1. Final Capitulation
We won't know whether a capitulation is final until next bull market (and we won't be sure a bull market has started until the last ATH is broken). So this has no predictive power
2. PBOC policies still stand in China and no new chinese capital has come suddenly flying in as of Jan 31st/Feb8.
PBOC does not ban fiat transfer with banks. Huobi, OKCoin, and BTCChina are now processing deposit and withdrawal through the biggest banks in the country. Obviously these banks know what they are doing.
3. Russian ban.
The only single country that I would really worry about is the US, but a Russian-style ban is unlikely
4. Cyprus issues a bank advisory (like China), which leads to at least the perception that btc-e is at serious risk.
It seems they store money in Czech, not Cyprus:
http://www.coindesk.com/btc-e-recent-issues-caused-surge-users/5. India
Comparing with Russia, this is neglectable
6. Apple removed blockchain app from app store, and the implications that this has about corporate control of what the public eye sees.
Fact: iOS is dying, Android is growing:
http://www.macrumors.com/2014/01/27/iphone-share-strong-android-lead/Removing blockchain app is just one more nail in their coffin
7. Major exchanges were able to flashcrash to $100 (indicates weakness)
And went back to where it was in 2 minutes. The moron who sold to $100 is the only one who got hurt.
8. Flaws on Bitfinex have been exploited, traders on Bitfinex have lost money. The staff at Bitfinex showed themselves as bad at responding to issues and unfit to be running an exchange.
9. The exchanges have had large amounts of funds (millions) stolen from them which could lead to potential insolvency or unethical actions in the future (or at least more mistrust in exchanges).
10. A large loss in confidence and trustworthiness in the existing exchange system, for a variety of reasons.
This is actually getting better. The exchange industry is now oligopoly instead of monopoly
11. The malleability bug and its lasting impact on public trust and confidence in the Bitcoin software even if it gets fixed.
Bugs in traditional transaction platforms are common. By the way, what didn't kill you makes you stronger
12. Loss of trust in bitcoin foundation board members.
Then just let them die.
13. Large amounts of hacker coins, which will eventually be dumped for fiat.
We had plenty of hacker coins since 2010 and the price is >1000x higher now
14. FBI Silk Road coins (27K or 144K) entering the market (somehow).
So FBI will hold an auction with all Silicon Valley VC and Wall Street whales bid the "cleanest" coins ever. I couldn't imagine a more bullish headline than this.
15. Men in florida were arrested and received felony money laundering charges for using localbitcoins. Even if it was really due to credit card fraud, it makes the public scared of using LocalBitcoins and casts a bad light on government perception of Bitcoin.
When you touch fiat, you always need to follow the fiat rules. People will learn the lesson
16. Silk Road 2 closed its escrow service.
The late 2013 bubble was ignited by Silk Road closure, didn't it?
17. Gox started processing cash withdrawals, fiat is actually exiting the system, and many jaded investors are most likely actually leaving the economy altogether.
Is this what you mean?
Not processing cash withdrawals: bearish
Processing cash withdrawals: bearish
18. Btce halted fiat withdrawal.
The market does not think this is a problem as there is no panic and the price on BTC-E is still consistently lower than Bitstamp and Chinese markets.
19. The closure of btc withdrawals by major bitcoin exchanges. (resolved)20. Major indicators on charts that turned down before the gox crash even began.
Just a normal cycle IMHO
21. Gox[/quote]
Show Posts
