It'll be a while.

Moving money from the same person's address to another address doesn't have to do anything with "transactions".

266.00000

News is perceived differently depending on the juncture of the market. It is not the cause, only the trigger.

Also, some of those things you listed did nothing, or they were reversed immediately. An example is the DHS/Dwolla news and the VCs/the conference. You could create a bigger list of events that ended up in that category.

Still haven't penetrated the local high.

I fully agree. Fundamental analysis is not useful with Bitcoin.

This reflects my experience.

There is no such thing as a "Bitcoin economy".

Now what this means is that there is an ability to trade currency IOUs with each other. However, one exchange will still have far more currency than another, and so, the IOUs should be limited if 1:1. It does not change the true bottleneck that is transferring national currency from one exchange to another on a macro scale, and so I think natural monopolies will still emerge. It's great for arbitrage though.

For example, if people wanted to switch from MtGox to Bitstamp via Ripple (if MtGox functioned within Ripple), this would of course not be possible, and so even if the valuation was 1:1 on the USD, the ratio would reflect the ratio of the USD on both exchanges. This makes sense of course if people really thought MtGox insolvent, since even 0.2 would be a good deal then.

So all in all, it's nice for price arbitrage and for taking advantage of an existing order book for IOU vs. IOU if one of its issuer goes insolvent.

@cypher; TF

Interesting, so the gateways will need even more expensive regulation to comply with than existing Bitcoin currency exchanges? That would be a massive hurdle. And of course it would make for even bigger monopolies than already exist on the Bitcoin market (MtGox). Everyone would be shut down until the first exchanger arrives that deals with all the regulatory issues.

Ah, I see the problem of my example.

When I send currency from Bitstamp into the Ripple system, it vanishes from my Bitstamp balance and appears in Ripple. To reappear, I have to send it from Ripple to Bitstamp. Forgot about that. So, if the Ripple account balances work fine, this is not an issue.

I'll have to think about the ramifications.

Why, how is it different from the licenses required for exchanges like MtGox? Do you mean that the people who do market arbitrage via the Ripple system need such a license?

You forget that XRPs require no trust.

Thanks for that post, I didn't realize exchanging IOUs was possible. Now things get complicated and I have to think.

Say I exchange my USD.Bitstamp for USD.Foobit. Now the appropriate balances on my Ripple account and the Ripple accounts of my counterparties have changed. How do Bitstamp and Foobit reflect this on their account balances? I assume they would be saying I own 1 USD.Foobit and 0 USD.Bitstamp. Then, I go to Bitstamp and send my USD.Bitstamp from my Ripple address to theirs and they update my balance to 1 USD.Bitstamp.

For this system to work, the balances at Gateways need to be linked to the balances on Ripple, and the sync time must be smaller than the time it takes to make a withdrawal from the exchange interface, or otherwise they lose money. Is that the case with Bitstamp today?

That liquidity goes for the XRP part, but the other currencies are tied to the gateway as an IOU afaik. That's why I would think there will be inertia and natural monopolies will emerge, and also because some gateway will be most trusted, like MtGox is. In the Bitcoin system, it is already the case that Bitcoins can move freely (well, awaiting a few confirmations), and yet MtGox is king after years.

Wouldn't this give you IOUs of different issuers? So that to redeem them, you would have to create an account with each issuer.


Just don't hide that XRP are an alternative currency/store of value. There's already a VPN that accepts them.

I agree. What I have a problem with is that XRP are not marketed as an alternative but something of a byproduct. I suspect that this PR will change once the Ripple system is more widely used, and begin shifting to advertise XRP as a BTC alternative.


I don't know, we haven't seen the performance of the internal Ripple market place yet under stress. However, Ripple does not solve natural monopolies and its side effects. As more gateways emerge, we will simply have a new MtGox everyone goes to for the liquidity (which is currently bitstamp, as opposed to weex).


I do believe they are parasites, but I do not believe they are intellectually dishonest because they market themselves as what they are: an alternative currency. OpenCoin is marketing XRP as nothing at all except a mechanism to prevent network spam by requiring XRP for accounts and transactions. Meanwhile, they plan to make profit with 30% of all Ripples because they know it would acquire value, and this it will probably do so from Bitcoin.

And this is my main problem with the "spin" and why I call it intellectually dishonest.

I think the PR work OpenCoin is doing is really good, because they are appealing to people's dislike of MtGox's status and naivities of "decentralized exchanges". The main narrative is "we are not here to threaten you, we only want to help Bitcoin". Meanwhile, they are holding on to at least 30% of all Ripples hoping to make money off them in the future, ie have them appreciate in value. It's clever, really.

The truth about the decentralized exchanges is that while Ripple performs a slick unified interface, the exchanges themselves are still just that, centralized market places, subject to theft, legal issues, etc.

You can come over to my non-censored (no self-moderation) thread, cypher: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=211596.0

This thread is in response to misterbigg's thread since he decided to delete my following message (why he did that, I don't think there is a purpose to ask) in his self-moderated thread:

"Stop deceiving Bitcoiners. In the Ripple system, Bitcoins can only be held as IOUs, they are subject to counterparty risk. Only Ripples are devoid from counterparty risk, while they also are needed to maintain an account balance and conduct transactions (fee). If the Ripple system becomes the main way to interact with Bitcoin, the market will inevitably begin valuing Ripples higher, as they share all the advantages of Bitcoin with none of the disadvantages. Bitcoin usage would shrink, since it has no purpose really.

Ripple does not complement Bitcoin. Ripple is more of a parasite that feeds off Bitcoin until it can stand on its own.

You have said it yourself in the past. Within Ripple, XRP is superior to BTC.

OpenCoin is trying to apply a spin of coexisting to bootstrap themselves, but make no mistake, their business model is to hold XRP (30% is what they promise) until they appreciate in value. Ripples are not meant as mere tokens, but in the same way as Bitcoin a scarce asset, only without proof of work and its disadvantages.

Stop the intellectual dishonesty and say it like it is.

XRP is a direct competitor to BTC."

Convertibility/Liquidity is part of the value of an asset/currency like Bitcoin. Drugs have an intrinsic consumption value and Dollars are an established world reserve currency. Bitcoin derives a (large?) part of its value from convertability, and currently this is most reliant on mtgoxUSD. A hit on that would be a hit on its use value as a medium of exchange as well as an investment option.

Is this real life? First Humble Bundle, now EFF.

 

I took notice of it, but the price on Bitstamp is following MtGox's. It may simply be a matter of competition with MtGox shrinking a little as people have more concern.

Bullish for the short term at least. We've overcome a major horizontal resistance.

Breakout.

I concede this is going differently than 2011.

They can. International Bank Transfers are working fine.

The price is genuinely increasing, it's not because of a "bank run". This is evidenced in that there is no major decoupling of MtGox from other exchanges. That MtGox leads the price a bit is normal.