1522
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculating on the unknown unknowns
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on: December 17, 2015, 02:00:24 AM
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"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know." --hero of the empire Donald Rumsfeld
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1523
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Economy / Speculation / Re: New hype cycle starts at $1000. Everything before that is just a warm-up.
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on: December 16, 2015, 02:46:39 AM
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I am really hoping we can sit on the under 1,000 for at least half a year. I need some time to accumulate extra wealth because once it's over that no way am I getting another BTC through regular means
In my study of history, it seems that markets often have a very sharp crash after strong multiyear year bull trends and then begin recovering after two years. It took about two years for the US stock market to recover after Black Monday (1987) crash. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the tech bubble crash in ~2000.75. It took about two years for the US market to recover from the housing bubble crash in ~2007.75. The Korean stock index (KOSPI) took about two years to recover after the ~1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It was strongly moving up again by 1999. I've looked through many examples and 2 years keeps popping up over and over. 1998 Russian default. So bitcoin has completed its two years since the ~2014.0 crash and now I think there will not be much more time to buy under $1000. These are valid and worthwhile points but personally I don't feel the comparison is warranted. Bitcoin is not similar enough to stocks to compare, as it is a new paradigm; we are really in uncharted territory with it (literally). Even just considering bitcoin is data/energy-wealth and non-tangible whereas stocks represent physical, matter-based assets, for the most part (in generalization across an entire stock market as you suggest).
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1524
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Economy / Speculation / Re: $1k in january
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on: December 16, 2015, 02:41:00 AM
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I'd say that if we hit 1k in January, then we'll likely crash to 200 or 300 right after.
I'm personally hoping the massive booms are over (350%+ in a month say) and instead we are getting into a more mature phase of slow, consistent growth instead.
1k in Jan could happen, but I think it would be even better if we were at a steady $500 instead.
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1525
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price cycles
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on: December 16, 2015, 02:38:21 AM
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Bitcoin is simply not old enough to be able to declare any sort of 900 day cycles going on.
I'd say this is a fallacy, but interesting nonetheless, thanks for posting. But I think this is tantamount to a 4 year old ruminating on how there life has been a periodic and discernible cycle of positive and negative 230 day phases of good food and bad food.
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1526
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Will bitcoin go back to bellow $400?
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on: December 16, 2015, 02:33:29 AM
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We haven't been above 400 that long at all so I think the odds are decent we'll see 330-360 prices again within 2 months. Personally I really hope so, and wish I bought more coins early this year.
I think the market is quite bullish though, and its not a mini bubble now but mostly healthy, natural growth (pumps being a part of this), so I would be surprised if we fell <300, especially with the halving on the horizon and the near-complete fabrication of the funny money world of fiat currency due for another predictable minor spasms of collapse in 2016 in my humble estimation. (When its gets harder and harder to print yourself out of debt, the value of non-fiat assets and currencies will inexorably climb. The Earth is due for a lot more war or at least a couple countries economies crashing as fiscal realities clash with unreal monetary policy in 2016).
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1532
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 02, 2015, 01:50:12 AM
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No doom and gloom here. I think we aren't going below $325 - $330 for the foreseeable future, and will slowly climb to a 'somewhat steady' 360 - 390 range in December with peaks at 420.
I have all the proof in the fancy chart I have here.... oh darn it, looks like I left the chart at home.
But i don't see <300 like a lot of folks seem to in the near future.
But who knows.
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1537
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Economy / Speculation / Re: That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake.
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on: November 17, 2015, 04:49:41 AM
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Personally I'm a big fan of Bitcoin's volatility. There are good places to profit with volatility. Trading in the vast majority of standard stocks are not even close to as interesting. Bitcoin is also open to manipulation, sure. But the manipulation is open to every one For many established securities and traditional investments only the banks and other big players can manipulate it. Bitcoin offers manipulation to the masses haha . Besides, the chaos is fun. I've bought bitcoin as low as $10 a coin and sold as high as a $1000. And all in just a very few years. That's amazing. That's chaos, but I like it. And after I have, on many occasions, made a successful trade for 10% more coins in the space of week (or even a day) it just makes me laugh to consider most people in North America invest in vehicles that pay them 5% a YEAR. Like what a joke, 5% a year is just around the level of inflation. The risk is greater, the potential for loss or reward is greater. I'd take this any day over a typical mutual fund. In short, bring on the chaos. It's really quite something. It's as interesting because we are still very much in the early stages; the wild west.
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1538
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 17, 2015, 04:25:20 AM
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20 billion ? Lol it is far more than that, where did you get that figure?
The first thing that comes to mine is when Donald Rumsfield had that press conference the day before 9 / 11 saying that the Pentagon has 'lost track' of 2.3 trillion dollars.
Or the transport planes full of cash that mysteriously went missing in Iraq.
20 billion of loses isn't much at all in the scheme of how much has been lost over the last few administrations in the U. S of A .
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1539
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: China (Unofficially) Authorizes Bitcoin!
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on: November 04, 2015, 10:33:38 PM
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I posited that ultimately China and BTC are a natural fit, as it provides an unofficial way for China to unwind its USA dollarisation, surplus / debt issue, in a manner that is very hard for the US to take action in any fora about.
Nah that seems completely ridiculous to me. It makes sense at first glance, but look at the numbers and it doesn't hold up for a second. (Compare the entire worth of bitcoin to China's GDP. ) As of me writing this, China's debt is somewhere around 5.3 trillion dollars USD. Bitcoin today, in fiat usd terms, was at around 6.5 billion dollars. You can't compare China's state economics with bitcoin, or federal U.S gov economics with bitcoin, the scales aren't even close to being related.
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