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HAH that makes sense. Agreed
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my first bid on btc-e is @135$  edit: and then all the way to 99$  What a fantasy!!!! You better put some BTC sell orders in the $3,000 price range, too, just in case it goes quickly the other way.  Have you ever traded on BTCE? In February, I caught coins from $140 - $270 (my lowest bids were at $140). In the last cascade, I caught coins from $320 - $360. It's not fantasy at all. BTCE is very thinly traded and extremely easy to manipulate. They will (or someone will) run stops and we could easily cascade down there, given a little push. Yes. This is true |
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now i thinking about suicide! (no joke)  You should NOT put yourself in such a financial situation... so try to learn from this in order to help yourself to better deal with these kinds of situations in the future.  People had already said, in this thread, that investors should NOT put themselves in such situations. You can always sell, lose less. Still something left over. Just go back to work tomorrow and start over. |
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Maybe because btc is only a conceptual means as a storage of a value that hasn't been fully determined yet. |
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Someone on kncminer forum is requesting that we have the source code for Titan firmware. If that goes as planned, then we as a community can work on a scrypt-n feature and may be able to see ROI. Last to scrypt, but first to scrypt-n !
Is KNC donating to charity? |
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I think by January 2015 difficulty will be 150 billion. SP30's will be selling for $100. BTC will be sub $100 and there will be thousands of Chinese killing themselves to squeeze every last penny from their dying BTC farms.
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Now, cointera announcement 16nm ASIC preorder, any one willing to get 1!? Ship 2015 Q1.
With difficulty 100 Billion in January by then even 4.5Th at .3 watts/gh wont mine much. Minimum 95% loss of purchase price. |
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have we hit despair yet? no?! down down down your boat down below the sea. whales are here and whales are there squeezing little sheeps. I do sense more and more despair. If the price does not rebound soon, expect even more despair. There should be a bottom somewhere, we can't keep falling forever We need a big nice drop in order to build up a big momentum for the next rally. The lower we go, the higher we will go too! Come on peps, cry, whine, and sell sell sell! Bitcoin is done! Man this is all we have been hearing for the last year and it keeps dropping and there is no sign of this "big rebound". They say the Big Boys are still shaking out the weak hands. LOL not |
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It appears the heavy hitters are pulling out of BTC and going into Alts such as PPC and NMC and others as of late...
The more simple answer is there are more sellers (mostly miners) than buyers (retail or institutional). 3600 bitcoins are mined everyday |
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Sell! Sell! Sell!
(Sell me your coins!!!!!)
Maybe difficulty will be 1 TRILLION by next Sept. |
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Wonder when miners start getting shut off, its going to get interesting....
New product development should slow down too, with these 2 things difficulty should slow down slightly, but there are still people who have access to cheap or free electricity. |
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I based my figures off of Jupiters batches 1 and 2, where KNC's internal insurance invoiced their value at $1000USD when being shipped back to them, or within their company controls.
[...]
Consider how many tens of millions they took home in profit on their tax statement. Their profit margins weren't 30%, they were generously higher.
Yep, the 1000$ marginal cost sounds about right. Not sure how much the ASIC NRE's are, though. If they got 25m$ for the Titan Batch1 they may have spent 10-20m$ on R&D? Batch2 was pure profit, though. I don't think KNC is in a cash flow position to do anything special for their customers.
They seem to be struggling. The latest series A won't last them long.
Expect to get the absolute minimum possible from KNC these days, at the very last moment.
Well, that doesn't add up when considering the calculation above. Unless... Did you ever wonder why it says "KnC Sweden 20nm AB"? I'd guess because there are "KnC 28nm AB", "KnC Cloud", "KnC Private Mining", "KnC Holding" etc. The founders kept the 10's of m$ in their holding (or private accounts!) and make sure that any failure in the future doesn't cost them a penny. The KnC 20nm is probably struggling to meet payments because of the Neptune debacle (first tape out botched etc) and was close to go bankrupt. As the latter is really not pretty both from bad publicity as well as the "annoying" legal investigations KnC tried to avoid the bankruptcy with dubious measures. Such as offering 5%-10% more refund money if the refund is delayed. And start taking Titan pre-orders - which has saved them. Disclaimer: I don't know any details and all of the above is pure speculation. Smart move on KNC part with Titan no refund. Bitmain coming December too, with Scryot machines 1/3 the price. $5/MH |
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1 BTC = 1$ seems a fair price for me. I think more people would use it if we could manage to get a stable rate around +- 1% of it.  It used to be $.0025 when Laszlo Hanyecz, bought the 2 pizzas. Which is about 1.2% of this tip  |
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As to building miners for dirt cheap, if KNC's profit margin is similar to the Jupiter series, they're making about 86-89% pure profit on the gear. So it could be done.. but.. the whole thing of they won't do it because they know they can just keep the money to themselves.
I dont think their profit margin is that high with the gear, their secret is to build the machines and then mine with them a couple months before giving to public. Unable to pre sell to the public at inflated prices anymore, I doubt they can make mining gear at that profit margin again unless they can con more people as they are going private now, which is what the new strategy is I believe with the A series funding round. What do you think is their profit margin? I would expect at least 30% of ~25m$ pre-order sold (Batch 1). The NRE of a 28nm ASIC and production cost should run much about 10m$? Batch 2 was then pure profit for them, as R&D has been paid for. I'd expect the marginal cost to be comparable or lower than the Bitmain L1, so a Titan costs 1800$ to produce after R&D. That said, this is pure speculation, I simply don't know. The pre-order scams etc. will also damage Bitcoin and the hoped for spike in prices may not happen. At that point it's going to be difficult to make new hardware and profit from that as before, because the marginal increase in performance/watt does not justify the explosion in R&D costs. So from now on it'll be about "cheap", not about "quick to market" (IF they sell any) Scrypt: Bitmain at $5 MH in December. KNC batch 2 $15 MH. Bitmain cost maybe $3-3.50 but importantly BOTH Companies use the money now from pre-ordrs to do something for 3 months. The Titans are the Scrypt offshoot. I haven't done calculations on those but the Asics Neptunes will mine back 2 btc lifetime (currently) for them mining them earlier beforehand and release to the public profits more because they have cheap electricity, if that was the case then means $950 manufacture or less to break even (or maybe make at a loss) , better yet take 10k 12k, 6k, from customers by preselling them and use for a few months then re-sell them back at (retail price) before or at order deadline. |
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They have to sell alot of the coins as they are mined to recoup the capital investment for the asic machines, that are depreciating 40-50% every month in value.
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All of a sudden the bears appear
Bitfinex about $470 ~1500 BTC wall
about $475 ~650 wall
OKCOIN about 2855 ~500 BTC wall
Bitstamp all the way up to $465 about $2800 BTC wall
Most likely those wall won't get filled
And the pattern keeps repeating... Where do the coins come from??? The coins come from miners that sell millions everyday if they dont want to hold them longterm with uncertain price swings. |
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Since August, experienced traders have been in easy accumulation mode as they break weak holds. Best believe they'll want to profit too.
Traders buy low and sell high, or sell high and buy low. They dont just accumulate. Are you saying taders have been buying since $600 in August and its still sliding to about $460 now. That means they are fucked and losing their asses off. Experienced traders would see the ema dropping under $620 in early August and got out or went short ! Now would be interesting time to accumulate as there is alot of support $400-450 |
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I was thinking the same thing. Just wanted some confirmation it's still coming because I'm trying to figure out to sell them now and buy s4's or wait for the upgrade
Exactly! S1 have upgrades-but are they worth it? Selling S2 was probably best done before the announcement. S2s are heavy. 1 TH/s also isn't very much anymore. Would be hard to sell for anything significant IMHO. M S2 mines .25 btc now Over what time period? Lifetime. Actually about .3 btc at 15% difficulty rise every adjustment period and .16 cents electricity kw/hr Yes they are a huge loss as they came out at the wrong time just before the s3, I feel sorry for people asking for $1000 on ebay |
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