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1381  Economy / Speculation / Re: the China PBOC event explained on: March 28, 2014, 03:26:28 AM

So, in your opinion, why have exchanges continued to operate? Are we to suppose that none of them have a long term business plan? That is hard to believe, especially considering the recent infusion of VC capital into multiple exchanges.

Unless the people running the exchanges are complete idiots, and I assume they are not, what is it that they plan to do?

This, I cannot solve, but I have a theory.

I am speculating that Exchange's CEOs (some of them know me but didn't establish business contact) are simply confused and waiting for their bank managers to tell them that the accounts will be closed soon, meanwhile making backup plans to move to HK. The bank managers, however, was told to hold, and wait for PBOC's new decision. PBOC is watching media and trying to sense if everybody are ready to accept the fate -> Yes = Go on as planned. No = Make new strategy with the same goal. PBOC has a history of clumsy PR management, they are learning it too, so it's hard to predict their move. Notice that this time PBOC started the action (last time 18th Dec 2013, 5-ministry co-operated) so they have more room to change strategy, nevertheless the intention is clear now.

As I said I hope they really enforce it so this will be the last time we got China-ed. If today PBOC is not clarifying like last time, the odds is big
1382  Economy / Speculation / Re: the China PBOC event explained on: March 28, 2014, 02:52:59 AM

One reason for me to think this is not completely true because we have only 2 weeks until the deadline. This won't be enough for people to close the accounts. That will only lead to social unrest which they definitely do not want to see.

Also, if the report is true, people should not be able to deposit now, but it is still available

The notification required closure of 15 companies' accounts, there will be less than 100 accounts to go, there are enough time. And I agree with you that the only thing in doubt is that deposite is still possible. But I will put wage on the professionalism of Caixin this time.

But there must be enough time for traders to get their money back, or that will only lead to "un-harmony". You know what I mean
1383  Economy / Speculation / Re: the China PBOC event explained on: March 28, 2014, 02:45:15 AM
Frankly speaking I hope the ban is true. If that's not true it means we could fall into the same cycle indefinitely. What do you think?

As said, Caixin is the closet thing to "reputable" in China's financial sector. They said they confirmed it, I think hence there are little room to doubt.

One reason for me to think this is not completely true because we have only 2 weeks until the deadline. This won't be enough for people to close the accounts. That will only lead to social unrest which they definitely do not want to see.

Also, if the report is true, people should not be able to deposit now, but it is still available
1384  Economy / Speculation / Re: the China PBOC event explained on: March 28, 2014, 02:20:46 AM
Frankly speaking I hope the ban is true. If that's not true it means we could fall into the same cycle indefinitely. What do you think?
1385  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: I really don't get it.. why were people leaving their coins online @ Gox anyway? on: March 26, 2014, 05:37:24 PM

NO ONE knew Mt.Gox was as toxic as they proved to be.

That's simply ignorant. MtGox has to be blamed, but if you couldn't admit your own fault, you haven't learnt the lesson and you will commit the same fault again.
1386  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: I really don't get it.. why were people leaving their coins online @ Gox anyway? on: March 26, 2014, 04:21:54 PM
Human nature. Fear of losing private keys. Easier. Quicker. Proscrastination. People are accustomed to websites with an account, and banks with an account, not to some paper or USB wallet stored under their sofa.


(source: http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/03/22/just-so-mtgox/)

That's why we need Bitcoin Insurance. To ensure bitcoin put on exchanges up to a certain point, like 200 Bitcoin are the max that can be deposited in a exchange per person and and Not lose incase theres a bankruptcy, similar to banks...

This insurance could work on all alt coins.

With insurance someone has to pay premium. There is no free insurance
1387  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: I really don't get it.. why were people leaving their coins online @ Gox anyway? on: March 26, 2014, 04:06:23 PM
I only learned about Bitcoin late last year so I know I'm late to the game. I bought my first BTC in December from CoinBase. I immediately withdrew it and now keep a few copies in an offline wallet (usb sticks and an external HD). I understand some people 'trade' and things like that, but why did so many people lose coin? What is the advantage of keeping coins on Gox other then trading? Converting back into fiat?

Just curious as to why, after all the security issues and dubious signs of Gox's incompetence did people still trust them to hold their BTC balances that were at one point worth over $1,200/each?

Greed, ignorance, and laziness
1388  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Same Tx interpreted differently by 3 web services on: March 25, 2014, 02:42:20 PM

The http://blockexplorer.com/ one is the most accurate
1389  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: March 25, 2014, 01:43:34 PM
Quick update:

The VWAP on 24 Mar 2014 was 570.13, failed to drop below the long term trend at 558.81. The long-trend trend is still growing at about $3.5 per day.
1390  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pay-to-Revoke using the Bitcoin Network on: March 25, 2014, 09:39:05 AM
aha so you want a collective revoking scheme - eg if a software Company signs malware with their signature, a crowdfunding campain can be started, collecting 2000 BTC and then we can revoke that company's key making the Company unable to spread malware for some time?

Absolutely not. Doing so you are donating 2000BTC to the company signing malware

How should Bitcoin know which bitcoin adress (ECC key) belongs to a specific RSA key/certificate? (and where the Money needs to be sent to revoke the RSA key/certificate)

It doesn't need to. This scheme simply uses the bitcoin network as a distributed timestamping server. You need to announce these information with other method.
1391  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 25, 2014, 02:50:45 AM
148XBT bought yesterday. Monday is usually low
1392  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2014, 06:07:23 PM
The lesson is never put money on an exchange more and longer than really needed

It is good advice for long term investors and people who buy/sell bitcoins for commerce purposes.

As others have observed, however, speculative traders need instant access to their coins with no prior warning; and they seem to be responsible for almost all the trade volume on any exchange, and most of its total account balance.  The exchange, on the other hand, needs to ensure that its clients will honor their sell offers immediately. 



So the lesson is not to day trade, at least until we have a wall-street level exchange
1393  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory's Random Number Generator (Is Armory Broken?) on: March 24, 2014, 06:02:04 PM
If I simply don't trust any computer-generated random number, is it possible for me to use my own random number (e.g. by trowing dice) as deterministic wallet seed?

See post #7 in this thread.

Thanks, so this is a new function. I remember that I have asked the same question 2 year ago.
1394  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory's Random Number Generator (Is Armory Broken?) on: March 24, 2014, 05:50:55 PM
If I simply don't trust any computer-generated random number, is it possible for me to use my own random number (e.g. by trowing dice) as deterministic wallet seed?
1395  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Please Help Test Armory 0.91-beta! on: March 24, 2014, 05:46:50 PM
Does this version (as network connected) still work with old version (as cold storage)?

I guess the old version can't sign P2SH?
1396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2014, 04:04:10 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/krakens-audit-proves-holds-100-bitcoins-reserve/
No fractional reserve goxbux and goxcoins with kraken and bitstamp and that's provable.
Quote
Kraken’s Audit Proves it Holds 100% of All Bitcoins in Reserve
Bitcoin exchange Kraken has passed a cryptographically verifiable proof of reserves audit with flying colours.

The audit, which was carried out by Stefan Thomas on 11th and 22nd of March, proved that more than 100% of Kraken’s bitcoins are held in reserve.

The process was designed to allow the auditor to verify that the total amount of bitcoins held by Kraken matches the amount required to cover an anonymized set of customer balances.
An audit that aims to prove that an exchange is honest cannot assume that it is honest.

There are two easy ways a dishonest exchange could fool such an audit (and they are even mentioned in Greg Maxwell's write-up).

First, the exchange could exclude some customers from the ledger given to the auditor, or list them with reduced balances.  The Merkle tree allows an ordinary customer to verify that his own account was included in the audit; but accounts that belong to the exchange owners or conniving customers (which are suspected to have existed at MtGOX) can be omitted without risk of being caught by this test.

Second, the exchange may have sold the coins to a long-term investor, who, being an accomplice to to a theft, would want to help the exchange pass the audit, and therefore provide whatever proof of bitcoin ownership that the auditor requests -- such as moving the coins in the way specified by the auditor, or some other crytography-based technique.  It seems very difficult, if not impossible, for A to prove to B that A knows the private keys, without revealing the private keys to B, in a way that cannot be simulated by the real owner C and passed off by A as having been done by himself.

I already commented on Coinbases's "audit" by Antonopoulos, which Greg compares to Ver's "audit" of MtGOX, and was flawed on both counts: according to his report, it did not verify that the total balances provided by Bitstamp were accurate (not even by the Merkle tree test above), and relied on the "move your coins" test to verify their holdings.  Bitstamp't "audit" cannot have been better than that.

Greg's paper discusses ways to fix some of those auditing flaws, but the major exchanges do not apply them yet.

In any case, an audit does not guard against the risk of a "100% honest" exchange suddenly folding, with loss of all client bitcoins.  There is currently no way to prove that an alleged hack or key theft was not done by the owners themselves, and (as the MtGOX case shows) there seem to be no effective way for the clients to recover their "stolen" bitcoins, or even to identify them in the blockchain.

Yes, these audit flaws and risks also exist for ordinary public corporations and banks; Enron, Worldcom, Madoff, Lehmann Bros and other famous failures are proof of that.  But traditional audits are much more thorough, and rely on lots of information that is known to many staff members and/or can be independently verified, such as bank statements, payrolls, tax reports and other official records, transactions with suppliers and retailers, and so on.  Moreover, it is much harder for the owners to steal half of the company's assets without being caught and having their loot seized.

And I know of no case where a hacker invaded a bank, stole all of its clients's money, and got away with it.


So? The lesson is never put money on an exchange more and longer than really needed
1397  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 马来西亚总理确认MH370坠毁 on: March 24, 2014, 03:58:13 PM
請不要把無關的新聞都放上來

 机上肯定有人持有比特币 所以这也是一起i比特币坠毁事件

無聊  Angry
1398  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 马来西亚总理确认MH370坠毁 on: March 24, 2014, 03:37:35 PM
請不要把無關的新聞都放上來
1399  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why are private keys safe? on: March 24, 2014, 02:26:30 PM
This is asked every two days. Please search before you ask
1400  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2014, 01:44:04 PM
Anyone know about lakebtc.com?

They have an impressive volume for a new exchange

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

They look very suspicious. In the Chinese forum they always claim they are "coming from Wall Street", and have been "dealing with derivatives 1000 times more complicated than BTC margin trading (offered by OkCoin and Huobi)"

.....

我们LakeBTC华尔街出身,比融资融币复杂1000倍的结构化衍生产品都做过无数,为

......

Maybe they are from wall street?
I wondered cause they operate since march and have a daily Dollar-volume of 4k. No word about them on bitcointalk and reddit, so they need to have some other fiat-sources (supposed they don't fake volume). This sharp rise and the operating outside this community can be a sign they have a direct link to big money

This is very typical Chinese-style bluffing. The now collapsed btc-gbl did in the same way
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