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4221  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador Approve LongpAwaited Bitcoin bond on: January 12, 2023, 11:56:48 AM
the ATH and the correction were not el-salv related

it was big corp whales of mid 2021 buying. and then shorting in 2022
they held the price below a $17k wall q3-s4 2022 because they had futures bets on that the price will be below $17 by year end. so needed to keep the spot price down to win bets.

..
however el-salv could have used the time time of q3-s4 2022 to buy cheap coin. and then when the un-walled rise occurs they reach their goals to finance their projects easier

el salv president only holds under 2400btc
yet there are other investors that bought a heck of alot more then 2.5k coins in 2021

we have michael saylor who bought hundred thousand plus
DCG(greyscale) added a couple hundred thousand to its trust after 2020
tesla has 10k coins+

black rock, and others too have more coin then el salvador
4222  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - a bloodless revolution on: January 12, 2023, 10:14:08 AM
so you pick the one joker card to pretend the whole deck are not playing cards

but hey the moon has seen man stand on it lets do a doomad and say because the moon didnt use petitions which man can stand by... so that must mean earth, where man also stands must have no peaceful atmosphere or space to breathe, nor able to walk freely without a tether

you must realise in the number of years of living, you have had ample chance in life to learn things. like history

even in india's british empire of a century ago. they used petitions.
even in the civil war days of america. it was not throwing tea off a boat. it was a petition that changed british rule

the womans suffragettes... again petitions.. not chains
4223  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is here to stay on: January 12, 2023, 08:19:08 AM
bitcoins VALUE was not the ATH

bitcoins PREMIUM was the ATH

value is found at the bottom, premium found at the top

bitcoin did not lose 60% value in 2021-2022

bitcoins value raised from about a $10k- $15k value bottom(below market)
and bitcoin temporarily found a new premium of $70k in 2021

bitcoins market cap is a meaningless number. there was not "wiping off of xxxbillion value

..
please try to use the right terminology. you seem to have everything upside down and also thinking there was some trillion dollar reserve that got wiped
4224  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - a bloodless revolution on: January 12, 2023, 07:27:09 AM
MODERN revolutions/political change does not happen the way media portrays them

ghandi
suffragettes

did you know that it was not the sole act of fasting.. nor woman chained to a fence. that changed marked events of history
nor is it street protests either
nor riots
nor assassinating presidents
nor arson
not chaos

what actually happens is outside of whats revealed in modern media.. is 2 things. called petitioning and lobbying

yep while media tells people to walk the streets and protest. they should instead be telling people to sign petitions to get their representatives to act. whereby legally a petition of certain threshold cannot be ignored..
unlike protests and fasting and other crap stuff media tell people to do

yes in some cases the protesting and fasting then makes those in the know get emotionally involved to want to petition/lobby.. but its the petition/lobby part thats crucial. not the stuff media show that happens on the streets
4225  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans are once again quitting their jobs at a growing rate on: January 12, 2023, 06:16:18 AM
I am sure many have experienced this but how many times did you go to some Restaurant or Fast food place and there are signs it’s either closed or short staffed and wait times are longer? Or you go to some business and the person working there has no clue how to do anything and tells you “sorry I just got hired here and just figuring everything out”? Probably happens a lot.

And you can see how the cycle is going. A low wage worker quits and gets a better job. And the first job had a vacancy and the only way they can survive is to pay more. So wage growth goes up. And both jobs have low productivity workers because they are new and this is stagflation pretty much.

if a restaurant made good food in the first place it would self sustain
restaurants that make poor cheap bland food natural see customer shrinkage thus then see income shrinkage that then see lay-offs and eventually close due to unsustainability

as for staffing
hiring people in 2019, training them up adding in costs of pensions and other employment benefits puts some employees way above min wage in 2021.. when a business needs to go back to bare bones lowering outgoings and increase income.. they need to kill off the dead wood. first they need to remove the main large cost employees and swap for cheap labour. not the opposite

the only time the opposite is true is when they want to rejuvenate, renovate, rebrand or re-open under new management as a offering good food again to grab more customers again
this requires a large investment and training and benefits
in more cases than not.. businesses opt for the first option. to decrease outgoings

most of the time you cant just legally lay-off someone for bland reason. without offering a severance/compensation. so easiest way to get rid of dead wood and do it cheap, annoy the heck out of them until they leave out of their own free will
(stop offering overtime, promotions, flexitime. change their shift schedules. ask them to do work favours during breaks)
4226  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 15M BTC goes into self custody on: January 12, 2023, 05:55:46 AM
update

using the "bitcoin richlist"
the top 3 categories
january 2022
[100,000 - 1,000,000)   793,314 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,262,241 BTC   
[1,000 - 10,000)   4,630,567 BTC   

december 2nd
[100,000 - 1,000,000)   672,354 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,072,651 BTC
[1,000 - 10,000)   5,177,623 BTC

december 18th
[100,000 - 1,000,000]   684,123 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,291,459 BTC
[1,000 - 10,000)   4,601,707 BTC

january 12th 2023
[100,000 - 1,000,000]   668,306 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,306,719 BTC
[1,000 - 10,000)   4,573,406 BTC

which is a total of
Jan 2022 7922628
dec 2nd: 7686122  (average 770 a day removed(jan-dec day avg))
dec 18th: 7577289 (average 6800 a day removed(dec day avg))
jan 12th: 7548431 (average 1154 a day removed(dec-jan day avg))

there were 7.92m in large hold addresses (services, custodians) last january
out of 19.26m circulation means that 11.34mill were more likely a number in "self custody"

there are 7.54m in large hold addresses (services, custodians) this month
out of 19.26m circulation means that 11.72mill were more likely a number in "self custody"
4227  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador Approve LongpAwaited Bitcoin bond on: January 12, 2023, 05:44:10 AM
After this news broke, I think we should expect more bullish trend in the market for now.
What is your opinion?
El Salvador is not a significant enough force to be able to create a bullish trend, specially in the current market that is filled with FUD and panicked buyers who are still too scared to get in after their panic sale at the bottom.

if an iphone was $700 in 2021. and now selling for $180.. are you a panicking buyer. or do you see it as nice discount, cheap value compared to a temporary 2021 premium

yes the next cycles iphone will be reaching a higher premium and also its bottom value would be more this this cycles bottom value.. but by buying now at this generation(cycles) discount. and just holding onto it. you get to have the free upgrade at the next cycle(generation of iphone)..
thus your cheap iphone now will be exchangeable for the same premium/value new cycle iphone..
..so what are you afraid of

#BuyLowSellHigh
#BuyTheDip
4228  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador Approve LongpAwaited Bitcoin bond on: January 12, 2023, 05:34:51 AM
Maybe this is one reason why the price is going up in the last 24 hours? it's now climbing above $18k.

So yeah, this could be a welcoming news for everyone. And again, El Salvador never ceases to amaze us with this bitcoin adoption.

it was held down not by spot market. but by the futures/options market. of those large investors doing bets that the price would stay under $17k. and so as a side hustle to ensure it were wash trading small amounts to keep the numbers low on the spot exchanges. so that their contracts, when they expired at the new year, would win them their bets

now their contracts have ended, they no longer need to wall the spot market down

..
as for not offering a bond during a cheap season.. sounds odd for them to say "fears of bear" "brutal bear"
bears are only bad for those already invested. bears are perfect for new/future investors

Bitcoin-backed bond aka Volcano bond is not interesting for me.

If you want Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin.

Don't considering to buy Wrapped Bitcoin tokens or Bitcoin-backed bond.
GBTC from Grayscale is not safe.

If El Salvador go with their national bankruptcy, how will their bond investors can get their initial capital?

It is more correct to call their bond as El-Salvador-backed bond, not Bitcoin-backed bond.

The country has very high Government Debt to GDP
Government debt to GDP
It's more than 84%. Will they be fine next few years?

the way it plays out is that (at current 18k price
el-salv government buys BITCOIN to a tune of 56k btc

the bonds are backed by this amount. which when the bond expiry comes. users get X% of btc future value based on how many % of bond they have.

thus best to buy bitcoin in a down market. and not at the hype market of a ATH period

Despite the initial joy, what remains to be seen now is whether this bond, which is a by-product, will be bought.

Bitcoin-backed bond aka Volcano bond is not interesting for me.

If you want Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin.

I don't find it interesting either and I think you are right in your argument. I think that they are betting heavily on bitcoin and that part of their success, with possible debt reduction, is dependent on the attraction of foreign investment in bitcoin and a recovery in the price, which I think is going to happen this year.

bitcoiners that wont be visiting el-salv. see the benefit of this as so:
a. a country needing to buy 50k+ coins in a short period of time (market demand growth)
b. a country sustaining itself without needing IMF relief(loans) then inspires other countries(snowball effect)
c. more countries adopting bitcoin and classifying legal tender, = more countries accepting bitcoin as legal
4229  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 12, 2023, 05:17:11 AM
ok seems someone is on a social drama craze and not a fact finding craze
ok, ill add you to the list of people that dont care about learning..
..
moving on

luckily bitcoin is not fungible though. otherwise this thief might actually get away with the stolen funds. maybe someday they'll invent a technology that allows bitcoins to be turned into fungible bitcoins if someone uses a particular transaction type or address type. now that would be something. but only responsible people need apply. people that know how to manage their money... Angry

fungibility is not a boolean option of yes or no. its a sliding scale
..
from a legal prospective. legacy has keys and signatures. thus in legal terms.. property law, privacy laws can apply if fought in court
recent transaction formats only have witness statements(scripts) and passphrases(access not ownership). so even saying your the witness/accessor doesnt mean your the owner/victim.

luckily luke used legacy so he can be owner/victim of theft. unlike those using new style formats

yes there could be new transaction formats that come with their own terminology to not be defining their held value as a currency, asset, commodity, but as property. and businesses can classify deposits of that format as such classification. to separate value into different piles/allotments for different purposes

but to then limit who can use such format. then presents its own problems of a decentralised open system

but to awaken people to such notions and possibilities and also awaken them to how things actually stand now legally.. needs educating people into the actual events of the past and present... and no, not the versions they read on social media version of events that did not occur the way the social media are presenting them
4230  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When will Sam Bankman-Fried go to jail? on: January 12, 2023, 05:08:58 AM
It appears the quickness and speed of how long the regulators act on a case also depends on who were scammed by the scammers. Sam Bankrupt-Fried has chosen the wrong people to scam hehehehe. According to some news articles, the investors that Sam scammed included Robert Kraft the owner of the New England Patriots, Tom Brady the quarterback of Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his super model wife Gisselle Bünchen, Joe Tsai the cofounder of Alibaba and other sports celebrities.

Do Kwon might have done it correctly because he only scammed his users and his fellow ponzi schemers hehe. It is speculated that he is in Singapore.

FTX was never "big" in regards to customer numbers (ftx 1.2m customers vs coinbase 60m vs binance 25m)
FTX was never "big" in regards to asset numbers (FTX 20k btc vs greyscale 640k vs binance 575k)

but yes FTX services big names, big corporate accounts. and so yes FTX got "big fame" and now big charges

most scammers know. to avoid lengthy court sentences. keep value low
many prefer to scam under $1k a user because its not financially worth taking someone to court for $1k if the court costs are more then $1k a user, even in a class action(the lawyers end up the only winners)

scam bank-man fraud. got too greedy and wanted to rub shoulders and backstab the same shoulder too much
4231  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Libertarians -- where are they now? on: January 12, 2023, 04:43:55 AM
bitcoin 2009-2014 was legally undefined as currency, thus property law was 9-10ths of the law .. which was great.
property law also included things like privacy law.

now its legally jumping from property to currency to asset to commodity. means bitcoin now gets regulated as such and property law no longer protects users value. especially with legal terminology thats not about possession and keys. and instead witness statements

legally
if your just providing a witness statement to the movement of value. its not your value. your just an observer
yes its proof it happened but not proof you own it

bank secrecies act(currency law) makes currency one of the things not protected by thinks like privacy law. thus businesses can invade privacy of those using currency with them

alot has changed in the last 8 years. alot of things have been redefined.
and it would take alot of education to get the masses to realise the impositions that have been imposed, for them to want to lobby for change back to how things were.

greed of the capitalist however wont want that change backwards, and capitalism has over taken as the "mass"

take satoshis message in the genesis block. about how he wanted bitcoin to be different than the banking system
and yet 2022 we see things like FTX, DCG do the same value shuffling co-mingling, stealing, mismanagement.. just like the pre 2008 fiat bankers

..
yes the ecosystem can diversify and decentralise again.. and lobby to reclassify legally again as property, and redefine terminology to regain legal status as such definitions.. other things can happen like take away cores hierarchy governership and return to self govern by random wallets utilising and uniting in consensus without needing a central general
yes its all 'possible' but will it happen?

it requires the masses to be educated to motivate the masses to want to change things
4232  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Libertarians -- where are they now? on: January 12, 2023, 04:26:48 AM
when everyone has a "right"(responsibility), and a right(direction)
who's "right" way?
which right way?



reminding people that when there is a disagreement. that consensus (consent via mass survey) solves the byzantine generals problem. and not putting in a reference general that decides what the soldiers should follow
4233  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 12, 2023, 04:12:18 AM
ok seems someone is on a social drama craze and not a fact finding craze
ok, ill add you to the list of people that dont care about learning..
..
moving on

4234  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 12, 2023, 12:16:59 AM
ha ha ha.. a snippit out of context

you missed the parts where he said others gave him the idea
you missed the parts where he said he doubted HE could do it

you also missed the "can" and "if" and just thought it meant "will" and "dont care about"

and you are not understanding the "we" involved in the statement you snipped

and you ignored that he said that his priorities were first to secure the security holes in the system/

and how just hours later he told everyone he is not doing it...

thus it didnt happen. it was a non event and the idea was not even his idea

.. but hey i guess the full context of the facts of the actual social drama HOURS of may 8th 2019 dont matter. becasue instead some tweet/social thing your read in 2023 means more than facts of actual events of 3year 7 months ago..


its like this
larry:"someone told me to jump off a bridge. its possible in the next few days, im just concerned if the bungee rope wont break and damage my head when i fall"
8 hours later
"i spoke with the people about concerns and im not going to jump off a bridge"

4 years later
latery is a suicidal maniac he wants to jump off a bridge this year becasue he said he would kill himself 4 years ago
4235  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador Approve LongpAwaited Bitcoin bond on: January 12, 2023, 12:09:10 AM
i find it weird that for the 6 months of 2022 where alot of "shorters" were then doing deals and bets. to hold the price at under $17k. which allowed 6 months of buying cheap coins ..but, this legislation only passes now the ankle cuffs are removed and the price can rise again(somewhat)

i hope he took the initiative and bought 60k coins below $17k so he can instantly reap the benefits now that bitcoins price is not as shackled as it was

im all for people buying at whatever price they want above value. but when there was a great opportunity for a country to invest. seems like they wasted a few months waiting out for something that made them lose the best deal they could get 2022+
4236  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Libertarians -- where are they now? on: January 11, 2023, 11:46:00 PM
a block is like a bus though and transactions are the passengers
a blockchain is a bus manifest of passengers who bought tickets and their destinations listed, over multiple journeys

the protocol is a bus policy (rules of the road, routes and passenger agreement, schedule, etc)

breaking the bus schedule by having more buses per 10mins(a different bad proposal back then) is not a economic best plan. as it affects many things in the ecosystem. (rewards, blocks per difficulty, halving cycles, energy cost)

however buses with more capacity to let more passenger in is scaling bitcoin, without as many headaches as other proposals back then
..
when lukeJr proposed smaller blocks to make people not want to use bitcoin as much. everyone laughed .. yet 2017 masterplan of offramping bitcoiners to other networks is all certain people want..

..
when bitcoin scaling first started being discussed if someone said we want to scale bitcoin to allow more bitcoiners to use bitcoin
and if someone said way back then "sure lets scale bitcoin. ok heres a bike, you can get on it without waiting at a bus stop. and its timeshare price for journey time is far far less than a bus ticket"

would you call that scaling buses.. nope
..
if libertarians said they wanted free university education. and a corporation built a new city that had free schools 50 miles away. and said i call this city "univer" so now you have your univer-city free education
would you be happy
..
gmax went full on talk about a court system where he is the judge and he just wants to give the appearance that the witnesses and attendees and jury get a say in a judgement

the block/blockchain is just data.. a passenger manifest list of who bought tickets and went on a 10minute ride and reached their destination

a blockchain is not a court
if we were to use court terminology the blockchain is the transcript of proceedings.

however the protocol. would be the bus brand company deciding route and bus capacity and journey times and also setting fees

or in court terminology.. the protocol is the judge and clerks.
 the jury just relay their opinion on valid or reject. but ultimately the judge gets to agree or overrule and change the sentence or apply his own sentence without a jury

2009-2014 was a "jury of thy peers"
2015-2016 was a "judge and jury"
2017+ bench judge trials, with witnesses and reporters
..
his comparison to alleviate the courts by getting people to dispute out of court and only need to settle in court once in a blue moon. is not scaling bitcoin. its leaving bitcoin to go use some other dispute resolution system

"scaling" seems to be a word certain people cannot come to terms with.
removing, making burdensome to use to promote some other system is not "scaling"
4237  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - a bloodless revolution on: January 11, 2023, 11:17:36 PM
revolting(rebel) against a government is when you find a government revolting(rotten)

.. if trump was not enough to cause a massive power vacuum of people wanting to run off and self govern. i dont think there will be a revolution any time soon

politics continues. in any governed system. give just enough to appease the masses but not enough to please the masses, to remind the masses whos in power

if people got exactly what they wanted they wouldnt need anyone/thing else
4238  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When will Sam Bankman-Fried go to jail? on: January 11, 2023, 06:39:04 PM
in short.. to get a sentence of just a couple years. the theft/fraud/ has to be of value of less than $150k
What if he eventually pleads guilty before trial starts, you don't think that he can get better deal than those 17.5 years? I for sure hope that you are right, but I would be very surprised if he gets anything remotely close to that sentence.


in short.. to get a sentence of just a couple years. the theft/fraud/ has to be of value of less than $150k
In my country rich people regularly get lower sentences than they should according to the law on the count of some bullshit reason and I would be surprised if its not like that in the United States too.

unless he can "buy down" the debts to lessen the score.
(find the money in the accounts.... compensate some/all victims)

and
get awarded some minus points by pleading guilty before trial..

and
maybe only be convicted of one count..

chances of doing less than 17.5 years are small
4239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 11, 2023, 04:32:16 PM
YOU were the one advertising in this topic involving a theft of $3 million that lightning is the solution to wash the hacked coins clean!!! as you called it the "greatest"

but thank you for now admitting you happen to now remember that its not designed for that... thus not the "greatest"
nice try shifting the adversary, but you are your own worse adversary

i was the one telling YOU that LN was not designed for large amounts. heck i even told you the limitations using $ amount limits based on the stats of capacity/liquidity of routes
i think you need to see an optician
..
when you learn about LN's "gossip" and how channels funding is actually public. you may learn that with the lack of events per second.. finding the path and thus destination due to gossip becomes EASY

heres your dilemma
you think that you are safe because no one can peel the whole onion skin to core...
but you forget/dont know/ignore.. that they have ways to simply watch where the onion plays pass the parcel without needing to peel the onion.. especially on a low-use system where packet sniffing and gossip listening is EASY to monitor for "channel updates" due to lack of noise

im sure you probably do know it but dont want to say it out loud.. but if you dont then thats a failure on your part
i consider you do know it which is why you and ur chums are full on pedal to the metal, snake oil utopia, trying to recruit new people into your silly system to create more noise in the "gossip process". even if you are not morally telling your recruits of the many flaws you are inviting them into

trying to cause innocent people to be put on a AEC weido list just so you can exit an AEC with clean funds... leaving the innocent people with dirty coins. is not moral or letting your innocent recruits be informed of said weirdo lists, liquidity issues, how they end up with dirty coin.. and how they can be conned, scammed and easily stolen from due to many other flaws of your favoured service..

for someone that pretends is securing his stash. you sound less like a risk-aware guy, looking for flaws to help know the risks and inform others of risks/flaws... and more of a snake oil advertiser only selling the utopian best case dream

..
last point
if things were so binary fungible and untraceable.. why have you put soo much effort into needing to recruit. why are you so worried about "dirty" why even need a mixer if you think everything is fungible
answer: because you know deep down behind the hidden advert messages.. that things are not as you say they are
4240  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: January 11, 2023, 03:58:08 PM
a company with any debt is bad.. it shows they are not profitable/self sustainable

a company that (based on 10.5bill assets for demo) is only able to take a 2% cut ($210m) a year which it splits with its "mother" DCG
where DCG has debts of more then a billion.. means "mother" is in trouble (less yearly income compared to outgoings)

DCG EBITDA is less than $1b
after taxes and costs its alot lot less then that.

DCG should not be doing loans/debt deals of more yearly payment demand than its post-tax income
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