number of investors logged in at mtgox (double normal) Source? |
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For whatever it worth. Warning: crazy unfounded speculation below.
Wanna to hear some unconfirmed and crazy rumour?
Some Russian oligarch started accumulating some bitcoins today, bought like 8k BTC today so far. Perhaps going to accumulate some more and than make some announcements that some mironation accepts BTC as "official" currency.
Burn shorts! Burrn! lol.
Source? |
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Bitcoin IS NOT A CURRENCY.
Bitcoin is no generally accepted medium of exchange.
Bitcoin is no unit of account.
Bitcoins cannot be held longer than a few minutes without being subject to potentially huge losses.
Noone is paid in Bitcoins.
Noone lives on Bitcoins.
This is what Bitcoin is: USD => BTC => USD
It’s a payment method for fiat money. A USD proxy. Nothing more, currently.
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Well, you were wrong.
3$ new support level now?
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This is the second time I witness it.
Someone keeps putting up several k of asks at exactly 3$, and someone tried bringing the market down by selling a bunch.
This is exactly what happened back at 7$. Someone killed the rally simply by selling 10k or so into the market, then setting up a big ask wall.
I am certain that whoever this is, it is not profit oriented. No human with greed intact trades like this. It is selling at critical points to eliminate a deeper rally. I am almost certain that this is an entity with an interest of keeping Bitcoin down.
Let’s see if he succeeds.
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We're not going to make it beyond $3. Go ahead, watch.
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before? Also, what will you do if it does break 3$? Not that I’m saying you are wrong. This situation reminds me exactly of what happened at 7$. |
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I agree with you, at some point it simply turns completely irrational. Fundamentally, I believe this point has been reached.
Or perhaps someone might explain to me why people in October, after all publicity we have had, new infrastructure, new businesses, new development (hell, we even have Gavin working fulltime now) etc., should be able to purchase Bitcoins cheaper than the guys in April?
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HAHAHA This reminds me of the miners who wanted to simply collectively move their asks higher when Bitcoin was dropping.  |
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Referring to your OP: This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse. The thing with the downtrend we had since June is that it’s been a slow, sustained bleeding. It reflects the permabullish mentality many here share, always buying back the Bitcoins. I don’t know if this trend is going to be broken; it’ll depend on how big the core of true Bitcoin supporters is. |
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it starts off slow, with plenty of downside retraces to lure the shorts back in. the price ramps are short but vicious destroying small pockets quickly. Zhoutong will assist greatly in this by liquidating his shorts to protect himself, much to the chagrin and anger of his acct holders. the shorts that have made lots of money in the past refuse to believe whats happening and imperceptibly don't notice their green balances being whittled away. arrogance sets in, like this guy Nagle, but pretty soon those green balances turn red.
denial turns to anger turns to arrogance turns to fear turns to capitulation. the psychology is wonderful to watch.
Sounds exactly like what we bulls experienced in June, but now even you admit it’s been a bubble?  Anyway, it’s not like I’m not enjoying this. Let’s see if we can reclaim this long-term trendline! Breaking 3 atm. The last time we broke 3, we went parabolic to 32$. |
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This is the first time in BTC history that a major crash occured and there was no close with a bounce up in the daily chart, but instead settling in the area of the old low.
I’d say that is a clear confirmation of the broken long term trend. I could see Bitcoin’s spiral of price decrease => loss of interest continue further, as big early miners and speculators continue to take their profits, until the very core of Bitcoin supporters is left. I don’t know when this could be, because I believe that even lots of the early Bitcoiners were only here due to the long term trend, and we know that 1 year ago, the people here sustained a price of 6 cents.
93% off the high, so far. Soon, we will see how much of Bitcoin is based on greed.
It is my opinion that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, there will not be any worthy successor. We had one shot with the public.
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you know that big money is waiting on the sidelines for the perfect time to buy and buy hard.
I’m just wondering what the perfect time is? The 4.18 double bottom with capitulation sell volume looked pretty convincing, and yet it didn’t progress beyond 7/6.8, implying there was no big money involved. |
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Can you draw me a long-term trendline up?  |
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S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
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Ragnar = Atlas parody from SA
Can we finally move on now?
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"Ragnar Redbeard", btw, is an obvious SA troll, please ignore him. Though he does accurately parody many libertarians in here. I almost took him seriously.
I just think Satoshi fucked up the first part of the curve. The very first adopters are those who are interested in the tech etc., the ones who build the system and gather knowledge. They don’t need financial incentive, and certainly not one that equals Peak Bitcoin Rate/number of earliest adopters. I think this created a disparity that only strengthened the perception of a "pyramid scheme".
My first reaction to Bitcoin was that I thought it’s really cool – this NEW p2p digital currency was a novel idea. Then I found out that such a large portion of it was already distributed, and coupled with the extreme disparity where 6 months make such a huge difference and the runup to 1.1$, I almost turned away from it.
The early adopters aren’t important, they come anyway because they are genuinely interested. What’s important is reaching the EARLY MAJORITY, crossing the chasm. We almost managed to do that, but it is apparent now that we have failed.
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If it does become widely adopted, should all the work done up until this point be dismissed as useless? Were it not for this work, would it ever become adopted in the first place? It’s certainly not work that ought to be rewarded with 1% to 0.1% of the money supply. Is this a fact or an opinion? Opinion of course. You may, like many people, hail the people who got in with a mere CPU in 2010 as the great early adopters who took the incredible risk of volatile exchange rates, exchange hacks, MyBitcoin, b-OH WAIT. That’s right, it’s the latecomers (May+) who took the true risk and got nothing in this system! Another difference between Gold and Bitcoin I forgot to mention: When the Gold Rush happened, the people who made the real money were not the first miners, but the merchants who supplied goods and enabled commerce. In Bitcoin, it is apparent that whoever now steps up and supplies goods/services will never be able to catch up with people like Satoshi or knightmb, or less extreme, someone who mined 30k BTC. It is also worth thinking about "marginal utility of BTC incentive" vs. "disincentive for latecomers" due to how the system is made up. There probably is some sweet point in between where the transition becomes most fluent and non-problematic, but I believe that Bitcoin has had such overkill incentive that it degenerated into a pyramid-scheme like thing. For the sentiment this has caused, check https://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-a-good-idea |
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If it does become widely adopted, should all the work done up until this point be dismissed as useless? Were it not for this work, would it ever become adopted in the first place? Donating some CPU cycles to a project before the world knows about it is not work. Difficulty was 1 for a whole year: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.pngPeople do the same for free for folding@home etc. It’s certainly not work that ought to be rewarded with 1% to 0.1% of the money supply. The truth is that the Bitcoin generation curve does not model a natural resource in that we started out with "Peak Bitcoin" rate in 2009. Now guess the relation of how many people there were in 2009 and how many people there are now - that’s the ROI. Normally, the extraction of ressources models a sigmoid curve where the Peak production is approached as the extraction becomes more efficient. In Gold, an equivalent to Satoshi et al. would have been the first gold miner who doesn’t even own a pickaxe, but just finds and carries 1% of the Gold supply home with his own hands. Laughable. Donating some CPU cycles to a project is also, at least for most people in the first world, not risk. I have mentioned this many times, and the generation curve enhances the disparity by the quickness of "Internet Speed" and the fact that the pool of users was very small to begin with. |
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BitterTea, why are you still arguing with that troll from SA? He obviously doesn’t believe the BS he spouts.
I’m surprised at how incredibly susceptible many Bitcoiners still are to this.
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What about that? It's important to note the difference between a stable price and an unstable one. For example, I have stated that if the price stays below $5 for a significant period of time, which is at least a week, it's a sign of the long-term switching to "neutral". A price below $4 for more than a week, then I'd say down. Price below $4 for a month would mean abandon ship.
This is how I've seen it for the past weeks and so far none of those scenarios have happened so the long-term is clearly up. Instead of new lows we've actually had a couple of rallies which is a sign that we are getting closer to a bigger break-out.
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