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1881  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 06, 2023, 11:37:51 AM
After this round, bookmakers completely wrote off Dortmund:

Fc Bayern Munich 1.25

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4.33

Borussia Dortmund 29.00

This seems fair since Kane has finally adapted and apparently Bayern has completely assembled the puzzle and is now a complete team. It is unlikely that Bayer will be able to keep up with Bayern's pace for long. Kane has every chance of breaking Lewandowski's record for goals in a season and against the backdrop of the fact that things are going badly for Lewandowski in Barcelona to prove Bayern right, which got rid of him.
1882  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: November 06, 2023, 11:32:15 AM
I think that now he is not thinking about the 2026 World Cup at all since Euro 2024 is ahead. 2026 looks like a fantasy (he will be 41 years old already?) There is no point in making such long-term plans. You can be 99% sure that he will lose a lot by this age. This is inevitable since physiology cannot be deceived. But theoretically he can be part of the team, sit on the bench and sometimes come on as a substitute at the end of the game.

Ok that's true, the Euro 2024 is the next step on his schedule, but I am sure since Ronaldo is this record junky, he will do everything to go to the World Cup as well and he will try to score the most goals as a 41 years old player at a World Cup. He wants all these records be attached to his name and he also wants to prove a lot things to his son. Now I have rarely seen a guy at his age with that level of fitness. Ibrahimovic retired at 41 and scored goals in Serie A and while Ronaldo can't break the record for the oldest scorer ever at a World Cup, he can break the record for most goals scored at that age at a World Cup. The biological reality supports your thesis more than mine for most people, but I think Ronaldo doesn't want to stop despite being a successful businessman. He wants to be on the pitch and play and earn money and recognition even when he says he doesn't have to prove anything anymore.

In fact, Ronaldo will not be able to become the oldest player to score in the World Cup, as this record now belongs to the Cameroonian Mila, who scored a goal at the age of 42. But he can score a goal in the playoffs (the record belongs to Pepe, who scored at the age of 39) and plus extend his record streak, which belongs solely to him: Ronaldo scored at 5 World Cups in a row.
1883  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: November 06, 2023, 11:22:42 AM
Questionable criteria (I’m not at all sure that they are applied as you highlighted). Assuming this is the case, then let's say a round where one boxer threw 100 punches and another zero would be counted as only 10-9 if the second boxer (with zero punches) was able to stay on his feet? You understand that this is absurd?
Fury landed just one punch in the third round. It's 8-10 automatically. Plus a knockdown, it should be 7-10.

Your criteria is even more absurd because in your hypothetical scenario a fighter could win a single round 10-0 and then run around the other 9 rounds doing next to nothing and still win by only losing those 9 rounds by a 9-10 score.

Why are you writing bullshit? I'm talking about a specific rule in effect (or maybe not) about the score 10-7 if there were two knockdowns. It seems extremely dubious to me.

Ngannou landed only 7 punches in that third round which is low even for a heavyweight.

Fury landed by round: 11 - 7 - 1 - 6 - 9 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 6
I see that this is a normal average figure, and not “low”. In general, I don’t care about this circus; I’m just annoyed when the rules justifying controversial decisions are “made up on the fly.” Or when the rules work in one place but not in another.
1884  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: November 05, 2023, 10:05:55 PM
I think there is only one thing that keeps his plan alive to play at the World Cup 2026 for Portugal and that is scoring goals for his national team. I am confident he will keep doing that, but if he scores a decent number of goals in the Saudi Professional League but gets into a prolonged crisis with his national team, I think it could be close for him. I still think that if he wants to go to the World Cup in 2026 he will be nominated because of his fanbase and all those people who want to see him there for a last time, but I would not be surprised if he loses is position in the first eleven if the goal numbers aren't convincing anymore. But I agree that until now he still is in great physical shape and a sudden decline seems rather unlikely.

I think that now he is not thinking about the 2026 World Cup at all since Euro 2024 is ahead. 2026 looks like a fantasy (he will be 41 years old already?) There is no point in making such long-term plans. You can be 99% sure that he will lose a lot by this age. This is inevitable since physiology cannot be deceived. But theoretically he can be part of the team, sit on the bench and sometimes come on as a substitute at the end of the game.
1885  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 05, 2023, 09:53:59 PM
This is the second defeat in a row of Stuttgart. The first defeat was against Hoffenheim where they were able to score two goals but this time they weren't successful vs Heidenheim. A defeat by 2 goals without scoring any goal was a bad result for Stuttgart. The absence of their main player Guirassy, who scored 14 goals, due to injury, made them look weaker and losing these matches..

Yes, his absence completely changed the club's performance and results. It's sad, but on the other hand, Stuttgart is still abnormally high and these results can be called a reversion to the mean.
Bayer continues to lead and renew the club's record winning streak. Union Berlin is surprising - in fact, they are already in the relegation zone and above Mainz only according to additional indicators.
1886  Local / Юристы / Re: Отслеживание через блокчейн в суде on: November 05, 2023, 01:29:18 PM
Что касается закона, то я вижу тут неустранимое противоречие: биткоин это то что обладает некоей совокупностью свойств (в том числе "не ваши ключи не ваши биткоины") если вы каким-то образом (путем принятия законов) часть этих свойств убираете, то соответственно речь идет уже не о биткоине. Вот такой парадокс.

Приписывание чему-то определённых свойств и обладание этого чего-то именно этими свойствами, — это разные вещи. Если есть некий объект, который не исчезает при изменении обстоятельств, которые считались для него критическими, это может говорить не только о перерождении объекта, но и о неправильности изначального анализа критических обстоятельств.

Абсолютно нет. Ибо объект А с какими-то "критическими" или некритическими свойствами не равен объекту А без этих свойств.
Объекты разные. Есть несколько разных версий шахмат (классические, Фишера, волшебные и т.д.) множество версий шашек (по количеству клеток поля различающихся и по правилам ходов) и все они являются абсолютно разными играми несмотря на то что какие-то отличия весьма мелки.
Так что удаляя из биткоина любое свойство (не важно критическое оно или нет) вы лишь создаете иную версию биткоина которая не равна первоначальной вообще никак.

А для суда для начала надо иметь какое-то юридическое определение биткойна, чтобы делать вывод, останется ли он биткойном или можно будет говорить о новой сущности.

Думаю суд может лишь решать легален ли набор свойств битка или нет. Грубо говоря суду похер можно ли совершать рокировку в шахматах через битое поле или нет, но вот если вы создадите версию шахмат, где соперника можно заточкой пырять, то она очевидно будет незаконной.
На данный момент решений судов о незаконности свойств битка я не видел  Smiley
1887  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: November 05, 2023, 01:03:26 PM
He wrote "this season" so there's no point in guessing what he meant. Newcastle is really strong, as are Arsenal, and also Liverpool + Tottenham. The problem is that they take points from each other, which works in City's favor.
As for titles, maybe Arsenal will win the Champions League this year, that possibility exists, plus it would be a really “fresh” event. After all, even City, which won the Champions League for the first time last year, is already completely boring to everyone.

That would be refreshing if Arsenal does at least reach the final. Whether they win it, that remains to be seen but having them in the final would be nice. I still think that having Manchester City in the final would be also nice because they would still have to prove they can defend it. I usually prefer final participants to be from different countries, but if it was Arsenal vs Manchester City, that would definitely be worth watching for many reasons.

Nope  Cheesy I won't even watch this final because Arsenal's winning percentage against City is too low for me to hope to not be disappointed with the result. In general, it will be good if all the major clubs meet again before the final so that we can see two-legged confrontations, and as for the final, I would be glad to see two underdogs there. But as always, there is a possibility that instead of an interesting finale we will see a fight between the favorite and the underdog.
1888  Local / Юристы / Re: Отслеживание через блокчейн в суде on: November 05, 2023, 12:53:52 PM
От использования этой возможности дальше его должны останавливать моральные устои или какое-то законодательство, привязывающие эти монетки и делающее их использование третьим лицом незаконным. Однако доказать, что отправил именно имярек, будет довольно сложно. То, что вероятность подбора чужого ключа ничтожна, не делает её совершенно невозможной...

Так вроде наоборот если человек достаточно морален и обладает волей он должен использовать монеты (якобы чужие). Иначе какой он криптоанархист?
Что касается закона, то я вижу тут неустранимое противоречие: биткоин это то что обладает некоей совокупностью свойств (в том числе "не ваши ключи не ваши биткоины") если вы каким-то образом (путем принятия законов) часть этих свойств убираете, то соответственно речь идет уже не о биткоине. Вот такой парадокс.

Этот парадокс я уже рассматривал подробно в теме Понятие собственности применительно к биткоину
1889  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: November 05, 2023, 12:37:09 PM
I wonder how one could interpret the statistics of the third round as 8-10? Isn't that 7 - 10? Moreover, if the judges had scored 7-10, then as a result of a split decision, the victory would have gone to Ngannou.


It was already explained by the poster prior to your post.

The scoring is not only decided in one round, Ngannou obviously won that round but it was only a 10-8 score in favor of him.

Let's take a look how it's scored in boxing here.
Quote
For each knockdown in a round, the judge deducts an additional point from the fighter knocked down, resulting in a 10–8 score if there is one knockdown or a 10–7 score if there are two knockdowns.

You see, when Fury went down once, the score was 10-8. If he had gone down twice, it would have been 10-7.

Questionable criteria (I’m not at all sure that they are applied as you highlighted). Assuming this is the case, then let's say a round where one boxer threw 100 punches and another zero would be counted as only 10-9 if the second boxer (with zero punches) was able to stay on his feet? You understand that this is absurd?
Fury landed just one punch in the third round. It's 8-10 automatically. Plus a knockdown, it should be 7-10.
1890  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: November 05, 2023, 12:28:43 PM
[
I think PSG is already ready to play without Mbappe: Ramouche, Kolo Muani and Dembele must solve all the issues in attack. And by the way, I think PSG planned to spend this season without Mbappe, but they underestimated Real and completely lost the “silent bidding” because they did not receive any offer from Real at all. I'am rooting againct PSG (I don’t like moneybags and cheaters), but I see that now they have begun to develop in the right direction: they take young good players and make a team. Given their money, they will quickly assemble a top talented team according to the City scheme: if a player does not show his talent to the required extent at PSG, then they get rid of him and buy the next one. When you sell stars and buy stars in return, the FFP is fully respected, although in fact it is very similar to cheating. The sale of Neymar is super lucky for PSG (although perhaps everything was rigged), and the fact that they got rid of Messi too - now their salary fund can take several excellent players instead of an extinct star.
Well if they planned spending the season without Mbappé don't see any reason why they'll punish him for having a secret deal against Realmadrid which gave him no option than to sign another contract for the team, they now his worth and what he has to offer for the team and so far it's favoured them cause Mbappé has really helped them this season,however it would only last this season cause Mbappé might be on his way to Realmadrid next summer.
~

But selling Mbappe (as PSG dreamed of) is another matter when Mbappe enters into a (secret) agreement with Real Madrid and leaves at the end of the season for free. Obviously, PSG was not happy with the second option at all. PSG wanted a completely inadequate amount for Mbappe (250 million) so now they will lose him for free. In this round, Real won a convincing victory.
1891  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: November 05, 2023, 10:42:01 AM
Out of curiosity I finally watched the replay of this fight. I was already a little sleepy but I became more sleepy watching the fight so I stopped scoring the fight. What a shameful performance by Tyson Fury. My hat's off to Ngannou. If only he was a little younger and had more time to practice the sport. There were a lot of close rounds in that fight that could go either way. Fury landed more but Ngannou landed the heavier shots and judges have their own ways of interpreting fights, especially on close rounds.

Here are the official scorecards. There are 5 rounds where the judges did not have the same assessment while in another 5 rounds, they unanimously agreed to each other.



Here is the punch stats of this fight. Maybe it helps in assessing the fight. Based on the stats I had it 95-94 for Fury.


After watching the fight I just can't believe the Saudis spent around a hundred million dollars for such a boring fight. Boxing just lost some casual fans that night. If only they watched the low-budget title fight of DAZN at Cancun, Mexico on the same day they would've stayed. The 11th-round exchange between WBC super featherweight champion O'Shaquie Foster and Eduardo Hernandez might win the round of the year.

I wonder how one could interpret the statistics of the third round as 8-10? Isn't that 7 - 10? Moreover, if the judges had scored 7-10, then as a result of a split decision, the victory would have gone to Ngannou.
For the Saudis this is a normal result, it would be much worse if someone won by knockout in the first round. And what happened suited everyone - 10 rounds, a lot of advertising and all that.
1892  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: November 05, 2023, 10:30:37 AM
Lewandowski is no longer the same as he was when he played in Bayern, age is taking its toll and just look at his numbers last year in La Liga - an astonishing result. A year has passed and I doubt that he has become stronger and not aged. Real doesn't have a top striker, so I personally now rate both City and Bayern higher than Real. But in general, surprises always happen in knockout games, so it’s far from certain that we will see these clubs play against each other again (I hope City will be knocked out earlier  Grin ).

I don't agree at all. You say Lewandowski had a good performance just when he was playing in Bayern Munich and after leaving Bayern Munich is not in the good form anymore in Barcelona which is completely wrong. Because I think Lewandowski had a good performance in Barcelona during last season and he was even the most effective player for Xavi and his team but we should not forget that Lewandowski is getting old and that's normal for any player to have a bad performance when he gets older.

 Grin The end of your message contradicts its beginning. The 23 goals he scored in La Liga last season is a ridiculous number. And he became the leader in the number of missed chances. This season he scored 5 goals in 12 games. It's a total sadness. I’m not saying that he’s completely bad, but he’s no longer the top and probably not the one who makes the difference, we’ll see at the end of the season, but apparently this season will be even worse for him than the previous one.
1893  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: November 05, 2023, 10:23:56 AM
Winning Real Sociedad, should it be considered a miracle or mere coincidence for Barcelona? I'm thinking it to be coincidence because these scenarios often happen infavour of Barcelona~

Barcelona is constantly balancing on the verge of losing points, and if last season everything ended successfully for them, then this year I would say that this is not “the luck of the champion” but simply a weak game. If we remember all their “accidental” victories, now they could be at the level of Betis. If Real wins today, then despite the unchanged distance between the clubs, I think Real's quotes will increase slightly again.
1894  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: November 05, 2023, 10:13:10 AM
Live odds have already increased to 1.85 for Milan to win. It's almost the 60th minute and I would say that the game is going until the first goal. The Udinese defenders cope well and only need one successful counter-attack. I like the bet on Udinese better with odds of 9.20, but I still wasn't planning on betting here.
It's sad that Inter continues to dominate in terms of results despite the fact that victories are quite difficult for them (like today).

Damn  Grin My prediction came true 100%. The value of this bet was obvious to me, but I didn’t think that it would be realized right away, and now I’m not in the mood to make long-term bets.
Milan played another match without scoring goals and I think we can already cross them out of the contenders for the title. They are in a serious crisis and you shouldn’t expect a comeback from them in the Champions League either.
1895  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 05, 2023, 10:05:08 AM
It is strange that the source of Real's official statement is Fabrizio Romano's Twitter. I'll probably wait a little when the situation clears up. Since the last time Mbappe refused to Real, it turned out that without him Real had options, but without Real Mbappe continues to fade away in the Parisian swamp and he has already regretted his refusals. Therefore, now in the proposed negotiations, Real may be in a stronger position than Mbappe, so I don’t see anything funny.
If this news happens to be true, then the possibility of the Kylian Mbappe joining Real Madrid next summer is very slim because if Real Madrid are still very much interested in the player, they wouldn't have published a disclaimer even if the news in the media isn't true.
I haven't confirmed if the news is true but if the statement is an official statement from the club, them Real Madrid might be lining up for another recognized striker to replace the their former striker Karim Benzema at the club.

I think Real's strategy (after they focused on Mbappe and abandoned Haaland, and he ended up deceiving them) is clear - they want to have a wide range of options and not depend on one player. Therefore, we will continue to see similar statements, plus Real will show interest in other strikers (fake or real) in order not to put themselves in a dependent position on Mbappe. Now Real's position is strong: they have assembled a squad that can dominate in the coming years. In Europe, the only thing missing is a striker who will skim the cream at the club's expense (those who score goals always attract more attention than those who make it possible), and Mbappe has what he has. ? He is getting old and new stars are already appearing that can supplant him, he is fading away at PSG, he won’t go to City because of Haaland, to Bayern because of their economical policy, etc. I don't see any good options for him.
1896  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Out of curiosity, how much you wagered recently? on: November 05, 2023, 09:56:21 AM
What interests me is that if we take a 1% house edge, he should have lost at least $140 million. But he boasts that in the last year and a half he has won 300 million. Maybe he's lying? Why should he stream if he has a quarter of a billion dollars + 50 million on top. And the article also says that he made 7.5 million bets - this is a huge distance and he cannot be profitable on it purely mathematically.
Basically just speaking on the house edge and the amount wagered then it is really that talking about multi-millions on which from that alone then we could really say that he had already lost that big.
This is really that hard thing on online world on which every information couldn't really be that exactly be precise or just simply telling the truth. Lets assume that this one is legit
then there's no way for us to reach out on what these people been able to do so. There are rich people there are average and poor ones. There's no such thing in speaking about equality
yet this had been always a normal thing on todays society on where it is really that divided basing up into your financial capacity.

For me then total wagered for this year is already playing around $1000+ and im not really that a heavy gambler. Amount might be small but this is
only the money on which i could really that afford to lose. If those people do able to make such huge spending that only elite people could do then just let them be.
Its their money that had been used not ours. It is really just that there are people who do really love on seeing these spectacular amounts.

The house edge works the same way for both a rich gambler and a poor one, there is no inequality here. I would like to know more details about his gambling, but knowing that he is a “twitch streamer” it is naive to believe that we will ever know any truth. They all work for their own image and no one needs the truth here. And I will continue to adhere to the opinion that purely mathematically, his results are unrealistic, 100% there is some nuance that is hidden from the public.
1897  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: November 05, 2023, 09:50:24 AM
Arsenal have already lost this season (to Lens in the Champions League) so this is not the first defeat. But that doesn't really matter, the important thing is that if you take the percentage of points they get now - 72% is pretty good and even often enough to win the title in many leagues, but it is definitely lower than the percentage that is needed when your opponent is City. Now all hopes must be directed towards Tottenham and hope that they will create the greatest meme (title after Kane's departure)  Grin

If he meant the first in EPL and this is the first lost of arsenal. Glad to see that anthony gordon has become a nightmare for arsenal in this match. Totenham is the only team that is holding a record being unbeaten till this time. It will be facing chelsea.
It will be so good to see chelsea will able to play better than the previous match to beat totenham. Son and maddison are the only threats from totenham. My feeling said if manchester city will be winning the trophy again this season.

City is now having three points gap toward arsenal at this moment. It's a very good result for the newcastle to beat gordon. That proves that if newcastle is also very strong at this moment.

Arsenal potentially become trophyless club again this season. I have no doubt about that.

He wrote "this season" so there's no point in guessing what he meant. Newcastle is really strong, as are Arsenal, and also Liverpool + Tottenham. The problem is that they take points from each other, which works in City's favor.
As for titles, maybe Arsenal will win the Champions League this year, that possibility exists, plus it would be a really “fresh” event. After all, even City, which won the Champions League for the first time last year, is already completely boring to everyone.
1898  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Out of curiosity, how much you wagered recently? on: November 04, 2023, 09:30:48 PM
I think we have a winner here:

Tyler “Trainwreckstv” a prominent Twitch streamer, has allegedly embarked on an extraordinary gambling journey, with a jaw-dropping $14 billion in bets placed on the online crypto gambling platform

I saw people wagering a lot of money, but this guy took it to some higher levels... How can we compete in some wagering wars and competitions against players who wager so much? Do we even have a chance? Smiley

What interests me is that if we take a 1% house edge, he should have lost at least $140 million. But he boasts that in the last year and a half he has won 300 million. Maybe he's lying? Why should he stream if he has a quarter of a billion dollars + 50 million on top. And the article also says that he made 7.5 million bets - this is a huge distance and he cannot be profitable on it purely mathematically.
1899  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: November 04, 2023, 09:18:45 PM
If I'm not wrong, it was the first loss for Arteta and his players in this season, and for the first time during this season, Arsenal lost a game. But I think they will feel regret later for losing his points because right now they are in third place in the Premier League and other teams like Manchester City and Tottenham had perfect performances in this season and they obviously will try to don't let Arsenal to have the chance to reach the first place of the table easily.



Arsenal have already lost this season (to Lens in the Champions League) so this is not the first defeat. But that doesn't really matter, the important thing is that if you take the percentage of points they get now - 72% is pretty good and even often enough to win the title in many leagues, but it is definitely lower than the percentage that is needed when your opponent is City. Now all hopes must be directed towards Tottenham and hope that they will create the greatest meme (title after Kane's departure)  Grin
1900  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 04, 2023, 09:12:49 PM
It is strange that the source of Real's official statement is Fabrizio Romano's Twitter. I'll probably wait a little when the situation clears up. Since the last time Mbappe refused to Real, it turned out that without him Real had options, but without Real Mbappe continues to fade away in the Parisian swamp and he has already regretted his refusals. Therefore, now in the proposed negotiations, Real may be in a stronger position than Mbappe, so I don’t see anything funny.
They didn't clear the whole rumors earlier in the summer when they were said to had made a secret negotiation with Mbappé so why now, well I think it's either they're trying not to make their interest for the player public or maybe they've seen a better alternative or they're no more interested in signing him into their club,however Kylian Mbappé would really make a fine player for Madrid and it would be very lovely to see him playing for the club.

 But I'm not really convinced about the news yet even though it's from Fabrizio Romano,cause I've seen I  previous time where similar news is said about a certain player but he still end joining the club, so let's keep our fingers crossed until summer to see where Mbappé would end up but I think there's still possibility of him joining Madrid.

As I understand it, the existence of negotiations with the player is important in a legal sense (for some of the parties), so we will not know the truth (it can be harmful for one party of the negotiations or both). I would be glad to see the end of this series now, but yes, we will have to wait for the summer and at the moment the likelihood that Mbappe will end up in Real Madrid is greater than all other options. While I'm increasingly liking the idea of Haaland joining Real Madrid, he's not getting the respect he deserves at City.
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