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2841  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 04, 2023, 09:23:40 AM
PSG look unstoppable, and it should be noted that this transformation happened when they returned Mbappe to the starting lineup.

 No doubt they're on fire and Lyon are not helping themselves to at least defend properly to make it hard for PSG. The return of Mbappe to the squad has uplift the team to winning ways but for how long are they going to rely on Mbappe? When is time for him to part ways with the club, what would be their plan? He's good no doubt but I think the coach should sometimes bench him and see how well they'd do without him.

This problem will have to be solved in a year, so PSG have time. In addition, I think that Kolo Muani is the replacement for Mbappe - he has a long-term contract and if he progresses (or at least does not degrade), then PSG will have no problems with attack. Even now, PSG still have Dembele and Gonzalo Ramos. Many clubs could only dream of such a selection of strikers.
2842  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: September 03, 2023, 08:27:46 PM
the 3rd matchday is now over and we can congratulate morvillz7z aka Hoody_Hoo for the matchday win.
he was able to shoot up 14 places with 15 points and now occupies second place. congratulations also for winning a sportsbet.io free bet - i immediately forwarded your username Smiley
and when i look at the picks from Ulven, i can't understand why he left out the game stuttgart vs. freiburg and didn't make a prediction there - maybe we'll get an explanation for it Grin
here the obligatory 2 overviews

~

Nice jump! morvillz7z came close to jumping out of nowhere into first place  Smiley While everyone is going very tightly and such jumps are still possible (which makes me happy and gives optimism).

I see that no one guessed the loss of points by Dortmund and I'm afraid to imagine how many betters curse Dortmund after this round because of the destroyed multibets  Grin
2843  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: September 03, 2023, 08:07:39 PM
What a game!

United tried to hold on, but they were washed away during stoppage time.

Couldn't identify xGI streaks across matches except for Saka and Rashford, so if you own them... keep 'em  Wink

I was amused by how during the post-match interview TH said that “we have to accept the referee’s decisions but...” and further enumeration of the many alleged mistakes that the referee made  Grin According to TH, United should have won this game but for some reason when I look at the statistics I don't believe him  Cheesy
2844  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 03, 2023, 08:02:53 PM
PSG went berserk, beating Lyon in the first half with a score of 0-4. Playing away doesn't make PSG weak, because in reality Lyon can't do much to stop PSG movement. It's really unfortunate, because basically Lyon is also in a bad performance at this moment because they have played three matches but Lyon didn't get a win at all. Therefore, it would not be strange if PSG were able to beat Lyon in this match, because basically PSG is the one who has improved their performance in every match, and then against Lyon which is in a slump. So of course, PSG can take advantage of the bad conditions experienced by Lyon to win big in this away match.

PSG look unstoppable, and it should be noted that this transformation happened when they returned Mbappe to the starting lineup. Probably the sheikhs who wanted to punish Mbappe, but in the end only punished themselves, are upset by this turn of events  Grin
In any case, after this round, PSG will not be in first place, so we will see some kind of struggle for a few more rounds.
2845  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: September 03, 2023, 07:55:51 PM
But this is less relevant for international competitions like the World Cup. Those tournaments are not everyday business and perhaps everyone has this feeling when a World Cup takes place in a sport that we don't usually follow, but then we pay attention to it and even watch it when the favorite teams make it into the quarter finals and such. This is why I am absolutely convinced that the World Cup 2026 will be passionate in all regards. People will cheer whether they like the NBA more on not, it's nationals day so to say and I like that. Look at the amazing Morocco fans from 2022 in Qatar. They are an amazing example for an impressive crowd to support their team.

People love holidays and big events, so such large-scale events as the World Cup always get an audience that is many times larger than the usual number of fans. This rule works everywhere - I even know people who have never played Dota, never watch any Dota games, but the Internaional final is an event for them and they watch it with pleasure. If we are talking about football, then historically it affects much larger sections of the population, therefore the involvement of the population in such an event as the World Cup is always huge.
2846  Local / Разное / Re: Форум недоступен из России on: September 03, 2023, 05:57:06 PM
" Ресурсы со списками VPN или с инструкциями по созданию собственных VPN и прокси могут быть заблокированы
~

Ага, тоже офигел от этой новости (неудаление запрещенной информации в течении суток является достаточным основанием для блокировки). А те кто сейчас храбрится что "лазейки всегда будут" конечно правы, только вот со временем и срок за использование ВПН тоже будет. Если смотреть масштабно то тенденция понятно куда ведет. Остается надеяться что падишах все-таки сдохнет раньше чем ишаки  Grin
2847  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: September 03, 2023, 05:51:24 PM
Arsenal best goal and best performance. Honestly, this is a big blow for Man United, including Erik Ten Hag. Arsenal were able to produce extraordinary results even in the final minutes when I thought there would be no more goals after Declan Rice scored the deciding goal. But Arteta didn't waste a minute and Gabriel Jesus finished beautifully. I say spectacular because time is clearly running out. Erik Ten Hag scored a goal that is difficult to forget and is an important note because in the second half there were many wasted opportunities where Rashford repeatedly received many free passes but was too slow not to pass. So it's pretty clear Man United will be disappointed with this result.

I think the result is fully consistent with the logic of the game, although the denouement came in stoppage time. This is very clear from the statistics:

Shots - 17:10
Shots on target - 5:2
Corners - 12:3
Ball possession - 55% : 45%

Notably, Arteta's two substitutions resulted in two goals. I wonder what excuses we will hear from TH in an interview - the goal that United scored was canceled honestly, it was out of play.
2848  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: September 03, 2023, 05:41:45 PM
This pool is now officially closed for the season. We have 28 participants so I decided to pay out one more reward when compared to last season.
We have 42 mBTC from participants, 100 from Sportsbet sponsorship and 10 from buwaytress. That gives us 152 mBTC for rewards which will be split in following way:

Season 2023-20224 rewards structure:
1. Place - 60 mBTC (fees are paid from this prize)
2. Place - 35 mBTC
3. Place - 20 mBTC
4. Place - 15 mBTC
5. Place - 10 mBTC
6. Place -  6 mBTC
Highest overall yellow cap - 6 mBTC

That comes out to 152mBTC and fees will be paid from first place award.

Thank you Trofo! 20% of the participants will be in prizes + free bets to the winners of individual rounds - very generous conditions  Cool
I see that the number of participants is growing, but in my opinion the conditions are so favorable that the number of participants should be even greater.

The game Atlético - Sevilla was canceled due to weather conditions, which means that today there is only one game left where, in theory, there should be no surprises.
2849  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: September 03, 2023, 05:31:31 PM
~
Last season, Chelsea and Spurs and United were the gifts that kept on giving. I took 2 separate freebets involving Chelsea's loss but actually felt confident enough to follow up with this one:



My regret was not doing it earlier when you could easily get 9/1 with a price boost. Chelsea, United, for the time being, if you see 7/1 against them, take it. Depending on Liverpool, go against them too -- but judging from odds, bookies don't rate them too well.

Chelsea looks like it will be a cash cow again for those who bet on underdogs  Cheesy The question is how long it will last - if they continue to play like they did last season, then the odds will quickly drop to unfavorable (although against the basement of the table Chelsea must be favorites anyway? Paradox hehe).

It seems that Rice is putting an end to the Arsenal-United game, and Ten Hag needs to look again for someone who is "to blame for everything"  Grin

upd: Wow Jesus! 3-1!  Grin
2850  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will the transfers to the Saudi league become a problem for European football? on: September 03, 2023, 02:10:47 PM
I see no problem that European football will lose its special position (if Saudi Arabia continues to invest a lot of money in football). If the best players are more evenly distributed across the different regions of the planet then maybe competitions like the Club World Cup will make some difference. At the moment it's nothing more than a joke and I don't know who watches these tournaments.
In general, judging by the trends, if European clubs (top clubs) do not organize the Super League, then they will basically stagnate and fade away, and the place of the Super League will be taken by the Premier League, which in financial terms is exactly the Super League already.
2851  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: September 03, 2023, 02:01:16 PM
If MLS finds investors willing to buy players for any amount of money, Klopp will start demanding that the MLS transfer window be the same as the European one? In my opinion, this is just hypocritical whining, because as long as the Premier League remains the richest league in the world, it is better for them to remain silent about any imbalances and injustices.
It seems like all the complaints were mostly coming from EPL. I don't see another league giving criticism to the saudi's transfer. It seems like the people in the different league didn't even care so much regarding the aggressive transfer from saudi pro league. According to the latest reports, EPL still becomes the league with the biggest spender in any season.

The Premier League is complaining because they have a new competitor and are under a lot of pressure both in terms of player prices and salaries. The rest of the leagues don't pay much attention to the Saudis because they have a longstanding problem - the Premier League and the Saudis still have less weight than the Premier League. Saudi Arabia looks like a fair competitor among other leagues, but the Premier League looks like a rich bag full of money:

~
Premier League 2737 million euros
French League 900.64 million euros
Saudi League 846.57 million euros
Serie A 845.66 million euros
Bundesliga 767 million euros
La Liga 432 million euros
2852  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: September 03, 2023, 12:30:55 PM
People who bet on first half Gladbach and second half Bayern Munich must have made a lot of money. I think this was worth given a chance by placing a small bet. I'm regretful for not trying it with a little money. Because the recent games between them have been quite interesting. Bayern Munich weren't having good games against them recently.

After Gladbach scored first I wondered whether Bayern Munich wouldn't manage to get a win again. But they managed to make the comeback in the second half. This time it was a game in which Kane was silent. Sane and Tel were under the spotlight instead. Tel can be a really great striker in the future.

What were the odds after the first half? I don’t think it’s much more than 2, because according to statistics Bayern dominated:

Shots - 8:25
Shots on target - 3:9
Corners - 1:15 (LOL)  Cheesy
Ball possession - 38% : 62%.

Therefore, the risk could not be justified. It's funny that I added the outcome of this match to my multibet and my pick was Bayern win with a -1 goal handicap, but I lost.
2853  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: September 03, 2023, 12:20:02 PM
Randal Kolo Muani is the most expensive palyer of PSG in this transfer window they hired him from Eintracht Frankfurt while this team wanted to keep this palyer and Kolo Muan had bad behavior there, that's why he made his team to accept the offer, and let him go, now Kolo Muan got injured in the training and the most expensive players of PSG in this simmer will be absent against Olympique Lyonnais.
 


From what I understand it's a minor injury (sprained right ankle) and he'll be back in action in a few days. But he will definitely miss the game with the Olympic - it makes no sense to risk the third most expensive player in history for PSG (the first two are Neymar and Mbappe). And I don't think that PSG's chances will change in any way from this - after all, he has not played with the rest of the players at all, so he would hardly be a big boost even if he took part in the game.
2854  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: September 03, 2023, 10:30:32 AM
Manchester United would play with their full main starting eleven in Old Trafford. However when it comes to the match in Turkey I also think that they wouldn't bring some key players. It can actually depend on the situation of the group by then. Because their match in Turkey against each other is on the fifth match week.

I think most probably the scenario will be like this:

- Galatasaray win the first match against Copenhagen.
- After that they lose to Manchester United away and Bayern Munich in both matches.
- After these results Galatasaray might manage to get at least one point against Manchester United in Turkey and three points against Copenhagen on the final week.

These results would help Galatasaray qualify for the Europa League at least.

In the fifth round, United will play in full force with Galatasaray because in the 6th round they play with Bayern and then a defeat is very likely even despite the fact that by then Bayern will already have the first place in the group (and if not, then all the more ). Given that for Galatasaray the fifth and sixth rounds will consist of games against United and Copenhagen, the likelihood that they will make +6 points relative to United (in case they win at home) is very high. 6 points in the group stage is a lot and I am sure that United have no right to risk their place in the playoffs.
2855  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: September 03, 2023, 10:23:56 AM
I support Klopp when he said that if Saudi is to level up and be professional, they should follow a unified calendar.
They cannot keep their windows open longer than the English window and other European windows.
They are interested in Salah, if they eventually get him because of their extended window, how will Liverpool have a replacement of Salah.
~

If MLS finds investors willing to buy players for any amount of money, Klopp will start demanding that the MLS transfer window be the same as the European one? In my opinion, this is just hypocritical whining, because as long as the Premier League remains the richest league in the world, it is better for them to remain silent about any imbalances and injustices.
2856  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: September 03, 2023, 10:19:47 AM
Concerns began to emerge over Pochettino performance after only being able to win one win in four games. Initially it was hoped that he could improve Chelsea performance, but he failed to meet the expectations of Chelsea management and it was still difficult to win even though several quality players had been brought in. Chelsea played very badly, like a small team that had just been promoted to the EPL, their game had no direction, they still had difficulty building connections between their players.
I think Pochettino future with Chelsea will not last long if Chelsea performance is still bad. When a team has made major changes but is still having difficulty winning, then the coach's performance needs to be questioned, whether he is able to formulate a good strategy or not.

Theoretically, Chelsea should be patient when other clubs are actively involved in European competition and then they will have an advantage over them. The problem is that Poccetino can be sacked before this period because if you lose to Nottingham, then all other options do not matter. Therefore, in the next away game with Bournemouth, Chelsea only need a victory, and then a home victory over Aston Villa. By the way, Chelsea have a rather easy calendar (up to the 9th round when they play with Arsenal), so there are chances to return to business.
2857  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Последний вагон на север on: September 03, 2023, 09:13:53 AM
Это та мысль, которую я вдалбливаю уже несколько лет. На самом деле люди поступают вполне себе рационально. Они задницей чувствуют, что 3-4 икса им погоду не сделают. Да что там, говорить, даже 10 иксов за 5 лет погоды не сделают.  Допустим, у человека маленький депозит в 1 000 — 3 000 долларов. Не удивляйтесь, у многих именно такие маленькие депозиты. Так вот, даже 10 иксов ничего для чела принципиально не решат. Ну станет у него 10-30К и что? С «завода» это не даст возможности уволиться. И это ещё при условии, достаточно небанальном, кстати, что чел сможет купить близко к дну и продать близко к вершине.
   Поэтому у шитков нет альтернативы, как ты ни крути.

Крайне опасное заблуждение основанное на ложной альтернативе.
Чего не казино, кстати, или беттинг? Там не надо 5 лет ждать чтобы рискнуть и получить нужное количество иксов (или все проиграть).
Мне кажется что надо выбирать из реальных вариантов (не вижу возможности х100, значит попробую взять хотя бы х5), а не из воображаемых где сначала высчитывается сколько надо иксов, а потом делается соответствующий выбор.
Аргумент о том, что вероятность х100 идёт (якобы) с одинаковым риском с х5 не принимаю так как если это так, то конечно рациональный выбор очевиден, но тогда непонятно что мы тут обсуждаем.
2858  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: September 02, 2023, 10:54:44 PM
This transfer window is over and we had many Saudi teams spending too much money in this summer and many superstar players left European teams to the Arabian team to earn more money there, while compared to the other leagues the teams in La Liga sent less money than we were expecting to see from them.
 
Premier League 2737 million euros
French League 900.64 million euros
Saudi League 846.57 million euros
Serie A 845.66 million euros
Bundesliga 767 million euros
La Liga 432 million euros

Damn. The Premier League spent almost as much as the other 4 top Europa Leagues. Everyone knows about this financial imbalance, but its magnitude simply blows the mind. Thank God that in European competition there is almost always someone who knocks out English clubs. If the results were more "logical" we would see their complete dominance.
2859  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: September 02, 2023, 10:46:32 PM
What a f*cking easy group for Manchester City with all these teams who City can beat them very easily as they come from much lower quality leagues like Young Boys from Swiss Super League and C.Zvedza from Serbian Premier League,these surely won't put up any difficulty or fight against Manchester City.They also have Leipzig again which they beat and eliminated last year so also this team does not pose any threat for them.Also most other groups are easy for the big teams like for Real and Napoli which will most likely get past group stages very easy.Also for the other teams like Bayern,Manchester,Arsenal and Barcelona which should come out easily of the group stages.Only the group of Newcastle will be very competitive and the most interesting I think.

It's a common pattern for every season - those who seeded from the first and second pot 90% of the time have no problem to qualify. Therefore, the group stage is in fact garbage and the games here are quite difficult to predict - the approximate distribution of places is clear in advance and the top clubs, without straining, allow themselves to lose one or two games. I don't like this stage of the tournament.
2860  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: September 02, 2023, 10:39:52 PM
I really don't know what to say about Chelsea anymore because this team even if it has massive talent , they really don't look like a team when they play and when they win , it's just from pure skill and not actually playing like a team. Today , they lost again and I think a new coach might come to Chelsea this Autumn to try and save the start of the season.

I wonder who can be lured into such a team? On the one hand, it looks damned, on the other hand, they have a good set of players and if the new coach is given power, he can achieve something with them. I think Poccetino has just a couple more rounds to fix the situation - if there are no victories with Bournemouth and Aston Villa, then he will probably be fired.
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