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1501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should we be worried that China is buying so much bitcoin? on: March 02, 2014, 04:12:00 AM
It is only a matter of time till Huobi gets busted on their fake volumes or gets shut down by Chinese authorities. This is similar to how the Gox situation was quite foreseeable.
I don't think the volume there is neccessarily "fake" . I just think that, with the 0 fees there, there's this high frequency trading bot that's getting popular in China and more and more people keep piling in with this bot, which results in the same coins being traded back and forth 20 times per day. This makes the volume irrelevant, but not intentionally deceptive or criminal. So the government wouldn't have anything to do about it. It's just a misfortune that the public looks at this volume and makes more of it than it really is.

This.

And this topic is just like menstruation, but instead of once a month, it's once a day
1502  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling Gavin Andresen and others, possibility of restoring MtGox's coins. on: March 02, 2014, 04:04:55 AM
...

Many people have withdrawn their money since last June. The red flag was there for months. People staying there were either playing with fire, lazy, or simply ignorant.

Although that might be a good idea to regulate bitcoin exchange, that is irrelevant to the bitcoin as a currency or protocol. You don't need an exchange to spend or receive bitcoin.

Many people believed in bitcoin gox and got badly burnt. If you are suggesting that only sophisticated investors should use bitcoin, so be it.


FTFY. And yes, if one do not have half a brain to understand the difference between gox and bitcoin, they should not invest in it.
1503  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling Gavin Andresen and others, possibility of restoring MtGox's coins. on: March 01, 2014, 08:20:03 PM
Bitcoin is supposed to work without the need for a trusted third party. If that were true, we wouldn't be here discussing MK's evil deeds.
Bitcoin works fine without a trusted third party.

Bitcoin users who refrained from trusting any third parties lost exactly zero bitcoins.

Bitcoin promises to let your "be your own bank". If you decide to be your own daytrader then you're on your own.

I agree. However it's a fact that an inordinately large number of people chose to entrust their bitcoins to an unreliable third party such as Mt.Gox. The resulting disaster and those that may follow along the same lines can be tackled either

a) by pointing out , not without reason, that this is a non-issue, since in the bitcoin world it's every man for himself. That's fine , but it may scare off the naive adopter, i.e. the vast majority of people, compromising bitcoin's success.

or

b)  by introducing regulation for exchanges, i.e. turning them into banks, transforming the current bitcoin model into something quite different.

Many people have withdrawn their money since last June. The red flag was there for months. People staying there were either playing with fire, lazy, or simply ignorant.

Although that might be a good idea to regulate bitcoin exchange, that is irrelevant to the bitcoin as a currency or protocol. You don't need an exchange to spend or receive bitcoin.
1504  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [GOX] A consensus network, or how to stop a big lose (fork it!) on: March 01, 2014, 08:14:24 PM
You do understand you will never convince miners to erase 3,000 blocks of the blockchain however if you did, then Bitcoin is done.  Remember over those 3,000 blocks, newly mined coins have been involved in transactions and this action would double spend all of those.  The coins originally minted would never exist and thus the coins spent wouldn't.  Merchants, other users, exchanges would all see the downstream transactions (which have 6 ro 3,000+ confirmations) suddenly go unconfirmed and invalid.

While this in theory could be done at any time it is generally accepted to be impossible.  I mean if miners by decree can double spend transaction not 1 or 2 confirmations into the blockchain but 3,000 then no receiver can EVER be sure that the transaction is irreversible.  There is a certain level of faith in all currencies that create the perception of value, and Bitcoin is no exception.  Among those fauth, users of bitcoin believe that while it is possible in theory to 51% the network and undo transactions thousands of blocks deep, that it would have such an economic cost that it infeasible.  All users accept this faith or they wouldn't be using bitcoin.  Your proposed action (although I think it has no chance) if successful would break that faith.  Without faith in the irreversibility of transactions, there is no value or utility to Bitcoin.  Bitcoin would be dead.  I am not talking the exchange rate goes down a bit and recovers, I mean completely abandoned as a worthless experiment and development moves on to future systems which don't have the vulnerability (likely some floating checkpoint system which acts as a check to the proof of work).

Desperate goxcoin holders want a fork to get their coins back, and what they will get back are worthless coins.
1505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 08:07:32 PM
Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.
They almost certainly exist, so this whole "oh 6% less bitcoins, bitcoin should go up by 1000% because there are 6% less" thing is absolute bullshit.

And the defense of bitcoin doesnt need Gox? No, of course it doesnt need Gox. It needs investor confidence. And the death of Gox just siphoned every drop of it out.

We don't need stupid investors who can't tell the difference between bitcoin and gox. These type of people tend to buy high and sell low, creating a lot of volatility.
1506  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [GOX] A consensus network, or how to stop a big lose (fork it!) on: March 01, 2014, 08:01:11 PM
What you are talking about is an altcoin. Please move to the altcoin forum

No, I am not talking about modifying the protocol, nor maintaining a parallel blockchain. Please read my posts again.


No, this is essentially an alt-coin called goxcoin. The real Bitcoin will go on and no one will ever mine or accept such a stupid coin. Well, maybe you can try to trade it on bitcoinbuilder
1507  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mysterious Transaction to Satoshi on: March 01, 2014, 07:34:45 PM
As far as I know this is Satoshi's account => https://blockchain.info/address/12c6DSiU4Rq3P4ZxziKxzrL5LmMBrzjrJX

I just found this transaction has added some coin to it. Anyone know the source of this transaction as it is sending coins to multiple accounts at a time ?

https://blockchain.info/tx/065ef6b1463f552f675622a5d1fd2c08d6324b4402049f68e767a719e2049e8d

Nothing mysterious. Anyone can send bitcoin to any account

But without reason ? Will u plz send me 0.001 BTC every day ?

Why ask me? You should ask that person. He/she/they might be nice enough to send you some tips.
1508  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling Gavin Andresen and others, possibility of restoring MtGox's coins. on: March 01, 2014, 07:33:12 PM
Let's say that some cryptographic breakthroughs during the next few years allow us to figure out a private key from a bitcoin address in a reasonable amount of time (ie both SHA256 and RIPEMD160 become vulnerable).

By then, the bitcoin software will have been upgraded to work with a different set of hashes and everybody will have sent all their balance from the old, potentially compromised addresses to the new ones. This scenario would mean two things:

- We would be able to know the exact amount of lost coins. All balance that remains in the old addresses could be safely assumed to have been previously lost.
- All those lost coins could be reintroduced back into the system by cracking their private keys (I'll leave aside the subject of how to distribute them among users).

Now, if mtgox hasn't been robbed and the root cause of this situation is that MK lost the private key(s) to the cold wallet(s), we would have a chance to return the coins to their rightful owners without forking the network or minting new coins. We would just rescue those lost coins and put them in circulation again.

Full disclosure: I'm one affected mtgox user.

In such case one can also rob Satoshi's coins. Yes, you will get your bitcoins back, but they will be totally worthless.
1509  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling Gavin Andresen and others, possibility of restoring MtGox's coins. on: March 01, 2014, 07:30:27 PM
If the current Bitcoin model allows a guy like MK to wreak such havoc, then there's something wrong in the current Bitcoin model.

If the current fiat currency model allows you to destroy money by burning banknotes, then there's something wrong in the current fiat currency model.  Roll Eyes
1510  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [GOX] A consensus network, or how to stop a big lose (fork it!) on: March 01, 2014, 04:48:48 PM
What you are talking about is an altcoin. Please move to the altcoin forum
1511  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mysterious Transaction to Satoshi on: March 01, 2014, 03:43:15 PM
As far as I know this is Satoshi's account => https://blockchain.info/address/12c6DSiU4Rq3P4ZxziKxzrL5LmMBrzjrJX

I just found this transaction has added some coin to it. Anyone know the source of this transaction as it is sending coins to multiple accounts at a time ?

https://blockchain.info/tx/065ef6b1463f552f675622a5d1fd2c08d6324b4402049f68e767a719e2049e8d

Nothing mysterious. Anyone can send bitcoin to any account
1512  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling Gavin Andresen and others, possibility of restoring MtGox's coins. on: March 01, 2014, 02:56:07 PM
In the name of Satoshi please stop mentioning a fork here. It makes me feel sick  Angry

If it is just about trying to recover a potentially lost private key, then yes, why not?
1513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: March 01, 2014, 01:17:29 PM
Date: 28-Feb-2014
VWAP: 564.40
x: 1322
a: 0.00605
b: -1.82535
Rsq: 0.87511
The day's expected price: 477.29
Predicted date for today's price: 27-Mar-2014
Days ahead: 27.72
Daily price rank: 98
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 25-Jul-2014

Today's expected price: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00604650351258477++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82535074209542+%29
   
(See OP for explanation)
1514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 11:12:17 AM
Translation: "I have sold at $400. Why doesn't it go below 200?"  Roll Eyes
1515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 08:45:07 AM
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  Roll Eyes

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?
1516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll: Why is China so active (Fiatleak.com) on: March 01, 2014, 08:24:22 AM
This has been discussed a thousand times. It's because they do not charge transaction fee, period.
1517  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Blind Solvency Proof Scheme on: March 01, 2014, 07:23:11 AM
For asset proof I think it could be signed with the root key of a BIP32 deterministic wallet
1518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will customers who have FIAT at Mt. Gox be able to withdraw their FIAT currency? on: March 01, 2014, 06:07:23 AM
I just have ONE question, because this applies to me. I have a lot of eur and usd there, and a little bitcoin, but mostly FIAT!

Will customers who have FIAT at Mt. Gox be able to withdraw their FIAT currency?

So, with 850k bitcoin apparently "missing" - does that mean that I wont get my FIAT back? Are they going to steal my fiat and pay back their creditors with it?
Are all clients going to share the loss, or is it only the bitcoins that are missing that will not be withdrawable? Or will simply all of it, even the bitcoins still there not go back to the customers because they will pay it to the creditors?

I hope someone with a good understanding of all of this stuff, can tell me what is most likely.



They are under bankruptcy protection. No one, not even Mark, could legally move any assets without court's order. You have to wait for a long time to receive anything, if any
1519  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 01, 2014, 06:05:15 AM
I know somebody explained above that computing how many BTC per day they are buying is a "simple math" Wink So I wanted to try, I have a Ph.D. in mathematics, afterall  Grin and could help you to do this great work. I guess some of you have figured out what is this "historical price of bitcoin" - can you please share? I understand that their total market value is # shares times NAV based on this mysterious "historical price"? TIA

Quote
NAV per share for the BIT (capitalized on September 24, 2013) is calculated based on the historical price of bitcoin. If you would like to see how NAV is calculated, please refer to the private placement memorandum.  



The data is updated on their official page every day, and the data for the previous day is removed. So I have to monitor it everyday to compile the table
1520  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Unconfirmed tweet that MtGox lawyer making statement now. on: February 28, 2014, 11:08:22 AM
As claimed in the Crisis plan, they have:

Assets: 32,430,000 USD + 2,000 BTC
Liabilities: 55,000,000 USD + 744,408 BTC

Now they say they have assets of 3.84B JPY = 37.71M USD and liabilities of 6.5B JPY = 63.84M USD

So solving the equations:

32430000 + 2000 A = 37710000

A = 2640 (USD/BTC)


55000000 + 744408 B = 63840000

B = 11.87 (USD/BTC)

So there must be something wrong with the crisis plan figures

I am far from convinced that crisis plan was anything other than a made up crock of shit.

I mean it was claimed to be an internal document but stated in it that "to stop Gox going under (although god knows they deserve to)"

and

on one page the mountain logo of Gox had a goat sat on top of it.

Not convinced by it at all.

But the lawyer really claims that they have lost 750000 customer's coins. Even at $100 each that would be $74M. But now they say their outstanding debt is only $63.84M, including fiat. Just don't add up.

Maybe the outstanding debt has already deducted the assets? That would make the total liability as $101,550,000 and $135.4/BTC, exactly the closing price. (However, this assume they have no fiat liability.....)
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