Hi all, I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake. I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).  I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum). If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300! One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future. ... but it sure is interesting... TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound. We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon. As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase. in fact we are bending already. look at the peak at about 350 days... the gradient before was higher, than it is now. |
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looking forward to more information.
why don't you just dig in their website? |
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Proof of Person - Equal Stake is a proposed solution for the problem of Greed and Envy during the startup of second generation crypto currencies:
Even though technically some of the second generation cryptocurrencies have turned out to be exciting technical successes, many of the recent projects that featured pre-mined ‘Proof of Stake’ concept currencies - NXT, Qora, and now also NEM - have been plagued by the perception that the process of starting up the currency is not fair, but hampered by greed and envy.
I do acknowledge that greed and envy may have a useful role to play in society, but I have the suspicion that in the case of establishing buy-in and confidence into a currency, it would be more likely to succeed if the currency is perceived as fair, and of a steady value.
Initial axioms:
1. Distribution has to be fair, not only at a certain point in time, but for all future generations.
2. Every living, adult human should have equal access to the currency.
Proposed mechanism of distribution:
3. Every living, adult human should receive one free stake of currency, once in their life, with the opening of their account.
4. The opening of a new account is the occasion when new coins are forged or ‘mined’. That process might be drawn over a period of time, for instance over one year, in order to average the received value and also to introduce the newling to the concept of currency.
5. Opening of a new account is supervised by multiple existing mature accounts, called bankers, by vouching for the Proof of Person:
6. Biometric identification of sorts as well as two forms of traditional identification are hashed into or included with the account number.
The benefit of such a system might be that the value of the currency would not fluctuate that much over time, because essentially you are having IPO’s year round, and the ratio of coins to individual is maintained.
This concept of distribution can be applied to any other 100% Proof of Stake design.
Clearly the rewards for maintaining nodes, the network and incentives for development can co-exist along the Proof of Person - Equal Stake concept.
Pentamon
I am thinking about that since months now, but didn't post, because there will be people using half ready concepts and destroy the possiblity at the beginning. Because the first time you can maybe reach people. If it was somehow wrong the second time you bother them already. And the 3rd time is only spam. I think its too early for it. I have also a few concepts for it, thinking a little further with privacy, but they are all not really useable yet. |
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Hi all, I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake. I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line). I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum). If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300! One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future. ... but it sure is interesting... TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound. |
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I'll be happy to answer any questions anyone else has relating to NEM. I think Jaguar or Gimre will come and start a new official thread and we will regroup in a day or two.
I've got two questions.. 1. Who or how was Utopian's mistakes found out? 2. What if he dumps all his stakes in the AE? Not trying to be negative, but just trying to get some answers from the team. Hopefully all the hard work by the team the past few months don't go in vain. Good luck guys. kidding me? he has only 2 or maximum 3 stakes. that wont change anything. |
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Everything else doesn't make sense.
Everyone who is requesting a refund is double stupid.
First he doesn't understand peer to peer and that one person doesn't destroy anything like peer to peer, because everything is backuped multiple times. Second is, that one nem stake is already worth multiple times the amount, he was spending.
You guys are great. Carry on and bring us a new step further to a brighter future.
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Ok this is number 3 or did i miss some? How many threads are you gonna open if one of the nxt guys is blamed for a bug in the system? |
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ok we had that already. if you sell 30k now, price will drop 50$ and rebound in a few minutes. Ridiculous. |
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YOU are really kidding... I didn't see ANY proof. Everyone can open a account and post suspicious things...
sorry dude, but u better hear it from the former leader himself then I failed in my personal conduct and not adhere to the rules I set myself. If you are familiar with American politics, now I have the Eliot Spitzer or Anthony Weiner problem.
I had a few sockpuppet accounts but I have no intention of cashing out any of them. I did not write down the sock accounts (using an arbitrary password that I can't remember) neither and plan to donate the fees for the development fund. I created sock accounts to keep the thread at a high demand when we have few supporters. Ghosthouse is the only account I kept using more so that I can use it sometimes to cheer up NEM threads.
It is what it is. I apologize to my core team members, to all NEM supporting developers and helpers for this issue. I will step down from now on.
The task of maintaining NEM stakeholder list will be transfered to Patmast3r. He has been sharing the access to the file with me for quite sometimes. NEMtoken account will be passed to Pastmast3r as well.
NEM Twitter account will be transfered to Makoto and he could pass on to the most suitable person.
NEM development fund accounts will be fully transfered to Jaguar0625, Gimre and Thies1965.
Ournem website will be transfered to the core team as well.
Update and Discussion and Refunds threads will be closed after new threads with similar functions can be made up.
All press contacts will be passed to the core team so that they can find an appropriate person for the job.
I resign from all leading function within NEM and this will be the last post of UtopianFuture.
Now the next question. Is utopianfuture actually patmaster as well? Who knows? I'm out of this hoax project! Selling my stakes now on Nxt AE voting can thus now actually be closed ... ok, but still: so what? You are hurting NEM more with this thread then him. Thank you. NEM is dead. face it this project based on a lie and hoax of "fairness and quality" worked because of community support. at least half of community will not trust project anymore after this just sit back and see. PS i dont give a shit im out of this disgusting project you just want a cheap stack. If you want to sell yours. I buy it for 0.1BTC. Its worthless anyway ;-) |
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So this is why the price drowned so hard while I was busy with World Cup? That caused a trade of mine gone to big profit to small loss  For me they learned with the chinese how manipulate the market to get some money, and we will see many news about this that will drive the price lower and lower. Perfect time to sell all your things and all family member, get as many loans as you can, and have a huge profit in some months. be happy, you can buy cheap. It will be on 650 again probably in this week already. |
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current buys on bitstamp:
560 66
555 321
550 1239
545 1801
540 2611
535 2852
530 3103
525 3539
520 3974
515 4127
510 4334
505 4557
500 4970
495 5265
490 5418
and there you come with your 30000.
It will cause a drop from 560 to about 500 if they would be sold in one time. Ridiculous.
2 Minutes later, the price would be at least at 540 again.
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YOU are really kidding... I didn't see ANY proof. Everyone can open a account and post suspicious things...
sorry dude, but u better hear it from the former leader himself then I failed in my personal conduct and not adhere to the rules I set myself. If you are familiar with American politics, now I have the Eliot Spitzer or Anthony Weiner problem.
I had a few sockpuppet accounts but I have no intention of cashing out any of them. I did not write down the sock accounts (using an arbitrary password that I can't remember) neither and plan to donate the fees for the development fund. I created sock accounts to keep the thread at a high demand when we have few supporters. Ghosthouse is the only account I kept using more so that I can use it sometimes to cheer up NEM threads.
It is what it is. I apologize to my core team members, to all NEM supporting developers and helpers for this issue. I will step down from now on.
The task of maintaining NEM stakeholder list will be transfered to Patmast3r. He has been sharing the access to the file with me for quite sometimes. NEMtoken account will be passed to Pastmast3r as well.
NEM Twitter account will be transfered to Makoto and he could pass on to the most suitable person.
NEM development fund accounts will be fully transfered to Jaguar0625, Gimre and Thies1965.
Ournem website will be transfered to the core team as well.
Update and Discussion and Refunds threads will be closed after new threads with similar functions can be made up.
All press contacts will be passed to the core team so that they can find an appropriate person for the job.
I resign from all leading function within NEM and this will be the last post of UtopianFuture.
Now the next question. Is utopianfuture actually patmaster as well? Who knows? I'm out of this hoax project! Selling my stakes now on Nxt AE voting can thus now actually be closed ... ok, but still: so what? You are hurting NEM more with this thread then him. Thank you. |
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$574 on Bitstamp... And gets lower and lower
You will see maybe 530 and in 48 hours 650 again. |
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after utopianfuture has now been convicted of secretly claiming sockpuppet stakes of a supposedly "fairly distributed" NEM Project in his position of "grand leader" - the community question has been raised if or if not he should be excluded/removed from the project as a valid consequence. Read more info here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=649852.0VOTE TODAY1 Maximum vote per User. Poll will run for 14 days. YOU are really kidding... I didn't see ANY proof. Everyone can open a account and post suspicious things... |
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It's clear for me that there won't be any rebound to 620s or more, for at least few weeks if not even months. 2-months, daily candles graph:  So, 400s here we come. SELL SELL SELL! simple bear trap. Many people will thank you  |
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I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued
Why do think that is? I've noticed a lot of resistance and very little acknowledgment of new technologies in general. People don't seem to care much, do they? yes they do, but they mostly realize it to late, because they don't fully understand it first. Then they are a little untrusting. New things are sometimes breaking very fast. But then more and more people find their trust and thats why it takes time. The problem is - like bitcoin - that the value is so high, that you can come there only with hypes and those are always followed by crash periods. You can see that very good in Darkcoin. |
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the buy wall has been weaker and weaker these days, to break $600 and reach $5xx only cost 3k dumps now instead of 5.5k at few days ago!
$6xx bitcoin is too exp and no one is buying them, that's why volume keeps low and price keeps dropping, expedia and yahoo won't save this fact
let's sell now!
i expect to drop until about 530 and then rebound to 650 again. this is a bear trap that was there repeatedly before all hypes... |
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The Cryptocoin Value Cycle (CVC)
I was following the prices of the last years and found a cycle. The cycle lasts 7 to 9 months and starts then again from the beginning. If you stay in the right coins at the right time you can get a lot of money out of it. Of course this is only your decision and I may also be wrong. So don't blame me, if you loose ;-)
I just want you to participate on my findings.
To make sure, we are talking about the same.
You have 4 types of cryptocoins (of course this is only a approximation, some may be between):
- BTC
- IAs: new innovative Altcoins like NXT, DRK
- OAs: ordinary altcoins. founded older Altcoins like LTC, Dodge.
- DAs: dying Altcoins
I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued and can have their own cycle on top of all where DAs are dropping no matter what. So I am talking only of OAs in general here. Its always good to be in IAs, it will grow for sure. They are maybe not so dependend on BTC price as a OA is. But they may also grow less or even drop in a phase, where OAs in general crash as a DA can even raise in a hype phase.
It may also be possible in the future, that IAs are taking over BTC and the Phases are getting based on them.
Here are the Phases:
1. Pre-Hype Phase
Bitcoin is raising a little, OAs can get a little downtrend in btc but mostly keep their market cap.
There can be a BTC bear trap in this time. This is a perfect invitation to buy a little more BTC.
Occurance: Feb 2013, Oct 2013, June/July 2014
2. Hype Phase
Bitcoin is skyrocketing. OAs are running along and keep the BTC exchange price, but by the end of the phase they skyrocket even more.
Bitcoin can get up to 10-fold in $, but of course there are sometimes cycles, where BTC "only" raises 3-fold. OAs can get up to 10-fold in BTC at the end. So you can make up to 100 fold in a good hype if you hold OAs!
Occurance: Mar/Apr 2013, November 2013, probably July/Aug 2014
3. Crash Phase
Bitcoin is dropping about 2/3. OAs are dropping even more. So its better to be not too much in Altcoins in this period. After the crash the OAs have about the same BTC trade rate as before the hype.
Occurance: Apr - Jun 2013, Dez 2013 - Mar 2014
4. Normalization Phase
BTC prices are rebounding and get maybe stable over a certain amount of time. OAs are also relativly stable.
Occurances: Aug/Sep 2013, May 2014
I hope you like it. If so, feel free to tip on the BTC address in my profile.
Lordoliver
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I think things that happen happen. We want to make our money a real good.
Not traceable (darkcoin) and reversable transactions.
We have to accept, that this has consequences. If I trust anyone with it, i risk, that its gone.
If i buy an ounce gold and store it at a trading location, and the owner can run away, because i don't know him personally, its gone.
I should have stored it in my flat instead.
Can you imagine the press, if bitcoin did similar things after the mt.gox desaster?
Many people would loose their trust in it, because they can change the system randomly.
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thank you all for vote to my submission I vote for SomeRelax, without doubt the best logo
kidding me? @ Lordolover, that is not my account edit: that account is not in the distribution list even yes, I thought so... but someone maybe wants to let us think that... |
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