Old news. Few months ago. With difficulty and current btc price.
Now he only makes about 1 million a month.
Still, its a lot... If you calculated the amount of money to buy those bitfury chips and boards needed to push 1PH it is not a good return on investment capital. |
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The problem is the chips wont be getting much faster. 20nm chips is about as far as they will go for quite some time. My prediction is you won't see 10TH rigs till next year
What if we get to 1nm? Then all we can do is build ridiculously large rigs with loads of chips in them, so it has more hashrate. we won't get to even 18 in the near future besides the fact it will be too expensive. On top of that difficulty would be over 1 trillion. |
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When will Bitcoin difficulty get to a point where it will no longer be profitable for the average person?
Never. As soon as there is electric price differentiation everywhere in the world. Also, worst competitor of massive farms, is the hobbyists and people uneducated about ROI issues. I'm waiting for the farms to disappear near. |
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Miners realize that mining will be 100% centralized by the end of 2015 which in turn will have a huge impact on the bit coin economy.
Can I have that crystal ball you have, because mine isn't working.  Seriously, I need to plan a year ahead accordingly. Mine is working perfectly fine and he is right. bit coin mining will be completely centralized by 2015 along with bit-coins, and bitCoin.. But bitcoin mining will be fine/decentralized. Mining will be crashing starting in June. By end of year there won't be many survivors except for the manufacturers mines. I think this would only be true if electricity wasn't such a limiting factor. Soon KNC will need a nuclear power plant to power their farm. I know, and the farm is paid off with the customers pre order money mostly. |
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When will Bitcoin difficulty get to a point where it will no longer be profitable for the average person?
Now |
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The problem is the chips wont be getting much faster. 20nm chips is about as far as they will go for quite some time. My prediction is you won't see 10TH rigs till next year
And not only that but what is the cost for this miner? 10 th at 15-20k retail? Even the manufacture cost 6-7k @ 200 billion difficulty doesn't make much back. |
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50th miner will not be cost effective because difficulty will be too high by then.
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Miners realize that mining will be 100% centralized by the end of 2015 which in turn will have a huge impact on the bit coin economy.
Can I have that crystal ball you have, because mine isn't working. Seriously, I need to plan a year ahead accordingly. Mine is working perfectly fine and he is right. bit coin mining will be completely centralized by 2015 along with bit-coins, and bitCoin.. But bitcoin mining will be fine/decentralized. Mining will be crashing starting in June. By end of year there won't be many survivors except for the manufacturers mines. |
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What will happen is the large centralized for-profit mining operations will close down, sell of their ASICs and mining will become decentralized again (which I predicted a year ago).
Once mining becomes break-even with electricity costs on the most efficient ASIC designs in low electricity cost regions, mining will only be viable in "home" type setups where other costs such as space, cooling and support are free. "Datacenter" style operations will become money losing operations because by design their cost structure includes more than electricity and have to cover space, cooling and IT support.
What we are going to see are the large datacenter mining operations slowly sell of their H/W at lower and lower prices and close up shop.
There are only three variables that will matter for mining:
1) $/BTC price
2) Watt per GH/s
3) $ per Kwh
For a given BTC price, an optimal GH/s per Watt ASIC design, and cost of electricity, there is a difficulty where mining becomes break even. I ran this calculation and posted a year ago assuming $200 BTC, 0.7W per Gh/s and $0.10 Kwh and if I remember correctly the break even global hashrate was around 50,000 TH/s. The inputs need to be updated to get the new break even hashrate but we are getting close.
To see what will happen just look at the GPU era. Mining difficulty overshot and then leveled off and slowly came down as some miners shutdown their operations till the effort was breakeven. Then FPGAs came online which had a higher capital cost with ~1 year breakeven timeframe but miners bought these because of the focus on electricity efficiency. I am guessing we will see the same with the highest efficiency ASIC designs selling at ~1-2 year breakeven rates.
I might have this wrong, but 0.7W per GH/s equates to 16.8 Wh per GH/day. At 10c per kWh that's $0.00168 per day in electricity per GH/s. At 50 PH/s thats only $84k per day in electricity charges - well below the current mining reward. Assuming only 144 blocks per day and 25 BTC per block that's 3600 blocks. Assume $400 per BTC and that's $1.44M per day in mining rewards. The break-even for just electricity would be 17x higher at around 850 PH/s. The capital cost for the mining rigs is the majority of where the mining reward is currently having to go - it's much higher than the operating cost. Operating cost only really gets interesting to decide when to switch the hardware off. If the difficulty levels out more then the balance will move much more towards the operating cost. Thanks for double checking, your calculation is right. I was going off of memory and switched the break even hash rate with break even difficulty in my head. Just checked and my assumptions last year were $200 per BTC, $0.10 per KwH and 0.8W per GH/s. This worked out to a break even hash rate of 375 PH/s at a difficulty of 52 billion. (I remembered this as 50 PH/s). If you take your assumptions and double the price to $400/BTC and use 0.7W efficiency I got a break even hash rate of 857 PH/s, so yes that's right. What's interesting about this calculation is you can see how the difficulty should rise or fall once the ASIC market settles down. 1) Global hash rate should go up and down with BTC price. For example if you double the price of BTC the hash rate should double. 2) Global hash rate should go up and down opposite of the price of electricity. For example if the cost of electricity doubles, global hash rate should drop by half. 3) Global hash rate should go up and down with ASIC efficiency. For example if ASIC designs improve by 10%, global hash rate should go up by 10%. Regardless of the exact number and break even date though, the basic point still holds. Once the hash rate rise to where the most efficient ASICs are break even with electricity, "datacenter" style operations are not profitable and lose cash flow every single month. At that point the only thing for them to do is sell off their hardware and exit. Who knows how it will happen, they might get decent market prices from home users or it might be a fire sale, but my guess is mining will become more decentralized than today. Even 875 PH/s is not that far away, probably 6 to 12 months. Here is the log chart: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png. Each of those bars on the vertical axis represents a 100x increase in hash rate. We are at 50 today which is only 14x from break even using your numbers.... There is one variable missing from your equation that is very important. The cost of the mining equipment. With this variable added it seems we are already at the point of the no sum game, at least for the retail and commercial miners. Manufacturers might have another 30-45 days because they can mine at the manufactured cost of the machines. Even for them it will start being unprofitable past 15 billion difficulty. |
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Old news. Few months ago. With difficulty and current btc price.
Now he only makes about 1 million a month.
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I would start an investment journal like here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406112.0Guy has 10,000 USD worth of HBN, with 2% returns every 10 days That's $600 every 10days for you... thats at current market prices for HBN (hobonickels). Hobonickels has a strong community behind it, and many believe it will still go up. Besides HBN this would be my personal journal with 30K - 8500USD >LTC
- 4000 USD > VERT
- 3000 USD > Peercoin
- 2500USD >BTC
- 1500USD > FTC
- 1500 USD > DOGE
- 1500 USD > Darkcoin
- 1500 USD> Maxcoin
- 1500 USD> Fluttercoin
- 1500 USD > Devcoin
- 1500 USD > Goldcoin
DISCLAIMER: AM NOT A BAGHOLDER For $10000 2% every 10 days is $200 not $600. |
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At least bitcoins wont depreciate 15% every 10 days like asic hardware.
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I just really hope all the delusional people on here that are KNC fanboys remember this and cancel their Titan order(s).
Except you can't cancel a Titan O god, forgot about that one. Imagine the shit those customer's will be going through. They'll receive a riveted sealed box with broken parts and faulty fans and no way to access them. and be pressured into cloud mining with no equity |
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Jalepeno and asm cube 10 watt per gh is bad!
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You couldnt even give me a free bfl jalepeno 10gh because it uses more electricity than the btc it mines.
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People will loose interest in BTC, there will be other way to make money.
Only huge mining farm will be profitable.
Diff will go down because lost of interest, btc price will go down because lost of interest and than maybe obsolete miners will become usefull again.
well my s-1's will be useful in october - march as supplemental space heating. another reason to have them. Since the industry needs mining to really work. I actually feel the super-farms may be worse off then the little guy. I know of hundreds of eletrical heated homes less then 10 miles from my house. Everyone one of them can use an s-1 or more when the heating season comes round. More then 5 million USA homes use electric heat they all can use s-1's next fall. Since the s-1 is the exact same power cost as the electric heat they use per watt. why not space heat with it and get some money back. No big farm can compete with that. I agree bigger farms have more overhead like rent and maintenance. |
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People will loose interest in BTC, there will be other way to make money.
Only huge mining farm will be profitable.
Diff will go down because lost of interest, btc price will go down because lost of interest and than maybe obsolete miners will become usefull again.
Huge mining farms will be destroyed by the end of the year too. Manufacturers will be mining less and most new equipment will be made in pre order batches. People learned the lesson and preoders are died long time ago. Trust me, no one who have a bit brain will go for overpriced, non existent gear which maybe will be delivered at date given by factory and will give money towards this whole scam call preorders. Because of the rising difficulty less manufacturers will mine. Without them building machines to mine first there is no product. They will not risk capital investment to build machines that dont roi. But it's still possible to sell to newbie consumers. |
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People will loose interest in BTC, there will be other way to make money.
Only huge mining farm will be profitable.
Diff will go down because lost of interest, btc price will go down because lost of interest and than maybe obsolete miners will become usefull again.
Huge mining farms will be destroyed by the end of the year too. Manufacturers will be mining less and most new equipment will be made in pre order batches. |
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you don't need the extra fans . so 5 x .619 = 3.095 btc and about 200 for the psu this is about 1600 for 700gh at low power.
That is not bad at all. Equivalent to $2286 for a 1TH miner, except that you get the ability to overclock and stock clock for as long as that makes sense, then switch to low power for longevity. I like this a lot. A good idea, and a better solution than an S2 for sure, the only downside being that it'll never make back the 3.5BTC it costs, but at least you'll lose less than the 7BTC an S2 costs  Me thinks they are doing fire sales on the s1 to blow out the 20000-30000 machines from their farms. Because of 1. Updating some to s2. 2. Rising difficulty. |
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Well most manufacturers made money during the boom.
Just business will slow down to the point if they cant make a profit they wont make and sell it.
And bitmain is selling off everything in s-1 = more money. The are not dumb they will sit back build nothing for a while and see if btc does a fiat jump. I know that any new company that has not made serious coin will be in trouble with a launch since no one is selling an asic that runs 1th at 200-300 watts. Man would they make money selling that if they had it. A 1th miner at 300 watts in stock at 2.5k would sell like a mofo. While they cant make a 1th miner to run at 200-300 watts yet. Im sure they can make a 1th miner at 1000 watts for under 800 usd. |
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