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There is a level you should never forget, which applies to almost everyone - "big or small" - posting here: they want to make money based on their ideas of where the price will go.
There is plenty of FUD both ways.
The most important thing is to take a step back from the daily blah blah and TA and get your own ideas about Bitcoin the technology, stock, currency, whatever, and base your money on this.
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Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:  (bitstamp) Time for a bounce back? What do you think? It will take people a few days to get used to the idea but I think it's good. |
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So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?
Of course, but then I have a handful of cash though which is also nice thing to have these days.  [/quote] Thank you for your refreshing honesty! An honest FUD-spreader, ladies and gentlemen!  |
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what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?
I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value... Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-) The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels. You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post  Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz. Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too. Don't you think they have bought already? Don't you think they sold already ? Well some of them might have been sold a bit already but for those of them who haven't sold, I am encouraging them to sell in case of price drop like Reptila is declaring here. He has done good job in analyzing and I cannot simply ignore his research as unvalid, of course there is a probability he is wrong but based on his track record and stash of money, he must have been more often right than wrong. You judge yourself. As I told, I made my decision and sold 90 % of my BTC holdings and planning rebuy only if the price drops significiantly from this point - if not I do not have stop-loss set and I will cry the opportunity cost of betting agains BitCoin for short/midlong term. So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right? |
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Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.
It doesn't seem like you've factored in the kinds of changes - "mass-adoption" (or at least evolving mass-awareness thanks to increased media coverage), developing services, etc. - that have led to some calling this the "tipping point" for Bitcoin. Of course it is impossible to give precise mathematical indicators in this respect but qualitatively speaking things are not the same now as they were historically. That said, the December 18 low of $450 fits well in comparison with history. |
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what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?
I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value... Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-) The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels. You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post |
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Set up a buy order for a coin you want at a LOT lower price than you think is reasonable and then chill. Either it'll hit or it won't. Give it a few days. You'll be surprised how low markets can go!
Be prepared to move your orders - my lowest orders never get filled ! |
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Not sure about ATH yet but an uptrend is right
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Just wait till the holidays are over. I would think most people are looking for tax deductions right now.
Meaning? |
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So how will the price move between now and january 1.?
I think pretty stable at current price.
Unfortunately you are wrong (with relatively high probability). The price won't be stable at current levels. That's right... It's going to go up. |
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Seeing the effects of hacks, hype, news, etc. on prices throughout this year it is safer to look at the "long" term. Leveraging your bets on something that swings so much on news and whale trading is playing Russian roulette.
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dude, dunno what your asking but i would hang tight becuase we prob gonna break previous low of 455.
They laugh now, will they still be laughing come the end of Jan 2014? Or will they be calling new bottoms all the way down to double digits, just like they did all the way down from $1200 to less than $500? No, I believe "downtrend until western exchanges regain pre-China volume levels and support the price on their own". This could very well be higher than the previous low, or could be lower. It is nice to see that at least some other people here are aware of the significance of the ongoing China thing. Still lots of coins in China that may or may not be getting dumped on a BTC exchange near you, depending on the whim of the Chinese government. I can't bare to see all this arrogance, pomposity, and rather premature circle jerking when Bitcoin is still held dangling over a cliff by the Chinese government, will they let Bitcoin plummet or will they place it 'safely' back up on the ledge? Reading through these forums actually makes me hope that they see to it that Bitcoin takes a good thrashing, if only to smash the delusions of the multitude of idiots on places like this. Whatever happens, I will seek to take advantage of either way. I pretty much agree with everything you post. Hope we are right, this China thing represents a second chance for all of us late to the party. If it weren't for that btc would be over $2k right now. C'mon $200, my 4 grand is waiting.... We went to $450 - that actually seems about right for the bottom and funnily enough was the price that I thought looked right for the bottom when thinking about it 5 weeks ago (didn't buy there of course, but have been thinking about it a fair bit since  ). I don't think we will see $450 again. |
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look at the logarithmic chart for the past couple of years at http://bitcoincharts.com/Try drawing a straight line somewhere "fair" between the highs and the lows. Choose a few points on this line from the time when you will have your money ready. Check the corresponding prices. Depending on how long you will stay in for and also the market conditions at the time you might decide to give yourself some leeway with the actual price you will pay: a lot of positive news coverage / near-future events for example might make you may decide to buy in a little higher than the line. In my humble opinion this method will work for most people looking at investing for 6 months to several years from now. Some might disagree with me, saying that a few months is too short-term, but given the current situation if you buy in between the extremes at some point now I think you will soon be sitting pretty. |
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I have cashed out also. I read Rpietila's writings and he is saying we will have pretty low prices ahead (300-400 USD). I have been following BTC for some time - despite I am new in the forum - so I see this exactly the same as last spring/summer. Now the price is down-trend and it should really find the strong support level that we need to rest for some time before BitCoin is ready to go to the moon. There are plenty of money being made if you just now sell your coins and waite that all the others are following you and then rebuy them 50 % lower. It means, you get with the same fiat 100 % more coins and as the price restarts to climb up, you have twice as many coins as you would otherwise have. It must be nerve-wracking not knowing if you'll be able to buy in cheaper before the New Year |
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Given the position I'm trying to get into for compliance, short term tarding would just be foolish. Add to that that I think by the time I'm ready to liquidate a significant portion they'll be worth more than they are today, I'm hodling, hodling from bitcoin tarding.
Does that make you a hodling tard then ? I am holder as the price is rising and let the others be holders in turn when the price turns. I will be buyer only when I know I am making money. The loosers will hold BTC when the price drops and they are not in position of adding some more coins as they are all-in already. And please may I be happy ever after. Amen. |
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Ha ha! I just meant the way you phrased it "bullish until just after the double-top"... sounds obvious, get it?
But if you want to talk seriously about predicting bitcoin price movements... I admit it - it's a fair cop - I'm pretty crap at it!
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... From this point until just after the double top, I was bullish.
Man you really have some sixth sense working for you there!  |
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After 13 dec 2013 (when market was at 895 level),the down-trend seems to reverse any-time now.
The rise will easily achieve 746 level.
...spoke too soon? It just started to go down to 610. Unless, you were referring to how high this bounce could go. The overall pressure seems to indicate a downward trend. Bitcoin is manically depressed at the moment |
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