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We are about to hit the long-term trend line. First time since last October
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If you are into Bitcoin for short term speculation and want to be able to react to the market quickly without having to sell them for a pre-determined amount it makes sense to leave them on the exchange.
Just saying.
Yes, but with a >10x of amount shown on the book is still far too much IMO, especially when gox has all sort of problems |
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Hearing rumors that gox has been bought out, can't confirm.
It could be a good deal if the liability is limited |
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http://zh.scribd.com/doc/209050732/MtGox-Situation-Crisis-Strategy-DraftThis document claims that gox is holding 624408 of customers' BTC. It's like 5% of all existing bitcoin. I think this is ridiculous as there was always less than 50000 on the order book. Why people are storing huge amount of money on gox for nothing? I simply can't believe it. (here I mean the liability, not the actual amount of BTC in gox's wallet)
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If you have other theory, please reply
Yeah. Loads of Bitcoin were stolen. Karpeles realised he was fucked and was going to get dragged through the mud. So he stole the rest before letting his exchange go under with everyone's Geld. 10K whale was Karpeles. Perhaps more of that fun to come. So this fits the last option: There are some criminal insider actions |
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Well, I just find a way to save it.
Let's have a new SIGHASH type called SIGHASH_ANYUTXO. Signing with this tag means that the signer would allow the redemption of any UTXO of the same address. So the signer don't need to specify the hash of the UTXO. The signature is valid no matter how the txid is changed. As long as the signer is not reusing the address, that would be safe.
Any comment?
That's what I've been saying for ages... though it'll have to be implemented as a new CHECKSIG operator due to Satoshi screwing up upgrade possibilities in CHECKSIG. The original CHECKSIG is too bulky and we will need to modularize it in the future. We may also want different types of hashing and public key algorithms. This will enhance the long-term security a lot. |
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Well, I just find a way to save it.
Let's have a new SIGHASH type called SIGHASH_ANYUTXO. Signing with this tag means that the signer would allow the redemption of any UTXO of the same address. So the signer don't need to specify the hash of the UTXO. The signature is valid no matter how the txid is changed. As long as the signer is not reusing the address, that would be safe.
Any comment?
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Forgive me if this has been discussed to death and back, but lately I've been working on some Contracts transactions. The realization that malleability prevents some of these contracts from working (trustlessly and securely) is starting to sink in.
Dependent transactions just can't be built until they're included in the blockchain...
Does tx malleability basically mean that a number of advanced contracts are essentially broken?
1. Providing a deposit - Tx2 can't depend on Tx1 txid not changing. Step 2 sends the hash of Tx1 to the "website" to sign a refund tx.
2. P2P alt-chain trading - Tx2 can't refund Tx1 until it's in the blockchain, but you shouldn't fund Tx1 until Tx2 is signed.
3. Rapidly adjusted micropayments - (Does this hurt bitcoinj's security too?) Can't create refund T2 based on hash of T1.
I'm not interested in MtGox and their usage of transaction hashes, as that's just something they can fix. These advanced contracts, on the other hand, heavily depend on a transaction hash not changing.
I have pointed out the same here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303088.msg5078809#msg5078809I can't see any hope to save it without fixing malleability. Anything depending on zero-confirmation tx is not safe |
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gox price has moved. it's now 131.71 instead of 135
not seeing it on the Android Bitcoinium app btw, still 135 on bitcoinity |
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gox price has moved. it's now 131.71 instead of 135
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Not until you could steal the bitcoin in my donation address
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V
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No.
Nobody is stupid enough to lose 750 000 BTC without noticing it.
That's why one of my choice is Mark having serious mental illness. That would explain it |
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If you have other theory, please reply
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 y-axis is ln(price) Series 1 is the daily VWAP Series 2 is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line. This graph shows that we have experienced a real bear market once only, from 2011 to early 2013. The mid-2013 bear market was basically following the mean great,thanks so,now we are still in a bull-Phase,right? but the data go only to 17/1/2014 The last data point is yesterday, just not shown on the x-axis With this graph, we may even say we are still in a big bull-phase starting from Mar 2013. The price is still >10x than 1 year before, anyway. |
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y-axis is ln(price) Series 1 is the daily VWAP Series 2 is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line. This graph shows that we have experienced a real bear market once only, from 2011 to early 2013. The mid-2013 bear market was basically following the mean |
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Update:
Date: 23 Feb 2014
VWAP = 619.69
x = 1317
a = 0.006044
b = -1.82413
Rsq = 0.873783
Today's expected price = 461.9526
Predicted date for today's price = 12 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 49
Daily price rank = 90
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 25 Jul 2014
(See OP for explanation)
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If this continues we'll be looking at Bitcoin a few months from now as 1 big failed experiment that got ruined by Mark, criminals, inside trading and manipulation. One big ponzi scheme.
The result of non regulation i guess. I wouldn't advise any of my friends anymore to invest in this clusterfuck.
The stuff that's being pulled here makes the real world big bankers and traders look like honest, nice people.
there was even harder times but Bitcoin survived, what is happening now is effecting the price, it may drop really low, some people will lose confidence and cash out and be done with bitcoin, these never believed in Bitcoin anyways, I saw people moving with their lives all the time, everyone has a price... but what is happening now is just the last clearing before Bitcoin goes mainstream, some people have to be pushed out, it will negatively effect the economy for a short term period but we need this to happen for the long term health of Bitcoin. so now you are testing your faith, even you stay or you go out, I can give you an advice, if you want to breath easily and if all of this is stressing you, try to sell some of your coins cash them out do something you wanted to do for so long, go to vacation.... and you will feel much better, I really found that helpful... I really don't know to do anymore. After this bullshit don't see how it will go mainstream anymore. It happens now and what stop it from happening again 6 months from now. Big money will keep using it as a tool to manipulate and crash the market. Over and over again. This won't just magically stop. So please sell all you bitcoin and stay away from it |
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I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.
It's simply because bitcoin worth a lot more now, so people are not taking the risk to put too many on an exchange. The value of the ask wall (in terms of USD) is not that low. |
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Nothing new here. Just a report of what's happening Anyone able to translate chinese.... google translate sucks.... just pulled this from a chinese bitcointalk thread
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Mit.Gox CEO宣布退出比特币基金会 比特币价格继续下跌
Today at 05:54:49 AM
Reply with quote #1
几日前，Mt.Gox被曝将可能面临被关闭的命运。据悉，近段时间出现的一个漏洞导致该平台无法验证比特币交易的唯一性，进而导致刷钱行为出现的可能性。随后，Mt.Gox被迫关闭掉比特币的提现功能来遏制该种威胁。因为这次的事故导致了比特币价格开始出现了下跌。
现在看来，这种消极的情绪在比特币市场中继续蔓延。日前，Mt.Gox CEO宣布退出比特币基金会。比特币基金会是一个致力于监管比特币这种虚拟货币流通的机构。
Coinbase发现了Mt.Gox CEO Mark Karpeles提交的博文。虽然该篇文章并未交代Karpeles离开的真正原因，但是从种种迹象推断，其出走很大可能则是因为Mt.Gox在过去几个月内遭受的技术故障。
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