Just for the record, Im not entirely pulling numbers out of my arse. I cant tell you everything I know, but I can tell you what google will tell you if you search for SHA256 performance comparisons between 65nm FPGAs and 130nm ASICs, like this paper here:
http://eprint.iacr.org/2010/536.pdfOf course, no one said BFL will use 130nm, they might have picked 90nm or who knows, perhaps even 65nm, in which case you could be looking at closer to 5TH per wafer. But even if they went for 180nm or Im wrong by an order or magnitude, the basic premises remains the same: the variable cost per TH is several orders of magnitude lower than the current market price, and if BFL rides the price / difficulty curve from the current top to the eventual bottom, as a miner you will have a serious problem keeping up.
It is true. P4man and me are both scared that BFL will corner the mining market ...
I almost had a stroke when I read this thread yesterday.
Looking at BFL's past history it looks like they will deliver, unfortunately for all of us running GPUs and FPGAs now. ( not Singles )
Bowing down to the BFL mining overlords ... all this can be stopped by a community effort and mining can be decentralized again.
NDA ASIC = not good plan for us and Bitcoin in general.
What's stopping BFL having a ride with the blockchain and 51% ? NOTHING.
This needs to be fixed. Algo change is in order IMHO.
I wish BFL all success in the world but I don't like where this is going for BTC
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