Analysis

[windjc]

This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

[1714002600]

1714002600

[shmadz]

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

At the moment online wallets have some bad press but they are the future of Bitcoin for most people. They will also be regulated of course and be required to insure deposits.

FDIC or the like would make it a different story, but it all costs (and good luck getting the Fed to insure BTC deposits). Private insurance will likely be uneconomical for such a use unless those funds are available to lend or invest to produce revenue for the wallet site.
If some form of insurance can be had, then great!

I'm don't think they could ever insure your bitcoin properly. At best, they might offer to refund "equivalent value" in USD (or whatever the gov't fiat is in your country)

[MAbtc]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

Perhaps what wouldn't fit is a reemergence of a bull market. Surpassing the top of the previous bull trap. Reaching new ATHs. Saying it's a bull trap on the way up isn't wrong until it... is.  I recall responding to a similar post ~ $1k (Gox) on the last bull trap.

I wouldn't be too sure of any position right now. I do know that being bearish at $1k made me a shitload of money. Being bearish at $830 cost me ~ $10/coin + fees. But I consider it worth it for the expected value at the time. Small losses are okay for an opportunity at big gains.

While I think there is upside left, I am unconvinced that this is a sustainable rally (read: emergence of bull market). Do you recall sentiment when Gox passed $1k ~12/9? I do.

[samurai1200]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

A downtrend?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

[arepo]

This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

[windjc]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.

[windjc]

This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

[shmadz]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

Perhaps what wouldn't fit is a reemergence of a bull market. Surpassing the top of the previous bull trap. Reaching new ATHs. Saying it's a bull trap on the way up isn't wrong until it... is.  I recall responding to a similar post ~ $1k (Gox) on the last bull trap.

I wouldn't be too sure of any position right now. I do know that being bearish at $1k made me a shitload of money. Being bearish at $830 cost me ~ $10/coin + fees. But I consider it worth it for the expected value at the time. Small losses are okay for an opportunity at big gains.

While I think there is upside left, I am unconvinced that this is a sustainable rally (read: emergence of bull market). Do you recall sentiment when Gox passed $1k ~12/9? I do.

thank you MAbtc. This is a lesson that bears repeating. (hehehe)

The underlined part above rings especially true for me - I try to remember that I am not infallible, and if you remain open-minded, you can sometimes avoid ruin, and instead you only take a $10 haircut.



All I guess I want to say is: don't be afraid to take profit when you're up, and don't be afraid to take a loss when you see the tide turning.

[arepo]

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.

...and your argument implies we can ONLY be in a bull market!
Why is it so hard to believe Bitcoin can have a bear market after 2011? Why not a short-mid-term bear market in the midst of a longer term bull market?
Which upward channel hasn't been broken yet?


It won't be broken if you continue to redraw the channel.
I can do it too! Notice my downtrend channel that is still intact?

[windjc]

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.

Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post.

[windjc]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.

...and your argument implies we can ONLY be in a bull market!
Why is it so hard to believe Bitcoin can have a bear market after 2011? Why not a short-mid-term bear market in the midst of a longer term bull market?
Which upward channel hasn't been broken yet?


It won't be broken if you continue to redraw the channel.
I can do it too! Notice my downtrend channel that is still intact?

Fair point.

Although I think you will have concede that if we expand out far enough we are in a bull market from 2009.  So if both up and down trend lines have been broken, the safe bet might be bull intermediate term.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.

...and your argument implies we can ONLY be in a bull market!
Why is it so hard to believe Bitcoin can have a bear market after 2011? Why not a short-mid-term bear market in the midst of a longer term bull market?
Which upward channel hasn't been broken yet?
[img]snipped...

It won't be broken if you continue to redraw the channel.
I can do it too! Notice my downtrend channel that is still intact?

Fair point.

Although I think you will have concede that if we expand out far enough we are in a bull market from 2009.  So if both up and down trend lines have been broken, the safe bet might be bull intermediate term.

I do agree with the overall bull market since 2009. That is why I was talking about the intermediate bear market within the larger bull market.
To me, there is nothing impulsive about this rise since $455 (Gox). This looks corrective in every way, from the overlapping waves (indecision) to diminishing volume (divergence).

[arepo]

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.

Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post.

please do. and no price targets -- that's a secret but a bottoming out with large volume, with a rapid recovery. a cusp.

oh, hello future forumites!

--arepo

[windjc]

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.

...and your argument implies we can ONLY be in a bull market!
Why is it so hard to believe Bitcoin can have a bear market after 2011? Why not a short-mid-term bear market in the midst of a longer term bull market?
Which upward channel hasn't been broken yet?
[img]snipped...

It won't be broken if you continue to redraw the channel.
I can do it too! Notice my downtrend channel that is still intact?

Fair point.

Although I think you will have concede that if we expand out far enough we are in a bull market from 2009.  So if both up and down trend lines have been broken, the safe bet might be bull intermediate term.

I do agree with the overall bull market since 2009. That is why I was talking about the intermediate bear market within the larger bull market.
To me, there is nothing impulsive about this rise since $455 (Gox). This looks corrective in every way, from the overlapping waves (indecision) to diminishing volume (divergence).

I would love to agree although the volume thing makes me wonder. First volume is not too far from where it was in October AND its been the holidays AND people are comparing the volume to the large run up.

The volume on the 380 candle on Stamp was HUGE.

Volume may increase next week. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Fair point.

Although I think you will have concede that if we expand out far enough we are in a bull market from 2009.  So if both up and down trend lines have been broken, the safe bet might be bull intermediate term.

I do agree with the overall bull market since 2009. That is why I was talking about the intermediate bear market within the larger bull market.
To me, there is nothing impulsive about this rise since $455 (Gox). This looks corrective in every way, from the overlapping waves (indecision) to diminishing volume (divergence).

I would love to agree although the volume thing makes me wonder. First volume is not too far from where it was in October AND its been the holidays AND people are comparing the volume to the large run up.

The volume on the 380 candle on Stamp was HUGE.

Volume may increase next week. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

The thing about the volume is that rising volume confirms a trend. Declining volume during a move is evident of corrective movement. So when you have rising prices on declining volume, it is a divergence that signals a reversal is likely near. It in no way tells the magnitude of a reversal (So I'm not saying single digits), just that a pull back is to be expected. I'm not comparing the volume to the last large rally, but more from the beginning of the rise off $455 to the current conditions.
I also understand that the holidays makes for some slow trading.

This chart will help to explain my point better:

[samurai1200]

This chart will help to explain my point better:
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1388809112632.png

Nice one.

[windjc]

Fair point.

Although I think you will have concede that if we expand out far enough we are in a bull market from 2009.  So if both up and down trend lines have been broken, the safe bet might be bull intermediate term.

I do agree with the overall bull market since 2009. That is why I was talking about the intermediate bear market within the larger bull market.
To me, there is nothing impulsive about this rise since $455 (Gox). This looks corrective in every way, from the overlapping waves (indecision) to diminishing volume (divergence).

I would love to agree although the volume thing makes me wonder. First volume is not too far from where it was in October AND its been the holidays AND people are comparing the volume to the large run up.

The volume on the 380 candle on Stamp was HUGE.

Volume may increase next week. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

The thing about the volume is that rising volume confirms a trend. Declining volume during a move is evident of corrective movement. So when you have rising prices on declining volume, it is a divergence that signals a reversal is likely near. It in no way tells the magnitude of a reversal (So I'm not saying single digits), just that a pull back is to be expected. I'm not comparing the volume to the last large rally, but more from the beginning of the rise off $455 to the current conditions.
I also understand that the holidays makes for some slow trading.

This chart will help to explain my point better:

Yes volume is down. But your arrows point to red candles. Red candles are ALWAYS higher volume because they are capitulation candles.

I still think the jury is out on volume. What will you say if volume increases next week along with price?

[Ducky1]

What screams out to me from your chart is this. I guess we will see.