currently has a number of players who are performing very well. But unfortunately Allegri couldn't take advantage of all that and Juventus currently has no hope of becoming Serie A champions. So the best solution is for Juventus to change its coach, like AS Roma did a few weeks ago. Because, for example, Allegri will continue to coach Juventus next season. Of course this is not the right thing to do.
Changing the head coaches is not always good and Juventus might or might not get sweet results like Roma if they sack Allegri and hire a new head coach. This will be like their big decision and somewhat a bet that a head coach will manage the team better than Allegri. They can do many research before hiring a new coach but it is always risky change in their club.

The bottom line is whether biggest problems in their club now are from their head coach (Allegri) or from their players?

Answering this well, they will find possible best solution to end their crisis.

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And from the news that I know, it is said that Thiago Motta is rumored to be the one who will replace Allegri's position at Juventus.

Maybe that is a really good idea. Because currently Thiago Motta has quite good achievements at Bologna. But this is still just a rumor, so whether it will happen or not can't be confirmed yet.
Thiago Motta is doing well with Bologna two latest seasons especially this season but will he succeed if he takes over the head coach position at Juventus?

No one knows. We saw big failure of young coaches like Nageslman, Andre Villa-Boas in the past when they moved to big clubs.
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