OT: I finally read someone else's thoughts on the Fed and the stonk market that were so exacting to mine, that I could have written the same thing only with different words. He completely nailed it. Via deadhobo on zerohedge"I don't understand why this appears so complicated to others. The financial markets follow one basic rule:
Add Liquidity and Prices Rise, Remove Liquidity and Prices Fall.
That's it. That's the big secret.
The puzzlement is "What causes liquidity to rise and fall so that the prices of financial assets are affected?"
The answer is "algos, market makers, and others who control most of the daily transactions."
The big lie is "Prices are being carried forward, the stock market discounts everything instantly, or the market digests everything, or fill in the blank _________________________."
Algos run the market. Fed stimulus liquidity fed the algos into pumping prices higher and higher. NONE of the liquidity added so far is gone, in fact, more has been added. New liquidity won't stop for another month and interest rates will rise about 1% over the next 12 months at most. (In fact, the Fed added so much liquidity that massive amounts of Reverse Repos were needed on top of IOER to sop it up, meaning that even the algos couldn't use it all.)
So, what's causing the big fall? Algos, market makers, and others who do that job. Covid stimulus caused a big unsustainable bubble. Algos can not make much money at a perpetual top. Volatility is needed for them to fleece the participants. The end of stimulus with slowly rising rates provides a magnificent cover story for a big big fall, which is needed so algos can once again drive prices higher and make lots of money all over again.
Where is the bottom? My guess is the bottom of the channel on a log chart of the S&P that covers perhaps the last 10 years. This is where prices would be if Covid never happened. That's about 12% more. BTFD. Also, this drop will be fast, like all other algo driven drops. Over by mid-February. Algos don't like to be front run so fast means fast. Then, a gradual worry wall climb, just the same as every other recovery in recent memory.
A minor exception in the timing is the almost required massive face ripping short squeeze. Shorts always appear to fall for this. I don't get it.
FYI, this was predictable months ago. Timing is everything. The general level of financial prices must have a respectable recovery by year's end to keep selling stocks for the long run. It can be volatile, but not too volatile. It's salesmanship. Prices need to look 'all natural'.
(Cash is king always in these cases, but a reliable debt fund with a short duration can work if you feel bold. Share prices will fall, of course, but income will be steady monthly. Rates will rise over time causing income to also rise, and the share price will recover eventually, possibly to your entry point or beyond. With a good fund, you will end up ahead unless you sell at a bad time. Buy and hold actually works.)" So how does this translate to the Bitcoin market? The stonk market could drop maybe another 10-12% at most, before the algos reverse and start buying up everything again. All the selling will be over by March at the latest. The Fed might raise rates 25 bp or 50 bp at most, then you won't see another hike this year. 3 months of downity, followed by 9 months of straight uppity. After March the markets will climb a "wall of worry" for the rest of the year, to be in the black again by EOY. Because they HAVE to eek out a profit this year, all by design. And when I say eek out, I mean they have to be up +10-12% EOY from the Feb/Mar lows in order to make profit and beat inflation. Bitcoin will somewhat follow this pattern, whether we like it or not. But volatility will be much higher than the stonk market. |
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As if the possible risk of an ADR from a vaccine wasn't enough, apparently there are different risk severity levels based on different batch codes even for the same vaccine. It's like playing Russian roulette. You can search your vaccine batch code here: https://howbad.info/This pulls data from VAERS, so keep in mind that fewer than 1% of ADR events get reported. Also has some interesting stats on vaccine injury/death by demographic and state. Also interesting, Dr. Robert Malone's own story of vaccine injury. It was the second jab that almost did him in, not the first. (Funny how a lot of people just falsely assume that he doesn't believe in vaccines and never took one for CV19) https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/how-bad-is-my-batch |
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My bad however calling my ideas/my thoughts BS is not cool as well.  I think your TA is complete BS, but then again...I think all TA is complete BS. So meh. Also some of us old timers are quite amused when you TA guys follow the completely predictable pattern of predicting much higher highs during a bull run, and insta flipping to predicting much lower lows during a downturn. Such herd mentality.  |
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Exactly, I am just trying to believe and support my theory and my ideas.
If you call me an idiot/troll just because my Price Target is below the current price, that's stupid.
What If I said prices will go down at 60k? I don't think anyone would have called it BS.
I would be careful being too married or attached to your glorious TA predictions. You've been wrong with your insinuations before. I'm doubtful we will hit $92K by 2/1/22. Bitcoin is above 200 EMA for the first time since April, 2020. |
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It's like watching a Rube Goldberg machine being built in real time. |
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^I wish I could unsee that.
Me too, where's the eye bleach. Funny how the internet has been almost completely scrubbed of that photo literally anywhere you search. Like funny in a terrifying way. |
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Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.
I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?
A man on the internet (ie a random fuckwit) said "any old shit" so it must be true. As Jay said just sell all your coins now you don't need an excuse But it wont make you any less stressed out as your fiat will have devalued 30% over next 4 years while you will never afford to buy those bitcoin back. DYOR on MSTR the NASDAQ listed company. Men this place has become so toxic. It was just a question of what others think. But the bashing was predictable. Jay is on my ignore list for a long time already so I ignore his toxic bs... Only a handful members are worth reading their posts nowadays... Dude, go back and look at your history. Your posts were all bullish AF as recently as November... ? |
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I hope Nayib in turn urges the IMF to go suck of a bag of dicks. |
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and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome!
After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero. i dunno man my moon is pretty up there. i like BIG numbers not mediocre (even for for ants) numbers. so $35k USD is closer to zero than my moon. Then you're gonna be waiting quite a while. I guarantee it'll take a lot longer for the price to go from $35K to moon, than it did from zero to $35K. That's why everyone that thought we'd be at $100K+ by now got burned bigly. so 2009 0 and 2021 35k call moon? 100k 250k 350k 500k 1m 12 years from now 100k seems pretty easy 250k also looks easy enough 350k I'm no longer interested in what we hit as ATH prices, as these are completely blow off and are not stable or sustainable due to over-leverage. So when I say 'moon', I'm interested in what price we stabilize at. It could take us another 8 years to stabilize at $250k. And to go from a stable $250K to a stable $1M? Who knows, it could take another 20 years after that. But probably more like 8-10. The price is not a linear thing. The curve is flattening, and will continue to flatten from here. Although I guess if hyperinflation were to hit globally, acceleration would then occur. (I'm growing doubtful that the USD in it's current form will even make it another 10-15 years, let alone another 30) Personally, I think it's better have more reasonable, conservative expectations over the long term than hanging one's hat on an unsustainable moon shot. |
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This doctor's testimony to Congress is both heartbreaking and tragic. https://twitter.com/MdBreathe/status/1485718426278633472/video/1Also, in Long Covid patients, parts of virus DNA are still detectable in the stool and various tissues, long time after having tested negative.
The immune system is confronted with a heavy load and in turn, T-cells are practically burning out. So it's not a big surprise that an mRNA vaccine shot after long covid reactivates the immune response via mRNA mechanism, instead of presenting antigens like it would be the case with a natural infection, which in turn clears out the remains of the virus.
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I believe that is what this Yale epidemiologist may be referring to: https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1485700596262965250Studies on pre-treatment protocols found here, can be clicked on and drilled down into: https://c19early.com/ |
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and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome!
After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero. i dunno man my moon is pretty up there. i like BIG numbers not mediocre (even for for ants) numbers. so $35k USD is closer to zero than my moon. Then you're gonna be waiting quite a while. I guarantee it'll take a lot longer for the price to go from $35K to moon, than it did from zero to $35K. That's why everyone that thought we'd be at $100K+ by now got burned bigly. |
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So Biden's answers to inflation is SOB. Lol  |
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I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850
[...]
In the end, BTC will either go to zero or it will be a great success. [...] 10 years ago i found bitcoin, and vowed i would ride this pig either into the ground or right to the moon. its allowed me to retire early already. its a pretty good ride. and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome! After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero. And pretty clear in which direction it is heading. Also, Wall Street wouldn't bother with ETFs if it had a chance to go to zero. |
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Jeebus... twitter on a freaking blockchain. The most ridiculous part is there are more guys like him that want to do the exact same thing on some other blockchain. The BSV folks actually never seemed to understand that they were NEVER taking on BITCOIN, but instead were competing against ETH, really...
For those of us with decades of IT programming background and experience, apps running on a blockchain is just the DUMBEST idea ever thought of. Meanwhile...  |
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I have zero sympathy for anyone that went all-in to BCash, BSV, or any other shitcoin for that matter and end up losing everything.
They were warned, they were all warned. And most of them turned into smarmy, know-it-all types with superiority complexes. They laugh at "toxic bitcoin maximalists" and are so convinced they are on the right side of history.
They aren't. Delusion is a hell of a drug.
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An immune system needs to take a breath between infections (immunizations), too, i guess?
Would make sense, not backed by scientific data, though.
The whole idea of keeping antibodies at an elevated state in one's body, all the time, is completely insane and contrary to good health. Having ongoing elevated antibodies is called chronic inflammation, and it's bad for the body's systems. Like really bad. It can lead to a whole host of health problems and auto immune diseases. Infection is supposed to be a very acute, short term thing your body has to deal with. A healthy, functioning immune system learns how to make antibodies to attack a perceived threat, generates them until the threat is gone, and then stores that learning of antibody production into long term T-cell memory. That's the whole point. Antibodies are supposed to go away once that threat is gone. And yes, this IS backed by Biology 101 and evolutionary science. So if the point of the vaccines was to help your body's immune system learn how to make antibodies and store that into memory, then why the need for endless, ongoing jabs and boosters to "keep your antibodies elevated"? You're basically walking around in a chronically inflamed state, all the time. Insanity for the ignorant. |
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I see several supposedly bull accounts now spouting low key bearish, "I think we definitely going much lower so sell noaw" crap.
Sus af. Bear troll accounts in disguise. We see you.
Fuk off.
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